原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:雨天不打伞 转载请注明出处
论坛地址:http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-484639-1-1.html

题目:
View: India has a sudden chance to change China'sPakistan math forever

印度突然有机会永远改变中国对巴基斯坦的小算盘



Highlights:
For long, China and Pakistanhave combined to lock India in a negotiation trap.
There’s now an opportunity tocounter this playbook.
The first step is to leveragethe current consensus against terror emanating from Pakistan.
The challenge for India is toconvince the world that Pakistan cannot be part of any solution because it’s atthe heart of the problem.

亮点:
长期以来,中国和巴基斯坦一直将印度困在谈判陷阱中。
现在,我们有机会反击这种做法。第一步是利用目前针对巴基斯坦恐怖主义的共识。
印度面临的挑战是说服世界:巴基斯坦不能成为任何解决方案的一部分,因为它自己就是问题的核心。

正文:
The Balakot air strikes haveprovided a big opening for India, which, if exploited effectively, have thepotential to fundamentally alter the rules of play that have disadvantagedIndia in negotiations not just with Pakistan, but also China.

巴拉科特(Balakot)的空袭为印度提供了一个巨大的机会,如果得到有效利用,有可能从根本上改变游戏规则。这些旧的游戏规则不仅让印度在与巴基斯坦的谈判中处于不利地位,也让印度在与中国的谈判中处于不利地位。



There’s now an opportunity tocounter this playbook. The first step is to leverage the current consensusagainst terror emanating from Pakistan, where the international community is nolonger willing to ratify a distinction between an act of terror in Kashmir andmainland India. Which is why there was no appetite for objecting to Indiaundertaking an anti-terrorist air strike on Pakistani territory.

现在,我们有机会反击这种做法。第一步是利用目前针对巴基斯坦恐怖主义的共识,国际社会已经不再区分克什米尔的恐怖主义行为和印度本土的恐怖主义行为之间的区别。这就是为什么没有哪个国家反对印度对巴基斯坦领土发动反恐空袭。

This shift was best reflectedin the UN Security Council (UNSC) statement on the Pulwama attack. It was rareto have an incident in J&K in which security personnel were killed beingcondemned as an act of terror. This hadn’t happened earlier because Kashmir’s‘disputed’ status came in the way and the UN didn’t want to appear takingsides.

这一转变在联合国安理会关于普尔瓦马(Pulwama)袭击事件的声明中得到了最好的体现。在查谟和克什米尔地区很少有安全人员被杀害的事件被谴责为恐怖行为。这在早些时候并不会这样,因为克什米尔的“争议”地位起了阻碍,而联合国不想表现出偏袒任何一方。

There’s no such inhibitionnow. Even China as UNSC permanent member, despite sending the draft of thestatement back and forth eight times, had to concede to the consensus among theother 14 UNSC members. Significantly, Beijing had to withdraw its objection tothe mention of ‘Jammu & Kashmir’ in the statement, instead of‘Indian-Occupied Kashmir’ or the ‘Indian side of Kashmir’.

现在没有这种抑制了。即使是作为安理会常任理事国的中国,尽管反复发出了8次声明草案,也不得不对安理会其他14个成员国达成的共识做出让步。值得注意的是,北京不得不撤回其对声明中使用“查谟和克什米尔地区”而不是“印控克什米尔”或“克什米尔印方”的反对。

【译注:因为所谓的“查谟和克什米尔地区”包含了我国的阿克赛钦,但是我国不承认阿克赛钦属于克什米尔,也不承认存在领土争议,所以一直拒绝使用所谓的“查谟和克什米尔地区”这个词,而是使用“印控克什米尔”、“巴控克什米尔”代替。】



No Longer Sweet F-16

F-16不会再来了

India has the opportunity tobuild the case that foreign powers supplying weapons to Pakistan must now put acondition that they will not allow their weapons they supply to be deployedagainst India. And, if violated, Pakistan ought to attract a range ofpenalties. Any US action on Pakistan for using F-16s could set a significantprecedent. Which is why India must call for action, and not just denouncement,from the US.

印度有机会证明,向巴基斯坦提供武器的外国势力现在必须提出一个条件,即它们不允许自己提供的武器被用于对抗印度。而且,如果受到侵犯,巴基斯坦应该受到一系列惩罚。美国对巴基斯坦使用F-16战机的任何行动都可能开创一个重要的先例。这就是为什么印度必须要求美国采取行动,而不仅仅是谴责。

Other powers like Russia,France, Britain and the rest of Europe mostly endorse the Indian perception onPakistan’s nourishment to terror groups. While some of them, like the US, maywant to keep the Pakistani army effective against the Taliban, they wouldsurely not like their ordnance strewn on Indian territory. Besides, all thesecountries have an eye on the growing opportunities in the Indian defence market.

俄罗斯、法国、英国和欧洲其他国家大多赞同印度对巴基斯坦滋养恐怖组织的看法。虽然他们中的一些人,比如美国,可能想让巴基斯坦军队有效地打击塔利班,但他们肯定不希望他们的军械散落在印度领土上。此外,所有这些国家都眼馋印度国防市场日益增长所带来的机遇。



The challenge for India is toconvince the world that Pakistan cannot be part of any solution because it’s atthe heart of the problem, one that has to be addressed collectively. And, inthat context, continuous pressure must also be brought on China to reassess itsterms of engagement with Pakistan. In short, there’s much to be done beyondBalakot to translate this action into strategic gains, rather than just quarrelover spoils.

印度面临的挑战是说服世界:巴基斯坦不能成为任何解决方案的一部分,因为它自己就是问题的核心。因此必须合力解决。在这种背景下,还必须不断向中国施压,要求其重新评估与巴基斯坦的战略协议。简而言之,除了巴拉科特空袭,还需要做很多事情把这一行动转化为战略收益,而不是仅仅为了战利品而争吵。