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On the 26th, Indian warplanes entered Pakistani airspace and claimed that the purpose was to combat terrorist organizations in response to previous terrorist attacks on Indian police in Kashmir. Pakistan condemned the move and said it reserved the right to fight back at any time and place. Indian officials say at least three Pakistani fighter jets entered Kashmir on the 27th and were later intercepted by Indian troops. According to Pakistan's "Dawn" news, the Pakistani military said that in Kashmir, two Indian aircraft were shot down, an Indian pilot was captured.

26日,印度战机曾进入巴基斯坦领空,并宣称目的是为了打击恐怖组织,以回应此前印度警察在克什米尔遭受的恐怖袭击。巴基斯坦对此举表示谴责,并称保留在任何的时间和地点回击的权力。
印度官方表示,27日至少3架巴基斯坦战斗机进入克什米尔地区,之后被印军升空拦截。另据巴基斯坦《黎明报》消息,巴基斯坦军方表示,在克什米尔有2架印度飞机被击落,1名印度飞行员被俘。

India and Pakistan are in the throes of the most serious military standoff between them since 2002. After years of absorbing terror attacks conceived by non-state groups based on Pakistani soil, India decided enough was enough after a February 14 vehicle-borne improvised explosive device killed forty paramilitary personnel. its response? An airstrike on what it claimed was a camp run by Jaish-e-Mohammed, the group that claimed the attack, on Pakistani soil.

印度和巴基斯坦正在经历2002年以来最严重的军事对峙。印度多年来一直在巴基斯坦领土上遭受着非国家组织策划的恐怖袭击。2月14日,一枚车载简易爆炸装置炸死40名准军事人员,印度认为已经够了。它的回应呢?这次空袭的目标是穆罕默德军在巴基斯坦境内的一个营地,该组织声称发动了之前的袭击。



On Wednesday, Pakistani escalation followed across the Line of Control after Pakistan Air Force F-16s conducted strikes of their own. Both sides again presented battling narratives about what sort of targets were struck, with Pakistan trying to make clear that its response was proportional retaliation for India’s strikes. An Indian official statement, meanwhile, stated that while the Pakistani fighters targeted “military installations,” they had been “foiled successfully.”

星期三,巴基斯坦空军F -16战机进行了他们自己的攻击后,巴基斯坦越过控制线,局势升级。双方再次就袭击了哪些目标展开了激烈的争论,巴基斯坦试图表明,它的回应是对印度袭击的适当报复。与此同时,印度发表的一份官方声明说,尽管巴基斯坦武装分子以“军事设施”为目标,但他们“成功将其挫败了”。

One complicating factor was the loss of Indian aircraft in the exchange on Wednesday. One Indian Air Force pilot, forced to ditch his MiG-21 fighter, was taken into Pakistani custody. Pakistan’s military released footage showing the pilot in good health—presumably to ward off criticisms that had followed of the mistreatment of Indian pilots during the 1999 Kargil War.
The Indian acknowledgment that Pakistan targeted “military installations” in retaliation for New Delhi’s calibrated “non-military” strike will increase pressure on the Indian government to now retaliate in turn. That’d make a third round of escalation, raising the possibility of an all-out spiral that’d quickly risk taking the two countries close to the low nuclear threshold that exists between them thanks to Pakistan’s aggressive nuclear strategy and battlefield nuclear weapons.

一个复杂的因素是,印度飞机在周三的交火中失事。一名印度空军飞行员被迫放弃米格-21战斗机,被巴基斯坦拘留。巴基斯坦军方公布的录像显示,这名飞行员身体状况良好,这大概是为了避免1999年卡吉尔战争期间印度飞行员受到虐待的批评。
印度承认,巴基斯坦以“军事设施”为目标,以报复新德里精心策划的“非军事”打击,这将加大印度政府现在采取报复行动的压力。这将导致第三轮冲突升级,从而加大全面升级的可能性,因为巴基斯坦咄咄逼人的核战略和战场上的核武器,全面升级有可能迅速使两国接近低核门槛。



Other possible avenues by which the crisis may be de-escalated include the intervention of third powers. The United States is distracted with the ongoing summitry in Hanoi, Vietnam, and China and Russia are each seen as too partisan to Pakistan and India respectively. Numerous nations have issued statements calling on both sides to practice restraint, in the meantime.
Whatever happens next rests in the hands of political decisionmakers in India. This conflict can find an off-ramp, but it must come quickly. Above all, national strategy cannot be allowed to fall victim to the passions of domestic constituencies all too eager to march toward a ruinous and likely uncontrollable war, assuming it will remain under the nuclear threshold.

危机可能降级的其他可能途径包括第三大国的干预。在河内举行的峰会分散了美国的注意力。中国和俄罗斯分别被认为过于偏袒巴基斯坦和印度。与此同时,许多国家发表声明,呼吁双方保持克制。
接下来发生的一切都掌握在印度政治决策者的手中。这种冲突可以找到出路,但必须尽快到来。最重要的是,不能让国家战略成为国内选民激情的牺牲品,这些选民太急于走向一场毁灭性的、可能无法控制的战争,前提是战争仍将处于核门槛之下。