每人一小段,翻译我也行!
每日新素材,等你来认领!
http://www.ltaaa.com/translation.html

-------------译者:散夜-审核者:龙腾翻译总管------------



【图中纵轴为“中国总人口”(浅色区域为预测值),横轴为“年份”。图中标注为10亿人口水平线。】

Chinese academics recently delivered a stark warning to the country’s leaders: China is facing its most precipitous decline in population in decades setting the stage for potential demographic economic and even political crises in the near future.

中国学者最近发出了严厉警告:中国正面临几十年来最急剧的人口下降局面,这为不远将来潜在的人口、经济等埋下了伏笔。

For years China’s ruling Communist Party implemented a series of policies intended to slow the growth of the world’s most populous nation including limiting the number of children couples could have to one. The long term effects of those policies mean the country will soon enter an era of “negative growth” or a contraction in the size of the total population.

多年以来,中国实施了一系列旨在减缓其这个世界上人口最多国家的人口增长的政策,...(略译)。这些政策的长期影响意味着中国很快会进入人口“负增长”时代,总人口规模缩小。



【图中纵轴为“人口年增长率”(红色区域为预测值),横轴为“年份”。图中标注分别为“三年自然灾害(大饥荒)”(左一)、“'晚、稀、少'政策提出”(左二)、“独生子女政策提出”(中)、“独生子女政策写入宪法”和二孩政策提出”(右一)。数据来源:美国人口普查国际数据库。】

ltaaaTxt

The government has recognized the worrisome demographic trend and in 2013 began easing enforcement of the “one child” policy in certain circumstances. It then raised the limit to two children for all families in 2016 in hopes of encouraging a baby boom. It did not work.

中国已经认识到这个令人不安的人口趋势,并从2013年开始在某些情况下放宽执行“独生子女”政策。其后,在2016年对所有家庭全面开放二孩政策以鼓励婴儿潮,但并没有奏效。



【图中纵轴为“妇女生育率”(浅色区域为预测值),横轴为“年份”。图中标注分别为“独生子女政策提出”(左)和“二孩政策提出”(右)。数据来源:世界银行;美国人口普查国际数据库。】

After a brief uptick that year the birth rate fell again in 2017 with 17.2 million babies born compared to 17.9 in 2016. Although the number of families having a second child rose the overall number of births continued to drop.

在经过一年的短暂上升后,2017年的出生率再次下降,新生儿数量是1720万,而在2016年是1790万。虽然生二孩的家庭数量有增加,但总出生数持续下降。

According to preliminary official figures cited by The Global Times a party-run newspaper the total number of births for 2018 could fall to as low as 15 million. Some cities and provinces have reported declines in local birth rates of as much as 35 percent.

根据《环球时报》引用初步官方数据,2018年的总出生人数可能会降至1500万。一些城市和省份报告当地出生率下降了多达35%。



【图中纵轴为“新生儿数量(单位:百万)”(下部区域为第一胎占比,中部区域为第二胎占比,上部区域为其他),横轴为“年份”。图中标注分别为“二孩政策下预测值”(上)和“独生子女政策下预测值”(下)。注:基于中等生育率转变。数据来源:中国国家统计局;《实施全面两孩政策人口变动测算研究》,王培安,国家卫生和计划生育委员会】

-------------译者:散夜-审核者:龙腾翻译总管------------

The fertility rate required to maintain population levels is 2.1 children per woman a figure known as “replacement level fertility.”

维持人口水平所需的生育率为每名妇女2.1个孩子,这一数字被称为“生育更替水平”。

(译注:生育更替水平是指这样一个生育水平,即同一批妇女生育子女的数量恰好能替代她们本身以及她们的伴侣,当净人口再生产率为1.00时,恰好等于更替水平。)

ltaaaTxt

Yi Fuxian a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison has written that China’s government has obscured the actual fertility rate to disguise the disastrous ramifications of the “one child” policy. According to his calculations the fertility rate averaged 1.18 between 2010 and 2018.

威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校的教授易富贤写道:“中国掩盖了实际的生育率以掩饰“独生子女”政策的灾难性后果。根据他的计算,2010年到2018年间中国的生育率平均为1.18。



【图为2017年各国生育率(从左往右递增)。分别为:新加坡、韩国、日本、中国、美国、(生育更替水平)、印度、菲律宾、尼日尔】

ltaaaTxt

Chinese women born during the years following the “one child” policy are now reaching or have already passed their peak fertility age. There are simply not enough of them to sustain the country’s population level despite new efforts by the government to encourage families to have two children.

在实行“独生子女”政策后出生的中国妇女现在已经达到或已经过了其生育高峰年龄。虽然中国为鼓励家庭生育两个孩子做出了新的努力,但仅靠她们还不足以维持国家的人口水平。



【图中纵坐标为“人口数量(单位:百万)”,灰色区域为2015年水平,红色区域为预测2050年水平,横坐标为“年龄”,图中标注分别为“20到40岁的女性人口将下降35%以上”(左)和“到2050年3000多万女性将超过84岁”(右)】

-------------译者:jsdanxtandkao-审核者:龙腾翻译总管------------

The looming demographic crisis could be the Achilles heel of China’s stunning economic transformation over the last 40 years.

迫在眉睫的人口危机可能是中国过去40年惊人经济转型的致命弱点。

ltaaaTxt

Many compare China’s demographic crisis to the one that stalled Japan’s economic boom in the 1990s.

许多人将中国的人口危机与上世纪90年代阻碍日本经济繁荣的那场危机相提并论。



Some experts believe the population has already started shrinking. In a recent paper Dr. Yi and Su Jian an economist at Peking University argued that the population contracted in 2018 the first year it has done so since the famines of 1961 and 1962 induced by the Great Leap Forward Mao’s industrialization campaign. The researchers said inaccurate census estimates had obscured the actual population and fertility rates.

一些专家认为中国的人口已经开始减少。在最新的一篇论文中,易富贤博士和北京大学经济学家苏建认为,中国人口在2018年出现了减少,这是自1961年和1962年以来,中国人口首次出现减少。研究人员表示,不准确的人口普查统计掩盖了实际的人口和生育率。

“It can be seen that 2018 is a historic turning point in China’s population” Dr. Yi wrote in an email. “China’s population has begun to decline and is rapidly aging. Its economic vitality will keep waning.”

“可以看出,2018年是中国人口的一个历史性转折点,”易博士在一封电子邮件中如此写道,“中国的人口已经开始下降,且正迅速老龄化。中国的经济活力将继续减弱。”