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Israel Must Accept that the U.S. Will NoLonger Police the Middle East

以色列必须承认,美国将不再是中东的警察



It is possible to understand the almosthysterical reactions among members of the Israeli political establishment andits media outlets to President Donald Trump’s decision to evacuate 2,000American soldiers from Syria.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)决定从叙利亚撤出2000名美国士兵,以色列政界人士及其媒体对此反应近乎歇斯底里,这是可以理解的。

The Americans have betrayed the Kurds! This was a win forIran and a victory for Russia! It would lead to the disintegration of Syria andto chaos in the Middle East! Israel would now be left alone without Americanprotection! And, hey, we told you long ago that deep in his heart the Donald isan anti-Semite!

美国人背叛了库尔德人!这是伊朗的胜利,也是俄罗斯的胜利!它将导致叙利亚的解体和中东的混乱! 如果没有美国的保护,以色列现在将会孤立无援!
嘿,我们很久以前就告诉过你,在唐纳德的内心深处,他是一个反犹主义者!

After all, the political decisions in the capital of theAmerican Empire could affect the status of Israel and the other Middle Easternprovinces. Even the French are concerned, not to mention the strategic geniusesat the Pentagon, the State Department, and the other centers of power ofAmerican foreign and defense policy — including retired Secretary of DefenseJames Mattis.

毕竟,美利坚帝国首都的政治决策可能会影响以色列和其他中东省份的地位。
就连法国人也感到担忧,更不用说五角大楼、国务院以及美国外交和国防政策的其他权力中心的战略天才了——包括退休的国防部长詹姆斯·马蒂斯。

These best and brightest were the ones who pushed theUnited States, with the support of neoconservative commentators and liberalinternationalists in opinion pages of the mainstream media and think tanks inWashington, into the military marshes between the Euphrates and the Tigris andthe Hindu-Kush mountains.

正是这些最优秀、最聪明的人,在主流媒体和华盛顿智库观点页面上的新保守主义评论员和自由国际主义者的支持下,把美国推进了幼发拉底河、底格里斯河和兴都库什山脉之间的军事沼泽。

After fifteen years — the longest war in American history— American soldiers are still stuck in Afghanistan, and now the failedarchitects of the wars in the Greater Middle East and the plans to do regimechange, nation build and establish democracy in Iraq and Libya are trying todrag the United States into a new military adventure in Syria. And God forbid,that idiot occupying the White House refuses to buy the goods. What a Chutzpah!

十五年后——美国历史上最长的战争——美国士兵仍被困在阿富汗,如今,大中东地区战争的失败策划者,以及在伊拉克和利比亚进行政权更迭、国家建设和民主建立的计划,正试图将美国拖入叙利亚的一场新的军事冒险。
然而上帝保佑,那个占领白宫的白痴拒绝为此埋单。多么肆无忌惮!

The American political elite will always refuse to say“no” to wars. Columnist Andrew Sullivan wrote in New York magazine, describing the senseof the Apocalypse Now that has taken control of Washington after the Americansdecided to bid farewell to the Kurds, Druze, Shiites Sunnis and the otherexotic tribes and gangs in the Levant. Bye, bye, and have a nice day!

美国的政治精英将永远拒绝对战争说“不”。 专栏作家安德鲁·沙利文在《纽约杂志》撰文,描述了《现代启示录》中的感觉,美国人在决定告别库尔德人、德鲁兹人(Druze)、什叶派逊尼派(sunni)以及黎凡特其他外来部落和帮派后,笼罩华盛顿的那种末日感。再见,再见了,祝你有美好的一天!

After the United States invested $6 trillion in wars inthe Middle East, shattered the balance of power in the region, bolstered Iran’sposition and encouraged radicalism in the Arab world — without even getting aT-shirt in return — President Trump, like his predecessor in office BarackObama, rejected the advice of the Washington “blob” to produce a sequel to theIraq movie in Syria, which could have led to military conflicts with theRussians and the Iranians.

美国在中东的战争中投入了6万亿美元,打破了该地区的权力平衡,巩固了伊朗的地位,鼓励了阿拉伯世界的激进主义——报酬却连一件体恤衫都没有——特朗普总统和他的前任巴拉克·奥巴马一样,拒绝了华盛顿“权力集团”(blob)关于在叙利亚拍摄伊拉克电影续集的建议。这部电影可能会导致美国与俄罗斯和伊朗的军事冲突。

The bottom line is that, like most Americans livingoutside of Washington bubble, Trump and Obama understood that the Cold Warended long ago and that Russia was not “like” the Soviet Union; that the UnitedStates, not Saudi Arabia, was the largest oil producer in the world; and thatthe outcomes of intertribal and inter-sectarian struggles in the Muslim worldwill have a marginal impact on U.S. national security interests.

底线是,就像大多数生活在华盛顿泡沫之外的美国人一样,特朗普和奥巴马明白冷战早已结束,俄罗斯也不是苏联; 美国,而不是沙特阿拉伯,是世界上最大的石油生产国;穆斯林世界部落间和宗派间斗争的结果将对美国的国家安全利益产生微弱的影响。

Why do Americans need to care about who wins theSunni-Shiite struggle, or why should Washington invest its resources in tryingto oust Bashar Assad or to seek a solution acceptable to Benjamin Netanyahu,Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas — when at the top of the American Agenda is need tocurb China’s military and economic power which evolved at the time when Americawas stuck in the Middle East.
The problem is that the worldview of those who manage andinterpret Israeli foreign policy in recent decades has developed at a time whenit was common to think that Americans have no choice but to “do something” when“something” happens in the Middle East.

当美国的首要议程是需要遏制中国的军事和经济实力时(中国的军事和经济实力是在美国陷入中东困境时发展起来的),为什么美国人需要关心谁在逊尼派和什叶派的斗争中获胜,或者为什么华盛顿应该投入资源试图推翻巴沙尔·阿萨德,或者寻求本杰明·内塔尼亚胡、马哈茂德·阿巴斯和哈马斯都能接受的解决方案?

The problem is that the worldview ofthose who manage and interpret Israeli foreign policy in recent decades hasdeveloped at a time when it was common to think that Americans have no choicebut to “do something” when “something” happens in the Middle East.

问题在于,近几十年来,那些管理和解读以色列外交政策的人的世界观形成之时,人们普遍认为,当中东发生“某些事情”时,美国人别无选择,只能“做些什么”。

After all, if the American president did not abandon allhis internal and external problems and concentrate on solving the last crisisin the region, a nuclear war will erupt between Washington and Moscow. TheSaudis will impose an oil embargo. And the Jewish state will cease to exist.

毕竟,如果美国总统不放弃他所有的内部和外部问题,集中精力解决该地区的最后一场危机,华盛顿和莫斯科之间将爆发核战争。沙特将实施石油禁运。犹太国家将不复存在。

That was then. The message now being conveyed by Trump isthat if the Israelis, the Saudis and the Turks — two regional military powersand one of the richest economies in the world — worry so much about what ishappening in Syria, well, they should take care of it instead of phoning theWhite House.

然而现在的特朗普传达出的信息是:如果以色列,沙特和土耳其——两个地区军事力量以及一个世上最富裕的经济体——如此担心叙利亚正在发生的事情的话,好啊,那他们应该多关心关心这事儿,而不是老给白宫打电话。

And perhaps the time has come for the Europeans, whoseMiddle East is their strategic backyard, to finance Syria’s economicrehabilitation or to increase their military budgets in response to the Iraniannuclear threat.

或许,作为其战略后院的中东地区的欧洲人,是时候为叙利亚的经济复苏提供资金,或者增加军事预算,以应对伊朗的核威胁。

And would it be so terrible if, instead of the Americans,it would be the Russians who would sink into the Syrian swamp while trying tobalance the interests of the Israelis, the Iranians and Assad?

如果不是美国人,而是俄罗斯人在试图平衡以色列人、伊朗人和阿萨德的利益时,陷入叙利亚的泥潭,情况会如此糟糕吗?

As for the possibility of a war between Turkey and Syria,it is not nice to say, but the long war between Iran and Iraq ended up helpingto advance the interests of Israel and the United States.

至于土耳其和叙利亚之间爆发战争的可能性,不好说,但伊朗和伊拉克之间的长期战争最终帮助推进了以色列和美国的利益。

Israeli decision-makers must leave their own bubble andface the anticipated changes in the status of the United States in the MiddleEast, and understand that Trump’s policy, like that of all his predecessors, isnot “pro-Israel” or “anti-Israel,” but mainly pro-American.

以色列的决策者必须离开他们自己的泡沫,面对美国在中东地位预计将发生的变化,并明白特朗普的政策,就像他所有的前任一样,不是“亲以色列”或“反以色列”,而是基本上亲美。

The British Labor government was waging a campaignagainst the establishment of the State of Israel after World War II not becauseBritish Foreign Secretary Ernest Bevin was an anti-Semite, but because itadvanced policies aimed at preserving British interests in the Middle East andcontaining Soviet expansionis.

英国工党政府在二战后发动了一场反对以色列建国的运动并不是因为英国外交大臣欧内斯特·贝文是一个反犹主义者,而是因为它推进了旨在维护英国在中东利益、遏制苏联扩张主义的政策。

In the 1950s, the status of the China Lobby, whichdefended Formosa’s interests (today Taiwan) against Communist China, was at thepeak of its power, and one of its leading spokesmen was Congressman Richard Nixonof California. In the 1960s, the United States changed direction in favor ofBeijing, abandoning Taiwan, and guess who was driving that policy? PresidentRichard Nixon.

20世纪50年代,中国游说团体的地位达到顶峰,他们捍卫台湾的利益,反对GC主义的中国大陆,其主要发言人之一是来自加州的国会议员理查德·尼克松。
在20世纪60年代,美国转而支持北京,放弃台湾,猜猜是谁推动了这一政策?总统理查德·尼克松。

Interests change, relations change and what happens inEast Asia could happen in the Middle East in the future. Israel should preparefor the day after when Washington’s ability to promote Israeli interests wouldbe limited, even if the president sitting in the Oval Office has Einstein’s IQ.

利益改变,关系改变,东亚发生的事情在未来也可能发生在中东。以色列应该为华盛顿促进以色列利益的能力受到限制的那一天做好准备,即使坐在椭圆形办公室里的总统拥有爱因斯坦那样的智商。

Just as the Israeli left and its supporters in Washingtonmust not live in the illusion that today’s America will “save Israel fromitself” and impose a political settlement on it, the Israeli right and itsAmerican friends must recognize that American hegemony in the Middle East hascome to an end and that Israel will solve its problems with Syria, Iran, Turkeyand Russia—not to mention the Palestinians—on its own.

正如以色列的左派及其在华盛顿的支持者不能生活在幻想中,认为今天的美国将“把以色列从自身中拯救出来”,并将政治解决强加给它一样,以色列右翼及其美国盟友必须认识到,美国在中东的霸权已经结束,以色列将自己解决与叙利亚、伊朗、土耳其和俄罗斯(更不用说巴勒斯坦人)之间的问题。

Under the best-case-scenario, Americans can use theirdiplomatic power to help reach an agreement with the Palestinians and withtheir military power to help Israel curb the Iranians. But in the end, Israel,you are on your own!

在最好的情况下,美国人可以利用他们的外交力量帮助与巴勒斯坦人达成协议,并利用他们的军事力量帮助以色列遏制伊朗人。但最终,以色列,你只能靠自己了!

Leon Hadar is a senior analyst with Wikistrat, a geostrategic consultingfirm and author of Sandstorm:Policy Failure in the Middle East .

LeonHadar是Wikistrat的高级分析师,Wikistrat是一家地缘战略咨询公司,也是《沙尘暴:中东政策的失败》一书的作者。