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Welcome to War in the 21st Century

欢迎来到21世纪的战争



Austi Bay, Cocktails from Hell: Five Complex Wars Shaping the 21stCentury (NewYork: Bombardier, 2018), 208 pp., $24.00.

《来自地狱的鸡尾酒:塑造21世纪的五场复杂战争》(纽约:庞巴迪出版社,2018),208页,24美元。

Ifyou’re looking forward to a good night’s rest, don’t even think about crackingopen Cocktails from Hell, by military veteran and columnistAustin Bay. If you can get to sleep at all, it’s bound to give you nightmares.

如果你想好好休息一晚,千万不要想着喝上一杯由退伍军人、专栏作家奥斯汀·贝(Austin Bay)写/调制的鸡尾酒。如果你能睡着,那肯定会让你做噩梦。

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Those selections reflect Bay’s realism, nota lack of imagination. Little noticed in the our daily outrage over Trumpianforeign policy is that the current president’s list of bad guys is virtually acarbon copy of that held by his two predecessors. That’s not coincidence.Rather, it’s the emerging post–Cold War consensus that these are the powerswith the method, opportunity and means to seriously disrupt the globalinternational order.

这些选择反映了贝的现实主义,而不是缺乏想象力。在我们每天对特朗普外交政策的愤怒中,几乎没有人注意到,现任总统的坏蛋名单实际上是他的两位前任的翻版。这并不是巧合。相反,冷战后正在形成的共识是,这些国家拥有严重破坏全球国际秩序的方法、机会和手段。

Though the United States is not the world’spoliceman, it is a global power with global interests and globalresponsibilities. And that means it is as likely to bump heads with any powerwith serious ambitions to upset the global status quo. Hence, only the mostnaïve or obtuse analyst would suggest anything other than paying a lot ofattention of what a conflict with these powers might look like.
Hats off to Bay for delivering aclear-headed, accessible primer on the forces and factors that might impact ashooting war. Bay is no optimist. That’s because he reasons that the UnitedStates does not hold all the cards when it comes to conventional conflict.

虽然美国不是世界警察,但它是一个拥有全球利益和全球责任的全球大国。这意味着,它很可能与任何有颠覆全球现状的野心的大国发生冲突。因此,只有最天真、最迟钝的分析师才会建议,不要过多关注与这些大国的冲突可能会是什么样子。向贝致敬,因为他提供了一份头脑清晰、易于理解的关于可能影响一场枪战的力量和因素的入门读物。贝并不乐观,因为他认为,在传统冲突中,美国并不是万能的。

It’s aview backed up by realistic assessments of U.S. military power. Even thoughTrump has invested in bumping up readiness during the first two years of hisadministration, America still doesn’t have an adequate force to do everythingthat needs doing. That assessment, articulated earlier this year in TheHeritage Foundation’s Index of U.S. Military Strength , was recentlyvalidated by a bipartisan Congressional commission assessing U.S. defensestrategy .

这一观点得到了对美国军事实力的现实评估的支持。尽管特朗普在他的政府的头两年投入了大量精力提高战备水平,但美国仍然没有足够的力量去做所有需要做的事情。今年早些时候,美国传统基金会的美国军事实力指数明确提出了这一评估。最近,一个评估美国国防战略的跨党派国会委员会证实了这一评估。

But before you dash to the bomb shelterwith Cocktails from Hell in hand, it is worth rememberingthat Bay is not arguing that war is inevitable. Indeed, if there is one commonelement of strategy shared by Beijing, Pyongyang, Moscow and Tehran, it’s thateach of these four would-be horsemen of America’s apocalypse would like to winwithout fighting.

但在你手里拿着鸡尾酒冲进防空洞之前,值得记住的是,贝并不是说战争是不可避免的。事实上,如果说北京、平壤、莫斯科和德黑兰有一个共同的战略元素,那就是这四位美国末日的准骑士都希望不战而胜。

They realize that wars aren’t healthy forthem, either. Each would prefer to accomplish its goals without coming in todirect conflict with the United States. Nobody wants World War III.

他们意识到战争对他们也没好处。双方都希望在不与美国发生直接冲突的情况下实现自己的目标。没有人想要第三次世界大战。

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A Heritage Foundation vice president, James Jay Carafano directs thethink tank’s research on issues of national security and foreign relations.

美国传统基金会副主席詹姆斯·杰伊·卡拉法诺——负责该智库对国家安全和外交关系问题的研究。(注:看起来像同行之间的日常相互吹捧—,—)