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JPMorgan Cuts China Stocks on Risks of Full-Blown Trade War

全面贸易战下美国民众对中美经济和股市的讨论 上
摩根大通因全面贸易战的风险减持中国股票



The likelihood of a “full-blown trade war" next year between the world’s two largest economies made JPMorgan Chase & Co. the latest brokerage to drop its bullish call on Chinese stocks.

全球最大的两个经济体明年可能爆发一场“全面贸易战”,这使得摩根大通成为最新一家放弃对中国股市看涨呼声的券商。

The trade conflict will only escalate as the U.S. maxes out tariffs on Chinese imports, the dollar strengthens and the yuan weakens further, JPMorgan strategists including Pedro Martins Junior, Rajiv Batra and Sanaya Tavaria wrote in a report, lowering their recommendation on China to neutral . With mainland markets shut all week for a holiday, the $4.9 billion iShares China Large-Cap ETF dropped to a two-week low in New York.

随着美国对中国进口产品征收最高关税,美元走强,人民币进一步贬值,贸易冲突只会升级。包括佩德罗·马丁斯、拉吉夫·巴特拉和萨那亚 塔瓦利亚在内的摩根大通策略分析师在一份报告中写道,他们对中国的推荐降到中性。中国内地股市因放假休市一周,纽约市场价值49亿美元的中国大盘股ETF跌至两周低点.

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JPMorgan revised its forecast for economic growth in China next year to 6.1 percent from 6.2 percent. Without accounting for countermeasures, the trade war represents a 1 percentage point dent to growth, the strategists said.

摩根大通将其对明年中国经济增长的预测从6.2%修正为6.1%。策略师们说,如果不考虑对策,这场贸易战将对经济增长造成1个百分点的影响。

"Higher tariffs are squeezing Chinese manufacturing’s profit margin, reducing the investment incentive and hiring, which would then drag on consumption via reduced income," they wrote.

他们写道:“更高的关税正在挤压中国制造业的利润率,减少投资热情和雇佣员工,这将通过减少收入拖累消费。”