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A support vessel flying an Iranian national flag sails alongside the oil tanker 'Devon' as it prepares to transport crude oil to export markets in Bandar Abbas, Iran, on Friday, March 23, 2018. Geopolitical risk is creeping back into the crude oil market. Photographer: Ali

2018年3月23日星期五,一艘飘着伊朗国旗的辅助船在“德文号”油轮旁边行驶,它准备把原油运到伊朗阿巴斯港的出口市场去。地缘政治风险将再次威胁到这个市场。

The U.S. has been unable to persuade China to cut Iranian oil imports, according to two officials familiar with the negotiations, dealing a blow to President Donald Trump’s efforts to isolate the Islamic Republic after his withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear accord.

据两名了解美中谈判的官员说,美国没能说服中国切断从伊朗的石油进口,这打击了特朗普退出了2015年的伊朗核协议之后试图孤立这个伊斯兰国家的企图。

Beijing has, however, agreed not to ramp up purchases of Iranian crude, according to the officials, who asked not to be identified because discussions with China and other countries continue. That would ease concerns that China would work to undermine U.S. efforts to isolate the Islamic Republic by purchasing excess oil.

但是,据这两名官员称,北京同意了不增加对伊朗原油的采购量。这两名官员要求不要公开他们的身份,因为与中国和其他国家的谈判还在继续。这将减轻美国对中国的担忧,因为美国担心中国会从伊朗购买过量的石油从而破坏美国孤立伊朗的努力。

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Unfazed, the administration has warned that even allies would face sanctions if they didn’t show “significant” progress in reducing Iranian oil purchases by Nov. 4, ruling out broad exemptions or waivers.

特朗普政府警告,如果在11月4日之前不大大减少对伊朗石油的采购,就算是盟友也将面临制裁,会在很大程度上失去免税或豁免资格。

Reducing Purchases
The oil market has been speculating about how much of Iran’s exports could be eroded by the U.S. sanctions, with analysts from BMI Research to Mizuho Securities predicting that China might boost its imports of cheap supplies from the state and offset cuts by other nations. Countries including South Korea and Japan are reducing purchases from OPEC’s third-largest producer before the deadline to avoid the risk of buyers losing access to the U.S. financial system.

减少采购
石油市场一直在猜测伊朗的石油出口会在多大程度上因美国制裁而受损,从BMI调研到瑞德证劵等多家公司的分析师预测中国可能会大大增加对便宜的伊朗石油的进口,从而抵消其他国家停止购买造成的缺口。最后期限到来之前,包括韩国和日本在内的国家都正在减少从伊朗进口石油,以免收购者失去进入美国金融体系的机会。

China -- the world’s top crude buyer and Iran’s No. 1 customer -- has said previously that it opposed unilateral sanctions and lifted monthly oil imports from the country by 26 percent in July. It accounted for 35 percent the Iranian exports last month, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

中国——世界上最大的原油买家以及伊朗最大的客户——此前于七月份表示反对单边制裁,并表示不会取消每月从伊朗进口26%的石油。根据彭博社收集的航船数据,上个月中国从伊朗进口的石油占该国石油出口的35%。

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia, has pledged to fill any supply gaps in the market after Trump’s complaints . That’s helped limit a rally in global benchmark Brent crude, which is trading near $73 a barrel after falling 6.5 percent last month. The London marker is still up about 40 percent from a year earlier.

特朗普抱怨之后,沙特阿拉伯主导的石油输出国组织承诺会填补所有因制裁而造成的石油市场缺口。这有助于限制作为全球原油价格基准的布伦特原油期货价格的回升,上个月价格跌了6.5%之后,布伦特原油期货交易价格仍然达到了近73美元一桶。这个位于伦敦的原油期货交易所的价格仍比去年高40%左右。