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China's Oil Futures Contract Is Beginning To Show Its Teeth

中国的石油期货合约开始展露锋芒



So far so good. Petrodollar will be showing signs of wear-and-tear in the very near future.

到目前为止一切顺利。而将在不久的将来,石油美元会出现日渐不支的迹象。

We have been documenting the demise of the dollar hegemony for the past several years and the past two years the pace of the demise seems to be moving like a rocket.

在过去的几年里,我们一直在记录美元霸权的消亡,在过去的两年里,这种消亡的速度似乎像火箭一样在加速。

All the little details being handled since the global financial meltdown in 2008 are now converging and one of the biggest pieces is now showing its teeth – the Chinese oil futures contract priced in yuan is growing in such a way that by the years end, at the current pace of growth, this contract will present a real challenge to the petrodollar.

美元自2008年全球金融熔断以来所面临的各种细小的问题,现在正在聚集起来,其中最大的一个问题现在正展露锋芒,也就是以人民币定价的中国石油期货合约,它正以这样的方式增长,以至于以目前的增长速度计算,到了本年末,这一合约将给石油美元带来真正的挑战。

"China’s newly-launched crude oil futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange saw its trading volume surge to a record high in early June, a positive sign that a wide variety of financial market players have been keen to contribute liquidity into the new derivative market.

“中国最近在上海国际能源交易所启动的原油期货,6月初的交易量飙升至创纪录高位,这是一个积极信号,表明各种金融市场参与者一直热衷于为这一新衍生品市场提供流动性。



While this market is still in the earliest of stages of development the pace of growth seems to be significant and catching a lot of people by surprise. It appears the first major hurdle to catching the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contracts will be to surpass the Dubai Mercantile’s contact that averages more than 54,000 daily daily contacts. With the current pace of the Chinese contract that hurdle will be in the rearview mirror by the end of June and certainly by the end of July it will be confirmed.

尽管这一市场仍处于发展的早期阶段,但其增长速度似乎相当可观,令许多人感到意外。它追赶布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油合约(WTI)所面临的第一个主要障碍,似乎将是超过迪拜商品交易所,后者的日均交易量超过5.4万手。按照中国合约目前的节奏,它将在6月底把这个障碍甩在身后,当然在7月底之前这一点也会得到确认。

The two major contracts, Brent and WTI, have a combined daily total of 2.6 million contracts so the Chinese contract has some ways to go before it poses any kind of real threat but it is well on its on way to establishing itself as a global force.

布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油这两种主要的原油期货合约每天总共有260万手合约,因此中国的原油期货合约还有一些路要走,才能给它们任何真正的威胁,但它正在努力逐步将自己打造成一支全球力量。

"Although the new INE crude futures market has been widely considered a success so far, it is still very small compared with mature international crude benchmarks in terms of trading volume and open interest, market participants noted.

“市场人士指出,尽管INE这一新的原油期货市场迄今已被广泛认为是成功的,但与成熟的国际原油基准相比,它在交易量和未平仓合约方面仍非常小。

Currently, ICE Brent and NYMEX light sweet crude futures are the two leading global benchmarks.

目前,ICE布伦特原油期货和纽约商品交易所轻质原油期货是全球两大主要基准。

The Brent futures’ trading volume averaged 1 million lots/day on ICE in May, with open interest seen at an average of 2.6 million lots in the month, according to data on ICE website." Source – Platts

根据ICE网站的数据,5月份布伦特原油期货的交易量平均为100万手/日,当月的未平仓量合约平均为260万手。”来源为普氏能源资讯。

We should have better data and a better view after the July numbers print. My guess is, the new China contract is going to continue growing and petrodollars are going to continue waning.

当7月的数字出现,我们应该会获得更好的数据以及更好的观察。我的猜测是,中国这一新兴合约将继续增长,而石油美元将继续走弱。