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It is a distinction that nocountry wants: the place with the most people living in extreme poverty.

这是任何国家都不愿意看到的:大多数人生活在极度贫困中。

For decades, India remainedstubbornly in the top spot, a reflection of its huge population and itsenduring struggle against poverty.

几十年来,印度一直顽固地待在榜首,反映了其庞大的人口和持久的反贫困斗争。

Now new estimates indicate that Nigeria has knocked India out of that position, part of a profound shift taking place in the geography of the world’s poorest people.

现在新的报告表明,尼日利亚已经把印度从这个位置上打倒了,这是世界上最贫困人口的地理位置发生深刻变化的一部分。

According to a recent report fromthe Brookings Institution, Nigeria overtook India in May to become the countrywith the world’s highest number of people living in extreme poverty, which isdefined as living on less than $1.90 a day. The threshold captures those whostruggle to obtain even basic necessities such as food, shelter and clothing,and takes into account differences in purchasing power between countries.

根据布鲁金斯学会最近的一份报告,尼日利亚5月份超过印度,成为世界上生活在极端贫困中人口最多的国家,这个门槛被定义为每天生活费不到1.90美元。这个门槛标准包括了人们生存所需的必须标准,比如食物、住所和衣服,并考虑到国家间购买力的差异。

The Brookings report was based on estimates generated by the World Poverty Clock, a model created to track progress against poverty in real time. As of Monday, its figures showed that India had 70.6 million people living in extreme poverty, while Nigeria had 87 million.

布鲁金斯的报告是基于世界贫困钟所产生的估计,该模型是为了实时追踪贫困的发展而建立的模型。截至星期一,数据显示,印度有7060万人生活在极度贫困中,而尼日利亚有8700万人。

What’s more, the gap is widening:The number of people living in extreme poverty in India is falling while theopposite is true in Nigeria, where the population is growing faster than itseconomy. Extreme poverty rises in Nigeria by six people each minute, accordingto calculations by the World Poverty Clock. Meanwhile, the number of extremepoor in India drops by 44 people a minute.

更重要的是,差距正在扩大:印度的极端贫困人口数量正在下降,而尼日利亚则相反,人口增长速度比经济增长更快。根据世界贫困时钟的计算,尼日利亚的极端贫困人口每分钟增加六人。与此同时,印度极端贫困人数每分钟下降44人。

“It’s a good news story for India,coupled with some caveats, and it’s a real wake-up call for the Africancontinent,” said Homi Kharas, director of the global economy and developmentprogram at the Brookings Institution.

布鲁金斯学会全球经济与发展计划主任卡拉斯说:“虽然需要警惕,但这对印度来说是个好消息,同时这对非洲大陆是一个真正的警钟。”



Extreme poverty is increasingly an African phenomenon, theBrookings report noted. Africans make up about two-thirds of the world’sextreme poor, it said. By 2030, that figure could rise to nine-tenths ifcurrent trends continue.

布鲁金斯报告指出,极端贫困正日益成为一种非洲现象。报告称,非洲人占世界极端贫困人口的三分之二,如果当前趋势继续下去,到2030年这个数字可能上升到十分之九。

Africa’s central place in thebattle against poverty comes amid dramatic progress worldwide. Since 1990, thenumber of people living in extreme poverty has fallen more than 60 percent,according to the World Bank. Much of the reduction has come in Asia, first inplaces such as China, Indonesia and Vietnam, and more recently in India, whichappears to have made striking achievements in recent years.

非洲在反贫困斗争中的中心地位是世界范围内的巨大进步。据世界银行统计,自1990年以来,生活在极端贫困中的人数下降了60%以上,大部分削减都来自亚洲,首先是在中国、印度尼西亚和越南等地,最近是在印度,这几年似乎取得了显著的成就。

In a post on Monday, World Poverty Clock researchers raised the tantalizing prospect that by 2021, fewer than 3 percent of India’s population will live in extreme poverty, a benchmark viewed by some development economists as “a watershed moment.”

在周一的一篇文章中,世界贫困时钟研究者提出了一个诱人的前景:到2021年,印度不到3%的人口将生活在极度贫困之中,一些发展经济学家认为这是一个“分水岭”。

For many in India, such talk is sure to provoke sharp debate. Tens of millions of people remain destitute and thousands of farmers commit suicide each year. Nearly 40 percent of Indian children under 5 are short for their age, a sign of chronic undernutrition.

对印度的许多人来说,这样的问题肯定会引起激烈的争论。每年仍有数以百万计的人穷困,成千上万的农民自杀。在5岁以下的印度儿童中,近40%的人身高不够,这是长期营养不足的表现。

“The claims that India is on the verge of winning the battle against extreme poverty sit uneasily with the current concerns about job creation or rural distress,” said an editorial last week in Mint, a financial newspaper in India.

印度金融报纸《Mint》上周的一篇社论说:“在印度即将战胜极端贫困的声音中,也伴随着对就业机会和农村贫困的不安和担忧。”

Part of the disconnect may be the result of how poverty is defined. The extreme poverty threshold is an absolute measure used for international comparison. Last year, however, the World Bank added another benchmark that aims to capture a sense of relative poverty. For “lower middle income” countries like India, it set the line at people who live on $3.20 day. By that measure, a third of Indians are poor, economist Surjit Bhalla estimated in a recent article.

争议的部分原因可能来自于贫困的定义,极端贫困阈值是用一种绝对值来作为国际参照(定义贫困)。然而,去年世界银行增加了另一个标准,旨在捕捉相对贫困。对于像印度这样的“中低收入”国家,它(将贫困标准)定义为每天生活在3.20美元以下的人。按照这个参照,经济学家瑟吉特·巴拉在最近的一篇文章中估计,三分之一的印度人是穷人。

More clarity could be only monthsaway. In June, the Indian government completed a national survey which isconducted once every five years and provides the best available data onpoverty. In the past, the results have been released anywhere from severalmonths to a year after finishing the survey. Bhalla, an economist who alsoserves as a part-time adviser to the Indian government, believes that thecountry’s own data could show it made even more progress reducing poverty thanthe estimates produced by Brookings and the World Poverty Clock.

几个月之内可能会有更透明的数据,六月,印度政府完成了一项每五年进行一次的全国性调查,并提供关于贫困的最佳数据。过去,这项调查结果在完成调查后几个月到一年内公布。作为印度政府兼职顾问的经济学家巴拉认为,该国自己的数据表明,它在减贫方面的进步比布鲁金斯和世界贫困钟所估计的更多。