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Those who have studied history understand the importance of being engaged in the global economy.Two thousand years ago, China represented nearly 25 per cent of the global economy. In 1600, it was 30 per cent, and a third in 1820. The country was a global powerhouse, to say the least.

那些研究过历史的人都会明白参与到全球经济的重要性。2000年前以前,中国曾经占据了全球经济的25%。在17世纪时,这个比例来到了30%,在1820年则进一步提高到了三分之一。所以我们至少可以确信地说,这个国家曾经是一个全球强国。



There is a famous story from 1792 when King George III’s ambassador led a trade mission to China with a cargo of the latest European technologies to present to the Chinese emperor — telescopes, globes, barometers, lenses, clocks, carriages, and other such things.Historians report the Chinese emperor said: “There is nothing we lack — we have never set much store on strange or ingenious objects, nor do we want any more of your country’s manufactures,” thus reflecting his insular view.

下面是一个源于1792年的著名的故事。为了开启与中国之间的贸易,乔治三世派遣的大使率领着一个贸易代表团来到了中国。他们准备将一整艘代表着欧洲尖端技术的货物献给中国的皇帝,包括了望远镜,地球仪,气压计,钟表,车厢等物件。历史学家们是这样记录下当时的情形的,中国的皇帝回应道:“我们什么东西都不缺--我们对这些奇怪取巧的东西从来不感兴趣,也不想要你们国家任何的商品。”,这反应了他狭隘的眼光。

A complicated set of factors, including weak Chinese leadership, internal conflict and a rejection of Western technology led to China turning inward and missing out on the Industrial Revolution. This left China significantly weakened, and subject to invasion and Western humiliation.

在一系列复杂因素的影响下,包括领导阶层能力不足,内部的冲突以及对于西方技术的排斥,导致中国采取了闭关锁国的姿态,完全错过了工业革命。这使得中国明显地衰弱了下来,并最终受到了侵略和西方的羞辱。

China’s demise in the 1800s lasted for more than 100 years. It was not until the 1978 Chinese Communist Party reforms under Deng Xiaoping that China re-emerged, allowing it access to Western markets and technology, thus providing economic growth and prosperity for the Chinese people.Today, on a PPP (purchasing power parity) basis, China is the largest economy in the world — as it was 200 years ago.People monitor stock prices in Beijing in June 2018. China is back as a global economic powerhouse after an insular era spent in the shadows. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)Interestingly, China’s growth was driven by exports in industries that saw the most significant liberalization. Going forward, China’s growth will likely slow as it will need to increasingly compete in industries in which there is much more protection.

自19世纪开始,中国的衰弱维持了一百多年。直到1978年迎来了邓小平领导下的改革开放,中国才重新崛起,那次改革使中国接纳了西方的市场模式以及科学技术,也从而为中国人民带来了经济的增长和市场的繁荣。在今天,以购买力平价计算的话,中国已经是世界上最大的经济体了---就像他们在200多年以前做到的那样。在一个与世隔绝的时代之后,中国重新回到了全球经济强国的地位。而有趣的是,为中国的经济增长提供了最大的动力的正是自由化的出口产业。展望未来,中国的增长很可能会放缓,因为它必须要在更多受到贸易保护的行业中与其他国家展开激烈的竞争。

This experience provides clear lessons for the United States.

这份经历能够为美国提供一些清晰明了的经验教训

The U.S. has been the world’s largest economy for the past 150 years. As journalist and author Farid Zakaria noted in his 2008 book The Post-American World and the Rise of the Rest, it’s now a post-American era, where the U.S. is not falling, but other countries are closing the gap.But Zakaria’s book was published before the rise of Donald Trump and the insular and protectionist sentiment sweeping America.

在过去的150年里,美国一直都是世界上最大的经济体。正如记者兼作家法里德扎卡利亚在2008年所出版的书《后美国世界》提及的那样,现在是一个后美国时代,不过美国并没有衰弱,而是其他国家正在缩小着与美国之间的差距。但是扎卡利亚的这本书出版时,唐纳德.特朗普还并没有崛起,孤立主义和保护主义的情绪也还没有席卷整个美国。

The first tangible action of the Trump administration that pushed the U.S. towards an isolationist stance was his rejection of the Trans Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement that would give the U.S. access to an enormous share of the global economy.

抛弃跨太平洋伙伴关系协定是特朗普政府采取的第一个切实的行动,这个决定将美国推向了孤立主义。而TPP原本是一项能够帮助美国在全球经济中获得巨大份额的贸易协定。

Donald Trump would be wise to heed the lessons of Chinese history as he shuts off the United States from the rest of the world. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)Trump has also ordered a renegotiation of NAFTA, and has imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports into the U.S., prompting swift retaliatory action from the Europeans and Canadians. And now there is a very real possibility of a further round of tariffs. An all-out trade war seems increasingly likely, with dangerous economic and political ramifications for the United States and the world economy.Also, and remarkably amid tensions with North Korea, Trump has also forced more protectionist dimensions into the U.S.’s free-trade agreement with South Korea.

特朗普正试着切断美国与世界其他地区之间的联系,如果他足够聪明的话,他本该从中国历史的经验中吸取一些教训。特朗普还下令开启对北美自由贸易协定的重新谈判,并且提高进口到美国的钢铁和铝制品的进口关税,这一决定也促使欧洲和加拿大迅速地展开了报复行动,而且美国与这些贸易伙伴们很可能会彼此进一步相互征收更高的关税。一场全面的贸易战争发生的可能性正变得越来越大,这将会给美国以及世界经济及政治带来危险的影响。此外,伴随着美国与朝鲜之间的紧张局势下,特朗普依然要求美国在与韩国之间的美韩自由贸易协定中采取更多的保护主义措施。

Trump’s views that such agreements allow the rest of the world to benefit at the expense of the U.S. is so very wrong — these are not zero sum agreements. His moves to limit immigration are another dimension in his insular and protectionist vision for the U.S.Closing the U.S. off to the rest of the world is reminiscent of China more than 200 years ago. Of course, the circumstances are very different and it’s a different age. Nevertheless, leading economies of the world must be fully engaged in the global economy, both economically and politically.

特朗普认为这些协议允许世界上的其他国家以通过牺牲美国利益的方式使自己的国家获得利益,这其实是非常错误的--这些贸易协议并非零和游戏。他限制移民的举措也在另一个方面表现了他所追求的美国孤立主义以及保护主义。这种将美国与世界其他地区隔绝的做法,不禁让人想起来200多年以前的中国。当然,两者之前的情况是非常不同的,而且我们身处于一个完全不同的时代了。但无论如何,身为世界的主要经济体,你必须要全情地投入到全球经济之中,无论是经济方面还是政治方面。

It’s time for Trump and his supporters to understand that it is inconsistent to be a global power and protectionist.The United States must remain open to trade, investment, immigration and the free flow of ideas. It must remain fully engaged in international institutions such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank — being a superpower is about both hard and soft power.There is a clear contradiction between “make America great again” and closing off from the world. If the U.S. closes itself to the world, its future as a world leader in every way is at significant risk.

特朗普和他的支持者们应该需要清楚一点:一个超级大国以及一个贸易保护主义者,这两种身份完全是互相矛盾的。美国必须对贸易,投资,移民以及理念保持开放的态度。它必须全面地参与到联合国,国际货币基金组织和世界银行等国际机构的工作之中--想要成为一个超级大国,你需要的不仅仅是硬实力,还有软实力。“让美国再次伟大起来”和这种与世隔绝的政策之间有着非常明显的矛盾。如果美国继续将自己与世界隔离起来,那么在未来他们作为世界领导者的位置也将会是岌岌可危的。