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China and the Clash of Civilizations

中国及文化冲突

To recap briefly, after the collapse of most communist states in 1990, the world appeared to have entered a period of permanent peace.  Stanford University-based political scientist Francis Fukuyama called it "the end of history," in which democracy and free-market capitalism would become the final form of human government.  In response to Fukuyama's 1992 book, Harvard political scientist Samuel Huntington penned an article entitled "The Clash of Civilizations?," which he expanded into a 1996 book entitled The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order.  Huntington argued that now that the age of ideological conflict between communism and capitalism had ended, civilizational conflict, the normal state of affairs in the world, would reassert itself.  His book concentrated on the "bloody borders" between Islamic and non-Islamic communities.

简单回顾来看,在90年代多数GC国家崩溃之后,世界似乎进入了永久和平时期。斯坦福大学的政治学家弗朗西斯福山称其为“历史的终结”,并称民主和自由资本主义将成为人类政府的最终形式。

作为对福山1992年出版的《历史的终结与最后的人》的回应,哈佛大学政治学家塞缪尔亨廷顿写下了“文明的冲突?”的一文。此文被扩展完善,完成《文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建》书于1996年出版。

亨廷顿认为,现在GC主义和资本主义之间的意识形态冲突的时代已经结束,世界事务的正常状态————文明冲突,将会重新浮出水面。他的书着急探讨了伊斯兰和非伊斯兰社会之间的“血腥边界”。

百度百科:
法兰西斯·福山(Francis Fukuyama)生于1952年10月27日,日裔美籍学者。哈佛大学政治学博士,现任约翰霍普金斯大学、保罗·尼采高级国际问题研究院、舒华兹讲座、国际政治经济学教授,曾师从塞缪尔·亨廷顿。曾任美国国务院思想库政策企划局副局长。著有《历史之终结与最后一人》、《后人类未来──基因工程的人性浩劫》、《跨越断层──人性与社会秩序重建》、《信任》、《政治秩序的起源:从前人类时代到法国大革命》。他的第一本著作《历史之终结与最后一人》让他一举成名。

塞缪尔·亨廷顿(1927.4.18--2008.12.24),英文名Samuel P. Huntington,美国当代著名的国际政治理论家。早年就读于耶鲁大学、芝加哥大学和哈佛大学,1951 年23岁时即获哈佛大学博士学位,并留校任教长达58年,并先后在美国政府许多部门担任过公职或充当顾问。曾任哈佛大学阿尔伯特·魏斯赫德三世学院教授,哈佛国际和地区问题研究所所长,约翰·奥林战略研究所主任。曾任卡特政府国家安全计划顾问,《外交政策》杂志发言人与主编之一,是《文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建》一书的作者。

Huntington recognized nine civilizations, and as per his prediction, two of those civilizations are trying to impose themselves on the rest of the world.  Islamic civilization got off to an early start with the World Trade Center bombing in 1993, following that attack up with demolition of the structure in 2001.  But the Islamic effort will pale into insignificance compared to what China has in store.  Countries that don't want to be dominated by China are at last organizing in response to that threat. 

亨廷顿认为世界有九个文明,据其预测,其中两个试图将其文明推行到世界的其它地方。伊斯兰文明的进攻始于1993年的世界贸易中心爆炸案,瓦解于2001的攻击,但与中国的存在相比,伊斯兰的努显得微不足道。不想被中国所支配的国家最终会组织起来应对这种威胁。


Using Huntington's cultural divisions as a template, the world can be divided into three camps: the anti-China camp, the indifferent, and China.  This graphic shows each group relative to the size of their economies:

以亨廷顿的文化区分为模板,世界可以分为三个阵营:反华,漠不关心和中国自身。该图显示了每个阵营的经济规模:



The coming war with China will mark the end of globalism.  In preparation for that war, the anti-China forces will attempt to shrink the Chinese economy using trade restrictions, starting with the Trump administration's effort to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China.  The front-line states in East Asia of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan realize the necessity of this.  The traditional European naval powers of the U.K. and France also realize that China must be contained.  Both countries have announced that they will be conducting freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea.

即将到来的与中国的战争将标志着全球主义的终结。为了准备这场战争,反华势力会试图使用用贸易限制来缩减中国经济规模,始于特朗普政府努力减少美国与中国的贸易逆差,东亚一线的日本,韩国和台湾也会认识到这一点的必要性。英法两国的传统欧洲海军力量也意识到中国必须受到控制,两国都宣布将在南海举行自由航行演习。

If China attacks these patrols, there is a high probability that the E.U. will retaliate by restricting China's access to the E.U. market. 

What is motivating the Europeans in this instance is that if China is successful in seizing the South China Sea, then every other body of water on the planet will be fair game, starting with parts of the Mediterranean.

如果中国袭击这些巡逻队,那么欧盟极有可能限制中国的市场准入进行报复。欧洲人的想法是如果中国成功夺得南海,那么其它海面也是公平游戏,或许从地中海的一部分开始。

Like the Muslims, the Europeans have been attempting some Kulturkampf on the rest of the planet, even as the E.U. is disintegrating at the margins.  Global warming is the state religion of the E.U., and its principals have threatened trade imposts on countries that don't toe the line.

像MSL一样,欧洲人一直在尝试在世界其它地方进行“文化斗争”,即使欧盟在瓦解的边缘的时候也没有变过。 全球变暖是欧盟的国教,其它主要纲领就是对不盲从的国家征收关税。

Kulturkampf:(1873-1887年罗马天主教会和德国政府之间围绕教育和教职任命权进行的)文化斗争;

The Europeans are also realizing that they have been played by China.  European companies came in to build factories and establish themselves in that once booming economy.  Now that those efforts are successful, China is effectively expropriating ownership.  For example, the Danish shipping company Maersk has 25% of its assets in China and at its peak had 1,100 expatriates in China to run the operation.  The Chinese government hasn't renewed visas for almost all of them.  There are now only two Maersk expatriates in China, and the company has lost control of 25% of its asset base.  Other European companies have been fined for being too successful against their Chinese competitors.  China is also hobbling its own economy with the move back to state-owned enterprises, which have one third of the productivity of privately owned companies.

欧洲人也意识到他们一直在被中国摆弄,欧洲公司进入中国兴建工厂,使得它一度繁荣的经济得以巩固。这些努力现在是成功的,中国正在有效率地吞噬所有权。例如,丹麦航运公司马士基25%的资产在中国,高峰期有1100名驻中国员工,中国政府没给绝大部份人续签签证,现今只有2名驻中员工,该公司已经失去了25%的资产基础控制权。其他欧洲公司则因对中国竞争对手过于成功而被罚款。中国正在一瘸一拐地回国有经济,尽管国营企业的生产效率只有私营的三分之一。

China continues to attempt to chew away at India's territory in the Himalayas.  In response, India is attempting to help stiffen the resolve of front-line states Vietnam and Indonesia for the coming conflict.

中国继续试图一口一口啃掉喜马拉雅山脉的印度领土。作为回应,印度则试图强化前线国家越南和印度尼西亚对未来冲突的决心。

The indifferent grouping is like China in that its members are mostly dictatorships with plenty of corruption and not much in the way of rule of law.  The latter two factors hobble productivity.  For example, the mystery of why Russia's economy is not much larger than Australia's is answered in corruption causing costs to be three times higher than they should be.  

Being amoral, these countries will happily continue to trade with China, no matter how many deaths the Chinese cause.

漠不关心阵营就像中国一样,成员多数是DC政权,多腐败无法治。后两个因素阻碍了生产力。例如,为什么俄罗斯经济未比澳大利亚大得多原因就是腐败使其成本高三倍。不管中国人造成了多少死亡,毫无道德都使其乐于继续与中国进行贸易往来。

At the same time, Chinese behavior has not won the Middle Kingdom any friends.  Once it is clear that China is losing the war that it will start, there will be a strong temptation to throw their lot in with the Allied side and declare war on China because it will be the excuse to expropriate Chinese-owned assets.

同时,中国人的行为尚未为”中央王朝“赢得过任何朋友。在即将开始的战争中,一旦中国的失败明朗化,强烈的诱惑力会使他们全国倒向盟军,向中国宣战将是吞噬中国资产的极佳理由。

What of China itself?  We won't be fighting all 1,300 million of them, just the 330 million or so in the coastal provinces that have had the economic growth of the last 20 years. 

We don't have to have a land war with them – Vietnam is down for that role.  All we have to do is sink all their ships and seize their artificial islands in the South China Sea.  And then wait them out.  The world will find that it can get along without China – quite happily.

中国本身有什么?我们不会与全部13亿人作战,而是在过去20年里变更富裕的、沿海省份的3.3亿人。我们不必进行地面战争--越南会扮演这个角色。我们要做的只是击沉他们的海船,夺得南海的人工岛,然后等他们送上门,世界会发现没有中国不便没事,还会生活得更好。