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North Korea’s release of US prisoners doesn’t mean peace

卫报观点:朝鲜释放美国囚犯并不意味着和平



High expectations for the coming summit between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump are unrealistic and dangerous

对即将到来的金正恩与特朗普会面抱有高期待,这是不切实际而又危险的。

Hold the jubilation today as President Trump boarded the plane at Andrews Air Force base near Washington DC to greet three hostages released by North Korea. As a full presidential welcome celebrates this gesture of peace, expectations of the upcoming Trump/Kim summit soar dangerously high.

今天当特朗普总统登上华盛顿特区附近的安德鲁斯空军基地迎接被朝鲜释放的三名人质时,人们在欢呼。这是一个大阵仗的总统欢迎仪式,有着庆祝和平的姿态。与此同时,人们对即将到来的金特会期望飙高是非常危险的。

“A remarkable foreign policy moment for Donald Trump,” said the breathless BBC correspondent – as if hostages had never been strategically released before by Pyongyang. On the runway, asked if he hoped to go to North Korea himself, Trump said: “It could happen.”

“这是唐纳德•特朗普一个重要的外交时刻,”一位(激动的)英国广播公司记者气喘吁吁地说道,好像朝鲜之前从来没有战略性地释放过人质一样。在跑道上,当特朗普被问自己是否希望亲自去朝鲜的时候,特朗普表示:“这可能会发生。”

Indeed, anything could happen with this irrational, impulsive president. Here’s the high risk: he expects total capitulation, and anything less than the “comprehensive, verifiable, irreversible denuclearisation” being demanded of North Korea will see his mood turn to furious revenge. This first small gesture is a long way from the final goal. Will anything less than total victory satisfy the nervy vanity of the US leader?

事实上,对于这样一个不理智、冲动的总统来说,任何事情都有可能发生。这存在很大的风险:特朗普希望金正恩彻底投降,而(一旦)朝鲜有任何达不到“全面、真实、不再翻盘的无核化”的举动都将让特朗普的情绪转变成愤怒的报复。这第一个小动作离最终目标还有很长的路要走。有什么比全面的胜利更能满足这位美国领导人神经质的虚荣心呢?

North Korea has reneged on agreements before, its leader as unpredictable and combustible as the US president. So far, closing one nuclear test site is the first concrete offer. But negotiating the next stage requires subtlety, dexterity, patience, caution and some understanding of the other side.

朝鲜之前违背了核协议,朝鲜领导人与美国总统一样难以捉摸、容易爆发。到目前为止,关闭一个核试验基地是朝鲜第一次具体的主动。但是下一阶段的谈判则需要耐心、谨慎、巧妙地对待并理解另一方。

注释:1994年10月21日,朝鲜和美国在日内瓦正式签署《关于解决朝鲜核问题的框架协议》,即朝美核框架协议。朝鲜同意冻结现有的核计划,美国允诺为朝鲜建造两座1000兆瓦轻水反应堆。该协议的签署使朝鲜半岛因核问题出现的紧张局势一度得到缓和。

Stand back and ask how realistic it is to expect a country that has acquired nuclear weapons to give them up altogether. North Korea has learned that nuclear weapons bring the mighty US president to negotiate on equal terms with a minnow, the poorest and weakest of countries. Look what happened to Muammar Gaddafi when he bartered away his nuclear capability.

退一步说,试问寄希望于一个已经拥有了核武器的国家完全放弃核武器,这有多么现实嘛。朝鲜已经明白了,核武器可以让强大的美国总统与一个最贫穷最弱小的国家平等地进行谈判。看看卡扎菲用核武器做交易后发生了什么事吧。

Countries that turn nuclear illegally – Pakistan, Israel – gain power and status. Is Kim really willing to give that up absolutely? Will Trump accept anything less? The answer to both questions looks like a no.

像巴基斯坦、以色列这些非法发展核武器的国家获得了实力和地位。金正恩真的愿意完全放弃核武器吗?特朗普会接受达不到他期望的结果吗?这两个问题的答案似乎都是否定的。

Meanwhile, overnight, the first direct result of Trump’s sabotage of the Iran nuclear deal landed with an entirely predicable thud. The 20 Iranian missiles fired into the occupied Golan Heights received a heavy Israeli retaliation on Iranian bases in Syria.

与此同时,特朗普在一夜之间撕毁了伊朗核协议,第一个直接的结果便是完全预测得到的轰炸。伊朗发射了20多枚导弹轰炸此前被以色列占领的戈兰高地,之后伊朗在叙利亚的军事基地遭到了以色列的疯狂报复。

注释:2015年7月20日,联合国安理会一致通过伊朗核协议。内容:伊朗不得从事5%以上丰度的铀浓缩,停止阿拉克重水反应堆建设,允许更多核查,有关六国将不追加对伊新制裁并松绑部分现有制裁。