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These U.S. Businesses Are Most at Risk From a Trade War With China

在与中国的贸易战中,这些美国企业处境最危险



U.S. companies need to prepare for greater tension between President Donald Trump’s administration and China. Trump plans to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum, including from China, and is said to be considering a broad range of curbs on China imports, from shoes and clothing to tech gadgets. Such moves could prompt retaliation from President Xi Jinping and lead to a Chinese backlash against American businesses. The following are among those most at risk:

美国企业需要为特朗普政府和中国之间的紧张关系做好准备。特朗普计划对包括中国在内的进口钢铁和铝征收关税,据称,他正考虑对中国进口产品进行广泛限制,从鞋类、服装到科技产品。该举动可能激起来自中国的报复,从而导致中国对美国企业的抵制。下列企业处境最危险:

1. Boeing
Boeing Co. expects China needs 7,240 new planes valued at almost $1.1 trillion in the two decades through 2036. However, if China’s leaders decided to punish American companies, Boeing would be an easy target since the government controls most of the company’s Chinese customers.

1,波音
波音公司预计,到2036年的未来20年内,中国需要7240架新飞机,价值近1.1万亿美元。然而,如果中国领导人决定惩罚美国公司,波音将是一个很容易的目标,因为该公司的大部分中国客户都受中国政府控制。

2. Starbucks
Chinese consumers angered by Trump could easily target one of the most visible U.S. brands. The timing of a trade dispute could be particularly bad for Starbucks Corp.: The Seattle-based coffee chain recently opened in Shanghai a 30,000-square-foot Starbucks Roastery and Tasting Room, the company’s first outside the U.S. Chairman said in December China is on course to be the company’s largest market in less than a decade.

2,星巴克
星巴克是存在感最高的美国品牌之一,很容易被那些被特朗普激怒了的中国消费者针对。贸易争端的时机可能尤其不利于星巴克公司:这家总部位于西雅图的咖啡连锁店最近在上海开了一个30000平方英尺(约2800平方米)的星巴克烘培工坊与臻选品鉴馆,该公司第一任海外董事长Howard Schultz去年12月称,中国有望在十年内成为该公司的最大市场。

3. Westinghouse
Success in China is critical for Westinghouse Electric Co., which filed for bankruptcy in 2017 but hopes this year to connect its next-generation reactor to the Chinese grid. Other countries are more likely to adopt Westinghouse’s technology if the much-delayed Chinese project finally starts operation. In November, CEO Jose Gutierrez said Westinghouse was still waiting for Chinese regulators to approve loading of nuclear fuel.

3,西屋电器
在中国市场的成功对西屋电气来说是至关重要的,该公司2017年申请破产,但寄希望于今年其下一代反应堆接入中国电网。如果这个拖延已久的中国项目最终开始运行,其它国家将更有可能采用西屋电气的技术。去年11月,首席执行官Jose Gutierrez表示,西屋电气仍在等待中国监管机构批准加载核燃料。

4. Tesla
A trade war would complicate efforts by Tesla Inc. to expand in China, where it’s already struggling to strike a deal to open a factory. The company led by Elon Musk said in June it was working with the Shanghai government to explore local manufacturing in China, a move that would allow the electric-car maker to achieve economies of scale and bring down manufacturing, labor and shipping costs.

4,特斯拉
一场贸易战争将使特斯拉扩大中国市场的努力更加恶化,特斯拉正想方设法达成一项开设一家工厂的新协议。Elon Musk领导的这家公司在去年6月份表示,它正与上海市政府合作,探讨在中国本土制造,此举将使这家电动汽车制造商实现规模经济,并降低制造、劳动力和运输成本。

5. Apple and Tech Companies
Apple may have the most to lose if Trump’s tariffs define imported goods as all items produced in China. Top U.S. hardware makers from Intel Corp. to Dell Inc. also rely heavily on manufacturing in China. Apple makes most of its gadgets — including iPhones and iPads — in China via partners such as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., part of Taiwan’s Foxconn Technology Group. China could also use a new cybersecurity law to create headaches for companies like Amazon.com Inc.

5,苹果公司及科技公司
如果特朗普的关税将所有在中国生产的进口商品都包括进去,那么苹果可能成为最大输家。英特尔和戴尔等美国顶级硬件制造商也严重依赖中国制造业。鸿海精密工业公司等合作伙伴为苹果生产了大部分配件——包括iPhone和iPad。中国还可以利用一项新的网络安全法,为亚马逊等公司制造麻烦。

6. Ford
With Ford Motor Co.’s China business struggling (vehicle sales fell 6 percent in 2017) and the company planning more than $750 million in co-investments there, the automaker is especially vulnerable to a sudden downturn in U.S.-China relations. To illustrate how quickly Chinese consumers can respond to geopolitical tensions, sales of Hyundai and Kia cars in China plunged following a spat last year between China and South Korea over an antimissile system. Don’t forget General Motors, either; it sells more cars in China than Ford.

6,福特
福特汽车公司的中国业务陷入了困境(2017年汽车销量下降了6%),公司计划在中国共同投资超过7.5亿美元,通用汽车特别容易受美中关系影响而迅速衰退。想知道中国消费者如何迅速回应地缘政治紧张局势的话,看看现代和起亚汽车就知道了,在中韩因萨德系统发生争执后,两家公司销量猛跌。另外别忘了通用汽车,它在中国的汽车销量比福特还多。

7. Agriculture
If China wanted to hit back, soybeans could be a weapon. The U.S. sold $13.9 billion to the Asian nation in 2017. While the U.S. counts China as its biggest market for the oilseed used in animal feed, Beijing has a choice of sellers to turn to in the event of a retaliation on U.S. imports. Meat imports are also a potential flashpoint. They were the second-most valuable agricultural trade between the U.S. and China in 2017, worth about $1.3 billion. China’s JD.com Inc. has agreed to buy $1.2 billion of beef from the Montana Stock Growers Association and pork from Smithfield Foods Inc. as part of a deal by the Chinese online retailer to import $2 billion of U.S. goods.

7,农业
如果中国想反击,大豆可能是一个武器。2017年,美国向亚洲国家出售了价值139亿美元(的农产品)。美国将中国视为其动物饲料用油籽的最大市场,而如果中国政府决定报复,有其它卖家可供中国选择。肉类进口也是一个潜在的冲突点。肉类美中2017年价值第二高的农业贸易品,价值约13亿美元。中国京东已同意从Montana Stock Growers Association进口牛肉以及从Smithfield Foods购买猪肉,价值共12亿美元,作为该中国网络零售商进口的20亿美元的美国商品的一部分。

8. Oil & Gas
The shale boom has helped the U.S. challenge Russia and Saudi Arabia as one of the world’s biggest oil producers, and the end of a four-decade ban on crude exports means its supply is sailing to nations across the globe. And China’s welcoming its cargoes more than any other nation. Imports of American oil increased almost 1,500 percent in 2017, with purchases valued at about $3.2 billion. China has also been snapping up cargoes of liquefied natural gas and inking long-term supply deals.

8,石油及天然气
页岩气的迅速发展使得美国可以挑战俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯的世界上最大石油生产国身份,而40年的原油出口禁令的终结(美国当地时间18日,美国会批准解除了长达40年的原油出口禁令)意味着美国油气将像全球供应。而且中国对其产品的欢迎程度超过了其它任何国家。2017年,中国对美国石油的进口增长了近1500%,总进口价值约32亿美元。中国还在抢购液化天然气,并签订长期供应协议。

9. Finance Companies
China has vowed to open up its finance industry. Might Trump’s actions force the door shut for U.S. finance firms just as it was about to open?

9,金融公司
中国已要立誓要开放其金融行业。在大门将要开放之际,特朗普的举动是否会使得大门对美国金融公司关闭?

10. China’s U.S. Acquisitions
Trump is said to be looking to toughen rules on Chinese purchases of U.S. firms, such as adding curbs in industries where American businesses do not have reciprocal access to acquiring Chinese counterparts. There has been a spate of Chinese acquisitions in the U.S. in recent years. Among those already facing U.S. scrutiny is HNA Group Co.’s takeover of SkyBridge Capital, the hedge-fund firm of Anthony Scaramucci, who was briefly Trump’s communications director.

10,中国在美收购
特朗普据称正寻求加强对中国收购美国企业的管控,如在美国企业没有得到互惠地位的行业增加限制。近年来,中国在美国进行了大量收购。在那些正面临美国方面审查的收购中,其中一项是海航集团收购天桥资本,这是名下的一家对冲基金公司,Anthony Scaramucci曾短暂担任特朗普的公关总监。