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Confronting a nuclear North Korea: Lessons from China      
Stephanie Sy Yahoo News•December 5, 2017

【雅虎】面对拥有核武的朝鲜:中国经验



A Communist Asian nation successfully tests a nuclear device, stoking anxiety among U.S. intelligence officials who have been monitoring the sudden progress of the rogue nation’s nuclear weapons program. The U.S. president weighs preventive military strikes, the specter of war looms, and bellicose rhetoric spews from unpredictable leaders on both sides.
      
一个亚洲共产主义国家成功地测试了一个核装置,引起了美国情报官员的焦虑,他们一直都在监视这个流氓国家的核武计划的突然进展。美国总统衡量预防性的军事打击,战争的幽灵迫近,以及来自双方不可预测的领导人的好战言论。
      
A scene-setter for current tensions with North Korea? Yes, but also a fair description of events in 1964, when the People’s Republic of China, ruled by Mao Zedong, conducted its first successful test of a nuclear bomb.
      
目前与朝鲜的紧张关系是早已设定好的吗?是的,但也是对1964年的事件的一个公正的描述,当时由毛泽东领导的中华人民共和国成功的进行了第一次核弹试验。
      
North Korea’s nuclear and long-range missile tests have already surpassed the Chinese test of 1964 (considered to be the moment China joined the nuclear club) and, according to 38North.org, initial calculations of its Nov. 29 test launch “indicate the new missile could deliver a moderately-sized nuclear weapon to any city on the U.S. mainland.”
      
朝鲜的核弹和远程导弹试验已经超过了中国在1964年的试验(被认为是中国加入核俱乐部的时刻),根据38North.org的消息,对11月29日的导弹试射初步计算“表明了新型导弹可以向美国本土的任何城市投送中等大小的核武器。”
      
That is a frightening prospect. But some foreign policy experts think it may also represent a step toward stability. They raise the possibility that a North Korea with a credible nuclear deterrence capability could be open to the kinds of implicit and explicit agreements that during and since the Cold War have kept the other nuclear-armed nations from plunging into the abyss of “mutually assured destruction.”
      
前景令人恐惧,但是一些外交政策专家认为,这也可能是迈向稳定的一步。他们认为,朝鲜具有可信的核威慑力之后可能会对各种暗含的或明确的协议持开放态度,自冷战开始,这些协议避免了其他核武国家陷入“确保相互摧毁”的深渊。


      
“If we’re optimistic, we could say this moment sets the scene for possible talks,” says Devin Stewart, senior program director at the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs.
      
卡内基理事会国际事务伦理委员会高级项目主管德文·斯图尔特(Devin Stewart)说:“如果我们乐观的话,这一刻可能为对话提供了契机。

      The history of China’s nuclear program offers some lessons.

中国核计划的历史提供了一些经验。      

China was the rogue state of the 1960s, with an unpredictable and potentially irrational strongman at the helm. Mao was desperate to maintain the revolutionary fervor that brought him to power.
      
上个世纪六十年代在一个不可预测的和可能不理性的强人掌舵下,中国是当时的流氓国家。毛泽东急于维护给他带来权利的革命热情。
      
If KimJong Un and his father before him have been characterized and caricatured as unhinged mad men, consider what Mao said in 1957: “I’m not afraid of nuclear war. There are 2.7 billion people in the world; it doesn’t matter if some are killed. China has a population of 600 million; even if half of them are killed, there are still 300 million people left.”
      
如果说金正恩和他的父亲被描绘成精神错乱的疯子,想想毛在1957年所说的话:“我不怕核战争。世界上有27亿人,有些人被杀死也不要紧。 中国有6亿人口,即使一半人死亡,仍有三亿人活着。”
      
Even as Mao dismissed nuclear weapons as inferior to his country’s conventional and “spiritual” defenses, China (with help from the Soviet Union) was pursuing its own nuclear arsenal. Declassified U.S. intelligence reports from the period warned that China’s “distorted view of the world may lead [China’s leadership] to miscalculate risks. This danger would be heightened if Communist China achieved a nuclear weapons capability.”
      
尽管相较于中国的传统和精神,毛蔑视核武器,中国(在苏联帮助下)也在寻求自己的核武器。已解密的本时期美国情报报告中说,中国“扭曲世界观可能导致(中国领导层)错估风险。如果共产中国拥有核武能力,这个风险会加剧。”
      
In his 1960 campaign, the future president John F. Kennedy said, “There are indications, because of new inventions, that 10, 15 or 20 nations will have a nuclear capacity, including Red China, by the end of the presidential office in 1964.”
      
当选总统肯尼迪(John F. Kennedy)在1960年的竞选中说:“有迹象表明由于新的证据,到1964年总统任期结束时,包括红色中国在内的10,15或20个国家将拥有核能力。


      
Kennedy was right, at least about China. (More than a half-century later, nine countries are known to possess nuclear bombs.) It would be years before China had the technology to credibly launch a nuclear-tipped missile against the U.S., but Kennedy correctly predicted that by the end of 1964, a nuclear-armed China would be a top national security concern. State Department records released in 1998 show that Kennedy and the subsequent Johnson administration were so worried about China getting the bomb that they considered preventive strikes, including with nuclear weapons.
      
至少关于中国肯尼迪是对的。(半个多世纪以后,已有9个国家拥有核弹。)尽管中国还需要好几年的时间才能掌握可靠地威胁美国的核导弹,但肯尼迪于1964年底准确的预测到,拥有核武器的中国将成为美国安全的重中之重。1998年发布的国务院记录显示,肯尼迪及其之后的林登·约翰逊政府非常担心中国获得核弹,他们考虑了包括核武器在内的预防性打击。
      
“That thinking dominated the ’60s, particularly in the Kennedy administration,” says Yevgen Sautin, a Gates Scholar at Cambridge University. “Kennedy had a huge fear of the Chinese nuclear program and sometimes used pretty racist language as well. … [He believed] that it was a unique peril for China to get the bomb.”
      
剑桥大学盖茨学者耶夫根·萨乌丁(Yevgen Sautin)说:“那种思维主宰了60年代,尤其是肯尼迪时期。“肯尼迪对中国的核项目非常担心,有时也用了相当种族主义的语言......,他认为让中国获得核弹是一种独特的冒险。”
      
More than half a century later, President Trump warned in his first speech at the U.N. General Assembly that “the scourge of our planet is a group of rogue regimes,” and threatened to “totally destroy” North Korea if necessary. President Trump has frequently invoked the possibility of a preventive military strike against Pyongyang.
      
半个多世纪之后,特朗普总统在联合国大会上的第一次讲话中警告说,“地球的祸根是一群流氓国家”,并威胁如果必要,将“彻底摧毁”朝鲜。特朗普总统经常提及对朝鲜进行预防性军事打击的可能性。


      
But many officials, including President Trump’s own former adviser Steve Bannon, have concluded “there’s no military solution” to North Korea.
      
但许多官员,包括特朗普总统的前顾问史蒂夫·班农都认为,对朝鲜“没有军事解决方案”。
      
That’s the same conclusion President Johnson ultimately reached. As Johnson weighed the risks and benefits of a nuclear strike, an influential report by the State Department put the risk of China’s acquisition of nuclear bombs in perspective. A member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, Robert Johnson, sent a briefing memo to the president saying military action to prevent China from acquiring the bomb would be “undesirable” and that the chance that the Chinese would ever launch a first strike was “highly unlikely” given the relative strength of the military capabilities of the U.S.
      
这和约翰逊总统最终达成的结论是一样的。当约翰逊权衡核打击的风险和利益时,美国国务院的一份有影响力的报告评估了中国寻求核武器的风险。美国国务院政策策划部门的一名成员罗伯特·约翰逊向总统发送了一份简报,称采取军事行动来阻止中国获得这种武器是“不可取的”,中国首先发动核打击的可能性是“极不可能”,因为美国的军事能力更强。
      
Sautin suggests that the outcome in the case of China may offer lessons and maybe even reasons for optimism when it comes to North Korea. “We don’t know if this is what led to it, but around the same time China becomes a nuclear power, it becomes more interested in improving its relationship with the United States,” says Sautin. China was eventually accepted as a legitimate nuclear power and while major concerns remain about its proliferation controls, it has been a party to the nonproliferation treaty since the mid-1990s.
      
萨乌丁认为,在中国的先例可能会为朝鲜方面提供经验,甚至可能其是乐观的原因。萨乌丁说:“我们不知道这是不是导致这种情况的原因,但中国成为核大国的同时,她更有兴趣改善与美国的关系。中国最终被认为是一个合法的核大国,虽然其核扩散的控制仍然受到重大关注,但自20世纪90年代中期以来,它一直是不扩散条约的成员国。
      
Could the world live with a nuclear North Korea? Will North Korea come to the negotiating table once it has achieved what it set out to achieve — a nuclear deterrent against the United States?
      
世界能容忍核武装的朝鲜吗?朝鲜一旦达到了它所要达到的目标 - 对美国的核威慑力,是否会来到谈判桌上呢?


      
“I’m not going to go out and say North Korea is going to become a model international actor if they get nuclear weapons,” says Sautin. “I think their motivations are different, but [China] is another good example that, from a U.S. perspective, with enough time you can adjust your expectations.”
      
萨乌丁说:“我不会说如果朝鲜获得核武器就会成为模范的国际角色。我认为他们的动机不同,但是从美国的角度来看,中国是另一个很好的例子,可以有足够的时间调整你的期待。

The two situations aren’t completely analogous.     

这两种情况并不完全相似。      

It’s clear that Kim desires a “powerful deterrent” against what he calls the “protracted nuclear threats of the U.S. imperialists.” His language parrots Mao’s proclamations and justifications for China’s nuclear program.
      
显然,金寻求对他所说的“美帝国主义的长期核威胁”有“强大的威慑力”。他鹦鹉学舌般地复述了毛泽东对中国核计划的宣言和理由。
      
But some analysts believe Kim Jong Un may not be “deterrable,” in the sense that he can be relied on to act rationally in his nation’s interests. More than half of North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile tests have occurred since he succeeded his father in 2011. His political purges and executions may have solidified his grip, but under his watch, North Korea has become even more isolated from the international community.
      
但一些分析人士认为,金正恩可能不是“可怕的”,理由是他可以依靠理性行事来维护国家利益。朝鲜一半以上的核试验和弹道导弹试射发生在自从2011年他接替父亲以来。他的政治清洗和处决可能巩固了他的控制权,但在他统治下,朝鲜被国际社会更加孤立。
      
“That’s the big question mark,” says the Carnegie Council’s Devin Stewart. “If North Korea is so incredibly weak and unstable and it’s a cult of personality, it’s a dynasty that … worships this idea of self-reliance. Do they operate by the same rules of international relations?”
      
卡内基理事会的德文·斯图尔特(Devin Stewart)说:“这是一个很大的问题。如果朝鲜如此虚弱且不稳定,而且个人崇拜,是个推崇自力更生理念的国家。他们是否按照国际关系的相同规则运转?“
      
Evan Osnos has written extensively about the North Korea nuclear situation and the mythology surrounding the Kim dynasty and its culture of self-reliance, or juche. He recently interviewed a North Korean defector named Ri Jong Ho, who makes a different comparison. Osnos wrotein the New Yorker:
      
埃文·奥斯诺斯(Evan Osnos)撰写了大量关于朝鲜核问题以及围绕金家王朝的神话和自力更生的文化或主体思想。最近他采访了一位名叫Ri Jong Ho的朝鲜叛逃者,其做了不同的比较。 奥斯诺斯在“纽约客”中写道:
      
“North Korea is similar to a monarchy of the 16th and 17th centuries,” Ri told me. In that analogy, Kim is the nervous tyrant. “Although he is worshipped like a god, he does not think that he has stable control over the country. You can see, from his actions, that he is anxious. He’s quick-tempered,” Ri said. “He feels the need to show that he is a bold, daring leader who can make spontaneous decisions, that his power is strong. He is young and proud. He is like a car with no brakes. If his father were alive, he would be controlled, but his father is gone, and there is no one who can control him.”
      
“朝鲜类似于16和17世纪的君主国家。”Ri告诉我说:在这个类比中,金是焦虑的暴君。“虽然像神一样被崇拜,但他并不认为他对国家有稳固的控制。从他的行为中你可以看到他很紧张。他脾气暴躁”Ri说。“他感觉需要展现他是一个勇敢的,勇于领导的人,可以做出自发的决定,表明他的力量是强大的。 他年轻而自豪。 他像是一辆没有刹车的汽车。如果他的父亲还活着,他还能被控制,但他的父亲已经去世了,已没人能够控制他。

Yevgen Sautin of Cambridge University points out another variable that makes the China analogy less than perfect — Donald Trump. There’s a psychological element, he says, that lies at the root of the U.S.-North Korea problem that is amplified by the temperament of the U.S. president.
      
剑桥大学的耶夫根·萨乌丁(Yevgen Sautin)指出了另一个跟中国的类比更不准确的变数 - 唐纳德·特朗普。他说,有一个心理因素是美国总统的性情所放大的美国和北韩问题的根源。


      
There’s little evidence that President Trump is listening to the more moderate voices in his administration, and after the most recent ICBM test, his ambassador to the U.N., Nikki Haley, echoed her boss’s language, stating “[I]f war comes, make no mistake, the North Korean regime will be utterly destroyed.”
      
几乎没有证据表明特朗普总统正在倾听政府中较为温和的意见。在最近的洲际导弹试射之后,美国驻联合国大使黑莉(Nikki Haley)附和了上司:“如果战争来临,毫无疑问的是,朝鲜政权将被彻底摧毁。“
      
“It’s hard for us to accept a country that’s so blatantly aggressive with its rhetoric,” says Sautin. “It would be uniquely difficult for [President Trump] to accept that this country, with this stand-offish leader, can credibly threaten the United States.”
      
萨乌丁说:“我们很难接受这样一个用言语嚣张挑衅的国家。“(特朗普总统)很难接受这个刚愎的领导人的国家能够可靠地威胁美国。”
      
But experts agree on one thing: Increasingly, it can.
      
但专家都认同一件事:越来越可以。