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The Nobel Peace Prize for 2017 was awarded to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, an advocacy group that has worked to draw attention to their “catastrophic humanitarian consequences.” 

2017年的诺贝尔和平奖颁给了国际废除核武器运动,这是一个致力于促使人们关注核武带来的“人道主义灾难后果”的团体。

Every year, the winners of the Nobel Prizes are announced to great fanfare. And none receives more scrutiny than the Nobel Peace Prize.

每一年,诺贝尔奖获得者都被大张旗鼓地宣布。其中诺贝尔和平奖比其他所有奖项受到的关注都多。

With good reason. The other Nobel Prizes are given to people who have already changed our world – for their remarkable accomplishments. But, in the case of the Nobel Peace Prize, the hope of the Nobel Committee is to change the world through its very conferral. It, therefore, rewards aspiration more than achievement.

而这是合乎情理的。别的诺贝尔奖项颁给的都是因其举世瞩目的成就而已经改变了我们世界的人。但是在诺贝尔和平奖的情况中,诺贝尔委员会希望的是通过这个奖项的授予来改变世界。因此,它奖赏的是抱负而非成就。

Francis Sejersted, chairman of the Norwegian Nobel Committee from 1991-1999, once noted with pride the Nobel Peace Prize’s political ambitions:

Francis Sejersted曾在1991年至1999年间担任挪威诺贝尔奖委员会主席,他曾经骄傲地注解过诺贝尔和平奖的政治抱负:

“The Committee also takes the possible positive effects of its choices into account [because] … Nobel wanted the Prize to have political effects. Awarding a Peace Prize is, to put it bluntly, a political act.”

“委员会也会将其选择可能带来的积极效果纳入考虑因为。。。诺贝尔想要这个奖带有政治效应。坦率地说,颁发诺贝尔和平奖
是一种政治行为。”

So, has the Nobel Peace Prize changed the world?

那么,诺贝尔和平奖改变过世界吗?

Expecting the prize to bring world peace would be an unfair standard to apply. However, my research shows that the winners and their causes have rarely profited from the award. Even worse, the prize has at times made it harder for them to make the leap from aspiration to achievement.

期待奖项能带来世界和平,以此作为适用标准是不公平的。然而我的研究显示,得主们和他们的事业很少得益于授奖。更糟的是,得奖有时候还使他们更难以从抱负迈向成功。

History of the peace award

和平奖的历史

The Nobel Peace Prize was first awarded in 1901, five years after Alfred Nobel’s death. Nobel’s will defined peace narrowly and focused on candidates’ accomplishments: The prize was to be awarded “to the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies, and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.”

诺贝尔和平奖在阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔去世后五年的1901年被首次颁发。诺贝尔的遗嘱将和平定义地很狭窄并且聚焦于候选人的成就:这个奖颁给的是“为促进民族间友好、取消或裁减常备军以及为和平会议的召开和促成尽到最多努力或作出最大贡献的人”。

The committee initially remained true to Nobel’s charge. Between 1901 and 1945, over three-quarters of the prizes (33 of 43) went to those who promoted interstate peace and disarmament.

一开始委员会遵照了诺贝尔的指示。1901至1945年间,超过份额四分之三的奖(43人中的33个)颁给了那些促进州际和平以及裁军的人士。

Since the Second World War, however, less than one-quarter of the prizes have gone to promoting interstate peace and disarmament. Just seven of the 37 winners since 1989 fall into this category. Another 11 awards have sought to encourage ongoing peace processes.

然而从第二次世界大战开始,颁给促进州际和平以及裁军的人士的奖还不到四分之一。从1989年开始,37位获奖者中只有7人属于这个类别。另有11个奖寻求的是鼓励进行中的和平进程。

 

But many of these processes had borne little fruit at the time or still had a long road ahead. Consider that three of the most prominent winners in this category were then Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman Yasser Arafat, Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. Nonetheless, the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is today in a coma.

但其中许多进程在当时都没能结出果实,或仍有很长的路要走。在这个类别中被认为最杰出的三位得主是巴勒斯坦解放组织(PLO)主席亚西尔·阿拉法特、以色列外交部长西蒙·佩雷斯以及以色列总理伊扎克·拉宾。尽管如此,今天巴以和平进程仍陷于昏滞。 

Perhaps for this reason, in the last decade, the committee has given just two awards to encourage peace processes. In 2008 Martti Ahtisaari, former president of Finland, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his various achievements in Namibia, Kosovo and Aceh. In 2016, Colombia’s President Juan Manuel Santos was honored with the Nobel in the hope that the prize would help push through his peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebels, even though a popular referendum had just rejected it, and thereby end his country’s half-century-long civil war.

可能因为这个原因,在过去十年中,委员会为鼓励和平进程只颁发过两次。2008年,芬兰前总统马尔蒂·阿赫蒂萨里因其在纳米比亚、科索沃和亚奇的各种贡献被授予诺贝尔和平奖。2016年,哥伦比亚总统胡安·曼努埃尔·桑托斯获得诺贝尔奖,希望能够帮助促成他与哥伦比亚革命武装力量(FARC)间的和平协议进而结束他国家长达半个世纪的内战,即使这份协议在一次全民公决被拒绝。

The striking change since the 1970s, and especially since the end of the Cold War, has been the Nobel Peace Prize’s growing focus on promoting domestic political change.

1970年代尤其是冷战结束以来一个引人注目的变化是:诺贝尔和平奖日益聚焦于促进一国内部的政治转变。

Between 1946 and 1970, the prize was awarded just twice to dissidents and activists like the South African leader Albert Luthuli, who led a nonviolent struggle against apartheid in the 1960s, and the American civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr.. Between 1971 and 1988, such figures received the prize five times. Between 1989 and 2016, more than 40 percent of all winners fell into this category.

1946至1970年间,只有两次把这个奖颁给了异见人士和活动家,比如南非领导人阿尔伯特·卢图利,他在1960年代领导了反对种族隔离的非暴力抗争,以及美国民权领袖马丁·路德·金。1971至1988年间,这类人物领过五次奖。而在1989至2016年间,所有得主中超过40%属于这个类别。

The rate has been even higher in the last decade: 57 percent of Nobel Peace Prize laureates since 2007 have been activists and advocates for equality, liberty and human development like educating women and stopping child labor.

在过去10年中,这个比率甚至更高了:2007年以来,57%的诺贝尔和平奖得主都是活动家,他们鼓吹的是平等、自由以及诸如让妇女受教育、停止使用童工等人类发展议题。

These are admirable values. But their connection to interstate, and intrastate, conflict is indirect at best and tenuous at worst.

这些当然是可敬的价值。但它们和州际以及州内冲突的关联往最好了说也只是间接的,往最糟说实是站不住脚的。

Does it bring global attention to issues?

奖有没有带来对议题的全球关注呢?

 
The Nobel Peace Prize’s defenders insist that the prize works in subtle but perceptible ways to advance the winners’ causes. They say it attracts media attention, bolsters the winners and their supporters, and even focuses international pressure.

为诺贝尔和平奖辩护的人们坚持认为这个奖以微妙且能察觉到的方式推进了获奖者的事业。他们说这个奖吸引了媒体的注意力,支撑了获奖者及其支持者,甚至还聚焦了国际压力。

But there’s little evidence that the Nobel Peace Prize brings sustained global attention.

但是没有证据表明诺贝尔和平奖带来了持续的全球关注。

First of all, in many instances it is hard to tell whether the prize has made any difference, because the media glare was already intense. For example, in 2005, when the committee honored the International Atomic Energy Agency and its director general, Mohammed El Baradei, nuclear proliferation was already of great concern. In other cases – such as South Africa’s transition from apartheid, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or the troubles in Northern Ireland – the prize made little noticeable difference to international media coverage.

首先,在很多情况下很难说这个奖是否带来了效果,因为媒体的渲染已经很强烈了。举例来说,2005年时委员会将奖授予国际原子能机构及其总干事穆罕默德·巴拉迪;
时,核扩散问题已经引起了很大关注。在另一些例子中,比如南非从种族隔离中转型,巴以冲突或北爱尔兰动乱,这个奖不曾给国际媒体报道带来过可察觉的变化。 

It is true that in those few cases where coverage was not already strong, there have been occasional successes. For instance, I found that the committee’s decision to hand the award to Aung San Suu Kyi in 1991 did draw attention to the plight of Myanmar.

确实在个别情况中,新闻报道还没有很彻底,偶尔也会有成功的情况。比如说,我发现1991年委员会颁给昂山素季的决定确实吸引了对缅甸困境的注意。

But, in general, my research found little evidence that winning the Nobel Peace Prize boosts international media coverage of the winner’s cause beyond the short run.

但我的研究发现,总的来说没有证据表明赢得诺贝尔和平奖能在短期内增加国际媒体对于得主事业的报道。

Putting activists in peril

将活动家置于险境

Of greater concern is that, when the Nobel Peace Prize goes to promote political and social change – as it has so often in recent decades – it can have very real and detrimental effects on the movements and causes it celebrates.

更令人担忧的是,当诺贝尔和平奖如它在过去几十年里 常常发生的那样转向于推动政治社会变革时,它也能对其赞颂的运动和事业产生真实而不利的影响。

Powerful authoritarian regimes will not liberalize just because the Nobel Committee has chosen to honor a dissident. This is not because regimes dismiss it as a silly award given out by international do-gooders. In fact, they take it very seriously. Fearing that domestic activists would take heart, they have ramped up repression, shrunk the space for political opposition and cracked down harder than ever.

强大的专制政权不会仅仅因为诺贝尔委员会选择将奖颁给一个异见人士就开始自由化。这并非是因为这些政权将其视为国际上空想改良家们发布的可笑奖项而不屑一顾。实际上,他们很是严肃地对待它。由于害怕国内的活动家们因之振作,他们加强镇压力度,收紧政治反对派的空间并比以往任何时候都更加严厉地打击。

This is what happened in Tibet and Myanmar after the Dalai Lama and after Aung San Suu Kyi received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989 and 1991, respectively. Similarly, the Iranian lawyer and human rights activist Shirin Ebadi has been forced to lived in exile in Britain since 2009. In China, the peace award did not make the release of the dissident Liu Xiaobo from prison more likely.

这就是达赖喇嘛和昂山素季分别在1989和1991年获得诺贝尔和平奖后发生在西藏和缅甸的事。相似地,来自伊朗的律师和人权活动家希林·艾巴迪从2009年起就被迫流亡英国。在中国,更可能是因为获颁和平奖而没能使异见人士刘晓波从牢狱中得到释放。

The same is true when it comes to social change. Patriarchal societies, with their deeply entrenched gender roles, will not change just because some people in the West think they should and to that end name a women’s rights activist a Nobel laureate.

在社会变革方面也是如此,有着根深蒂固性别角色限定的重男轻女社会,是不会仅仅因为西方人认为他们应该且为了达到社会变革的目的而提名一位妇女权益活动家为诺贝尔得主就发生改变。

What’s at stake?

紧要的问题是什么?

The Nobel Committee’s intentions are honorable, but the results, I argue, can be tragic. The award raises the spirits of reformers, but it also mobilizes forces that are far greater in opposition.

诺贝尔委员会的意图是可敬的,但我在此强调,其最终结果可能是悲惨的。这个奖振作了改革家的精神,但它也调动了反对一方远大得多的力量。

Every October, many the world over hail the Nobel Committee for its brave and inspired choice. But it is the truly brave activists on the ground who are left to bear the consequences when anxious leaders bring the state’s terrible power down on them.

每年十月,世界各地的许多人为诺贝尔委员会勇敢而令人鼓舞的选择欢呼。但是,当焦虑的领袖们拿出国家机器的可怕力量时,却是那些真正勇敢的在现场的活动家们被留下来承担后果。

 

And what happens when the Nobel Peace Prize actually helps to promote political change? As state counsellor (prime minister) of Myanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi has presided over the bloody persecution of the Rohingya and a swiftly mounting international refugee crisis. The admired dissident has, in power, turned out not to be so great a promoter of peace and tolerance.

当诺贝尔和平奖真在帮助促进政治变革时又会发生什么呢?作为缅甸的国务资政(形同总理),昂山素季已需要为其对罗兴亚人的血腥迫害和不断升高的国际难民危机负责。为人钦佩的异见人士一当权,就证明了她原来并不是那么一个伟大的和平与宽容的推动者。

The Nobel Peace Prize Committee’s choices have been noble – but, as my research suggests, also sometimes naïve.

诺贝尔和平奖委员会的选择是高尚的,但如同我的研究表明的,有时也是幼稚的。