原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:神刀 转载请注明出处
论坛地址:http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-464347-1-1.html

China rising

中国崛起



The Great Man Theory of history simply says that great leaders with charisma, intelligence, wisdom and political skills immensely shape their country and the world through their monumental and game-changing acts and decisions. It was popular in the 19th century but from the 20th century forward, it had lost its currency.

伟人历史理论简单地说,就是具有领袖魅力、智慧、学识和政治技巧的伟大领袖,通过他们不朽的、改变游戏规则的行为和决策,极大地塑造了他们的国家和世界。它在19世纪很流行,但从20世纪开始,它已经失去了光彩。

The rise of Mr. Trump has somewhat pushed political scientists into digging it up from the archives, but with the agenda to stress to what low great powers could sink once they are led by ineffectual leaders.

特朗普的崛起让政治学家把它从档案中挖掘出来,但强调的却是,一旦由无能的领导人领导,这些大国可能会陷入何种程度的危机。

Applied to Mr. Trump, according to an American political scientist, the Great Man Theory has a new version – The Great Jackass Theory. The body of Mr. Trump’s policy preferences, building a border wall, shunning immigrants, trade protectionism, abetting white supremacists and quarrelling with Iran and North Korea will transform America from a global leader into an inward-looking nation, if not a wingnut isolationist like North Korea, Mr. Trump’s pet peeve.

根据一位美国政治学家的说法,对特朗普来说,伟人论有一个新版本——蠢人理论。特朗普的政策偏好、建立边境墙、回避移民、贸易保护主义、煽动白人至上主义者,以及与伊朗和朝鲜的争吵,将把美国从一个全球领导人转变为一个内向型的国家:像朝鲜(特朗普先生的忌讳)这样的孤立主义的国家。

The results of the 31st Asean Summit in Manila proved that. After the summit was over, State Secretary Rex Tillerson was asked by journalists to assess the validity of Mr. Trump’s statement that the Summit was a success for “ me” and for “America.” Instead of playing full supplicant and agreeing with the statement of Mr. Trump, Secretary Tillerson ignored the question and merely said, “ Thank You,” to prevent a follow-through question from being asked.

第31届东盟峰会的结果证明了这一点。峰会结束后,美国国务卿雷克斯蒂勒森被记者要求评估特朗普声称这次峰会是“我”和“美国”的成功这种声明的正确性。蒂勒森没有捧臭脚附和特朗普的说法,而是忽略了这个问题,只说了声“谢谢”,来阻止后续问题被问到。

American experts on trade and diplomacy said that the $300 billion in deals that Mr. Trump supposedly negotiated during the Summit were just words, not real deals.

美国在贸易和外交方面的专家表示,特朗普在峰会期间通过谈判达成的3000亿美元交易只是口头上的,而不是真正的交易。

“The principal takeaway from Trump’s big Asia trip: virtually zero on any issue that matters to Americans. Ultimately, that is the biggest win for China,” Ian Bremmer , president of the Eurasia Group, was quoted in the Politico magazine as saying .

“特朗普在亚洲之行的主要收获:在任何事关美国的问题上,几乎都是零。最终,这是中国最大的胜利”Politico杂志援引Ian Bremmer的话说,他是Eurasia集团的主席。

And while Mr. Trump was literally wined and dined, and our President Duterte serenaded him, the issue that mattered most to Americans – the US at the forefront of the global trading order – had been abandoned by Trump soon after taking office, by pulling the US out of the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership.

虽然特朗普受到热情款待,我们的总统杜特尔特对其大唱赞歌,但事关美国最重要的事务--美国在全球贸易秩序中的中心地位--被特朗普入住白宫不久后就抛弃了,并将美国从12国跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)拉了出来。

At the Summit, while the 11 countries that remained with the TPP after Trump’s go-it-alone announcement vowed to strengthen and expand their trade ties, there was no solid action that the US took to start bilateral trade agreements with the 11 countries solidly with the TPP. Worse for the US, other countries may join in, including the Philippines, South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia to bring the TPP membership to 15 countries.

在峰会上,在特朗普的“独行”宣言后,仍有11个国家承诺要加强和扩大贸易关系,但美国却没有采取切实行动,与11个坚定支持TPP的国家展开双边贸易协定。对美国来说,更糟糕的是,其他国家可能加入,包括菲律宾、韩国、泰国和印度尼西亚,将TPP成员国扩大到15个国家。

What about Mr. Trump’s big campaign promise to “rebalance” trade relations with China? After he was feted in Beijing before coming to Manila, Mr. Trump failed to take a single concrete step toward that promise of “rebalancing.”

特朗普在竞选中承诺要“重新平衡”与中国的贸易关系,这又如何呢?在来到马尼拉之前,特朗普在北京受到了盛情款待,但他未能在实现“再平衡”的承诺上采取具体措施。

As Mr. Trump descended into an all-time low at home – only 40 percent of voters say they will vote for Mr. Trump, and his approval rating is now down to 37 percent – China’s Xi Jinping is taking his country to a 21st century with China, not the US, as the dominant global power. Mr. Xi is quietly basking in Mr. Trump’s abandonment of the traditional US role of global leadership and the ceding of that role to China. With the US out of TPP, China is the de facto leader of that trading bloc and the policies laid out by Mr. Xi are all directed at propping up, and expanding, that leadership.

特朗普在国内的支持率跌至历史最低点——只有40%的选民说他们会投票给特朗普,他的支持率现在降到了百分之三十七,中国正在把他的国家带到了二十一世纪,而中国,不是美国,是世界的主宰力量。中国对特朗普放弃美国在全球领导地位的传统角色,以及将该角色拱手让给中国,都是默默的享受。随着美国退出TPP,中国实际上是这个贸易集团的实际领导者,而中国制定的政策都是针对支持和扩大这种领导地位的。

Put into operations in late 2015, The China-led and China-founded Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB) has 56 member-states and a $100 billion capital. It is a multilateral development bank just like the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank, but its avowed mission of supporting the infrastructure build-up of fund-short member-countries has a side agenda of moving countries further into the China Axis.

在2015年底投入运营,由中国主导的、由中国建立的亚洲基础设施和投资银行(亚投行)拥有56个成员国和1000亿美元的资本。它是一家多边开发银行,就像亚洲开发银行和世界银行一样,但它的使命是支援资金短缺成员国的基础设施建设,这是推动各国进一步靠近中国轴心的一个侧面议程。

The bank’s outreach involves moving Chinese engineers, Chinese construction methodologies, Chinese equipment and Chinese finance people into the member-states as part of the support group of AIIB.

亚投行的延展包括将中国工程师,中国建筑方式,中国设备和中国金融人员移入成员国作为亚投行支援的一部分。

China’s more ambitious foray into what is now known as geoeconomics is being pursued via the OBOR, or One Belt, One Road Initiative. The ambitious infrastructure build-up covers the regions China traded with during the Silk Road trade. A Eurasian Land Bridge will be built that would run from Western China to Western Russia via Kazakhstan. The Maritime Silk Road will build seaports, supported by roads and bridges, from the China Coast, then to Singapore to the Mediterranean.

中国正在通过“一带一路”(One Belt,One Road Initiative)的方式,进军目前所称的地缘经济领域。雄心勃勃的基础设施建设覆盖了中国在丝绸之路贸易中所交易的地区。一座欧亚大陆桥将从中国西部延伸至俄罗斯西部,途经哈萨克斯坦。海上丝绸之路将建造海港,由公路和桥梁支撑,从中国海岸到新加坡再到地中海。

The geopolitical environment favors Mr. Xi and China.

地缘政治环境有利于中国

Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin are busy stirring up the nativist urges of their white population and are now contesting who would lead their imaginary Judeo-Christian world purged of races black, brown and yellow.

特朗普和普京正忙着煽动本国白人的本土主义冲动,现在正在角逐谁将领导他们想象中的犹太基督教世界,清除黑人、棕黄色和黄色人种。

Mr. Xi speaks of continental integration under China’s leadership, with “new technologies, new business models, new business patterns and new products.”

谈到了中国领导下的“大陆整合”,包括“新技术、新商业模式、新商业模式和新产品”。

As Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump bask in dark engagements, Mr. Xi is precisely defining the leadership terms of the 21st century and beyond.

在普京和特朗普沐浴在黑暗之中的时候,中国正在准确地定义21世纪和未来的领导地位。

OK, let us answer this question: How does that impact us, our country, in the broader sense? The answer is in plain sight. China is utterly pragmatic and its leadership is devoid of altruism. When it deals with us, it has national interest, not PH interest, on the agenda.

好,现在让我们来回答这个问题:这对我们,我们的国家,更广泛的意义是什么? 答案显而易见,中国是一个非常务实的国家,它的领导层缺乏利他主义。当它与我们打交道时,唯有(中国的)国家利益,而不是PH(菲律宾)利益。