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Trump misses target with China onslaught: experts

专家:川普对中国的抨击搞错了方向

Julien GIRAULT 
AFP December 7, 2016

法新社记者 朱利恩吉罗



US President-elect Donald Trump accuses China of keeping its yuan currency artificially low and slapping unfair taxes on American exports.

美国当选总统唐纳德川普指控中国故意压低人民币汇率,并且抨击中国对美国出口的商品征收不公平的税率。

However, analysts say Beijing is in fact struggling to prop up the yuan as capital flows out of China's flagging economy in search of better investments in the United States.

然而与此相反,分析师说,实际上北京正在挣扎着试图保住人民币币值,因为资本正在流出中国衰弱的经济并试图在美国找到更好的投资机会。

"Did China ask us if it was OK to due their currency (making it hard for our companies to compete), heavily tax our products going into their country (the US doesn't tax them)?" Trump wrote Sunday in a Twitter outburst.

“中国有没有问过我们,是否可以让人民币贬值(使我们的公司难以与其竞争),是否可以对我们出口到他们国家的商品课以重税(美国并没有对他们这样做)?”川普周日在一条推特上爆发了。

"I don't think so!"

“没有!”

- Close controls -

严格的控制

China keeps close controls on its currency, allowing it to fluctuate within a two percent margin from a point fixed by the central bank each day.

中国对其货币有严格的控制,只允许在其央行每天修正的一个汇率上下2个百分点范围内波动。

And its value has been steadily dropping for over a year.

而人民币的币值在超过1年的时间里持续下跌。

The yuan, also known as the renminbi, is currently at an eight-year low of 6.89 to the dollar.

人民币,又被称为元,目前对美元汇率处在8年低点6.89。

Yet the evidence suggests the currency is over, not under, valued.

然而,证据表明,人民币不是被估值过低,而是被估值过高了。

On August 2015, the People's Bank of China announced a surprise five percent duation of the yuan. Since then, the currency has fallen another six percent.

在2015年8月,中国人民银行令人惊讶的宣布人民币贬值5个百分点。自那之后,币值又下跌了6个百分点。

The initial duation, Beijing said, was intended to make the yuan trade closer to its market value as the country lobbied to have the unit join the International Monetary Fund's elite basket of currencies -- not help exporters, as Trump claims.

北京说,主动贬值是为了在其游说让人民币加入国际货币基金组织的一揽子货币时,人民币能以更接近市场的价格交易——而非像川普所说的那样帮助出口。

But downward pressure proved to be stronger than expected, and since that time the PBoC has been scrambling to prop it up.

但是下跌的压力被证明比预期的强烈,从那时起人民银行就一直忙着挺住币值。

China is hemorrhaging foreign currency reserves. Data released on Wednesday show they plunged by $69 billion in November alone.

中国正在损失大量外汇储备。周三披露的数据显示光11月份一个月就减少了690亿美元。

China has spent that money on buying back its own currency, analysts say, in an effort to keep the yuan's value artificially higher.

分析师说中国把这些外汇储备用来买回自己的货币,试图通过干预保住人民币币值。

China prefers to see "the yuan strengthen, or at least be stable", to avoid volatility that compromises the currency's evolving internationalisation, Credit Agricole analyst Dariusz Kowalczyk said.

法国农业信贷银行分析师Dariusz Kowalczyk说,中国更希望看到“人民币能坚挺,至少能保持稳定”,在妥协让其货币国际化的过程中避免不确定性。

Meanwhile, the US dollar is soaring on expectations Trump will embark on an infrastructure spending spree that would fan inflation and force the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates.

同时,在川普将大手笔进行基础建设投资的预期下,美元大涨,这将加速通胀并迫使美联储提高利率。

That expectation is fuelling demand for US assets -- causing capital to flee China and other emerging markets.

这种预期刺激了对美国资产的需求——使得资本逃离中国和其他新兴市场。

Capital flight from China is estimated by Bloomberg at some $1 trillion in 2015 and continuing in 2016, despite recent efforts by Beijing to tighten restrictions on currency flows.

彭博估计,2015年流出中国的资本有约一万亿美元,2016年仍将继续,虽然北京最近进一步收紧了对于货币流动的限制。

The stricter controls have concerned foreign companies, which are reportedly having trouble moving money out of China.

更加严格的外汇管控引起了外企的担心,据报道他们在把钱汇出中国时遇到麻烦。

China's economy meanwhile is already growing at its slowest rate in a quarter of a century.

中国经济增长目前已经处于最近25年以来低点。

"I smell more capital controls (to come), which run against any hopes of reform or internationalisation of the yuan or a sharp drop in the yuan," said Michael Every, head of financial markets research at Rabobank NA in Hong Kong.

“我认为会有更多资本管控措施(将出台),这与任何改革、人民币国际化,以及人民币暴跌的希望相左。”荷兰合作银行金融市场研究主管Michael Every在香港说。

"And all these fun and games come before we have even seen President Trump."

“所有这些快乐与游戏发生在我们看到川普总统登台前。”

- Protectionist threat -

保护主义的威胁

Trump takes office in January, after loudly blaming China and free-trade deals for job losses and declining wages in America.

在大声指责中国和自由贸易协定是(美国的)工作岗位流失的罪魁祸首后,川普将在1月份入主白宫。

His pledge to ramp up import duties stems from his belief that China continues to "heavily tax our products going into their country".

基于他认为中国一直“对我们出口到他们国家的货物课以重税”,他誓言将提高进口税率壁垒。

Cars imported to China are subject to a tax of more than 25 percent, on top of which Beijing recently slapped an extra 10 percent levy targeting luxury vehicles.

进口到中国的汽车要被收超过25%的税,并且北京新近对于豪华进口车还要另外加收10%的税。

The duties follow World Trade Organisation rules, China says.

中国宣称这些税符合世贸组织规则。

Cars imported into the US are taxed around 2.5 percent -- but Trump has proposed raising this to 35 percent and possibly to 45 percent for products from China.

而进口到美国的汽车,税率在2.5%左右——但是川普提议把从中国进口的汽车税率提高到35%甚至可能是45%。

Looking to boost domestic consumption, in 2015 Beijing slashed tariffs on a range of imported products, from shoes to cosmetics and certain items of clothing.

为了刺激国内消费,2015年北京对于大范围的进口商品进行了减税,包括鞋子,化妆品,和某些种类的服装。

But if Trump follows through on his plans to implement protectionist measures, none of that will save the Chinese currency, said Rabobank's Every: "The yuan has further to fall."

但是如果川普继续抛出他的计划来实施保护主义举措,这将肯定不会对人民币汇率有什么好处。
荷兰合作银行的Every说:“人民币还还会继续跌”。