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Yes, China has wonbig from U.S. trade

没错,中美贸易,中国大胜。

by Heather Long   @byHeatherLongApril24, 2016: 8:48 AM ET


 
America's middle class is deeplyconcerned about jobs, pay and their future, and many of them are blaming China.

美国的中产阶级对自己工作、工资和前途都非常担心,他们不少人认为这都是中国的原因。

In the U.S., 43% of voters believe trade with other countries is a badthing, according to the Pew Research Center. It's not that hard to understand why.

据皮尤研究中心调查统计,美国有43%的选民认为,同其他国家贸易不是什么好事情。原因不难理解。

China's middle class is booming while America's middle class is stagnating.A typical family in China has experienced the "Asian miracle," anastonishing 70% bump in their income from 1988 to 2008.

因为中国中产阶级正在蓬勃发展,而美国中产阶级(的增长)正在停滞。一个典型的中国家庭已经历过“亚洲奇迹”,从1988年到2008年,他们的收入猛长70%。

But the middle class in the U.S. and across the developed world hasstagnated: incomes rose a mere 4% over that 20-year same period, according toeconomist Branko Milanovic. He studies pay and wealth around the world and justpublished a new book, "GlobalInequality."
The Asian middle class miracle

而美国以及整个发达国家的中产阶级(增长)均已停滞,据经济学家布兰科·米兰诺维克研究,同期20年(美国人)的收入增长,仅有4%。布兰科·米兰诺维克对世界各地的薪酬与财产状况进行过研究,并刚刚出版了一本新书,《全球不平等》。



To be clear, a Chinese middle class family still earns around $8,000 ayear, a lot less than the typical U.S. household income of about $54,000,according to the World Bank. But theChinese aregetting richer at a much faster rate.

但要清楚的是,据世界银行统计,一个中国中产阶级家庭每年收入只有8000美元,比起美国中产阶级54000美元的收入要少得多。但中国富人增长速度越来越快。

Consulting firm McKinsey predicts that by 2022, the majority of China's urbanmiddle class will earn $9,000 to $34,000 a year. They are embracing all thetrappings of a better life: eating out more, vacationing around the world andbuying new cars.

据麦肯锡咨询公司预测,到2022年,中国多数大城市的中产阶级每年收入将涨至9000至34000美元。他们会达到象征美好生活的全部标准,譬如,外出就餐,周游世界,买新车更频繁了。

Compare that to the U.S. where even people who have jobs worry they are one step awayfrom financialruin. Expenses are going up,but a typical family earns about the same amount of money now as they did inthe mid-1990s.

相比美国,即使有工作的人,他们也摆脱不了债务(financial ruin)烦恼。各种开销都在上涨,而且一个典型的(美国)家庭自90年代中期以来,他们的收入基本没发生变化。

Milanovic says the Chinese are hardly alone in celebrating better lives.The middle class in India, Thailand, Vietnam and other parts of Asia have alsoseen their bank accounts swell in the past three decades.

米拉诺维奇说,并不是只有中国一家在庆祝美好生活。印度、泰国、越南等一些亚洲地区国家的中产阶级,过去三十年里他们在银行的储蓄也有大幅增加。

"Globalization is a good force, but you're not going to sellglobalization to your domestic population by telling them how good it is forChina," says Milanovic.

“推动全球化是有好处的,但你不可能对国内百姓讲中国因此获益良多,来推销全球化。米拉诺维奇说道。

He can't prove that trade and globalization caused Asia's middle class tosurge and the middle class in the U.S. to stall, but he says it's a very"plausible story."

他无法证明,是贸易和全球化使亚洲中产阶级激增,而使得美国的中产阶级原地踏步,但他说这是一个相当“可信的故事”。

  To be clear, a Chinese middleclass family still earns around $8,000 a year, a lot less than the typical U.S.

要清楚的是,一个中国中产阶级家庭每年收入只有8000美元,这可比美国的要少得多。

The appeal of Donald Trump

特朗普的魅力

America's lower middle class is frustrated, and many are gravitating topresidential candidate Donald Trump, who vows to fix "America'sdisastrous trade policies" and bring jobs back from China andMexico.

处于中产阶级边缘的美国人有种挫败感,因此有不少人都被总统候选人特朗普所吸引,他誓言要改善“美国的灾难性的贸易政策”,从中国和墨西哥拿回就业机会。

Over 65% of Trump supporters think free trade is raw deal, according toPew Research.

据皮尤调查,有超过60%的特朗普的支持者认为自由贸易是一种原始贸易(规则)。

"The problem with trade is the losers know they're losing and thewinners don't know they're winning," says Veronique de Rugy, an economistand senior fellow at George Mason University's Mercatus Center.

贸易问题,是输家知道他们要输了,而赢家却不知道他们要赢了。经济学家、乔治梅森大学研究中心资深研究员,Veroniquede Rugy说道。

More people are victors from globalization, even in the U.S., de Rugyargues, but that story is harder to tell.

有更多的人在全球化中取得了成功,即使在美国,de Rugy说,但这个故事很难说出口。


 
Global poverty is down

全球贫困人口下降

Global poverty is at its lowest level inhistory. For the first time, less than 10% of the planet is livingin extreme poverty, currently defined as $1.90 a day or less, according to theWorld Bank. It's a huge achievement and has been praised across the politicalspectrum.

全球贫困达到了历史最低水平。据世界银行统计,地球上赤贫人口首次降到不到10%,目前赤贫的标准为每天1.90美元或更少。这是一个相当巨大的成就,而且在政治上受到普遍赞扬。

"It's little comfort to say to someone who last lost their job,'well, you should be really happy because people who are really poor are nowmuch less poor,'" says Milanovic.

“对那些丢了工作的人来说这算是一丝安慰,好吧,你应当就穷人变得越来越少而因此感到高兴,” 米拉诺维奇说道。

So while the majority of people in developing nations appear to bebenefiting from globalization (the extreme poor, especially in Africa, are theexception), the results in the U.S. vary depending upon how rich or poor youare.

所以,尽管发展中国家中的大多数人似乎都受益于全球化(极端贫困,尤其是非洲例外),但在美国成功的结果则取决于你有多富或是多穷。

The more affluent (think incomes around $80,000 and above) have seen theirincomespop 30% to 60%, according to Milanovic's research.
Meanwhile, the lower middle class and poor in the U.S. have barely gottenany benefit.

较为富裕的(通常认为收入约80000美元以上)会发现他们的收入猛涨30%至60%,据米拉诺维奇研究。但与此同时,美国中下层阶级和穷人几乎没有得到任何好处。

CNNMoney (New York)First published April24, 2016: 8:48 AM ET