QA:虽然有人说伊朗对以色列的袭击是一次战略失败，但我们怎么知道伊朗这样做不是为了迷惑以色列？

Eric Wicklund
It’s not a strategic failure. I’d say Iran achieved their obxtive. They wanted to launch an attack for the domestic Iranian audience, but telegraphed it well in advance, so Israel/Allies could stop it, and prevent unwanted bloodshed.
Iran’s attack isn’t trying to be confusing. Their message is extraordinarily clear. This is geopolitical posturing that simultaneously appears aggressive and strong, yet also says, “I’m gonna do this thing to maintain my honor, but I don’t really want to fight.”

这不是战略上的失败。我认为伊朗实现了他们的目标。
他们发动袭击的目的，是为了让伊朗国内的观众看到，但提前给了通知，这样以色列和他们的盟友就可以阻止袭击，防止不必要的流血事件。
伊朗的袭击并不是想要迷惑以色列。他们传达的信息非常清晰。这是一种地缘政治姿态，为了显得咄咄逼人和强硬，同时也是为了表示：“我会做这件事来维护我的荣誉，但我真的不想战斗。”

In Native-American traditions, there was such a thing as “Counting Coup.” Battles didn’t always have to result in bloodshed and death. Sometimes, simply touching the enemy in battle was enough to establish honor and bravery in a warrior. They didn’t have to kill, just do something to prove that they could be very dangerous.
I think counting coup is what Iran is doing here. Israel, is now duty bound to do the same. So, we’ll likely see a response. Israel is clearly taking their time to think about how to respond. If they get it right, then Iran will protest publicly, and then privately, heave a sigh of relief that the whole dirty business concluded without too much damage.

在美国原住民的传统中，有一种叫做“计数政变”的说法。战争并不总是会导致流血和死亡。有时，在战斗中，仅仅是触摸敌人，就足以在战士身上树立荣誉和勇气。他们不必杀人，只需做一些事情来证明自己可能非常危险。
我认为伊朗在这里所做的就是计数政变。以色列现在也有义务这样做。因此，我们很可能会看到回应。以色列显然正在慢慢考虑如何应对。如果他们做对了，那么伊朗将公开抗议，然后在没有造成太大损害的情况下私下里做点肮脏的交易，并为此松一口气。
计数政变：表现自己的勇敢，获得威望，打击敌人自尊心，但不伤害敌人身体。包括：恐吓、说服对方承认自己的失败等等。

CE Iannuzzi
Everyone wants a PR success.
The basic attack was mostly just dummy drones and cruise missiles, and then a few ballistic missiles to hit IDF military installations out in the desert.
The IDF now claims that intercepting the attack cost them over a billion dollars.
From an Iranian perspective, it wasn’t a failure. It showed that they can use drone and cruise missile swarms to overwhelm the US’s and IDF’s air defenses in the region. And if they really want to attack Israel to do damage, they will need to use ballistic missiles.
But think about the other side of that—that a few million dollars in dummy drones invokes a billion dollar response. LOL.
I think we pretty much knew that all along though.

每个国家都希望获得公关上的成功。
基础的攻击，大多是无人机和巡航导弹，然后是几枚弹道导弹，击中了沙漠中的以色列国防军军事设施。
以色列国防军现在声称，拦截这次袭击使他们损失了10多亿美元。
从伊朗的角度来看，这并不是一次失败。它表明，他们可以使用无人机和巡航导弹群来压倒美国和以色列国防军在该地区的防空系统。如果他们真的想攻击以色列并造成破坏，他们将需要使用弹道导弹。
但想想另一方面——应对数百万美元的无人机，需要花费数十亿美元。哈哈哈。
我想我们一直都知道这一点。
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Doug
Iran’s attack on Israel served the regime’s purposes. They cannot very well show weakness by letting the Israelis kill some of the generals they’d sent to kill Israelis. So they fire off a bunch of missiles and cheer. Now they’ve shown strength. Whether or not the missiles got anything.
But there’s a second purpose. They learned a lot about Israeli defenses. If they decide in the end on war, they have a better idea of what is and is not possible.

伊朗对以色列的攻击符合该政权的目的。以色列人杀掉了他们派去杀害以色列人的将军，伊朗不能表现得软弱。所以他们发射了一堆导弹并为此欢呼。现在他们展现出了力量。不管导弹有没有炸毁任何东西。
但还有第二个目的。他们学到了很多关于以色列防御的知识。如果他们最终决定战争，他们会更好地了解什么是不可能的。

Zaheer Hussain
To me it looks more successful than many pro-Israeli think.
Iran informed many countries 72 hours before attack thus its impossible that information hadn't reached UK USA or Israel. Thus Israel knew very well in advance about attack and was fully prepared. British PM is also on record saying that UK specially SENT RAF to defend Israel. Means that ISRAEL ALONE CAN NOT FIGHT. So in extended war can it fight and how long. After 1967 & 1973 Israel never fought a war but small fights with Hizbullah in 2006. Even there it got a defeat & was forced to end two decades of occupation of South Lebanon.
Iranian Foreign Minister is on record saying they didnt target civilian areas. Thus no visible destruction like Israeli actions show in Gaza. But next time Iran may not follow this policy.
SUCCESS is that IRANIAN MISSILES REACHED ISRAEL.
The impact of Israel as the only and dominant power in mideast is smashed. It has boosted the morale of Palestinian. One could see on TV channels how they came out and celebrated on streets of broken Gaza. It will create more confidence in Hizbullah & Houthis. In wars its high-moral that matters most.
Success is that it broke the hype on western media which showed all the time that Iran is far behind the world and technologically very poor. All ‘Made in Iran’ will increase its market value.

在我看来，这次行动比许多亲以色列的人想象的更成功。
伊朗在袭击发生前72小时通知了许多国家，因此信息不可能没有到达英国、美国或以色列。因此，以色列很早就知道了这次袭击，并做好了充分的准备。
英国首相还公开表示，英国特意派遣了英国皇家空军保卫了以色列。意味着以色列不能单独作战。所以，在长期的战争中，以色列可以坚持多久？
1967年和1973年之后，以色列从未打过一场战争，只是在2006年与真主党进行了小规模的战斗。即使是这样的战斗，它也失败了，被迫结束了对黎巴嫩南部20年的占领。
伊朗外交部长公开表示，他们没有针对平民区。因此，没有像以色列在加沙的行动那样，造成明显的破坏。但下一次伊朗可能不会遵循这一政策。
成功是伊朗导弹抵达了以色列。
这次的行动打破了以色列是中东地区唯一和占主导地位的力量的影响力。它鼓舞了巴勒斯坦人的士气。人们可以在电视频道上看到他们是如何在破碎的加沙街头出来庆祝的。这将给真主党和胡塞带来更多的信心。在战争中，站在道义制高点是最重要的。
成功的地方在于，它打破了西方媒体一直以来的炒作，即伊朗远远落后于世界，技术非常落后。所有的“伊朗制造”都将增加其市场价值。

Pete Singh
It was a strategic failure because the Islamic Republic of Iran did expect to cause some casualties & damage to infrastructure.
However, Iran had to be careful in their targets for three reasons: avoid hitting holy city of Jerusalem, avoid hitting the Arab settlements & not escalate.
Israel has won the argument. It defended itself, got support of many countries (inc Arab some states) & given Israel green light to target inside Iran.
Whole war has now changed from a Hamas v Israel to a Shia Iran v anti-Iran alliance. Iran is now worried about internal escalation (anti-Islamists, separatists, etc).

这是一次战略失败，因为伊朗的确是想要造成一些人员伤亡和基础设施损坏。
然而，伊朗必须谨慎对待他们的目标，原因有三：避免袭击圣城耶路撒冷，避免袭击阿拉伯定居点，避免冲突升级。
以色列赢得了这场争论。它保卫了自己，得到了许多国家（包括阿拉伯国家）的支持，并为以色列瞄准伊朗国内的行为开了绿灯。
整个战争现在已经从哈马斯 VS 以色列,变成了伊朗什叶派 VS 反伊朗联盟。伊朗现在需要担心内部冲突升级（反伊斯兰主义者、分裂主义者等）

YD
Some people cannot accept losing. Any other country including U S hit with the amount of drones, rockets and missiles would of suffered huge lose of lives and destruction. The Iranian attack on Israel hit a wall of state of the art defense system that no other nation posses.
The Iranian tried to cause severe damages and failed to do so.

有些人不能接受失败。
任何其他国家，包括美国，都有可能在遭受大量无人机、火箭和导弹的袭击后，造成巨大的生命损失和破坏。
伊朗对以色列的袭击碰壁了。因为他们遭遇了其他国家所没有的最先进的防御系统。
伊朗人试图造成严重损失，但没有成功。

Syed Mehdi
It was deliberately a drama by Iran. They used very simple weapons and also informed everyone including Israel and USA and the countries airspace they used. It meant a restricted performance to let others know know that they are capable. It also cost Israel 1.5 billion dollars. It was win win for both. But then Israel is a spoiled child and can’t be controlled. It’s up to Israel to how far they want to plunge the world in to a bigger war.

这是伊朗故意制造的一场闹剧。他们使用了非常简单的武器，还通知了包括以色列和美国在内的所有需要使用他们领空的国家。
这意味着，这是一场限制性的表演，让其他人知道他们有能力。它还花费了以色列15亿美元。这是双方的双赢。
但以色列是一个被宠坏的孩子，无法控制。以色列想让世界陷入一场更大的战争中。

Kai
That's pure propaganda. Something like this has never been done in modern history. Israel and the US are scared shitless. US has came out and said they will not support Israel in an attack against Iran.
First of all, Iran has hypersonic missiles that can hit Israel in 400 seconds and are very hard to stop. Hezbollah, Iraqi, and Syrian resistance can also hit Israel in no time at all. Instead they began by sending slow moving drones from Iran to warn Israel and give them hours to prepare and call allies.
The attack cost them 10s of millions, but cost Israel and its allies billions to defend against it. They could've kept up the attack all day if they wanted and at a higher intensity. Most of the missiles they used were old slow moving ones that could easily be shot down. Some of their expensive missiles hit bases by confusing their iron dome. They hit an airbase which was used to bomb the consulate and Gaza.
They only targeted military installations because they didn't want to start a war, only show Israel and the US that they better not try anything stupid. Since no one died, Israel can say it was a “successful defense” and everyone can go home looking like winners. Whether Netanyahu takes the hint or not is a different story.

失败纯粹是宣传。这样的事情在现代史上从未发生过。以色列和美国怕得要死。美国公开表示，他们不会支持以色列对伊朗发动袭击。
首先，伊朗拥有高超音速导弹，可以在400秒内击中以色列，而且很难阻止。真主党、伊拉克和叙利亚的抵抗也可能在短时间内袭击以色列。但事实是，他们在最开始只是从伊朗派遣行动缓慢的无人机警告以色列，并给了他们几个小时的时间做准备和打电话给盟友。
这次袭击使他们损失了1000万美元，但以色列及其盟友为此付出了数十亿美元的防御代价。如果他们愿意，他们本可以以更高的强度持续一整天的袭击。
他们使用的大多数导弹都是移动缓慢的老式导弹，很容易被击落。他们的一些昂贵的导弹在铁穹的视线被混淆后击中了基地。他们袭击了一个用来轰炸领事馆和加沙的空军基地。
他们只是针对军事设施，因为他们不想发动战争，只是为了向以色列和美国表明，他们最好不要尝试任何愚蠢的事情。由于没有人死亡，以色列可以说这是一次“成功的防御”，每个人都可以像胜利者一样回家。至于内塔尼亚胡是否接受了暗示，这就是另外一件事情了。

Harry
Israel currently has become a nation that is always looking for war. A liberal Israeli Jewish friend of mine once told me that Israel is becoming more & more hardline extremist and there is no room for straight thinking people there. As such, the extremist Zionists are always look for not just war but for victories even if it is against babies in cribs, to prove they are better than liberal Jews.
With this attack, Iran has proven the point that Israel is not untouchable. But this time they had informed USA, China, Russia & neighbours in advance what they are going to do. They had support of most UN members. It was all around good response by Iran, and Israel looks like a spoilt bully.

以色列目前已经成为一个总是寻求战争的国家。我的一位自由派以色列犹太朋友曾告诉我，以色列正变成越来越强硬的极端主义者，那里没有思想正直的人的容身之地。极端犹太复国主义者总是不仅寻求战争，而且寻求胜利。就算是要针对在婴儿床上的婴儿，他们也要证明他们比自由派犹太人更好。
通过这次袭击，伊朗已经证明了以色列不是不可触碰的。但这一次，他们提前通知了美国、中国、俄罗斯和邻国，他们将要做什么。
他们得到了大多数联合国成员国的支持。这一切都是伊朗的良好回应，而以色列看起来就像一个被宠坏的恶霸。