俄罗斯如何解决向印度出售石油换回的大量印度卢比？
Russia has a huge amount of Indian rupees from the sale of oil to India. What will be the solution for this?
译文简介
网友：我想，既然这些卢比被困在印度银行，俄罗斯不如去收购宝莱坞。
那里制作的爱国电影一定会充满活力和振奋人心。
正文翻译
网友：我想，既然这些卢比被困在印度银行，俄罗斯不如去收购宝莱坞。
那里制作的爱国电影一定会充满活力和振奋人心。
那里制作的爱国电影一定会充满活力和振奋人心。
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Billions of rupees that belong to Russia are stuck in accounts in India. Over 30 billions in US dollars.
India was buying a lot of Russian oil and paid in rupee, their national currency. Russia doesn’t buy that much in India, and the amount of Russia’s money in Indian banks keeps growing.
It cannot be exchanged for another currency within India or exported abroad — without the permission of the Indian Central Bank. And the Indian Central Bank refuses to allow it.
Some say that’s the reason why ruble is falling.
Ruble is already cheaper than rupee.
俄罗斯在印度的账户中被滞留了数十亿卢比。超过300亿美元。
印度一直在大量购买俄罗斯石油,并用卢比(印度国家货币)支付。但俄罗斯在印度的采购却很少,导致俄罗斯在印度银行的资金不断增加。
这些资金无法在印度境内兑换成其他货币或者汇出国外,除非获得印度央行的许可。而印度央行拒绝批准这种兑换和汇出。
有人说这就是卢布下跌的原因之一。
目前卢布的汇率已经低于卢比。
There was a big scandal in the Kremlin because of the stash of rupees that Russia can’t use. Presidential administration was trying to figure out who was the genius who came up with the idea of trading with India in its national currency, which is inconvertible.
Lavrov was sent to G20 with the task to sort it out.
由于俄罗斯无法使用大量印度卢比而引发了克里姆林宫的一场巨大丑闻。总统办公室正试图找出是谁提出了用俄罗斯国内不可兑换的货币与印度进行交易的天才想法。
拉夫罗夫被派到二十国集团会议,任务是要解决这个问题。
After begging and pleading, Lavrov reported: India promised to offer “promising projects for investing rupees”.
In other words:
India received Russian oil.
Paid for the oil in rupees.
Rupees remained in Indian banks.
And now they will return to the Indian economy.
It’s a master class on the topic “How to extract multi-billion dollar profits from Russia’s superiority complex”.
经过一番恳求和哀求，拉夫罗夫报告说：印度承诺提供“有利可图的卢比投资项目”。
换句话说：
印度接收了俄罗斯的石油。
用卢比支付了石油款项。
卢比资金留在印度银行。
现在这些卢比将重新流回印度经济。
这简直是“如何从俄罗斯的优越感中榨取数十亿美元利润”的大师级课程。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, and Head of Russia’s foreign ministry Lavrov.
（图片：印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪和俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫）
Patriotic films created there will be bright and exhilarating.
我想，既然这些卢比被困在印度银行，俄罗斯不如去收购宝莱坞。
那里制作的爱国电影一定会充满活力和振奋人心。
The heroes of the Northern Military District, to the songs of Shaman, will brilliantly defeat NATO and conquer the solar system!
在萨满的歌曲声中，北方军区的英雄们将英勇地击败北约，征服整个太阳系！
In the wake of the Ukraine and Russia war and US sanctions on the use of dollars for payments to Russia and Iran, the RBI in July 2022 allowed settlement for import and export of goods and services in rupee.
Imports from Russia in India averaged 85.72 INR Billion from 2014 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 496.20 INR Billion in May of 2023 .
India is using Chinese yuan to pay for 10% of its Russian oil imports, rest in rupee and dirham.
因为乌克兰和俄罗斯之间爆发战争，同时美国对向俄罗斯和伊朗支付美金的行为采取制裁，印度央行在2022年7月允许用卢比结算货物和服务的进出口。
从2014年到2023年，印度从俄罗斯的年度进口金额平均为857.2亿印度卢比，在2023年5月达到49620亿印度卢比的历史高点。
印度用人民币向俄罗斯支付10%的石油进口金额，其余部分用卢比和迪拉姆支付。
India has rejected a proposal supported by Russia to allow Iran to import Indian goods and pay for it using Russia’s rupee reserves because of the diplomatic risks attached to . India and Russia have been settling some of their non-oil trade in rupees since the begng of this year .
即便如此，受到制裁打击的俄罗斯可能不得不将其快速积累的卢比储备中的大部分投资于印度的政府证券、基础设施和其他项目。据估计，俄罗斯的卢比储备已超过20亿美元，而且还在持续增长。
印度拒绝了俄罗斯支持的一项建议，这项建议允许伊朗进口印度商品，并使用俄罗斯的卢比储备支付费用，因为这可能涉及外交风险。自今年年初以来，印度和俄罗斯一直在用卢比结算部分非石油贸易。
About 19-20 transactions have happened (in rupees) since January ... All these transactions have been Indian exports to Russia
To fix this trade imbalance Russia wants to expand supplies from India, such as machinery imports, components and equipment for road construction, chemicals and pharmaceuticals .
俄罗斯还热衷于用“本国货币和友好国家的货币”进行更多的贸易。
自1月份以来，大约已经进行了19-20笔交易(以卢比计算)……所有这些交易都是印度对俄罗斯的出口贸易。
为了解决这种贸易不平衡，俄罗斯希望扩大印度对俄罗斯的出口供应，例如机械、道路建设的零部件和设备、化学品和药品。
Russia has supplied armament and steel plants and other technology for decades now. In fact since ‘60s. All trade was Rupee-Rouble trade. Since both currencies were not free floating this trade became some sort of barter trade using Russian banks and Indian banks . So Rupee Letters of credit were routinely operated through earmarked Indian Banks. Canara Bank being one of them. Russian businesses imported Tea, Coffee, Rice, woolens and clothing etc. from India. Come Perestroika the Russian businesses muscled in and almost broke the chain. Added to this was cheaper and better products from China (shipped over land hence cheaper) made it difficult for Indian traders.
几十年来，俄罗斯一直为印度提供武器、钢铁厂和其他技术。事实上，可以追溯到60年代。这些贸易全都采用卢比-卢布的交换。由于这两种货币的汇率都不是自由浮动的，这种交易就变成了俄罗斯银行和印度银行之间的某种易货贸易。因此，卢比信用证通常会通过指定的印度银行进行操作。卡纳拉银行就是其中之一。俄罗斯企业从印度进口茶叶、咖啡、大米、羊毛和服装等。苏联进行改革后，俄罗斯企业强行介入，几乎打破了这个平衡。此外，来自中国的更便宜、更优质的产品通过陆路运输，所以价格更便宜，给印度贸易商带来了困境。
所以从根源上说，这是一个古老的问题，但也是有解决方案的。事实上已经存在并成功实施了。这一次的唯一问题在于乌克兰战争和随之而来的西方制裁。但截至目前，制裁并不算太狠。让我们拭目以待吧。
I don't understand why people are trying to to reinvent the wheel.
If there is already a solution, what is it? To figure that out, we need to understand the problem first. Let me explain:
我不明白为什么人们要重新讨论这个问题。
如果已经有了解决方案，方案是什么？若要解决这个问题，我们首先要了解问题所在。我先来解释一下：
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
However, if India shifts its focus to what Russia needs, there are multiple options available. India can procure those items from other countries and sell them to Russia.
这里有一个问题，我们只关心印度可以向俄罗斯出口什么。虽然印度可以向俄罗斯出口某些商品，但长期向俄罗斯购买石油产生的交易金额之大，远远超过印度可以出口的商品价值。
但如果印度将重点转移到俄罗斯的需要上，那么印度就有多种选择了。印度可以从其他国家采购这些产品，然后卖给俄罗斯。
So, the idea now is to reverse this process. India can buy what Russia requires from Europe and other nations and sell it to Russia. By doing so, India can strengthen its position as a mediator between nations and earn a significant commission as a middleman.
这也许看起来很荒谬，但印度已经开始对欧洲采取类似的做法了。印度从俄罗斯购买石油，然后转卖给欧洲。
所以，现在这个想法就是逆转这个过程。印度可以从欧洲和其他国家购买俄罗斯需要的东西，然后转卖给俄罗斯。印度可以通过此举加强其作为各国之间调解人的地位，同时作为中间人赚取大量佣金。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
The conversion ratio of Rubble to Rupees will increase, and it will become cheaper for Russians to buy things from India.
If Russia gets enough of Rupees they might pull out a trick where they lend money to the Indian government for certain “political concessions”. In real terms the Indian government will be able to spend more money than they are taxed, and Russia gets whatever the concession is.
卢布对卢比的汇率将会得到提高，俄罗斯人从印度购买商品也会变得更便宜。
如果俄罗斯得到足够多的卢比，他们可能会借钱给印度政府，换取某些“政治妥协”。按实际价值计算，印度政府能够支出的金额将超过他们的税收，而俄罗斯也得到了让步。
Alternatively if India screws Russia for some reason and refuses a concession, the Russians will put a huge amount of the Rupees back in circulation and cause an inflation in India, destabilizing the economy.
我敢肯定，如果俄罗斯在印度洋上拿下一个港口，美国人会非常高兴的。
或者，如果印度因为某些原因拿捏俄罗斯，拒绝让步，俄罗斯人就会向市场投放大量卢比，导致印度发生通货膨胀，破坏经济稳定。
It is important to note that Russia primarily sells oil to India in US dollars, not Indian rupees. However, if Russia were to receive a large amount of Indian rupees for any reason, there are several potential solutions to consider.
值得注意的是，俄罗斯主要是用美元向印度出售石油，而非卢比。但如果俄罗斯因为某种原因获得大量印度卢比，也有几个潜在的解决方案：
一种选择是，俄罗斯通过货币交易所将印度卢比转换为接受度更高的货币，如美元或欧元，俄罗斯可以轻松用于国际交易和投资。另一个选择是俄罗斯使用印度卢比从印度购买商品或服务。这不仅有助于抵消两国之间的贸易平衡，也为俄罗斯提供了可能需要的产品和服务。最后，俄罗斯还可以考虑将印度卢比通过股票或债券等各种金融工具投资于印度经济。这不仅有助于提振印度经济，还可能为俄罗斯的投资提供回报。
There is no easy or immediate solution. Putin has destroyed Russia’s primary European markets, now it’s getting screwed by India and the China both. India takes Russian Oil, pays for it in Rupee’s. They then refine that oil, and sell the high value product on, mostly to the EU, while getting paid in Euros and Dollars.
Meanwhile the Chinese are doing exactly the same thing to Russia, and in the process both are crushing Russian margins. the only difference is China has stuff the Russian’s want, so even if the exchange rate is poor they at least can spend their Chinese Yuan.
对此没有简单易行或立竿见影的解决办法。普京摧毁了俄罗斯主要的欧洲市场，现在又被印度和中国拿捏住了。印度购买俄罗斯石油，用卢比结算。然后，他们提炼石油，并将高价值的石油产品出售给欧盟，同时获得欧元和美元。
与此同时，中国也正在对俄罗斯做完全相同的事情，在这个过程中，两国都在挤占俄罗斯的利润。唯一不同的是，中国有俄罗斯想要的东西，所以即便汇率很低，他们至少还能用手头的人民币完成支付。
Why is this a real problem at all? Russia is India's largest arms supplier to the tune of $14B in the last 5 year alone. This was never a problem with just keep buying more Russian arms, and piling onto the trade imbalance. Adding oil to that should just increase the trade imbalance.
为什么你觉得这会成为问题呢？俄罗斯是印度最大的武器供应国，仅在过去5年里就向印度提供了140亿美元的交易。印度持续购买更多的俄罗斯武器，导致贸易不平衡。石油采购只是进一步加剧贸易不平衡罢了。
To clarify, Russia does not accept payment in Indian rupees for oil sales to India. Typically, oil transactions between countries are conducted in U.S. dollars or other major global currencies. However, if hypothetically, Russia were to accumulate a significant amount of Indian rupees, there are a few potential solutions:
澄清一下，俄罗斯并没有接受印度用卢比进行石油款项的结算。通常，国家之间的石油交易以美元或其他主要全球货币进行结算。但如果俄罗斯积累了大量印度卢比，有几个潜在的解决方案：
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Diversify Trade: Both countries could work towards diversifying their trade and exploring other sectors beyond oil. By expanding the range of goods and services traded, the reliance on oil transactions could decrease, reducing the accumulation of a single currency.
货币互换协议：俄罗斯和印度可以讨论货币互换协议，俄罗斯持有的卢比可以兑换成俄罗斯卢布或双方商定的其他货币。
贸易多元化：两国可以努力实现贸易多元化，并开拓除石油以外的其他行业。通过扩大商品和服务的贸易范围，可以减少对石油交易的依赖，从而减少单一货币的积累。
Bilateral Agreements: The governments of Russia and India could engage in discussions to find mutually beneficial solutions. This may involve negotiations regarding currency exchange, trade terms, or other economic cooperation agreements.
金融工具：俄罗斯可以在印度境内用卢比进行金融操作或投资机会，也许可以投资于印度公司、基础设施项目或金融市场，将资金用于生产性用途。
双边协议：俄罗斯和印度政府可以进行讨论，找到互惠互利的解决办法。比如进行货币兑换、贸易条款或其他经济合作协议的谈判。
值得注意的是，具体的行动和解决办法要取决于两国之间的情况和达成的协议。