美国和印度网友回答：你对政府禁止TikTok感到开心吗？为什么？（下）

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原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Currently, TikTok has 170 million American users, although not as many as the number of users in India at one time, but already accounted for more than half of the total population of the United States, while TikTok was banned in India when the number of users is less than 1/5 of the total, the influence of the same cannot be compared.
And at the time of being blocked by Indian officials, TikTok had only been operating in India for more than two years, and was still in the nascent stage of the Indian short video market, and user stickiness was not high.
Fast forward to today, TikTok has been operating in the US for almost 7 years, with very high user stickiness. Out of 170 million users, 65% of them visit TikTok every day, and the average daily usage time of users is up to 48 minutes, which is much higher than other media platforms.
According to Statista, TikTok will already have 26% of the US social media market by 2023, well ahead of Facebook and Instagram.
Similarly, short videos in the US are no longer in the early stages, Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts have long been launched in the US market, has been under the suppression of TikTok, but also had a collective boycott of old users, the development of the development is not smooth.

目前，TikTok在美国拥有1.7亿用户，虽然没有印度的用户数量那么多，但已经占到美国总人口的一半以上，而在印度，TikTok被禁止使用时，当时用户数量不到总人口的1/5，其影响力无法与美国的禁止相比。
而在被印度官方封杀之时，TikTok在印度运营才两年多，还处于印度短视频市场的萌芽阶段，用户粘性并不高。
快进到今天，TikTok已经在美国运营了近7年，用户粘性非常高。在1.7亿用户中，65%的用户每天都要访问TikTok，用户的日均使用时间高达48分钟，远高于其他媒体平台。
根据Statista的数据，到2023年，TikTok将占据美国社交媒体市场26%的份额，远远领先于Facebook和Instagram。
同样，短视频在美国也不再处于早期阶段，Instagram Reels和YouTube Shorts早就在美国市场推出，一直受到TikTok的打压，也遭到了老用户的集体抵制，发展并不顺利。

In the short term, Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts are already relatively well developed and have user overlap with TikTok. If TikTok is banned, they can be easily replaced.
But in the short video market as a whole, it has been difficult to create a new giant.
Whether it's Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts duel, or more small companies want to take advantage of the chaos to get a piece of the pie, and then a group of heroes, has its own mature ecosystem of Instagram and YouTube is unlikely to completely turn to short video, even if the short video business is independent, but also can't completely eat all the users of TikTok, and the small company And small companies and small platforms will soon be eliminated if they can't provide the same service and experience as the two giants.
Similarly, TikTok's excellent user stickiness will cause a lot of short video users to lose out.
Referring to the previous Montana. After TikTok was banned, many users started downloading TikTok in other ways; the software can be replaced, but it will always be just that, a replacement.

从短期来看，Instagram Reels和YouTube Shorts已经相对发展良好，用户与TikTok有重叠。如果TikTok被禁止，它们很容易取而代之。
但在整个短视频市场，很难创造出一个新的巨头。
无论是Instagram Reels和YouTube Shorts的对决，还是更多的小公司想趁着混乱分一杯羹，然后群雄逐鹿，都无法创造出一个新的巨头。
Instagram和YouTube 有自己已经成熟的生态系统，不太可能完全转向短视频，即使短视频业务独立，也无法完全吃掉TikTok的所有用户， 而小公司和小平台如果不能提供与两大巨头相同的服务和体验，很快就会被淘汰。
同样，TikTok出色的用户粘性也会导致大量短视频用户流失。
之前的蒙大拿州，在TikTok被禁后，许多用户开始以其他方式下载TikTok 。软件可以被替换，但替身永远都只是替身。

TikTok if completely off the shelves, will undoubtedly take away a lot of loyal users and netizens, the ecology between different platforms is not different, the domestic major anchors, even if another platform is difficult to rebuild the glory, so the departure of users and netizens must not be a few.
Therefore, the loss of users is inevitable, coupled with the short video market is difficult to re-emerge high-speed growth to attract more new users, TikTok has been banned for the development of the entire short video market in the United States, will also cause a big blow.
Moreover, if TikTok's ban continues, it won't be able to ignore a market as big as the US and sit on its hands about the ban.
Looking at what TikTok Shop did after it was banned in Indonesia, perhaps TikTok will also make a comeback by partnering with a US company. By then, the landscape may not be much different than it is now, except that TikTok will have changed its vest.
But there's a bigger problem with TikTok's ban, and that's that it's not just short videos where TikTok makes its money.

TikTok如果完全下架，无疑会带走很多忠实的用户和网民，不同平台之间的生态差别不大，就算有个生态不同的平台，国内各大主播，也难重建辉煌，所以用户和网民的离开一定不是少数。
因此，用户的流失是不可避免的，再加上短视频市场很难重新出现高速增长来吸引更多的新用户，而TikTok已经被封禁，对整个美国短视频市场的发展也将造成不小的打击。
此外，如果TikTok的禁令继续下去，TikTok 将无法忽视像美国这样大的市场，并对禁令坐视不管。
看看TikTok商店在印度尼西亚被禁后的表现，也许TikToks也会通过与一家美国公司合作而卷土重来。到那时，情况可能与现在没有太大不同，只是TikTok将换了马甲而已。
但TikTok的禁令还有一个更大的问题，那就是TikToks赚钱的不仅仅是短视频。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

02
Many people believe that TikTok is currently the only company in the world, apart from its parent company, which is still Byte Jump, that has no semblance of a relationship with the domestic market.
So even if it's taken off the market, it won't have much of an impact on the country, either in terms of users or the economy.
But the problem is that TikTok's influence isn't just in the short-form video space; the TikTok shop has long since attracted a large number of merchants and consumers in the e-commerce space.
Just at the end of last year, TikTok Shop set an ambitious goal of reaching $50 billion in GMV by 2024.
Reaching this goal will make TikTok Shop half the size of Amazon, surpassing a significant number of cross-border e-commerce platforms, and TikTok Shop has achieved this goal in just 3 years.
FastMoss data show that last year's "Black Friday" promotion, TikTok Shop in the United States in a single day GMV of more than 33 million US dollars.
02

许多人认为，TikTok是目前世界上唯一一家十分特别的公司：除了和他的母公司字节跳动有联系之外，它与国内市场没有任何联系。
因此，即使它退出市场，无论是在用户还是经济方面，都不会对国家产生太大影响。
但问题是，TikTok的影响力不仅仅局限于短视频领域。TikTok 商店早就吸引了电子商务领域的大量商家和消费者。
就在去年年底，TikTok 商店设定了一个雄心勃勃的目标，即到2024年实现500亿美元的网站成交金额。
实现这一目标将使TikTok 商店的售卖规模达到亚马逊的一半，超过大量跨境电商平台，而TikTok商店在短短3年内就实现了这一目标。
FastMoss的数据显示，在去年的“黑色星期五”促销活动中，TikTok 商店在美国的单日网站成交金额超过3300万美元。

Guoxin Securities research report pointed out that the TikTok Shop GMV ceiling is expected to be 100-200 billion US dollars, according to the US online social zero annual growth rate of 5%, TikTok e-commerce share of up to 7% to 15%.
Not only that, compared with the Southeast Asian market, the U.S. market e-commerce pattern is fragmented, in the e-commerce pattern of the top ten companies, only three are fully e-commerce platforms, more traditional retailers perceive the opportunity to self-owned website, so TikTok shop in the U.S. has a greater opportunity.
If TikTok is shut down, it's bound to affect sellers on TikTok Shop.
In his complaint against the ban, TikTok CEO Shouzhi Zhou also mentioned that if TikTok is taken down in the US, it will cost creators and small businesses billions of dollars and put 300,000 jobs at risk.

国信证券研报指出，TikTok 商店的网站成交金额上限预计为1000亿至2000亿美元，按照美国在线社交年增长率为5%，TikTok电商份额高达7%至15%。
不仅如此，与东南亚市场相比，美国市场的电子商务模式是碎片化的，在电子商务模式排名前十的公司中，只有三家是完全的电子商务平台，更多的是传统零售商意识到了拥有网站的机会，因此TikTok在美国的店铺有更大的机会。
如果TikTok被关闭，势必会影响TikTok商店上的卖家。
TikTok首席执行官周受资在对禁令的投诉中还提到，如果TikTok在美国被取缔，创作者和小企业将损失数十亿美元，30万个工作岗位将面临风险。

There is a precedent for what happened after the TikTok shop was banned. At the end of September last year, the Indonesian Ministry of Trade announced the introduction of Regulation No. 31, which banned social media platforms from merchandising and trading activities - not TikTok, but TikTok Shop.
On the night that Regulation 31 was published, a number of Indonesian netizens on TikTok bid a tearful farewell to their on-air audience.
Following the ban, the hashtag #KamiUMKMdiTikTok (we are small and medium TikTok merchants) exploded on TikTok with over 170 million views.

TikTok商店被禁止后发生的事情有先例。去年9月底，印尼贸易部宣布出台第31号法规，禁止社交媒体平台进行商品销售和交易活动——不是TikTok，而是TikTok商店。
在第31条发布的当晚，许多印尼网民在TikTok上含泪向他们的直播观众告别。
禁令颁布后，#KamiUMKMdiTikTok（我们是中小TikTok商家）的标签在TikTok上爆炸式增长，浏览量超过1.7亿。

Local sources in Indonesia also revealed that Indonesian couriers were supposed to deliver 60-80 parcels a day, and after the TikTok shop was shut down, the number of courier orders plummeted and the pay they received for fewer parcels was reduced accordingly.
But unlike the situation in Indonesia, TikTok Shop in the United States attracts mostly local sellers because Southeast Asian cross-border e-commerce has only emerged in recent years, while the United States has long been China's best export destination for cross-border e-commerce, and a number of Chinese sellers operate multiple US cross-border e-commerce platforms.
From July last year, TikTok Shop U.S. area also open ACCU store stationed, the so-called ACCU store, refers to the "Chinese-owned U.S. cross-border business", as the name suggests, is the Chinese nationality of the legal person to apply for the U.S. company, the Chinese cross-border sellers to lower the threshold for more.

印尼当地消息人士还透露，印尼快递员本应每天递送60-80个包裹，但在TikTok商店关闭后，快递订单数量暴跌，他们收到的包裹减少后的报酬也相应减少。
但与印尼的情况不同，美国的TikTok 商店吸引的大多是美国当地的卖家，因为东南亚跨境电子商务是近年来才出现的，而美国长期以来一直是中国跨境电子商务的最佳出口目的地，许多中国卖家经营着多个美国跨境电子商务平台。
从去年7月起，TikTok 商店美国地区还开设了ACCU门店入驻，所谓ACCU门店，顾名思义就是指“中国人拥有的美国跨境业务”，是指中国国籍的法人申请的美国公司，中国跨境卖家的门槛降低了更多。

As of March, the number of active stores in the US region of TikTok Shop has reached 202,000, and among them, I'm afraid there are a significant number of Chinese cross-border sellers.
In the longer term, what has happened to TikTok will also make more Chinese cross-border sellers and cross-border e-commerce platforms tremble. After all, TikTok has long been divorced from the domestic market, and SHEIN and Temu, the two big Chinese pioneer overseas companies, are still inextricably lixed to the domestic market.
Indeed, there has never been a shortage of bans against Shein and Temu.
The Shut Down Shein Coalition, a US-based private sector organisation, has been trying to find problems with Shein's operations, and early last year the coalition caused an uproar when it reported that Shein was avoiding US tariffs. Similarly, SHEIN has been targeted by US lawmakers on both sides of the aisle and has been denounced by politicians on several occasions.

截至3月，TikTok 商店在美国地区的活跃店铺数量已达20.2万家，其中，恐怕有相当数量的中国跨境卖家。
从长远来看，TikTok所发生的事情也将让更多中国跨境卖家和跨境电商平台颤抖。毕竟，TikTok早已脱离了国内市场，而希音和拼夕夕这两家中国先锋海外大公司与国内市场仍有着千丝万缕的联系。
事实上，针对希音和拼多多的禁令从来都不缺。
总部位于美国的私营部门，组织了“关闭希音联盟”，他们一直在试图找出希音的运营问题，去年年初，该联盟报道称希音正在逃避美国关税，引发轩然大波。同样，希音也遭到了美国两党议员的攻击，并多次遭到了政客的谴责。

Similarly, Temu, which has been in the US market for less than two years, has been in the eye of the storm on several occasions, with some US lawmakers attempting to ban imports of goods sold on Temu earlier this year.
If TikTok is taken off the shelves, it will open up a huge can of worms for this kind of "witch hunt" ban, and Shein and Temu will certainly feel the chill of their lips and teeth, and the Chinese manufacturers and sellers associated with them will undoubtedly lose a major source of income.

同样，进入美国市场不到两年的拼夕夕也多次成为风暴的焦点，今年早些时候，一些美国立法者试图禁止进口在拼夕夕上销售的商品。
如果TikTok被下架，这将为这种“猎巫”禁令打开一个巨大的漏洞，希音和拼夕夕肯定会感到唇齿之寒，与他们相关的中国制造商和销售商无疑将失去一个主要的收入来源。

03
There has been a lot of discussion about banning TikTok in recent years. As TikTok's influence continues to grow, voices have been raised both in favour and against.
Many people have begun to feel that whether TikTok is banned or not has nothing to do with the domestic public. But what goes around comes around.
Whichever way you look at it, if TikTok is indeed banned, it will be a lose-lose situation for both sides.
03

近年来，关于禁止TikTok的讨论很多。随着TikTok的影响力持续增长，赞成和反对的声音都在增加。
许多人开始觉得，TikTok是否被禁与国内公众无关。但事情总有改变。
无论你怎么看，如果TikTok真的被禁止，双方都将是两败俱伤的局面。