中国电动汽车的蓬勃发展让西方汽车公司陷入困境
Wired: How China’s EV Boom Caught Western Car Companies Asleep at the Wheel
译文简介
这是大石油公司和传统汽车公司试图通过负面虚假信息来延缓电动汽车在美国发展的可怕现实后果。
正文翻译
Wired: How China’s EV Boom Caught Western Car Companies Asleep at the Wheel
《连线》：中国电动汽车的蓬勃发展如何让西方汽车公司陷入困境
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This is the terrible real consequence of Big Oil and Legacy Auto trying to slow down EVs in the US with FUD.
They are seeking out a little profit and laziness today at the cost of significant market loss in the future.
The smart thing would be FUD in public but EV prep in private. (Still would have been ethically and morally wrong). Unfortunately, you can’t make big fundamental lies at that scale and not have them ultimately bite you.
这是大石油公司和传统汽车公司试图通过负面虚假信息来延缓电动汽车在美国发展的可怕现实后果。
他们今天为了蝇头小利而偷懒，代价是将来要付出巨大的市场损失。
聪明的做法是在公开场合传播负面信息，但在私下进行电动车预热（这在伦理道德上仍然是错误的）。不幸的是，你不可能在那么大的规模上撒根本性的弥天大谎，而最终不被它们反咬一口。
Exactly. Which is why it's so hard to entertain the idea of giving any legacy company future business. They all fought tooth and nail to avoid electrification, and they should perish in the market as a result.
As an American, I'd prefer to see newer American companies take their place rather than see China take over. But for some reason, a large number of Americans have digested huge amounts of negative propaganda on EVs and the new companies in particular. In particular, the amount of anti-Tesla bile out there, seemingly focused on keeping legacy companies on life support despite the China threat, is disheartening at times.
没错。正因如此，我们很难接受任何一家传统公司提出的未来业务。它们都拼尽全力避免电气化，结果应该是在市场上灭亡。
作为一个美国人，我宁愿看到美国的新公司取代它们的位置，也不愿看到中国取代它们。但出于某种原因，大量美国人消化了大量关于电动汽车，尤其是新公司的负面宣传。特别是存在大量反特斯拉的谩骂，尽管有中国的威胁，但这些谩骂似乎都是为了维持传统公司的生命，有时这令人感到沮丧。
GM had perished, except it wasn't allowed to when it got bailed out.
通用汽车本来已经灭亡了，只不过它不被允许这样做，强行进行救助。
Pure EV since the 2009 Mini E
The bailout was really unforgivable.
那次救助确实是不可原谅的。
It would have destroyed the US economy not to have done so, with ripple effects worldwide, so no, it wasn’t. If GM had failed, many other companies in its supply chain would also have failed and that would have created even more knock-on effects.
如果不这样做，美国经济就会被摧毁，并在全球范围内产生连锁反应，所以不，事实并非如此。如果通用汽车倒闭，其供应链上的许多其他公司也会倒闭，这将产生更大的连锁反应。
Yea people act like its so terrible that GM and Chrysler got bailed out. Thats crazy. If GM and Chrysler had been allowed to go under than ford probably would have gone under as well. The great recession would have been another great depression. And then the US would have been left with no domestic car manufacturer. But wait what about Tesla many might say. There is no way Tesla would have survived in this alternate history. Tesla barely avoided bankruptcy due to the Great Recession. Elon loves to mention how Tesla was literally hours from running out of money at the end of 2008. Tesla was also little more than a niche car manufacturer at the time producing only a couple thousand of the Roadsters. It wasn't till 2018 and another close call with running out of money that Tesla was able to pivot into becoming a major car manufacturer.
Now I think there is a fair argument to be made that to big to fail companies are a problem. But allowing these large companies to fail during a recession is is not the solution and how stuff can go from bad to terrible.
是啊，人们表现得好像通用汽车和克莱斯勒得到了救助有多么可怕。这太疯狂了。如果允许通用汽车和克莱斯勒破产，福特可能也会破产。大衰退将成为另一场大萧条。到那时，美国将没有一家国内汽车制造商。但是，许多人可能会说，不是还有特斯拉吗？特斯拉不可能在这段平行历史中幸存下来。由于经济大衰退，特斯拉勉强避免了破产。埃隆很喜欢提及在 2008 年底时，特斯拉的资金差几个小时就耗尽了这件事。特斯拉当时也不过是一家小众汽车制造商，只生产了几千辆 Roadster。直到 2018 年，又一次资金耗尽的千钧一发之际，特斯拉才得以转型成为一家主要的汽车制造商。
现在，我认为有理由认为，“大到不能倒闭”的公司是个问题。但允许这些大公司在经济衰退期间倒闭并不是解决问题的办法，事情也会从“糟糕”变成“可怕”。
You know there are options right? Like in Sweden the government didn't bail banks out, they took over the ownership during the 90s crisis and then sold it back to the market when the global economy came back. It was sold at really nice profit too, making it a great deal for the tax payers.
You don't give rich people bailouts. You take over their assets and appoint another leadership (if it had done a lot of bad choices and not just victims of global recession).
So it's both terrible to let people get free tax money and it's horrible to let firms go under. But there are definitely options in between. Another Swedish option was selling off Volvo and SAAB. We still got Volvo left here, under Chinese ownership doing great in my hometown. SAAB never really was a profitable company like ever so they were only needed for a small Swedish town (Trollhättan).
你知道还有其他选择对吧？就像在瑞典，政府并没有救助银行，而是在 90 年代危机期间接管了银行的所有权，然后在全球经济复苏时将其卖回给市场。出售的利润也非常可观，对纳税人来说是一笔很好的交易。
你不应该给富人提供救助。而是应该接管他们的资产，任命新的领导层（如果旧领导层做了很多错误的选择，而不仅仅是全球经济衰退的受害者的话）。
因此，让富人免费获得纳税人的税款和让公司倒闭都是可怕的。但在两者之间肯定还有其他选择。瑞典的另一个选择是出售沃尔沃和萨博。沃尔沃仍然留在那里，由中国人控股，在我的家乡做得很好。萨博从未真正成为一家盈利的公司，因此只需要在瑞典的一个小镇（特罗尔海坦）运营。
Thanks for saying this. People really can't see how the whole "bailing out" strategy happening in the US is literally taking money from taxpayers and giving them to wealthy shareholders. There are other options as you mentioned.
谢谢你指出了这一点。人们真的好像不明白，美国的整个“救市”策略实际上是从纳税人那里拿钱分给那些极其富有的股东。正如你提到的，还有其他选择。
Unfortunately countries in the anglosphere have been dominated by the politics of protecting people from reality. On almost every single issue change is being brought about by forces nobody can stop but politicians who deny the problem exists and promise to keep things in the same are gaining popularity.
You can't stop the EV revolution. Most modern ICE cars sound like vacuum cleaners and the most popular vehicles are crossovers. The average consumer doesn't care what's powering their vehicle, as long as they save money. EVs are already cheaper than a basic Corolla in large parts of the world. Any automaker that's trying to use govt to hold on to the past is as screwed as Kodak trying to stop digital cameras. And so are the workers, and the citizens of those countries when everything spectacularly collapses.
不幸的是，英语国家一直被“保护人民不受现实影响”的政治所左右。几乎在每一个问题上，变革都是由任何人都无法阻止的力量带来的，但那些否认问题存在并承诺维持现状的政客却越来越受欢迎。
你无法阻止电动车革命。大多数现代内燃机汽车听起来像吸尘器，而最受欢迎的汽车是跨界车。只要能省钱，普通消费者根本不在乎汽车的动力是什么。在全球大部分地区，电动汽车的价格已经比基本款的卡罗拉还要便宜。任何试图利用政府来挽留过去的汽车制造商都会像柯达试图阻止数码相机一样陷入困境。当一切都轰然倒塌时，这些国家的工人和公民也将陷入困境。
I think the anti-Tesla stuff really comes from people not being happy with Elon Musk’s public image. Also all the marketing about full self driving yet people were getting killed.
我认为反特斯拉的真正原因是人们对埃隆-马斯克的公众形象不满意。此外，还有那些关于全自动驾驶的营销活动，然而它始终会造成人员伤亡。
A lot of which comes down to media and partisan politics, which is itself intertwined with the legacy companies' marketing and lobbying campaigns. And then there's engagement, itself fueled by partisanship and tribalism, leading to media bias such as EV fires receiving disproportionate coverage.
It's fairly disgusting how much of our current situation boils down to partisanship and tribalism.
这其中很大一部分归因于媒体和党派政治，而媒体和党派政治本身又与传统公司的营销和游说活动交织在一起。此外，党派和部落主义也助长了人们的参与，导致了媒体的偏见，比如电动车火灾得到了过多的报道。
我们目前的状况在很大程度上归结为党派和部落主义，这样的现实相当令人厌恶。
gosh it’s like they learned nothing from the near death experience of the japanese imports. now they’re doing it all over again against the Chinese. US car company leadership should be thrown in jail.
天哪，他们好像没有从因为日本进口车而濒临死亡的经历中学到任何东西。美国汽车公司的领导层应该被关进监狱。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
US car companies are responsible for lack of public transport and highways crossing middle of cities, splitting cities in halves.
Yes, the are definitely evil, especially GM.
美国汽车公司是造成公共交通匮乏和高速公路横穿城市中央、将城市一分为二的罪魁祸首。
是的，他们绝对是恶魔，尤其是通用汽车。
Why learn anything when they can just complain to the government to have certain Japanese cars be banned for "unfair competition" and if that doesn't work declare bankruptcy and have the government bail them out.
当他们只需向政府投诉，要求以“不公平竞争”为由禁止某些日本汽车，或者如果还不行，就宣布破产，让政府来拯救他们时，何必去学什么呢？
The "why" in this case is because China is ideologically opposed to Western values and supporting them is not in our long term interest. Not in the EU's either I would think.
这里的“为什么”是因为中国在意识形态上反对西方价值观，因此支持他们不符合我们的长远利益。我认为这也不符合欧盟的利益。
China is ideologically opposed to Western values
What values are they opposed to?
Just because they aren't a democracy doesn't mean they are opposed to all of our values. If you actually talk to Chinese people and/or spend some time there, you would find there are many shared values. There is good reason why Chinese immigrants assimilate well into Western countries.
“中国在意识形态上反对西方价值观”
他们反对什么价值观？
他们不是民主国家并不意味着他们反对我们所有的价值观。如果你真正与中国人交谈和/或在那里待上一段时间，你会发现他们有许多共同的价值观。中国移民能很好地融入西方国家是有原因的。
Western values
whats the value? in middle east,even western themsleves not obey thier "value"
“西方价值观”
什么价值观？在中东西方人自己怎么不遵守他们的“价值观”。
Have fun burning oil into the 2050s while the rest of the world gets to live in the future
在世界其他地方过上未来生活的同时，尽情燃烧石油，直到 2050 年代吧
lM, you mean our western "values" of bombing, drone striking, assassinating, color revolutioning, regime changing nations?
I am glad they don't share our values. Imagine having another country that does these things around the world.
笑死，你是说我们西方--轰炸、无人机袭击、暗杀、颜色革命、政权更迭的“价值观”？
我很高兴他们不认同我们的价值观。想象一下，世界上还有哪个国家会做这些事。
if the Chinese can ever get into the US the legacy makers will be in a world of hurt. however the US government has been doing a job on that, keeping them out that is. Biden is more protectionist than his predecessor who many thought was too protectionist.
Depending on how much the UAW gets the legacy automakers may be in worse position. They will definitely lose their position in the rest of the Americas
如果中国人能够进入美国，传统制造商将受到重创。然而，美国政府在这方面做得很好，将他们拒之门外。拜登比他的前任更具保护主义色彩，许多人还认为他的前任保护主义色彩太浓了呢。
根据 UAW（美国汽车工人联合会） 所获得的利益，传统汽车制造商的处境可能会更糟。他们肯定会失去在美洲其他地区的地位。
There was also a significant period in between when Koreans were regarded as junk - rightfully so maybe 25 years ago, but that changed fast
在这之间还有一段相当长的时期，韩国人的汽车被视为垃圾--也许是 25 年前吧，但事情很快就变了
Yes, but they didn’t impact the us market as sharply because their quality was so bad. They did force longer warranties though.
是的，但他们对美国市场的影响并没有那么大，因为他们的质量太差了。不过，他们确实延长了保修期。
A lot of Hyundai and Kias on the road today though…
如今路上有很多现代和起亚的车...
It’s ok! Toyota is working on solid state batteries and ammonia engines !
没关系！丰田正在研发固态电池和氨气发动机！
What’s funny is that the Chinese beat them to both of those! SAIC iirc has now made a working ammonia engine, and Nio offers a semi solid state battery
On the other hand; I do hope Toyota makes this 1000 mile 10 second recharge battery just because the reaction here would be very funny
有趣的是，这两个领域都被中国人抢先了！上汽集团已经制造出可以运行的氨气发动机，而 蔚来则提供了半固态电池。
另一方面，我也希望丰田能制造出这种行驶 1000 英里只需 10 秒充电的电池，因为这将会引起非常有趣的反响。
Toyota can’t get out of its own way with mental gymnastics. They are actively lobbying to call plug in hybrids EVs and how hybrids are better for the environment. They bet wrong as are trying to save face
Hydrogen is a pipe dream as there is no infrastructure for it along with similar type of “fuels” outside of oil
丰田无法摆脱自己的阿Q思维。他们积极游说，称插电式混合动力车为电动车，并说混合动力车对环境更有利。他们赌错了，因为他们想挽回面子
氢气和石油以外的类似“燃料”一样，都没有基础设施，因此氢气只是一个空想。
The amount of hybrids I'm seeing labeled as full ev is staggering in Tennessee. Its down right a lie.
在田纳西州，我看到的标注为“全电力”的混合动力车数量惊人。这根本就是个谎言。
That’s what Toyota wants
这正是丰田想要的
Repeat of the solar panel. West invests in R&D, makes a great new thing, companies chase quarterly profits over investments in new thing, China sets central policy to avoid this pitfall, accepts short term loss to corner the supply and production, dominates production market before western firms can get it into their quarterly mindset.
Short-termism and shareholder idiocy are what ruin corporate performance time and again in the west and yet corporate boards continue to chase the quarterly target rather than take the long view. For all his horrible idiocy, Musk solved that problem by being one dude with lots of money and a long term vision who could afford to ignore the whim of the ticker - and look how that turned out for Tesla.
太阳能电池板的再现。西方国家投资研发，制造出伟大的新事物，企业追逐季度利润而非新事物投资，中国制定中央政策避免这一陷阱，接受短期损失以占领供应和生产领域，在西方企业进入季度思维之前主导生产市场。
在西方，短期行为和股东的愚蠢行为一次又一次地毁掉了公司业绩，但公司董事会却继续追逐季度目标，而不是从长远角度看问题。马斯克虽然愚蠢得可怕，但他解决了这个问题，因为他是一个拥有大量资金和长远眼光的人，他有能力忽视股票市场的一时兴起，看看特斯拉的结果如何吧。
spot on.
真相了
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Inventing something is overrated compared to mastering it. Nvidia did not invent the GPU but they were fast followers and ultimately mastered the tech better than anyone else.
与掌握某项技术相比，发明某项技术被高估了。英伟达并没有发明 GPU，但他们是快速的追赶者，并最终比其他人更好地掌握了这项技术。
Two problems for western customers:
So many Chinese manufacturers. I guess not even the Chinese believe all of them will survive. But guess less of a problem for the western customer because he never sees the small start ups.
Political interference. Here I think the solution for the European market will be Chinese cars made in the EU. There were already talks of them buying a Ford factory in Germany, or building a new plant. So I guess Chinese car manufacturers are here to stay. But what will the USA do - who knows?
西方客户面临两个问题：
1. 中国制造商太多。我猜连中国人都不相信所有这些制造商都能生存下来。但对西方客户来说，问题不大，因为他从未见过初创的小企业。
2. 政治干预。在这里，我认为欧洲市场的解决方案将是让中国汽车在欧盟生产。已经有消息称，中国将收购福特在德国的一家工厂，或新建一家工厂。因此，我认为中国汽车制造商将继续存在。但美国会怎么做--谁知道呢？
But what will the USA do - who knows?
So remember that it's not just the US as a country but also the states. Ford and CATL's factory basically got chased out of Virginia by its Governor and Legislature because of potential ties to China. And now it's on hold entirely.
And any change in leadership, especially at the state level, can help or hurt the cause. And elections happen every two to four years.
“但美国会怎么做--谁知道呢？”
请记住，这不仅仅是美国一个国家的事，也是各州的事。福特和宁德时代的工厂基本上被弗吉尼亚州州长和议会赶出了弗吉尼亚州，原因是可能与中国有联系。现在这些项目已完全搁置。
领导层的任何变动，尤其是州一级领导层的变动，都会对事业产生或大或小的影响。而选举每两到四年举行一次。
The fear mongering will turn into a self fullfilling prophesy - sanctions and bans to stop the Chinese, only to have those policies force the Chinese to exclude the Americans from being part of their development.
At the end of the day, China only wants to do business and enjoy the fruits of being successful - more money and better life. They arent out to "get" anyone and would much prefer to work with the americans in a win-win situation, rather than being forced to circumvent the Americans.
制造恐慌将变成自我实现的预言--通过制裁和禁令来阻止中国人，但这些政策又迫使中国人将美国人排除在他们的发展之外。
说到底，中国只想做生意，享受成功的果实--更多的钱和更好的生活。他们并不想“干掉”任何人，他们更希望与美国人合作共赢，而不是被迫绕过美国人。