印度有可能在2025年成为超级大国吗?（二）

Is it possible that India will be a superpower in 2025?

2024-03-09 Natsuo 8006 23 6 收藏纠错&举报

译文简介

印度，一个拥有13亿人口的国家，绝对具备超级大国应有的所有能力。但，说起来容易做起来难。阻碍其发展的主要问题包括：

正文翻译

Shaech Shah
India, a country of 1.3 billion, definitely, has all the capabilities that a superpower should have.
But, its easier said than done.
The main issues that curb the growth are:

印度，一个拥有13亿人口的国家，绝对具备超级大国应有的所有能力。但，说起来容易做起来难。阻碍其发展的主要问题包括：

· Lack of Education
· Orthodox Mindset
· Craze to work in foreign land
· Caste based reservation should be replaced by Talent based reservation
· Emphasis on Practical Knowledge
· Knack to initiate an innovation

· 教育匮乏 · 保守思维 · 热衷于在国外工作 · 基于种姓的配额制度应被基于才能的配额所取代 · 强调实践知识 · 发起创新的天赋

Not to forget, CORRUPTION and POPULATION are still the major factors.
Just talking about all these will not work.
Each citizen has to work towards it considering their own responsibility.
People here need to get over the cliché of society, false ego and secularism and stop following the sheep-herd.

不要忘记，腐败和人口仍然是主要因素。单纯谈论这些是行不通的。每个公民都必须为此努力，考虑到自己的责任。这里的人们需要摆脱社会陈规、虚假自我和世俗主义的陈词滥调，停止盲从群体。

I mean, why can’t our kids not make a video game instead of playing them like the children of so-called superpower countries
This is just an instance.
I don’t know in how many years, but India can be a superpower if they upgrade themselves instead of thinking what ‘sharmaji ka beta’ is doing.

我的意思是，为什么我们的孩子不能像所谓超级大国的孩子一样制作视频游戏，而不是只会玩游戏呢？这只是一个例子。我不知道需要多少年，但如果印度能够提升自己，而不是想着“邻家小孩”在做什么，那么印度可以成为一个超级大国。

原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

评论翻译

K W Baskaran
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit the US in late September, according to Indian media reports. It is Modi's first overseas visit in about six months, and the first trip to the US since President Joe Biden took office. Against the backdrop of continuing COVID-19 pandemic in both the US and India, Modi's visit at this time signals that he hopes the India-US ties to be closer and the bilateral cooperation can be ramped up.

根据印度媒体报道，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪预计将于九月底访问美国。这是莫迪近六个月来的首次海外访问，也是自美国总统乔·拜登上任以来的首次访问。在美国和印度都面临持续的新冠疫情背景下，莫迪此次访问表明他希望加强印美关系，并提升双边合作。

Even though the agenda of the visit has not been finalized, some Indian media outlets, such as the Mint, anticipate that the two sides could talk about "issues of common concern like China." This does not come as a surprise. Dealing with the challenge from China is a common concern of the US and India. In fact, New Delhi and Washington are moving closer because of China. Other potential discussions might pertain to the Quad and Indo-Pacific Strategy. These, too, are aimed to counter the so-called China threat.

尽管访问的议程尚未最终确定，印度《Mint》等媒体预计双方可能会讨论“像中国这样的共同关切问题”。这并不令人意外。应对来自中国的挑战是美国和印度的共同关切。事实上，新德里和华盛顿之间的接近正是因为中国的缘故。其他可能的讨论可能涉及四方机制和印太战略。这些也旨在应对所谓的中国威胁。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

"With the situation in Afghanistan unfolding rapidly, Modi's visit is significant," remarked the Indian Express. Such a perspective makes sense. The Taliban's seizure of power was a vital setback for both the US and India. There is a Chinese saying that goes "Those who have the same illness sympathize with each other." This can be used to describe the situation the US and India are currently encountering with the situation in Afghanistan. After the US' hasty withdrawal, some analysts say India is the biggest loser. Both New Delhi and Washington seem to have lost their influence over Afghanistan after the Taliban seized power. In this context, discussions over coordinating the Afghan situation will definitely become a hot topic.

《印度快报》评论道：“随着阿富汗局势迅速发展，莫迪的访问非常重要。”这样的观点是有道理的。塔利班夺取政权对美国和印度都是重大挫折。中国有句谚语，“同病相怜”，可以用来形容美国和印度在阿富汗局势中所面临的情况。在美国匆忙撤军后，一些分析人士称印度是最大的输家。塔利班夺取政权后，新德里和华盛顿似乎都失去了对阿富汗的影响力。在这种背景下，协调阿富汗局势的讨论肯定会成为一个热门话题。

India has a great power dream. The Modi government believes the US is the most reliable partner to help it realize the dream. Despite highlighting diplomatic independence, New Delhi is leaning heavily toward Washington.

印度有一个伟大的强国梦想。莫迪政府认为美国是帮助实现这一梦想最可靠的伙伴。尽管强调外交独立，新德里在很大程度上倾向于华盛顿。

There are voices in India saying that India-US bilateral relations are at an all-time high. However, certain moves by the US have reminded India of the "trust deficit" between the two countries. For example, The Indian Express published an article in April indicating that some practices of the US actually impinge on India's strategic autonomy. As such, India needs to be astute and cautious and not become dependent.

印度有声音称印美双边关系处于历史最高水平。然而，美国的某些举动提醒印度存在两国之间的“信任赤字”。例如，今年四月，《印度快报》发表了一篇文章指出，美国的一些做法实际上侵犯了印度的战略自主权。因此，印度需要机智谨慎，不要过于依赖。

India and the US are moving closer politically. But there are still different voices within India. In Indian media and strategic circles, there is a historical sense of wariness and guard against the US.

印度和美国在政治上越来越接近。但在印度内部仍存在不同的声音。在印度媒体和战略圈中，存在对美国的历史戒备和警惕。

Since the beginning of this year, certain moves by Washington have disappointed many Indians. For example, the US responded slowly to help India when the Asian country's coronavirus cases were rising exponentially. In August, the Biden administration conveyed to New Delhi that it is not interested in a free trade agreement with India. The latter had expectations that Washington would deliver on this.

自今年年初以来，华盛顿的某些举动令许多印度人失望。例如，当印度新冠病例急剧增加时，美国对印度的援助反应迟缓。今年八月，拜登政府向新德里传达了不对印度进行自由贸易协定的兴趣。后者原本对华盛顿能够兑现承诺抱有期望。

This is because the US has its own interests to defend. All these have deepened the concerns of India's skeptical public. Furthermore, with the irresponsible withdrawal from Afghanistan, the US obviously did not consider the feelings of its allies and partners, including India. This rash move also triggered great challenges and difficulties for India to safeguard its own vested interests in Afghanistan.

这是因为美国有自己需要捍卫的利益。所有这些都加深了印度怀疑的公众的担忧。此外，随着对阿富汗的不负责任撤军，美国显然没有考虑到包括印度在内的盟友和合作伙伴的感受。这种草率的行动也给印度在维护其在阿富汗的既得利益上带来了巨大的挑战和困难。

Indian strategic elites claim that their country sticks to the path of strategic autonomy and this won't be affected by deepening ties with the US. Such rhetoric can hardly hold water nowadays. India needs the US more than the US needs India. The more India relies on the US, the fewer strategic initiatives it will have. The US will not allow any of its allies or partners to have an equal footing with it.

印度战略精英声称他们的国家坚持战略自主道路，这不会受到与美国加深关系的影响。这种说法如今几乎站不住脚。印度比美国更需要美国。印度越依赖美国，战略主动权就越少。美国不会允许任何盟友或伙伴与其平起平坐。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

In addition, relations between Russia and the US have become more and more confrontational with many irreconcilable conflicts. Moscow is also dissatisfied with New Delhi's approach toward the Indo-Pacific region. A closer relationship between India and the US is creating divergence between India and Russia.

此外，俄罗斯与美国之间的关系越来越对抗，存在许多无法调和的冲突。莫斯科对新德里在印太地区的做法也感到不满。印度与美国之间的紧密关系正在导致印度与俄罗斯之间的分歧。

Rohit Arya
This is certainly not happening anytime soon. We may have a strong military front but that alone is not sufficient to make us one of the world giants.
India is yet to face a lot of challenges which nobody has foreseen. So being a major world power won’t happen in the next 5 decades at least.

这肯定不会很快发生。我们可能拥有强大的军事力量，但光靠这一点还不足以让我们成为世界巨头。印度还将面临许多挑战，这是没有人预料到的。所以至少在未来5十年内，印度不会成为一个主要世界强国。

We may have ventured into space, adopted the mobile technologies, built smart banking systems, improved our rail connectivities, but as a country, we have yet not solved the problems at the grass-root level. Education, vocational skills, and health care are the primary pillars which still pose a threat to all the development we have made or plan to make.
We are a population of people blinded by the media i.e. the news channels, political social media campaigns, and of course the Religion.

我们可能已经进入了太空，采用了移动技术，建立了智能银行系统，改善了我们的铁路连接，但作为一个国家，我们还没有解决基层问题。教育、职业技能和保健是主要支柱，它们仍然对我们已经取得或计划取得的所有发展构成威胁。
我们是一群被媒体蒙蔽的人，即新闻频道、政治社交媒体活动，当然还有宗教。

· We talk about clashes with our neighboring countries and how our military will perform if a war breaks out!
· We talk about women not being allowed in temples!
· We talk about celebrities threating to leave the country!
· About the rising pollution levels in the cities!

· 我们谈论与邻国的冲突，以及如果爆发战争时我们的军队将如何表现！
· 我们谈论妇女不能进入寺庙！
· 我们谈论名人威胁要离开这个国家！
· 关于城市污染水平不断上升！

· We talk about Lokpal bills and combating corruption with its help. FYI - This used to be a hot topic several years ago!
All these things we talk and listen to are Secondary!
But, we all negate the fact that our country is still highly dependent on agriculture, we are immensely dependent on our neighboring countries for even the smallest of daily-use goods, a major portion of our population still lives in villages where they have either limited or no electricity supply. We still have people living in poor unhygienic conditions and many die every day due to the lack of food or healthcare facilities near their place.

我们谈论廉政法案以及如何借助它来打击腐败。顺便说一句 - 这曾几年前是一个热门话题！我们谈论和听到的所有这些都是次要的！但是，我们都忽略了一个事实，那就是我们国家仍然高度依赖农业，我们对邻国甚至最小的日常用品都有极大的依赖，我国的绝大部分人口仍生活在有限或没有电力供应的村庄里。我们仍有人生活在贫困不卫生的条件下，每天都有人因缺乏食物或医疗设施而死亡。

And all the blame for this situation goes to our Education infrastructure and the quality of education being imparted to the kids of the nation. There has been little or no innovation in the education sector of our country. We don’t need more schools, we need better schooling. A schooling system tailored to eradicate the problems at the grassroots levels.
And I am certain that India won’t become a major world power unless we stop listening to the media and political parties or leaders!

· 而所有这种情况的责任都归咎于我们的教育基础设施和向国家儿童传授的教育质量。我们国家的教育领域几乎没有创新。我们不需要更多学校，我们需要更好的教育。一个旨在消除基层问题的教育系统。我确信，除非我们停止听从媒体和政党或领导人的意见，印度不会成为一个主要世界强国！

Chetan Ballal
In a First view my answer is -
No.
Mainly because less than 8 years left.
A superpower country is a combination of strong military might, economic dominance, political influence ans mostly a cultural hegemony.
(human development , education and internal peace is not directly associated with term superpower.)

首先，我的答案是- 不。主要是因为剩下不到8年的时间。一个超级大国是强大的军事力量、经济主导地位、政治影响力以及主要是文化霸权的结合体。（人类发展、教育和内部和平与“超级大国”这个词并没有直接关联。）

Just google and it is easy to find various data, reports and graphs to compare the above parameters among different major countries. Also, existing value, growth rate and future expectations can be shown by various charts, graphs and facts.

只需谷歌一下，就能找到各种数据、报告和图表，比较不同主要国家在上述参数方面的情况。此外，各种图表、图形和事实可以展示现有价值、增长率和未来预期。

In military might, US is only country which has commands distributed into globe zones and not in national zones. It reflects the meaning that US has direct planning and preparedness to fight all kinds of war at virtually any place in the world. The technical advancement and innovation of US is known to world. US military expenditure is more than the same of next 12 countries combined together!!!
India is not like Russia (better say USSR, before 1991) which had highly centralized command and a will to invest highly in military strength.
India is not like China which has capacity to invest heavy money for defense import and developments.

在军事力量方面，美国是唯一一个将指挥权分布在全球区域而不是国家区域的国家。这反映了美国直接计划和准备在世界上任何地方进行各种战争的意愿。美国的技术先进和创新为世界所知。美国的军事支出超过了排名第二到第十三的12个国家的总和！！
印度不像俄罗斯（最好在1991年之前说苏联）那样拥有高度集中的指挥权并愿意大力投资于军事力量。
印度也不像中国，后者有能力为国防进口和发展投入巨额资金。

* let's think some positive.....
India already is one of the most powerful countries.
Only thing left in its arsenal is induction of ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) with range in excess of 10,000 Km.
Agni VI currently in development with range of around 12,000 Km is slated to be under trial by 2018.
Other than that, India achieved Nuclear Triad capability, Aircraft Carriers, Nuclear Submarines, Own GPS satellite networks, etc which does make it a Super-power. Along with it, some form of coalition with US, Japan, Australia and other South-East Asian countries will provide a final push to the level of a Super power.
I guess what you wanted to know was related to India being a “Developed Country”. That will still take couple of decades, primarily due to huge Population and slow Infrastructure development.

· 让我们想一些积极的方面...... 印度已经是最强大的国家之一。它的武器库中唯一缺少的是射程超过10,000公里的洲际弹道导弹（ICBMs）。 Agni VI目前正在研发中，射程约为12,000公里，计划在2018年进行试验。除此之外，印度已经实现了核三位一体能力、航空母舰、核潜艇、自己的GPS卫星网络等，这确实使其成为一个超级大国。此外，与美国、日本、澳大利亚和其他东南亚国家的某种形式的联盟将为其提供最后一击，使其达到超级大国的水平。我想你想知道的是印度是否成为一个“发达国家”。这仍需要几十年的时间，主要是由于庞大的人口和缓慢的基础设施建设。

* Think some General -
How India can become a super power ?
After all what constitutes a world-leader :

· 思考一些一般性问题 - 印度如何成为一个超级大国？毕竟，一个世界领袖包括：

1.If its population , we are on course to top the charts , we will overtake china by 2022
2. Is it military strength , we have the world’s fourth largest army
3. Is it nuclear capacity , we are among the top ten nuclear powers of the world
4. Is it the economy , well we are the third largest economy on the PPP basis and we continue to grow , even when the rest of the world took a beating in the last few years , we are growing at 7.6 %
At last I like to say that where there is a will there is a way ….
Thanks…

1. 如果是人口，我们正朝着排行榜的榜首迈进，到2022年我们将超过中国
2. 如果是军事力量，我们拥有世界第四大军队
3. 如果是核能力，我们是世界前十大核大国之一
4. 如果是经济，我们是基于购买力平价的第三大经济体，我们持续增长，即使在过去几年全球其他地区遭受重创的情况下，我们的增长率为7.6% 最后我想说，有志者事竟成…… 谢谢...

Davinder Kumar
Why you want India to be a superpower ????
Superpower are never liked or loved , everyone were and are afraid of super power.
Mostly they are DADA (Goon) of the area.
I want India to be a developed country , prosperous country , peaceful country , strong country but not a super power.
Thanks.

为什么你希望印度成为超级大国？超级大国往往不受喜爱，每个人都害怕他们。大多数时候，他们是该地区的霸主。我希望印度成为一个发达的国家、繁荣的国家、和平的国家、强大的国家，但不是超级大国。谢谢。

Ram Shankar
When I was a small kid in 90s, especially in 1997 during g 50 year independence celebration many people including a small kid like me believed that India will be a developed country by 2020, that was 21 years ago. Lot of things changed, but we never become developed, leave alone super power.!
No we won't be developed by 2025 or by 2030.

当我还是个小孩子的时候，尤其是在90年代的1997年，在庆祝50周年独立日的时候，包括像我这样一个小孩子在内的许多人相信到2020年印度将成为一个发达国家，那已经是21年前的事了。很多事情发生了变化，但我们从未成为发达国家，更不用说超级大国了！不，我们不会在2025年或2030年之前成为发达国家。

Deepak Kumar
By 2100 we will be surely a superpower.
By 2070 also we can become if we control population, corruption and do 100 steps to improve our existing system.
Eg : education , laws, judicial system, political system, labour, banking, taxation laws, focus on agriculture, industry, infrastructure, science, technology, R&D etc

到2100年，我们肯定会成为超级大国。即使到2070年，如果我们控制人口、腐败，并采取100项措施改善我们现有的制度，我们也有可能实现。例如：教育、法律、司法体系、政治体系、劳动力、银行业、税收法律、关注农业、工业、基础设施、科学、技术和研发等。

Sandip Ramakrishnan
Probably not. Although I wouldn't discount the possibility, there's a lot of work still left to be done and 10 years us a very short time to achieve it in.

也许不会。虽然我不排除这种可能性，但还有很多任务要做，而10年对于实现这一目标来说是非常短暂的时间。

1. High levels of poverty.
2. Dependence on other nations for military tech.
3. Low enrollment into the armed services.
4. High levels of corruption.
5. Inadequate and ailing infrastructure.
6. Trade deficit.

1. 高度贫困。
2. 对其他国家的军事技术依赖。
3. 入伍率低。
4. 高度腐败。
5. 不充足且不健康的基础设施。
6. 贸易逆差。

7. Low GDP per capita, not at par with developed nations. China's is 6 times ours, while the US is 50 times ours.
8. Manufacturing sector is below par.
9. Weak currency.
10. High population.

7. 人均国内生产总值（GDP）较低，与发达国家不相当。中国是我们的6倍，而美国是我们的50倍。
8. 制造业水平不高。
9. 货币疲软。
10. 人口众多。

11. Lack of oil deposits.
12. High levels of bureaucracy.
13. Slow manufacturing sector growth.
14. Lack of indigenous R&D through major sectors.
And many more. It will take a couple of decades at least for the economy to grow enough and for our manufacturing and indigenous military technology to catch up to any of the developed nations. We could be a superpower in about 25 years if everything goes well.

11. 缺乏石油储备。
12. 官僚主义严重。
13. 制造业增长缓慢。
14. 缺乏主要领域的自主研发等。还有许多其他问题。经济要增长足够，我们的制造业和自主军事技术才能在几十年内迎头赶上任何发达国家。如果一切顺利，大约需要25年时间才能成为超级大国。

印度 2025年 超级大国

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