UK public services will buckle under planned spending cuts, economists warn
-Chancellor is considering cutting billions more from public spending to pay for reductions in tax or NI

经济学家警告称，英国公共服务将在计划中的开支削减下陷入困境
——财政大臣正在考虑从公共支出中再削减数十亿美元，以抵消税收削减或支付国民保险制度


(Jeremy Hunt is preparing for another round of tax reductions in next week’s budget.)

（杰里米·亨特正在为下周预算中的新一轮减税做准备。）
新闻：

Britain’s stretched public services will buckle under the weight of the spending cuts being planned for after the election, economists have warned, as Jeremy Hunt prepares for another round of tax reductions in next week’s budget.

经济学家警告称，英国紧张的公共服务将在大选后计划的削减开支的重压下崩溃，而杰里米·亨特正准备在下周的预算中实施新一轮减税。

Experts say the level of public sector spending pencilled in for the next parliament would mean cuts equivalent to those undertaken by David Cameron’s government from 2010 to 2015. Some have warned the next government will not be able to implement them, and will be forced either to raise taxes or borrow more to fund emergency spending.

专家表示，下一届议会的公共部门支出水平将意味着削减相当于戴维·卡梅伦政府2010年至2015年的削减幅度。一些人警告说，下一届政府将无法实施这些措施，并将被迫提高税收或借入更多资金来为紧急支出提供资金。

The stark warnings come as the chancellor considers cutting billions more from his public spending plans to pay for further reductions in either income tax or national insurance at next week’s budget. Last week the Resolution Foundation calculated such a move would mean taking a fifth out of budgets for certain departments across the parliament, sparking concern among economists, trade unxs and even some Conservatives.

上述严厉警告发出之际，正值财政大臣考虑在下周的预算中，从公共支出计划中再削减数十亿美元，以抵消所得税的进一步削减或支付国民保险。上周，决议基金会计算出，此举将意味着英国议会某些部门的预算将被削减五分之一，这引发了经济学家、工会甚至一些保守党人的担忧。

James Smith, research director at the thinktank, said: “We are essentially returning to austerity levels of cuts in terms of the implied spending cuts.”

该智库的研究主管詹姆斯·史密斯表示：“就隐含的支出削减而言，我们基本上正在回到紧缩状态的削减水平。”

Referring to the possibility of reducing spending plans even further to pay for steeper tax cuts at the budget, Smith added: “We are talking about going from one set of undeliverable spending plans to something that is worse. How could we take 20% out of the justice budget, for example? It is extremely difficult.”

在谈到进一步削减支出计划以抵消预算中更大幅度减税的可能性时，史密斯补充说：“我们正在谈论从一套无法实现的支出计划转向更糟糕的计划。比如，我们怎么能从司法预算中削减20%呢？这非常困难。”

Stuart Hoddinott, a senior researcher at the Institute for Government, said: “The current state of public services are generally pretty poor across the board. If any government was to try and implement these spending plans, they would lead to a deterioration in performance that would be unacceptable to any government.”

政府研究所的高级研究员斯图尔特·霍迪诺特说：“目前公共服务的状况总体上很差。如果任何政府试图实施这些支出计划，就会导致绩效恶化，这对任何政府来说都是不可接受的。”

Hunt announced a 2p cut to national insurance at the autumn statement last year, with public spending forecast to rise 1% above inflation each year over the next parliament as a result.

亨特在去年的秋季声明中宣布削减2个百分点的国民保险，结果，在下一届议会中，公共支出预计每年将比通货膨胀率高出1%。

However, much of that money will be taken up by just a few departments where spending is protected.

然而，这些钱中的大部分将被少数几个支出受到保护的部门占用。

They include health, where both the government and the Labour party have signed up to a plan to recruit more staff, which would mean budget increases of 3.6% a year. Defence is also protected, given Britain’s commitment to meet the Nato target of spending 2% of GDP on defence, as is international aid, which has to remain at at least 0.5% of gross national income.

其中包括医疗保健，政府和工党都签署了一项计划，招聘更多的员工，这意味着预算每年增长3.6%。国防支出也受到保护，因为英国承诺达到北约的目标——将GDP的2%用于国防，国际援助也必须保持至少占国民总收入的0.5%。

As a result, unprotected departments are likely to face swingeing cuts across the next five years unless the next government raises taxes or borrows more. The departments likely to face heavy spending reductions include justice, local government and the Home Office.

因此，除非下一届政府提高税收或增加借贷，否则不受保护的部门很可能在未来五年内面临大幅削减。可能面临大幅削减开支的部门包括司法、地方政府和内政部。

The Labour party is planning to relieve some of the spending pressure with particular tax rises, such as ending the non-dom regime, which will raise money to pay for more weekend and evening GP appointments, among other things. Apart from those one-off schemes, however, the shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has ruled out raising income or wealth taxes to fund daily departmental spending.

工党正计划通过特别增税来减轻一些支出压力，比如结束非户籍制度，这将筹集资金来支付更多的周末和晚上的全科医生预约开销，以及其他事情。然而，除了这些一次性计划，影子财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯已经排除了提高所得税或财产税以资助部门日常支出的可能性。

Unlike in 1997 or 2010, however, the next government will take office with public services already at breaking point.

然而，与1997年或2010年不同，下届政府将在公共服务已经处于崩溃边缘的情况下上台。

In the justice system, for example, the crown court case backlog for England and Wales stood at 64,709 by last June – more than 50% higher than three years previously. In 2022 it took an average of 379 days to process an offence from it being committed to the end of a trial, up from 251 days in 2019.

比如，在司法系统中，截至去年6月，英格兰和威尔士的刑事法庭案件积压达64709件，比三年前高出50%以上。2022年，从犯罪开始到审判结束平均需要379天，高于2019年的251天。

In local government, eight English councils have in effect declared themselves bankrupt since 2018 and a fifth of local authorities believe they are likely to go bust over the next year.

在地方政府方面，自2018年以来，已有8个英格兰地方议会宣布破产，五分之一的地方当局认为它们可能在明年破产。

Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics, said: “The problem is that this comes on the back of large real-terms cuts for those departments from 2010 to 2015 and quite restrained spending since then. Efficiency savings have long since been exhausted – you’re now really talking about choosing which services not to provide any more.”

牛津经济研究院首席英国经济学家安德鲁·古德温表示：“问题在于，2010年至2015年，这些部门的实际支出大幅削减，此后支出相当有限。效率节约早已耗尽——你现在真正讨论的是选择不再提供哪些服务。”

Public sector unxs have begun to sound the alarm about the cuts to come. Christina McAnea, the general secretary of Unison, said: “Public services are in the last chance saloon. Years of underfunding mean they’re already close to collapse and slashing spending further still is the last thing anyone needs.”

公共部门工会已经开始对即将到来的削减敲响警钟。工会秘书长克里斯蒂娜·麦卡尼亚说：“公共服务是最后的机会。多年的资金不足意味着它们已经接近崩溃，进一步削减开支仍然是任何人最不需要的。”

But some Conservatives are also concerned about whether the plans are possible to deliver. Lord Deben, the former Tory chair, told the Observer last weekend: “The priority for most people at the moment is to improve public services to make sure that those who are least well off are looked after and to make it more attractive to work.”

但一些保守党人也担心这些计划是否有可能实现。前保守党主席德本勋爵上周末告诉《观察家报》：“目前大多数人的首要任务是改善公共服务，以确保那些最不富裕的人得到照顾，并使工作更具吸引力。”

In a letter on Monday, the party’s One Nation caucus urged the chancellor to prioritise measures to help young parents, workers and students, including a multi-year settlement for childcare.

在周一的一封信中，该党的One Nation党团敦促财政大臣优先考虑帮助年轻父母、工人和学生的措施，包括一项为期多年的儿童保育协议。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


The group, which has 107 Tory MPs registered with it, recommended eight policies including capping interest rates on student loans to the average rate commercially available, introducing a levy on foreign owners of vacant luxury flats, and abolishing stamp duty for house buyers who are downsizing.

有107名保守党议员注册的该党团提出了8项政策建议，包括将学生贷款利率限制在商业上可获得贷款的平均利率，对空置豪华公寓的外国业主征税，以及取消对正在缩小规模的购房者征收的印花税。

The group also said the chancellor should cut direct taxes for working people and introduce reforms to tax all income at the same rate, whether it comes from earnings, dividends or benefits.

该组织还表示，财政大臣应该削减工薪阶层的直接税，并引入改革，对所有收入征收相同的税率，无论是来自收益、股息还是福利。

Damian Green, chair of the caucus, said: “This is our chance to demonstrate to voters that we are on their side and that we are taking steps to alleviate pressures they face in all aspects of everyday lives.”

党团会议主席达米安·格林表示：“这是我们向选民表明我们站在他们一边的机会，我们正在采取措施减轻他们在日常生活的方方面面所面临的压力。”