UK state pension age will soon need to rise to 71, say experts
-Research on life expectancy and birthrates shows that ill health makes status quo unsustainable

专家表示,英国领取养老金的法定年龄将很快需要提高到71岁
——对预期寿命和出生率的研究表明,健康状况不佳使现状难以为继


(By age 70, only 50% of adults in England and Wales are now disability-free and able to work.)

(到70岁时,英格兰和威尔士只有50%的成年人身体自由、能够工作。)
新闻:

The retirement age will have to rise to 71 for middle-aged workers across the UK, according to research into the impact of growing life expectancy and falling birthrates on the state pension.

一项有关预期寿命延长和出生率下降对国家养老金影响的研究显示,英国各地中年工人的退休年龄将不得不提高到71岁。

The UK pension age of 66 is set to rise to 67 between May 2026 and March 2028. From 2044, it is expected to rise to 68.

在2026年5月至2028年3月期间,英国的退休年龄将从66岁提高到67岁。预计从2044年起,这一数字将升至68。

But the research suggests that this is not enough, and that anyone born after April 1970 may have to work until they are 71 before claiming their pension.

但研究表明,这还不够,1970年4月以后出生的人可能要工作到71岁才能领取养老金。

This age limit may need to be set even higher, say experts, thanks to the high rate of workers exiting the workforce before they reach state pension age, predominantly due to preventable ill health.

专家表示,这个年龄限制可能需要设定得更高,因为在达到法定领取养老金年龄之前退出劳动力市场的工人比例很高,这主要是由于可预防的疾病。

Les Mayhew, associate head of global research at the International Longevity Centre and author of the report State Pension Age and Demographic Change, said: “In the UK, state pension age would need to be 70 or 71 compared with 66 now, to maintain the status quo of the number of workers per state pensioner.

国际长寿中心全球研究副主管、《国家养老金年龄和人口变化》报告的作者莱斯·梅休表示:“在英国,国家养老金年龄需要从现在的66岁提高到70岁或71岁,才能维持每个国家养老金领取者对应的工作人数的现状。”

“But if you bring preventable ill health into the equation, that would have to increase even more,” added Mayhew, who is also professor of statistics at Bayes Business School and has advised the government on rises to the state pension age multiple times as a senior civil servant and in his current roles.

梅休补充道:“但如果你把可预防的疾病也考虑在内,那就不得不提高更多。”梅休也是贝叶斯商学院的统计学教授,在担任高级公务员和现任职务期间,曾多次建议政府提高领取国家养老金的年龄。

By age 70, only 50% of adults in England and Wales are now disability-free and able to work. A smaller working population and a large economically inactive population reduces the tax base to pay for pensions – and creates huge labour shortages, which creates its own problems.

到70岁时,英格兰和威尔士只有50%的成年人身体自由,能够工作。劳动人口减少和大量不从事经济活动的人口减少了支付养老金的税基,并造成了巨大的劳动力短缺,从而产生了自身的问题。

According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, pensioner benefits will cost the UK government £136bn in 2023-24, of which £124bn will be spent on state pensions.

根据英国预算责任办公室的数据,2023- 2024年,养老金领取者福利将花费英国政府1360亿英镑,其中1240亿英镑将用于国家养老金。

Jonathan Cribb, associate director and head of retirement at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said that while he did not disagree with a higher pension age, increasing it without addressing other cost-saving measures was not “realistic or equitable”.

英国财政研究所副主任兼退休问题负责人乔纳森·克里布表示,尽管他不反对提高领取养老金的年龄,但在不解决其他节省成本措施的情况下提高退休年龄,是“不现实或不公平的”。

He added: “It would disproportionately impact poorer individuals whose ill-health means they have shorter lives, and so who receive pensions for less time.”

他补充说:“这将不成比例地影响较贫穷的个人,他们的健康状况不佳意味着他们的寿命较短,因此他们领取养老金的时间也较短。”

While the ILC’s solution is “illustrative of the kind of pressure that an ageing population puts on the public finance”, a rise in the retirement age to 71 was not a “realistic policy option unless you have a real emergency”, he added.

他补充说,尽管国际长寿中心的解决方案“说明了人口老龄化给公共财政带来的压力”,但将退休年龄提高到71岁并不是一个“现实的政策选择,除非你面临真正的紧急情况”。

Cribb pointed out that while state pensions and pension benefits are estimated to increase by £45bn by 2050, the pressure on public finance from health and social care is estimated to increase by £105bn in today’s terms over the same period. “The real issue is actually around the NHS and social care,” he said.

克里布指出,到2050年,国家养老金和养老金福利预计将增加450亿英镑,而同期来自卫生和社会保健的公共财政压力估计将以今天的价格水平增加1050亿英镑。他说:“真正的问题实际上是围绕国家医疗体系和社会关怀的。”

The Intergenerational Foundation, an independent thinktank, agreed that the pension age had to rise, but questioned on whose shoulders that cost should fall.

独立智库“代际基金会”同意提高领取养老金的年龄,但质疑应该由谁来承担这一成本。

Younger people, their research has found, do not have the financial assets that their parents and grandparents did. In 2010, those under 40 held £7.53 of every £100 of wealth. By 2020, that had fallen to £3.98. One-third of the UK’s 14 million Gen-Xers are at high risk of retiring on insufficient income.

他们的研究发现,年轻人不像他们的父母和祖父母那样拥有金融资产。2010年,在每100英镑的财富中,40岁以下的人持有7.53英镑。到2020年,这一数字已降至3.98英镑。在英国1400万千禧一代中,有三分之一的人面临着以收入不足状态退休的高风险。

Angus Hanton, co-founder of the thinktank, said pension age should be based on life expectancy and occupation. He also supports a wealth tax to fund and pay more towards people’s retirement, and reducing income tax and national insurance.

该智库的联合创始人安格斯·汉顿表示,领取养老金的年龄应该基于预期寿命和职业。他还支持征收财富税,为人们的退休提供更多资金和支付,并减少所得税和国民保险。

“The over-60s should finance their own extra retirement years since they have received such generous treatment from the state,” he said. “The money raised can be used to invest in improving the health and prospects of younger generations so they are less of an economic burden as they age.”

他说:“60岁以上的人应该为自己的额外退休生活筹钱,因为他们从国家得到了如此慷慨的待遇。增加的资金可以用于投资改善年轻一代的健康和前景,这样他们就不会随着年龄的增长成为经济负担。”

Andrew Scott, co-author of the 100-Year Life, whose new book, The Longevity Imperative, will be published shortly, said there needs to be a greater focus on preventing ill health not just in old age but from early age through adulthood.

《百岁人生》一书的合著者安德鲁·斯科特的新书《长寿的必要性》即将出版。他说,我们需要更加关注预防疾病,不仅是老年疾病,还包括从幼年到成年的疾病。

“Increasing the state pension age would be a terrible policy – a really bad way of attempting to make people more productive,” he said.

他说:“提高领取养老金的年龄将是一项糟糕的政策——一种试图提高人们生产力的糟糕方式。”

David Finch, assistant director at the Health Foundation, said increasing the state pension age without providing support for workers with health issues would worsen the situation by exacerbating existing health inequalities. “The government should provide more support for people already out of work due to health issues,” he said. “Employers can help by adapting roles and maintaining contact with employees on sick leave.”

健康基金会助理主任大卫·芬奇表示,提高领取国家养老金的年龄,而不为有健康问题的工人提供支持,将加剧现有的健康不平等,从而使情况进一步恶化。他说:“政府应该为那些因健康问题而失业的人提供更多支持。雇主可以通过调整角色和与请病假的员工保持联系来提供帮助。”
原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


The government said it would ensure that the state pension remained “a sustainable and fair foundation of income for future generations”.

政府表示,它将确保国家养老金仍然是“子孙后代可持续和公平的收入基础”。

A spokesperson said: “We have committed £70m in employment and skills support for the over-50s, which has seen an extra 54,000 over-50s added to company payrolls. Our £2.5bn Back to Work plan is supporting people to stay fit and find work, in addition to £14.1bn to improve health services to help people live longer, healthier lives.”

一位发言人表示:“我们已经承诺为50岁以上的人提供7000万英镑的就业和技能支持,这使得企业工资单新增了5.4万名50岁以上的员工。我们25亿英镑的‘重返工作岗位’计划将支持人们保持健康并找到工作,此外还有141亿英镑用于改善医疗服务,帮助人们活得更长久、更健康。”