For close to a century, Toyota prided itself on its ability to constantly trim the costs of making its complex, highly engineered vehicles.

在近一个世纪的漫长时间里，丰田一直以其有能力不断削减复杂且高度工程化的汽车的制造成本而自豪。

But when Takero Kato, the head of the Toyota division tasked with building electric vehicles, travelled through China in 2018 he was shocked by what he found.

但当丰田电动汽车部门负责人加藤武郎在2018年走访中国时，他对自己的所见所闻感到震惊。

“For the first time, I came face to face with the competitiveness of Chinese components,” he told the company’s internal newspaper, Toyota Times, in November.

“我第一次亲眼见识到中国组件的竞争力，”他在去年11月告诉公司内部报纸《丰田时报》。

“Laying eyes on equipment that I had never seen in Japan and their state of the art manufacturing, I was struck by a sense of crisis,” he recalled. “We’re in trouble!”

“看到我在日本从未见过的设备及其先进制造工艺，我不禁产生一种危机感，”他回忆道。“我们有麻烦了！”

Kato was right to worry. Last year China overtook Japan as the world’s biggest auto exporter, with data from Shanghai-based advisory firm Automobility showing Chinese auto exports have nearly quintupled since 2020 to approach 5mn last year.

加藤的担心是有道理的。中国已在去年超越日本，成为世界最大汽车出口国。上海咨询公司Automobility的数据显示，中国汽车出口量自2020年以来猛增近四倍，去年逼近500万辆。

In the final quarter of 2023 BYD, the Shenzhen-based company backed by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway group, outsold Tesla for the first time, sending a powerful warning signal to the global auto industry.

2023年第四季度，比亚迪的纯电动汽车销量首次超过特斯拉，从而向全球汽车业发出一个强烈的警告信号。比亚迪总部位于深圳，获得了沃伦·巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦集团的投资。

BYD’s sales come mostly from the domestic market, which it dominates. But the group is one of several Chinese EV makers turning their sights to foreign shores.

比亚迪的销量主要来自由其占据主导地位的国内市场，但该集团是将目光投向海外的数家中国电动汽车制造商之一。

China’s entrants — from publicly listed BYD to state-owned Chery — plan to use new regional operations in places like Hungary and Mexico to enter western markets with cheaper electric models, securing their global dominance and challenging storied incumbents such as General Motors, Ford and Volkswagen.

来自中国的新进入者——从公开上市的比亚迪到国有的奇瑞——计划通过在匈牙利和墨西哥等地建立新的区域业务，借助更便宜的电动车型进军西方市场，从而夯实其全球主导地位，并向通用、福特和大众等老牌车企发起挑战。

“No one can match BYD on price. Period,” says Michael Dunne, chief executive of Asia-focused car consultancy Dunne Insights. “Boardrooms in America, Europe, Korea and Japan are in a state of shock.”

“在价格上没有人能与比亚迪匹敌。就这么简单，”专注于亚洲的汽车咨询公司Dunne Insights的首席执行官邓凯说道。“美国、欧洲、韩国和日本的企业董事会都处于震惊状态。”
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


While the US government has responded with numerous subsidies to encourage domestic manufacturing, the prospect of millions of low-cost, high-tech cars made by Chinese companies hitting European shores poses a dilemma for lawmakers there.

美国政府已做出回应，提供大量补贴以鼓励国内制造。与此同时，中国造的低成本高科技汽车将大量登陆欧洲的前景使欧洲立法者陷入两难境地。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


A flood of cheap Chinese car imports could be disastrous for Europe’s incumbent carmakers, with the EU already considering import tariffs to limit the damage.

大量廉价中国汽车涌入可能会给欧洲现有汽车制造商带来灾难性的后果。欧盟已在考虑征收进口关税以减小损害。

But restricting lower-cost imports could stymie the development of the electric vehicle market at a time when Europe is trying to limit fossil fuel emissions and working towards outlawing combustion-engined vehicles altogether by 2035.

但在欧洲试图限制化石燃料排放、并致力于到2035年完全禁止内燃发动机汽车之际，限制低成本产品的进口可能会阻碍电动汽车市场的发展。

Three-quarters of Chinese cars exported today have petrol or diesel engines, notes Bill Russo, former head of Chrysler in north-east Asia and founder of Automobility. But it is the rise of affordable Chinese EVs that is making carmakers nervous around the world and “prompting protectionist governments to consider trade restrictions”.

克莱斯勒东北亚前负责人、Automobility创始人罗威指出，中国目前出口的汽车中有四分之三配备汽油或柴油发动机。但真正让世界各地汽车制造商感到紧张的是价格实惠的中国电动汽车的崛起，这已“促使保护主义意识较强的政府考虑采取贸易限制措施”。

In her State of the unx address in September, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen complained that China was flooding the global market with cheap EVs and that Beijing was making prices “artificially low” via huge state subsidies. The EU has launched a probe into China’s industry, a move that could result in hiked tariffs on Chinese imports.

欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩去年9月在盟情咨文演讲中抱怨道，中国正在向全球市场大量供应廉价电动汽车，北京方面通过巨额国家补贴“人为压低”价格。欧盟已对中国电动汽车行业发起调查，此举可能导致中国输欧产品被征收更高关税。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


In the US, where EVs account for a much lower proportion of car sales than Europe, lobby groups like the Alliance for American Manufacturing have urged the Biden administration to stand vigilant against the Chinese auto groups.

在美国，电动汽车在汽车总销量中的占比远低于欧洲。美国制造业联盟等游说团体敦促拜登政府对中国车企保持警惕。

“A flood of Chinese imports has devastated several of America’s domestic industries in the past, notably undercutting American solar and steel manufacturers,” a spokesperson for the alliance warned last year. “It’s the same formula for disaster that we’re seeing play out with EV batteries”.

“过去，大量的中国进口商品摧毁了美国的多个国内产业，特别是削弱了美国太阳能产品和钢铁制造商的竞争力，”该联盟发言人去年警告称。“这与我们在电动汽车电池领域正在看到的灾难套路相同”。

However, experts warn that even if China’s automakers were confined to their home turf behind a wall of tariff protections, they would still be able to compete with US and European manufacturers on price.

然而专家们警告称，即使中国汽车制造商被关税保护墙阻挡，他们仍然能够在价格上与美国和欧洲制造商竞争。

A key cost advantage for BYD, the company which industry leaders acknowledge poses the biggest threat, comes from its expertise in producing lithium-based batteries, the most expensive single part of an EV. The group, which evolved from a cell phone battery maker in the 1990s and 2000s, has become a world leader in the field.

行业领导者承认比亚迪构成最大的威胁，该公司的关键成本优势来自于其锂电池——电动汽车中成本最高的单一部件——生产诀窍。该集团从1990年代和2000年代的手机电池制造商发展而来，现已成为汽车电池领域的世界领军企业。

According to Bernstein research, BYD batteries are among the lowest cost in the world while also boasting close to the highest energy density, which results in better performance in the cars. Tesla and Toyota are customers of BYD’s battery division.

根据伯恩斯坦的研究，比亚迪的电池跻身于世界上成本最低的电池之列，同时拥有接近最高的能量密度，这使得采用其电池的汽车具有更好的性能。特斯拉和丰田是比亚迪电池部门的客户。

That has helped it undercut its western rivals. BYD’s Atto 3, the company’s cheapest model, sells for €38,000 in Europe, while the Tesla Model 3 is priced at around €43,000 in major markets such as Germany and France. The brand, which already sells in more than 50 countries, has five models on the market in China that sell for less than the equivalent models from Elon Musk’s group.

这帮助它削弱西方对手的价格竞争力。比亚迪最便宜的车型Atto 3在欧洲的售价为3.8万欧元，而特斯拉Model 3在德国和法国等主要市场的售价约为4.3万欧元。产品行销50多个国家的比亚迪，在中国市场上有五款车型售价均低于埃隆·马斯克旗下集团的同级别车型。

Chinese automakers have sufficient unused capacity in their domestic factories to make significant inroads into major overseas markets before they break ground on a single regional hub.

中国汽车制造商的国内工厂有足够的闲置产能，在他们开辟任何区域中心之前，就可以大举进军主要海外市场。

BYD exported nearly 250,000 cars last year and — even without the US or European markets — management have told investors they believe they can increase that by more than tenfold over the coming years.

比亚迪去年出口了近25万辆汽车，管理层告诉投资者，他们相信，即使没有美国或欧洲市场，未来几年也可以将出口量增加十倍以上。

“China still builds and buys more EVs than the rest of the world combined,” says Dunne. “Chinese EV makers are sitting on enough capacity to supply 75 per cent of global EV demand. That should keep western automakers awake at night.”

“中国生产和购买的电动汽车数量仍然超过世界其他国家的总和，”邓凯表示。“中国电动汽车制造商拥有足以满足全球75%电动汽车需求的产能。这应该让西方汽车制造商失眠。”

As Ford prepared to close its ageing factory in Saarlouis, Germany last year, a thought occurred to executives: Why not find another carmaker to take over the site?

去年，当福特准备关闭其位于德国萨尔路易的老旧工厂时，高管们产生了一个想法：为什么不寻找另一家汽车制造商来接手该厂呢？

At its door were several Chinese carmakers, including BYD, that were looking for an easy toehold in Europe’s competitive auto market.

包括比亚迪在内的几家中国汽车制造商就在门口，他们正在寻找一个现成的立足点，以便进入竞争激烈的欧洲汽车市场。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


The talks faltered. A potential buyer walked away. Last month, BYD instead announced it will erect a gleaming new factory in Hungary, “the heart of Europe”, to cater to its growing ambitions.

结果谈判不了了之。一家潜在买家放弃了。上月，比亚迪宣布将在“欧洲的心脏”匈牙利建设一座新厂，以满足其不断增长的雄心。

Yet while Chinese automakers are already encroaching on European territory, gaining a foothold in the $1.5tn US auto sector is the grand prize, especially given the surplus of manufacturing capacity over demand in China itself.

然而，尽管中国汽车制造商已经在蚕食欧洲的地盘，但在1.5万亿美元的美国汽车行业站稳脚跟才是大奖，特别是考虑到中国的制造产能已超过其国内需求。

“It isn’t just ‘the mighty Chinese making great profits at home, and now they’re stepping into the US market’,” says Dunne, the consultant. “They understand that sitting back in China is not an option. They have to come to North America. They have to find a way in. One of the ways in is to establish a base on America’s southern flank.”

“这不仅是‘强大的中国企业在国内赚取巨额利润，现在他们正在试水美国市场’，”邓凯表示。“他们明白，坐守中国不是一个选择。他们必须进军北美。他们必须找到一条进入途径。途径之一是在美国南侧建立一个大本营。”

BYD and several other Chinese carmakers are currently scoping the Mexican market to find new manufacturing sites to better target American consumers, as well as other countries in the region.

比亚迪和另外几家中国汽车制造商正在墨西哥市场寻找新的生产基地，以更好地瞄准美国以及该地区其他国家的消费者。

Chinese groups already stand at a distinct disadvantage in entering the US — especially in the nascent EV sector — compared to rival carmakers from South Korea, Japan and Europe.

在进入美国方面，与韩国、日本和欧洲竞争对手相比，中国汽车制造商已经处于明显劣势，尤其是在方兴未艾的电动汽车领域。

Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act aims to dole out billions in subsidies for EV development to non-Chinese groups in a bid to reduce US exposure to Chinese technology in key supply chains. There is also a trend, difficult to quantify but likely to be significant, of consumer wariness about buying China-made products.

乔·拜登的《降低通胀法》拟向非中国企业提供数十亿美元的电动汽车开发补贴，以减少美国在关键供应链上对中国技术的依赖。还有一种趋势尽管难以量化，但也许不可小觑，那就是消费者对于购买中国造产品的谨慎态度。

Yet experts think companies like BYD could still one day crack the US car market, even accounting for trade barriers and the rise of anti-Chinese sentiment in the US.

然而专家们认为，即使考虑到贸易壁垒以及美国的反中国情绪抬头，比亚迪之类的公司有朝一日仍可能打入美国汽车市场。

The competitive factor, as in Europe, is cost. The lower-price segment of the auto market has largely been abandoned by the “Detroit Three” of General Motors, Ford and Chrysler-owner Stellantis, who have concentrated instead on pick-ups and sports utility vehicles.

与欧洲一样，竞争因素是成本。底特律三巨头——通用、福特和克莱斯勒所有者斯特兰蒂斯——已基本上放弃汽车市场的较低端，转而专注于皮卡和运动型多用途车。

Dunne notes that the average price of a new car in the US this year is about $48,000. “Imagine [Chinese automakers] come in with a $20,000 product. The current tariff of 25 per cent knocks it up to $25,000 or $26,000. They are still in a very good position.”

邓凯指出，如今美国一辆新车的平均价格约为4.8万美元。“想象一下（中国汽车制造商）推出一款2万美元的产品。25%的现行关税使其价格达到2.5万或2.6万美元。他们仍然处于非常有利的地位。”

But others point out that cost advantage is not set in stone. Once groups like BYD start manufacturing outside China, they will not enjoy the same levels of state support as they do inside the country, says Jorge Guajardo, a former Mexican ambassador to China and now a partner at Dentons Global Advisors.

但其他人指出，成本优势并不是一成不变的。墨西哥前驻华大使、如今是Dentons Global Advisors合伙人的豪尔赫·瓜哈尔多表示，一旦像比亚迪这样的企业开始在中国境外从事制造，他们将享受不到中国境内那种水平的国家支持。

“The subsidies cannot easily be exported; they are energy, state and local taxes,” he says. “There are not that many examples of Chinese manufacturing abroad. In countries which are competitive in their auto sectors, as is the case in Mexico, the Chinese will have to face a type of competition that they’d be hard pressed to face without the subsidies.”

“补贴——其形式包括能源、国家和地方税——是不容易输出的，”他表示。“中资在海外从事制造的实例并不多。在汽车行业具有竞争力的国家，比如墨西哥，中国企业将不得不面对他们在没有补贴的情况下很难面对的竞争。”

Western governments are increasingly on guard against China’s incursion into their markets.

西方各国政府越来越警惕中国侵入其市场。

The Biden administration has privately cautioned Mexico about the imminent wave of Chinese investment. Congressional representatives wrote in a recent letter they were worried Chinese companies would use Mexico as a “back door” into their market.

拜登政府已在不公开场合就即将到来的中国投资浪潮向墨西哥发出告诫。美国国会议员们在最近的一封信中写道，他们担心中国公司会利用墨西哥作为进入美国市场的“后门”。

The EU anti-dumping and subsidy investigation, meanwhile, will set out its conclusions by November this year.

与此同时，欧盟的反倾销和补贴调查将于今年11月公布结论。

At the same time, officials in both the US and Europe are also sharpening their focus on the perceived security risks of having China-made components in critical infrastructure such as energy and telecoms. Such concerns will now be applied to Chinese vehicles as well as batteries and other clean technologies, experts say.

与此同时，美欧官员也变得更加关注他们眼中能源和电信等关键基础设施使用中国造组件带来的安全风险。专家们表示，这类担忧现在将适用于中国汽车以及电池和其他清洁技术。

For their part, Chinese auto executives are pushing back at what they regard as western protectionism. They have called for fair treatment, arguing that foreign automakers have long profited from selling into China’s huge consumer market.

中国汽车业高管则在反击他们所认为的西方保护主义。他们呼吁公平对待，指出外国汽车制造商多年获利于向庞大的中国市场销售汽车。

They are also trying to position themselves as “global” companies to counter western consumers’ misgivings around Chinese groups. William Li, founder and chief executive of Shanghai-headquartered EV group Nio, told the FT late last year that investors from outside China hold more than 80 per cent of the company’s shares. The company has maintained a Silicon Valley office since its founding in 2015.

他们还试图将自己定位为“全球”公司，以消除西方消费者对中资集团的疑虑。总部位于上海的电动汽车集团蔚来创始人和首席执行官李斌去年末告诉英国《金融时报》，中国境外的投资者持有该公司80%以上股份。该公司自2015年成立以来一直在硅谷设有办事处。

“We’ve hoped to become a global start-up since our inception,” Li told the FT last year. “The problem we’re solving is also something the whole world is faced with together.”

“自成立以来，我们一直希望成为一家全球初创企业，”李斌去年告诉英国《金融时报》。“我们正在解决的问题也是全世界共同面临的问题。”

Western policymakers considering blocking China from their clean tech supply chains will need to consider the impact on their net zero ambitions, says Cory Combs, associate director at the Beijing-based Trivium China consultancy.

总部位于北京的策纬咨询公司的副总监柯瑞·康姆斯表示，有心阻止中国进入其清洁技术供应链的西方政策制定者，需要考虑这么做对自身的净零雄心的影响。

He adds that while governments are justified in seeking to diversify supply chains, western countries risk “pushing themselves into a corner” by inhibiting their own climate transitions without sufficient mitigation strategies in place.

他补充说，尽管各国政府寻求供应链多元化是合理的，但西方国家如果没有足够的缓解战略，就会因为阻碍本国的气候转型而“把自己逼入困境”。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


“We’re quickly approaching a make-or-break moment . . . I wonder if that trade-off is being thoroughly considered in a lot of capitals.”

“我们很快就会迎来一个决定成败的关键时刻……我想知道许多国家是否充分权衡了利弊得失。”