【小米进军中国电动汽车竞赛】


xiaomi Corp.’s (1810.HK) brief life story is closely intertwined with its charismatic founder and CEO Lei Jun, who was a telecoms layman when he launched the company that would go on to become one of China’s and the world’s biggest smartphone makers. But can he pull it off again with new energy vehicles (NEV)?

有看过《一往无前》这本书，就知道小米集团(1810.HK)的热血十年，雷军从一个手机外行人，怎样将小米攀上销售巅峰，今天他是否要在新能源车上，复制其成功模式?

Lei certainly thinks so, and is pumping huge resources into the space as part of his bigger vision of building a xiaomi ecosystem of smart devices that can communicate with each other and their owners in a future world often called the internet of things (IoT).

雷军当然希望，并投入大量资源在汽车领域，通过智能设备而在物联网中相互通信，作为构建小米智能生态系统更大愿景的一部分。

Lei unveiled the latest piece in that ecosystem just before the end of last year with xioami’s demonstration of its first NEV, the eye-catching SU7, which some likened to a mix of Porsche’s Taycan and a composite of Tesla’s style. Lei emphasized repeatedly the SU7 won’t be aimed at NEV users looking to save a buck, noting it would be “impossible” to price such a model at 99,000 yuan ($13,961) or even 149,000 yuan. “Please show some respect for all the technologies we’ve invested in,” he told the crowd, responding to repeated questions about the pricing.

去年底的小米汽车发布会上，雷军展示小米第一部电动车SU7，外型教人眼前一亮，虽然有人指它像保时捷的Taycan与特斯拉的混合体，但其颜值确实超爆，所有设备及技术也是高端，难怪雷军一再强调：“不要喊9万9了，不可能的！”但市场总聚焦在价格上，雷军只好补充：“14万9也不用再讲了，还是要尊重一下科技。”

Such response indicates that xiaomi will no longer adopt an “affordability first” strategy with its new NEV foray, unlike its smartphones which rose to early prominence on their low prices. Now, it will be up to the market to decide what to make of the SU7 when it officially hits China’s crowded NEV market this year.

言下之意，小米汽车难再走超平路线，至于是否雷军向市场做了价格期望，到时又以低价去抢市场，一切要在今年SU7正式推出后才揭晓。

Aiming high for the global top five

要成全球五大车厂

Despite xiaomi’s late arrival to NEVs, Lei said his company would spare no expense to catch its competitors, some with a decade or more of experience. “We’ll put in 10 times more effort, starting with the basics and working our way up to build a good car with craftsmanship,” he said. “We aim to become one of the world’s top five automakers in 15 to 20 years.”

雷军在发布会上的豪言壮语，展现了无比决心。汽车行业已经过百多年发展，要在赛道上竞跑并无捷径，他许下承诺：“以十倍努力去投入，从底层核心技术做起，认认真真造一辆好车，经过15 年到 20 年的努力，成为全球前五的汽车厂商，为中国汽车工业全面崛起而奋斗。”

Markets were less impressed with the highly hyped and widely anticipated debut. xiaomi’s stock sank steadily throughout the launch day, ending down 4% at HK$15.28 for the day. Does that mean investors are bearish on its NEV gambit? We personally don’t have a crystal ball to answer that question directly, though company and broader market conditions may offer some clues.

雷军的演说激动人心，但事实又另一回事，特别是投资市场，似乎并不买账，发布会当天股价不升反跌，一度跌近2%，翌日跌势未止，收盘跌逾4%，报15.28港元，是否意味大家不看好其发展前景？我们没有水晶球，最终小米汽车能否跑出尚属未知之素，但可以尝试从大环境及公司层面去探讨分析。

It’s no secret that China’s NEV market is already quite crowded with established giants like Tesla and BYD, alongside newcomers like Nio, XPeng, Li Auto Inc. and Leapmotor. As a latecomer, xiaomi will need to work extra hard to attract attention. What’s more, China’s NEV market, which accounts for more than half of global sales, may be slowing down after several years of rapid growth.

先说整体市场，新能源车这条赛道强手云集，国外有特斯拉，国内有比亚迪(1211.HK; 002594.SZ)，加上“蔚小理”及零跑(9863.HK)等几家造车新势力，竞争已十分白热化，市场都质疑小米这个后来者如何突围而出，稍有差池，随时走上败亡之路。而且，新能源车经过这几年的急速增长，市场或许会放缓下来。

Rise of NEVs

电车市场方兴未艾

Spurred by the global drive for reduced carbon emissions, NEVs are expected to gradually replace traditional gasoline-powered vehicles over the next decade. And with penetration rates still relatively low, there is plenty of room for new players.

从近年全球对减碳排放的要求，以及近年各地对新能源车的布局，可以预计未来的世界，新能源车会逐渐取代汽油为燃料的车辆，问题只是时间，因此对于市场饱和这一点，暂时似乎不用太担心。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


China’s NEV sales have soared from 1.37 million in 2020 to 6.89 million in 2022, with the market growing 158% in 2021 and 96% in 2022, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). The penetration rate for NEVs in China reached around 36% as of November last year, a relatively high figure but still far from saturation. And with penetration rates much lower overseas, Chinese NEV makers have plenty of space to grow both at home and abroad.

根据中国汽车工业协会数据，在2020年至2022年，中国新能源汽车销量为136.7万辆、352.1万辆以及688.7万辆，按年增长10.9%、157.6%及95.6%。截至今年11月，内地新能源汽车渗透率达36%。换言之与饱和仍有相当距离，即使现已充斥多家造车势力，再加入新的竞争者，市场仍有足够的空间让他们去争取及拼博。别忘记，还有海外这个大市场，足以容纳更多内地车企去开疆拓土。

But the sector is rapidly shaping up as a land governed by rules of the jungle, where only the strongest survive. One of the biggest failures so far has been WM Motor, a highflier whose case illustrates how today’s rising star can rapidly become tomorrow’s flame-out.

我们看，新能源车未来市场仍大有可为，但发展的过程中，同业竞争，淘弱留强是必然事情，当年威马汽车挟强势而来，最终败走麦城，可见企业的能力才是关键，如何去应对是重要一环。

There’s little doubt that Lei may have what it takes to succeed in the cutthroat space, given his past record. After making his name at software maker Kingsoft, Lei went on to build his smartphone empire from scratch into one of the world’s top smartphone brands. Despite criticism that xiaomi has yet to find a place in the most profitable high end of the smartphone market, it is still one of the top three global brands in terms of sales volume.

对于小米的雷军，从金山软件(3888.HK)的成功，到十年前一个门外汉，在杀戮战场的手机行业上由零开始，最终排除万难，成为前列手机品牌，于中国及海外市场占有重要席位，足见雷军及其团队有相当能耐。纵然有批评声音指小米在做高端手机一直未能成功，但小米目前仍是全球智能手机品牌中，按货量计稳居前三之列。就如初创或私募投资，很着重看领导团队，而小米创始人就有一个亮丽的履历去让人投下信心一票。

And while xiaomi’s recent NEV pivot may look like a whim to some, Lei actually began exploring the space as early as 10 years ago by investing in NEV startups like carmakers XPeng and Nio, as well as others like Segway-Ninebot, a maker of electric scooters. xiaomi has also invested in companies like Hesai and RoboSense, makers of LiDAR technology used in autonomous driving. Such investments have provided xiaomi with a considerable network of contacts that can provide experience and knowledge for the company’s own push into NEVs.

雷军并不是睡醒觉就突然想要造车，早在十年前已有部署，雷军当年已布局，在乘用车领域投资小鹏(9868.HK)和蔚来(9866.HK)，另外又投资九号公司、工匠派及石头科技等。期间，小米针对激光雷达企业，投资了禾赛科技(HSAI.HK)和速腾聚创(2498.HK)等重点品牌，透过投资去参与及观察，汲取了多年经验及知识，并建立相当的人脉关系。

Laying the groundwork

雷军人生最后一击

Such preemptive planning and investing are likely key factors that gave xiaomi access to the kinds of talent, technology and manufacturing capabilities it needed to bring its first NEV to market just 1,003 days after announcing its intent to enter the space.

就是雷军的早有筹谋，是以在公布造车后的1,003天里，小米才能短时间内解决人才任用、造车资质、及自建工厂等事宜。

xiaomi also shouldn’t have any funding problems for its NEV foray thanks to its huge established business, unlike startups that are continually challenged for cash. In the third quarter alone, the company reported operating cash flow of 13.3 billion yuan, 31.7 billion yuan in cash on hand, 51.4 billion yuan in short-term bank deposits, and just 44.8 billion yuan in long- and short-term borrowing.

财务上，雷军拓展电动车时，有小米这家上市公司作后盾，确实具有一定优势，我们看看小米第三季度的财务报表，光在第三季度，经营现金流有133亿元，手头现金316.5亿元，短期银行存款也有514亿元，而长短期借贷只是448亿元。虽然造车的投资动辄以百亿计算，但以现时小米的财力，加上雷军的人脉关系，赋以昔日亮丽的创业成绩，要在市场找融资相信并不成问题。难怪雷军在发布会上敢说出“不差钱”这三个字。

Lei and his big NEV ambitions look like a modern equivalent of Oda Nobunaga, a Japanese daimyō and leading figure of the Sengoku period in the 15th and 16th centuries, who strived to rule Japan by initiating wars. “This is the last major entrepreneurial venture of my life. I am willing to stake my reputation and accomplishments on the battlefield to go all out in developing xiaomi cars,” Lei said.

日本战国时代的大名织田信长，雄心勃勃统一天下，向天下布武，今天雷军公开叫阵，扬言最快在15年内打进前五大车厂之列。他豪言地说：“这是我人生最后一次重大的创业项目，我愿意押上人生所有的战绩和声誉，全力以赴去做小米汽车。”

Such words may be largely rhetoric, designed to draw attention to what could possibly be xiaomi’s biggest-ever gamble. But it’s a gamble that could stand good chances for success, given Lei Jun’s strong track record in software and smartphones, coupled with his strong ability and endless enthusiasm.

事实上，以雷军在软件及手机行业做出的骄人成绩，加上他的能力及一往无前的精神，大有机会在新能源车的市场上站稳一重要席位。

Mixue brews up renewed IPO bid, tempting investors with overseas expansion

【蜜雪冰城申港上市 冲出内地“平”攻海外】


If your bubble bursts the first time, then you try again. That’s the new signal coming from Mixue Group, China’s largest bubble tea chain by store count, which is attempting to list in Hong Kong after its previous IPO attempt in 2022 on China’s domestic A-share market fell flat.

如果第一次泡泡破了，那就再试一次。这是中国门店数量最多的茶饮连锁蜜雪冰城股份有限公司发出的新信号，2022年在中国国内A股市场上市失败后，公司正试图在香港上市。

Mixue is looking to raise $500 million to $1 billion in its IPO, according to a Reuters report last week, which cited a source with direct knowledge of the matter. A sale of 10% of its shares at the bottom of that range would value the company at a sizable $5 billion – nearly seven times the value of Nayuki (2150.HK), the only other Hong Kong-listed company from China’s bubble tea sector.

据路透社上周援引知情人士称，蜜雪冰城计划通过上市募集5亿至10亿美元(35.5至71亿元)资金。按照区间下限计算，出售10%的股份就能让该公司的估值达到50亿美元，市值超过中国首家在港上市的茶饮公司奈雪的茶(2150.HK) 近六倍。

As leader of China’s massive bubble tea market, Mixue's size and brand recognition should help it find strong investor appetite. The company is immensely popular among consumers, boasting tens of thousands of its compact, mostly takeout-only stores sporting its trademark snowman logo.

作为庞大的中国茶饮市场的领导者，蜜雪冰城的规模和品牌知名度应有助于它激起投资者的强烈兴趣。该公司在消费者中非常受欢迎，拥有数以万计的门店，其门店标识是一个雪人。

Mixue's rapid rise since its founding in 1997 owes largely to two strategic approaches. The first is its franchised business model, which enabled its rapid expansion by leveraging third-party operators. Of Mixue’s more than 36,000 stores at the end of last September, over 99.8% were run by franchisees, according to its prospectus filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange last week.

自1997年成立以来，蜜雪冰城的迅速崛起很大程度上归功于它的两大战略。第一个是特许经营模式，该模式使其能够利用第三方运营商实现快速扩张。据蜜雪冰城上周向香港交易所提交的上市文件显示，截至去年9月底，蜜雪冰城的逾3.6万家门店中，超过99.8%由特许经营商经营。

Mixue’s focus on franchising contrasts sharply with many of its rivals that focused on direct store ownership, though many are now experimenting with franchising as well. The company generates most of its revenue by supplying its huge store network with the materials and equipment they need to produce tea drinks and ice cream, unlike competitors that sell directly to consumers.

蜜雪冰城主打特许经营这一点，与很多专注于直营模式的竞争对手形成了鲜明对比，不过后者中的很多现在也开始尝试特许经营。该公司的大部分收入，是通过为门店网络供应原料和设备产生的，不同于直接面向消费者的竞争对手。

Its approach has enabled Mixue to rapidly expand while avoiding many of the fixed costs, such as rent, salaries and equipment purchases, associated with direct store ownership.

这种方式使蜜雪冰城得以迅速扩张，同时避免了直营模式涉及的很多固定成本，如租金、工资和设备采购。

The other key contributor to Mixue’s success has been its laser focus on the less exotic lower end of the market – aiming for the younger, more budget-conscious crowd in China’s smaller cities. The company’s tea products generally sell for less than 10 yuan, or about $1.40, according to the prospectus.

蜜雪冰城成功的另一个关键因素是它专注于不那么吸引人的低端市场，瞄准中国中小城市更年轻、更精打细算的人群。申请上市的文件显示，该公司的茶饮售价普遍低于10元。

Mixue's network is far larger than its closest competitors in China’s market for bubble teas costing less than 10 yuan. As of November, Tianlala and Yihetang – the nation’s second and third largest chains, respectively – operated approximately 5,676 and 4,735 stores within China, according to a December research note from China International Capital (CICC).

蜜雪冰城的门店网络规模远大于它在中国10元以下奶茶市场上的劲敌。根据中金公司12月的一份研究报告显示，截至11月，甜啦啦和益禾堂（分别为中国第二和第三大连锁）各自在中国经营着大约5,676家和4,735家门店。

Following its recent rapid growth, Mixue recorded 15.4 billion yuan ($2.17 billion) in revenues during the first nine months of last year, more than the 13.6 billion yuan for all of 2022 and 10 billion yuan for 2021. Net profit for the latest nine-month period was 2.4 billion yuan, with a relatively strong gross profit margin of about 30%, underscoring the benefits of Mixue's asset-light franchised business model.

经过近期的快速增长，蜜雪冰城去年前9个月的收入为154亿元，高于2022年全年的136亿元和2021年的100亿元。期内净利润24亿元，毛利率较为强劲，达到30%左右，突显出蜜雪冰城轻资产特许经营模式的优势。

Overseas expansion

海外扩张

As China's bubble tea market becomes increasingly saturated, Mixue is one of the country’s major chains looking to soak up new business by expanding overseas.

随着中国奶茶市场日益饱和，蜜雪冰城作为中国主要的茶饮连锁品牌，希望借助出海来提升收入。

According to data cited in the December CICC research report, growth of China's bubble tea market is projected to slow after several years of rapid expansion. The market is expected to increase 20% this year to 304.3 billion yuan, but that rate will decelerate to 16% by 2027, according to the CICC report. A wildcard could also be China’s slowing economy, which is prompting consumers to rein in their spending on less essential items.

根据中金公司12月份的研究报告中引用的数据，中国茶饮市场在经历了几年的快速扩张后，预计增长将放缓。该报告称，市场今年预计将增长20%，达到3,043亿元，但到2027年，增长将放缓至16%。中国的经济放缓也可能是一个不确定因素，这促使消费者控制在非必需品上的消费支出。

Competition in the market has also intensified substantially, with about 20 major brands currently operating in the domestic market, according to the CICC report.

根据中金公司的报告，市场竞争也大大加剧，国内市场目前约有20个主要品牌。

Mixue is facing competition from two directions. Many of its competitors at the higher end of the market have lowered their prices, increasingly encroaching on Mixue's traditional turf. A sort “tea war” broke out as early as 2022 when leading premium brand HeyTea dropped its prices by 3 yuan to 7 yuan, leading Nayuki to promise to roll out more products below 20 yuan. Such pressures will only increase with the growing consumer caution.

蜜雪冰城面临两个方向的竞争。高端市场的很多竞争对手已经降低了价格，日益蚕食蜜雪冰城的传统地盘。早在2022年，高端品牌喜茶降价3至7元，一场茶饮大战就此爆发，奈雪的茶承诺推出更多20元以下的产品。随着消费者越来越谨慎，这种价格下行压力只会越来越大。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Mixue is also facing pressure as more brands experiment with franchising to grow more quickly. HeyTea started opening franchised stores in November 2022 after previously insisting on operating all its stores directly to maintain its image and quality. Rivals Lelecha and Nayuki followed suit last year by saying they would look for similar partners.

随着越来越多的品牌尝试通过特许经营来实现更快的增长，蜜雪冰城也面临着压力。喜茶之前一直坚持直营以维护形象与品质，到了2022年11月，开始开设特许经营店。竞争对手乐乐茶和奈雪的茶去年也步其后尘，表示将寻找类似的合作伙伴。

Adoption of franchised stores has helped those rivals, many focused on the higher end of the market, expand into smaller cities that are Mixue's traditional stronghold.

采用特许经营门店有助于这些竞争对手（其中很多专注于高端市场）向中小城市扩张，而这些城市正是蜜雪冰城的传统据点。

Seeking relief from China’s overheated market, Mixue moved overseas by opening its first foreign store in Vietnam in 2018. Since then its overseas store count has grown to about 4,000 as of last September. Most of those stores are located in Southeast Asia, a region popular with many Chinese consumer brands due to its many similarities with the China market.

为了从中国过热的市场中解脱出来，蜜雪冰城于2018年在越南开设了第一家海外门店。截至去年9月，它的海外门店数量已增至约4,000家。其中大部分门店位于东南亚，该地区因与中国市场有许多相似之处而受到中国很多消费品牌的青睐。

According to third-party research cited in Mixue's prospectus, the market size of freshly-made tea drinks in Southeast Asia is expected to reach $49.4 billion by 2027, more than double the estimated $20.1 billion in 2023.

根据蜜雪冰城上市文件中引用的第三方研究，到2027年，东南亚现制茶饮市场的规模预计将达到494亿美元，是2023年预计的201亿美元的一倍多。

While overseas markets hold big potential, Mixue's global expansion will still face significant challenges. A key one will be localization to conform with each country’s customer preferences and operating environments.

虽然海外市场潜力巨大，但蜜雪冰城的全球扩张仍面临重大挑战。其中一个关键挑战是本地化，以符合每个国家的客户偏好和运营环境。

The company's success in China owes largely to its established national supply network to serve its thousands of domestic stores. Mixue currently supplies its overseas stores mostly using its China facilities, though its next logical step would be to build local facilities in key markets – a step that would require major new investment.

该公司在中国的成功很大程度上归功于其建立的全国供应网络，为其数以千计的国内门店提供服务。蜜雪冰城目前主要使用中国的设施为海外门店供货，不过其接下来合乎逻辑的步骤将是在关键市场建立当地设施，这一步将需要大量新投资。

The company is also eying less-familiar destinations, announcing plans last year to enter Australia. Such markets could offer new challenges since they share fewer cultural similarities with China. What’s more, coffee is far more popular in such Western markets than tea.

公司还在关注不太熟悉的目的地，去年宣布进军澳大利亚的计划。这些市场可能会带来新的挑战，因为它们与中国的文化相似性较少。此外，在这些西方市场，咖啡比茶更受欢迎。
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And as Mixue expands, it will quickly discover many of its local rivals are having similar thoughts. Among those, HeyTea and Nayuki have also been very active in Southeast Asia. Still, Mixue’s low pricing strategy may help it to find an audience abroad, especially as inflation leads global consumers to become more value-conscious.

随着蜜雪冰城的扩张，它很快就会发现很多本土竞争对手也有类似的想法。其中，喜茶和奈雪的茶在东南亚市场也非常活跃。尽管如此，蜜雪冰城的低价策略可能有助于它在海外找到受众，特别是在通货膨胀导致全球消费者变得更加注重价值的时候。