Johannes Sulistyo
Nope.
They might never take back the spot.
They will however, be eventually overtaken by South Korea. That’s for sure.
Japan for long has been dependent on foreign markets, particularly poorer Asian countries, and these poorer countries, no longer as poor as before, are now switching to Korean and Chinese cars.
In the second largest car market in the world (USA), Korean car brand is creeping up the market share pie ladder.
One thing they are betting on, but has no capacity to influence, drive, or implement this so-called “Hydrogen economy”.
Hydrogen is a volatile compound requiring even stricter safety standards than fossil fuel. It explodes, not combusts
It further restricts less developed nation as they need more sophisticated infrastructure to handle it
It is expensive to synthesize, as it used a lot of electricity for the electrolysis process, but still cleaner than burning gasoline though. But a bit worse than charging electric vehicle by burning peat coal
Mining hydrogen is still a new thing, and you may not like the places where it has been discovered

不可能。
他们永远无法夺回这个位置。
而且,他们最终还将被韩国超越。这是一定的。
日本长期以来一直依赖外国市场,尤其是较贫穷的亚洲国家,而这些较贫穷的国家现在开始转向韩国和中国汽车。在世界第二大汽车市场(美国),韩国汽车品牌的市场份额正在不断攀升。
有一件事是他们押注但无法影响、推动或实施,就是所谓的“氢经济”。氢是一种挥发性化合物,需要比化石燃料更严格的安全标准。氢会爆炸,不会燃烧。这进一步限制了欠发达国家,因为它们需要更复杂的基础设施来处理。它的合成成本很高,因为它在电解过程中使用了大量的电力,但仍然比烧油更清洁。但是比使用火电来充电的电动汽车要差一些。开采氢气仍然是一件新鲜事,你可能不喜欢发现它的地方

And then, we also have Japanese efficiency rigidity.
Japan has been cementing, deep rooting its ICE car manufacturing expertise into its nationwide supply chain. For example, the makers of wiper blades, wiper motors, wiper fittings, the stalks, the washer liquid reservoir, each of them contributes efficiency that makes Japanese car the best in the world in terms of manufacturing. Yes, EV cars still use wiper blades, they will survive, but not those making the transmission or ICE parts
It also made them very difficult to switch over to a new disruptive technologies that will render many of these suppliers out of business
Because in Japanese system, they buy stakes in these suppliers, turning them into a web of interconnected network of collaborative giant organisation called Keiretsu. You just cannot let them go bankrupt in your decision to switch over to some new technology. The maker of the head gasket seals, piston rings, spark plugs, etc are probably at some point, too big to fail for the group

然后,我们还有日本式的效率僵化。
日本一直在将其内燃发动机汽车制造专业知识巩固并深植到全国供应链中。例如,雨刷片、雨刷电机、雨刷配件、雨刷杆、清洗液储罐的制造商,它们每个都为使日本汽车在制造方面成为世界上最好的汽车做出了高效贡献。电动汽车仍然使用雨刷片,它们将继续存在,但那些制造变速箱或内燃机零件的制作商就不会存在了。这也使他们很难转向新的颠覆性技术,因为这将使这些供应商中的许多公司破产。
因为在日本的体制中,它们购买这些供应商的股份,将它们变成一个相互连接的巨大组织网络,称为企业集团。在决定转向某种新技术时,你不能让它们破产。某些时候,因为制造汽缸垫密封圈、活塞环、火花塞等的制造商对集团来说体量太大而无法破产。

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Japan is simply too late in the game
They tried to dictate the market with “hybrid”, which was cool in 1997, but this is already 2024, they are still pussyfooting with PHEV
The removal of hybrid from Japanese car maker is like deleting keyboard from Blackberry or “a phone being a phone” from the Symbian era Nokia
Like Blackberry and Nokia, they will lose the future main market, but will they accept being a niche player? We shall see. I know Subaru and Mazda are okay with it, but will the likes of Toyota, Honda, or Nissan be okay with it?
The world’s leader in battery technology is China, both CATL and BYD at the forefront of it. Third place is South Korean LG Chem, which is due to release its LFP battery for EV in 2025, so they are like 2-3 years behind China. Finally at distant fourth we have Japan. Toyota claimed they did a breakthrough with whatever battery - Sodium based or something that should give them some competitive edge. But the product is not yet there, and now a Toyota group Daihatsu is experiencing major issues

日本在这场比赛中来得太晚了
他们试图用“混合动力”来统治市场,这在1997年很酷,但现在已经是2024年了,他们还在对插混动力犹豫不决。日本汽车制造商取消混合动力就像从黑莓中删除键盘或从塞班时代诺基亚中删除“手机就是手机”一样。就像黑莓和诺基亚一样,他们将失去未来的主要市场,但他们会接受成为一个小众玩家吗?我们将拭目以待。我知道斯巴鲁和马自达对此无所谓,但丰田、本田或日产等公司会愿意吗?
全球电池技术的领导者是中国,宁德时代和比亚迪一直处于领先地位。第三名是韩国LG Chem,预计将于2025年发布其用于电动汽车的磷酸铁锂电池,所以他们差不多落后中国2-3年。最后,日本排名第四。丰田声称他们取得了钠离子电池技术突破,这应该会为他们带来一些竞争优势。但该产品尚未推出,而且丰田集团旗下的大发正在面临严重问题。

Japan focuses on a domestic market that is no longer giving them future-defining insights.
The country that invented QR code still pays homage to paper mills and Hanko stamp craftspeople and tend to underutilise their own innovation. In some respect, they are even behind Indonesia, a developing country. Shinkansen has just launched “e-yoyaku” (e-reservation) late last year in 2023. Japan is almost a decade behind some third world countries.
Japanese businesses caters for its domestic market (JDM) and considers them to be primary obxtive. Some corporations managed to separate their global or local operations with Japanese ones - these are the ones that mostly survived the bubble bursting in early 1990s
Japan, despite being US ally, and ups and downs relationship with South Korea in political stage, have a very disconnected real market sector. A Samsung phone has to be branded “Galaxy” in order to escape that typical xenophobia public scrutiny. In South Korea, you will be hard-pressed to find Japanese cars on streets, likewise in Japan - maybe the only place in the world where a Korean car is an extreme rarity. The only popular Korean thing in Japan is Hallyu-related, like Korean beauty products, K-Pop entertainment, Korean food, and Korean holiday. Likewise, it is typically Japanese entertainment (anime / manga) and food that goes in Korea

日本专注于国内市场,但该市场不再能为他们提供定义未来的洞察力。发明二维码的国家仍然尊崇造纸厂和刻章匠,低估自己的创新。在某些方面,他们甚至落后于发展中国家印度尼西亚。新干线去年2023年底才推出了“电子预订”服务。日本甚至比一些第三世界国家落后了近十年。
日本企业迎合国内市场并将其视为主要目标。一些公司成功地将其全球或本地业务与日本业务分开——这些公司在1990年初泡沫破裂后大多幸存下来。
日本尽管是美国的盟友,并且在政治舞台上与韩国的关系时好时坏,但其市场部门却与世隔绝。三星手机必须贴上“Galaxy”品牌,才能逃避典型的仇外心理公众审查。在韩国,你很难在街上看到日本汽车,同样在日本——也许是世界上唯一一个韩国汽车极为罕见的地方。在日本唯一流行的韩国事物是韩流相关的如韩国美容产品、韩国流行娱乐、韩国美食和韩国假期。同样,进入韩国的通常是日本娱乐(动漫/漫画)和食品

原创翻译:龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


As for Japan-dominated foreign marker, and proud owner of a Japanese car, I think it could be a time to bid good bye for their leadership in our market.
Complancency - has led them to release sub-par products by feature, by technology, and by quality. Their mantra seems to be “shitty products for shithole countries” delivered in tatemae politeness fashion
Japan underestimated how much the outside world is catching up. They has just been trampled by Korea, and soon about to be whooped by China. It could be made worse for them, if only American car maker were a bit more committed and serious
The Koreans taught us that at this pricing point, we could get an automated sunroof, integrated wireless Apple CarPlay & Android Auto, and whatnots - I paid sub-premium price for the same technology in my Mazda back in 2014, including walk-away auto door lock, only to find Honda has just recently feature it 8–9 years later
Their only advantages are slowly eaten up: the vast network of dealer presence, after sales service (which is to be honest, is just so-so), and resale value (which will be gone soon)
Sadly, Japan has no answer. Even at their absolute peak, Japan, unlike USA, refuses to admit that it is highly dependent on foreign market to generate their wealth and afford their highly-touted standards of living.

至于在日本主导并且以拥有一辆日本车为荣的外国市场,我认为现在可能是向他们在我们市场领导地位告别的时候了。
自满导致他们发布了功能、技术和质量方面都不尽如人意的产品。他们的座右铭似乎是以“为垃圾国家提供垃圾产品”为基调,再用所谓彬彬有礼的方式呈现出来。日本低估了外界正在迎头赶上的程度。他们刚刚被韩国蹂躏,很快将被中国打败。如果美国汽车制造商专注和认真点,情况可能会变得更糟。
韩国人教会了我们,在这个价位上上,我们可以得到自动天窗、集成的无线苹果CarPlay或安卓Auto等等 - 我在2014年为我的马自达支付了次顶配价格,其中包括离车自动落锁等技术,却发现8-9年后本田最近才推出这一功能。
他们唯一的优势:庞大的经销商网络、售后服务(说实话,一般般)、以及保值率(这个优势也将很快消失),现在也正在慢慢被蚕食。
可悲的是,日本没有答案。即使在绝对巅峰时期,日本也与美国不同,拒绝承认它高度依赖外国市场来创造财富,并负担其标榜的高水平生活。

It was still true when NTT DoCoMo was the world’s most sophisticated phone and network system back in early 2000s. Mobile internet was a Japanese thing and we were all like a decade behind Japan. Sure the financial market is in shambles, but Japan was easily living in the future. When iPhone, Android system came out in 2007, we never imagined how it wiped out all Japanese phone makers today like Kyocera - even Sony Ericsson.
In 2019, it pains me to say that a decent holiday in Tokyo is far more affordable than the ones in Bali or Jakarta, let alone Singapore - affluent Indonesian lifestyle is way too overpriced. It is far cheaper to eat Ippudo ramen right in Ginza than in its Pacific Place Mall, Jakarta branch. A bowl of Akamaru Special ramen is easily ¥1.081 (IDR 116.000) before tax here. It is just ¥1.030, even after recent price increase for Ginza.
They tried to keep Japan the same for the pensioners, so they don’t have to readjust the values. But the world does not wait for them. Besides denial, typical racism, and refusal to change. It is extremely hard to see Japan coming back to claim the lead in foreseeable future.

早在2000年初,NTT DoCoMo还是世界上最先进的电话和网络系统时,情况仍然如此。移动互联网是日本的东西,我们都落后日本十年。当然,金融市场一片混乱,但日本轻松地生活在未来。当2007年iPhone、Android系统问世时,我们从未想象它将如何摧毁今天的所有日本手机制造商,如京瓷,甚至是索尼爱立信。
在2019年,我不得不承认,在东京度过一个不错的假期远比在巴厘岛或雅加达要便宜很多,更不用说新加坡了。印尼富裕的生活方式实在是定价过高。在银座吃一碗一风堂特色拉面,即便在最近一次价格上涨后,也只需1,030日元,而在雅加达的太古广场分店则是税前1,081日元(IDR 116,000)。
他们试图让日本的养老金领取者保持不变,这样他们就不必重新调整价值观。但世界不会等待他们。除了否认、典型的种族主义和拒绝改变。在可预见的未来,日本很难重新夺回领先地位。