QA问答：乌克兰实际已经输掉了与俄罗斯的战争吗？ AS回答：无论战争怎么结束，乌克兰都输了
Has Ukraine lost the war with Russia?
译文简介
QA问答：乌克兰实际已经输掉了与俄罗斯的战争吗？ AS回答：无论战争怎么结束，乌克兰都输了
正文翻译
Aya Shawn
National University of Singapore
No matter what the outcome of this war is, how it ends
Ukraine as a country, Ukrainians as a race.They have already lost.
不管这场战争的结果如何，如何结束
乌克兰作为一个国家，乌克兰人作为一个种族，已经彻底失败了。
1. The decline of racial genes
A large number of young men died in the war, and a large number of young women were lost to Europe and the United States.
This makes it difficult for paternally inherited genes to be passed on to the next generation.
This means that Ukraine, as an independent nation, is biologically dying.
1、种族基因的衰落
大量年轻男性在战争中死亡，大量年轻女性流失到欧美。
这使得父系遗传的基因很难遗传给下一代。
这意味着乌克兰作为一个独立国家或者民族，在生物学上正在走向死亡。
A large number of young men died in the war, and a large number of young women were lost to Europe and the United States.
This makes it difficult for paternally inherited genes to be passed on to the next generation.
This means that Ukraine, as an independent nation, is biologically dying.
1、种族基因的衰落
大量年轻男性在战争中死亡，大量年轻女性流失到欧美。
这使得父系遗传的基因很难遗传给下一代。
这意味着乌克兰作为一个独立国家或者民族，在生物学上正在走向死亡。
2. Huge debt makes it difficult for the country to recover
Ukraine's GDP will fall by 30.4% in 2022, and tax revenue will fall by 14.4% year-on-year. back to 2007 levels.
(Ukraine loses its ability to create wealth on its own)
Ukraine's defense expenditure will increase from US$3.49 billion in 2021 to US$31.25 billion in 2022, and its proportion in national budget expenditure will increase from 8.56% to 42.24%. (All foreign aid wealth was burned by the war)
Foreign aid is not a free gift, a large part of it is a loan. In 2023, Ukraine should repay its foreign debt of approximately US$17.9 billion, and in 2024, Ukraine should repay its national debt of US$17.8 billion. Even if the current debt remains unchanged, in the next few years, calculated based on the current debt balance, Ukraine's average annual debt repayment in the next five years will reach about 12 billion US dollars.
As of now, Ukraine’s debt balance has exceeded 100 billion U.S. dollars. The Ukrainian Finance Minister said that the debt-to-GDP ratio by the end of 2023 may exceed 100% under adverse circumstances.
2.巨额债务使国家难以复苏
2022年乌克兰GDP下降30.4%，税收同比下降14.4%。回到2007年的水平。
（这组数据意味着乌克兰失去了自己创造财富的能力）
乌克兰国防开支从2021年的34.9亿美元增加到2022年的312.5亿美元，占国家预算支出的比重从8.56%增加到42.24%。
（这组数据意味着所有的外来援助财富都被战争消耗了）
外援不是无偿的礼物，很大一部分是贷款。2023年，乌克兰应偿还约179亿美元的外债，2024年，乌克兰应偿还约178亿美元的国债。即使当前债务保持不变，未来几年，按照当前债务余额计算，乌克兰未来五年平均每年偿还债务将达到120亿美元左右。
截至目前，乌克兰债务余额已超过1000亿美元。乌克兰财政部长表示，在最糟糕的情况下，到2023年底债务占GDP的比例可能超过100%。
Ukraine's GDP will fall by 30.4% in 2022, and tax revenue will fall by 14.4% year-on-year. back to 2007 levels.
(Ukraine loses its ability to create wealth on its own)
Ukraine's defense expenditure will increase from US$3.49 billion in 2021 to US$31.25 billion in 2022, and its proportion in national budget expenditure will increase from 8.56% to 42.24%. (All foreign aid wealth was burned by the war)
Foreign aid is not a free gift, a large part of it is a loan. In 2023, Ukraine should repay its foreign debt of approximately US$17.9 billion, and in 2024, Ukraine should repay its national debt of US$17.8 billion. Even if the current debt remains unchanged, in the next few years, calculated based on the current debt balance, Ukraine's average annual debt repayment in the next five years will reach about 12 billion US dollars.
As of now, Ukraine’s debt balance has exceeded 100 billion U.S. dollars. The Ukrainian Finance Minister said that the debt-to-GDP ratio by the end of 2023 may exceed 100% under adverse circumstances.
2.巨额债务使国家难以复苏
2022年乌克兰GDP下降30.4%，税收同比下降14.4%。回到2007年的水平。
（这组数据意味着乌克兰失去了自己创造财富的能力）
乌克兰国防开支从2021年的34.9亿美元增加到2022年的312.5亿美元，占国家预算支出的比重从8.56%增加到42.24%。
（这组数据意味着所有的外来援助财富都被战争消耗了）
外援不是无偿的礼物，很大一部分是贷款。2023年，乌克兰应偿还约179亿美元的外债，2024年，乌克兰应偿还约178亿美元的国债。即使当前债务保持不变，未来几年，按照当前债务余额计算，乌克兰未来五年平均每年偿还债务将达到120亿美元左右。
截至目前，乌克兰债务余额已超过1000亿美元。乌克兰财政部长表示，在最糟糕的情况下，到2023年底债务占GDP的比例可能超过100%。
3. Loss of strategic resources and enterprises
When there is debt, there is a mortgage, and when there is reconstruction, there is a need for investment. After the armistice, foreign capital will pour into Ukraine in large quantities, taking advantage of Ukraine's debt crisis and fiscal crisis to control Ukraine's mineral resources and major enterprises at extremely low prices.
Ukraine's ability to create wealth will be in the hands of American and European capital, and the Ukrainian government will be unable to mobilize too many resources to build the country.
3、战略资源和企业的流失
有债务就有抵押，有重建就需要投资。停战后，外资将大量涌入乌克兰，利用乌克兰债务危机和财政危机，以极低的价格控制乌克兰的矿产资源和各大企业。
乌克兰创造财富的能力将掌握在美国和欧洲资本手中，乌克兰政府将无法调动太多资源来建设国家。
When there is debt, there is a mortgage, and when there is reconstruction, there is a need for investment. After the armistice, foreign capital will pour into Ukraine in large quantities, taking advantage of Ukraine's debt crisis and fiscal crisis to control Ukraine's mineral resources and major enterprises at extremely low prices.
Ukraine's ability to create wealth will be in the hands of American and European capital, and the Ukrainian government will be unable to mobilize too many resources to build the country.
3、战略资源和企业的流失
有债务就有抵押，有重建就需要投资。停战后，外资将大量涌入乌克兰，利用乌克兰债务危机和财政危机，以极低的价格控制乌克兰的矿产资源和各大企业。
乌克兰创造财富的能力将掌握在美国和欧洲资本手中，乌克兰政府将无法调动太多资源来建设国家。
4. The government loses its independence
Ukraine's post-war economy will be completely dependent on support and assistance from European and American countries. The Ukrainian government is unable to make its own choices and has completely become a vassal of other countries.
This situation is expected to continue for decades.
4.政府失去独立性
乌克兰战后经济将完全依赖欧美国家的支持和援助。乌克兰政府无法做出自己的选择，彻底沦为别国的附庸。
这种情况预计将持续数十年。
Ukraine's post-war economy will be completely dependent on support and assistance from European and American countries. The Ukrainian government is unable to make its own choices and has completely become a vassal of other countries.
This situation is expected to continue for decades.
4.政府失去独立性
乌克兰战后经济将完全依赖欧美国家的支持和援助。乌克兰政府无法做出自己的选择，彻底沦为别国的附庸。
这种情况预计将持续数十年。
5. Population loss
In this relatively wealthy region of Europe, a poor and miserable Ukraine cannot retain young people.
In the next few decades, young Ukrainians will use all possible means to leave Ukraine and live in Europe and the United States.
A country that has lost its young people has also lost the power to recover and grow.
5、人口流失
在欧洲这个相对富裕的地区，贫穷悲惨的乌克兰留不住年轻人。
未来几十年，乌克兰年轻人将利用一切可能的手段离开乌克兰，前往欧洲和美国生活。
一个国家失去了年轻人，也就失去了复苏和发展的力量。
In this relatively wealthy region of Europe, a poor and miserable Ukraine cannot retain young people.
In the next few decades, young Ukrainians will use all possible means to leave Ukraine and live in Europe and the United States.
A country that has lost its young people has also lost the power to recover and grow.
5、人口流失
在欧洲这个相对富裕的地区，贫穷悲惨的乌克兰留不住年轻人。
未来几十年，乌克兰年轻人将利用一切可能的手段离开乌克兰，前往欧洲和美国生活。
一个国家失去了年轻人，也就失去了复苏和发展的力量。
6.After making huge sacrifices, it is still difficult to join the EU
A very bad estimate is that Ukraine will be the poorest and most backward place in Europe in the next 50 years. The war is not over yet and the country has completely failed.
Many Ukrainians want Ukraine to join the European unx. After all, Ukraine has become an EU candidate country.
But I think this is fanciful. The EU cannot accept a beggar and then use the wealth of all countries to help him.
You must know that it has been 20 years since Turkey became an EU candidate country, but it is still blocked for various reasons.
Always remember: the EU is a club of rich countries, not a soup kitchen for poor countries.
6.付出巨大牺牲后，加入欧盟依然困难重重
一个非常糟糕的估计是，未来50年乌克兰将成为欧洲最贫穷、最落后的地方。战争还没有结束，这个国家已经彻底失败了。
许多乌克兰人希望乌克兰加入欧盟（从而变得富裕）。毕竟乌克兰已经成为欧盟候选国。
但我认为这是异想天开。欧盟不会接受一个乞丐，然后动用各国的财富来帮助他。
要知道，土耳其成为欧盟候选国已经20年了，却依然因为种种原因受阻。
永远记住：欧盟是富裕国家的俱乐部，而不是贫穷国家的救济处。
A very bad estimate is that Ukraine will be the poorest and most backward place in Europe in the next 50 years. The war is not over yet and the country has completely failed.
Many Ukrainians want Ukraine to join the European unx. After all, Ukraine has become an EU candidate country.
But I think this is fanciful. The EU cannot accept a beggar and then use the wealth of all countries to help him.
You must know that it has been 20 years since Turkey became an EU candidate country, but it is still blocked for various reasons.
Always remember: the EU is a club of rich countries, not a soup kitchen for poor countries.
6.付出巨大牺牲后，加入欧盟依然困难重重
一个非常糟糕的估计是，未来50年乌克兰将成为欧洲最贫穷、最落后的地方。战争还没有结束，这个国家已经彻底失败了。
许多乌克兰人希望乌克兰加入欧盟（从而变得富裕）。毕竟乌克兰已经成为欧盟候选国。
但我认为这是异想天开。欧盟不会接受一个乞丐，然后动用各国的财富来帮助他。
要知道，土耳其成为欧盟候选国已经20年了，却依然因为种种原因受阻。
永远记住：欧盟是富裕国家的俱乐部，而不是贫穷国家的救济处。
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· Oct 20
“Always remember: the EU is a club of rich countries, not a soup kitchen for poor countries.”
I think this rule may have been watered down a little to encourage NATO membership on Russia borders.
“永远记住：欧盟是富裕国家的俱乐部，而不是贫穷国家的救济处。”
我认为这条规则可能已经被淡化了一些，以鼓励在俄罗斯边境的国家加入北约。
· Oct 20
And that exception to the rules is bringing about a chasm between the rich North and the relatively less richer South within the EU…
这种规则的例外正在欧盟内部富裕的北方和相对不富裕的南方之间造成鸿沟……
· Oct 21
I think a long drawn out war requiring solidarity but creating uneven outcomes for the NATO countries was another unanticipated of the US plan.
If it was thought about I would think that the USA anticipated a short sharp conflict using overwhelming force.
This conflict has caught the USA with its pants down and now they have a second front in Israel.
Karma is a bitch
我认为一场旷日持久的战争需要团结，但却给北约国家带来了不平衡的结果，这是美国计划外的情况。
如果考虑一下，我原来认为美国会使用压倒性的武力快速干翻俄罗斯。
结果这场巴以冲突让美国措手不及，现在他们在以色列有了第二条战线。
出来混迟早要还的
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
· Oct 21
East vs west, not north vs south.
The north vs south “chasm” is more political. The countries along the northern Mediterranean coast don't really care nor have much historic anymosity against Russia. Mostly because they have been beyond any Russian (or Soviet) army's reach.
But the wealth gap is between west vs east. The darker the blue, the higher the GDP per capita.
东方与西方，而不是北方与南方。
南北“鸿沟”更具政治性。地中海北部沿岸国家并不真正关心俄罗斯，也没有太多历史上对俄罗斯的敌意。主要是因为它们超出了任何俄罗斯（或苏联）军队的能力范围。
但贫富差距存在于西方和东方之间。蓝色越深，人均GDP越高。
引用维基百科，欧洲GDP分布，链接省略
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
· Oct 22
You gave some excellent points. Ukraine has indeed lost the war, and it is now a matter of time for the country, its government and its army, to simply collapse.
The events of the last 10 days show that there are moving parts in the rest of the world that will accelerate this collapse - the preoccupation with another conflict; the impending likely doom of US and EU economies both during the upcoming winter and due to their foolish monetary policies (the derivatives market is giving warning signals that sound much louder than 2007/2008). If someone thinks that those other moving parts will impact Russia or China, think again - sanctions have pretty much insulated Russia financially, its economy is set for growth this year just shy of 3% and they have a labor shortage.
给出了一些很专业的观点。乌克兰确实输掉了这场战争，现在这个国家、它的政府和它的军队距离崩溃只是时间问题。
过去10天发生的事件表明，世界其他地区的一些变化将加速这场崩溃——那就是对另一场巴以冲突的关注；美国和欧盟经济在即将进入寒冬，由于其愚蠢的货币政策而可能面临的厄运（金融衍生品市场发出的警告信号听起来比2007/2008年要响亮得多）。如果有人认为这些其他变动因素也会影响俄罗斯或中国，那就错了——俄罗斯对制裁几乎免疫了，其今年的经济增长预计将略低于 3%，甚至还存在劳动力短缺。
Look for Russia to leverage this into one or several Protectorates to which they can invite other interested parties to co-lead under Russian conditions. Read: Hungary, Poland and Romania might get some mighty interesting grapes dangling before their mouths; NATO in disarray.
这次崩溃也许能使乌克兰摆脱不可能的债务负担——他们唯一真正的选择是让俄罗斯分分割并接管这个国家，并告诉西方将所有的债务都去见鬼吧。
期待俄罗斯利用这一点建立一个或多个保护国，并邀请其他感兴趣的势力在俄罗斯的影响下共同领导。匈牙利、波兰和罗马尼亚可能会得到一些甜头；而北约陷入混乱。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
欧盟国家将被迫收养数百万永久逃亡的乌克兰人——这是一个可怕的负担——这将进一步削弱欧盟外交政策的稳定性。俄罗斯将能够按照自己的节奏逐步在那些历史上属于俄罗斯的地区进行重建，并且由于人民的选择而保留这些地区 - 他们现在在马里乌波尔正在这样做，他们已经彻底的转变过去9年里克里米亚的局势。
· Oct 20
Good read. Thank you.
很好的阅读，谢谢你
James Lockland
· Oct 20
Yea this is mostly not right. If it’s a problem for Ukraine it will be doubly so for Russia.
Something to remember is the Baltic states and Poland joined NATO and the EU in a shitty state as well and all have grown much more economically stable and have grown in GDP. Their quality of life has improved dramatically as well. If Ukraine gets the win and joins EU and NATO it will end up better off.
Even if they are worse off economically they are better off because it’s better to be a member of a Voting organization like the EU than a slave to Russia.
Slava Ukraini
是的，这大多是不对的。如果这对乌克兰来说是一个问题，那么对俄罗斯来说更是一个问题。
需要记住的是，波罗的海国家和波兰在加入北约和欧盟时也处于糟糕的状态，但所有国家的经济都变得更加稳定，国内生产总值也有所增长。他们的生活质量也显着提高。如果乌克兰获胜并加入欧盟和北约，结果将会更好。
即使他们的经济状况较差，也没啥，因为成为像欧盟这成员比成为俄罗斯的奴隶更好。
荣耀属于乌克兰
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
· Oct 22
You are a pro-Ukrainian supporter so you see everything positively, but looking at it impartially the answer is closer to reality than your point of view.
您是亲乌克兰的支持者，所以您对一切都持积极态度，但公平的说，答主的答案比您的观点更接近现实。
· Oct 20
The poor Ukrainian people elected an incompetent president who did not hesitate to drag the country into the vortex of confrontation between the United States and Russia, and eventually became a victim of the confrontation between the two major powers! The first person responsible for a country's involvement in war is the president of the country! It is your mission to make people live happily and away from war!
可怜的乌克兰人民选出了一位无能的总统，他毫不犹豫地将国家拖入美俄对抗的漩涡，最终成为两个大国对抗的牺牲品！一个国家卷入战争的第一责任人是国家总统！让人们幸福生活，远离战争是你的使命！