越南能否在本世纪内在经济上赶上东亚国家？
Will Vietnam economically catch up to East Asian countries within this century?
译文简介
疯狂的是我们以前担心人口过剩，现在我们担心低生育率
正文翻译
Will Vietnam economically catch up to East Asian countries within this century?
越南能否在本世纪内在经济上赶上东亚国家？
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Crazy how we used to worry about overpopulation,now we are worried about low fertility rate
疯狂的是我们以前担心人口过剩，现在我们担心低生育率
I think some expert before has already told us of a population shrink with development, but everyone was so occupied with over-population so we did not take them that seriously back then
我想以前有专家已经告诉我们人口随着发展而减少，但是大家都专注于人口过剩，所以我们当时并没有认真对待他们
Ehh, underpopulation is not a problem under current global conditions if the country is willing to open the floodgates for immigration. Immigration disproportionately enlarges the tax base with relatively little increased burdens on the social assistance system as foreigners do not enjoy the same entitlements as citizens, effectively making tax contributions of increased population from immigrations demographic free money unlike citizens demographic. In the status quo, most economic growth generated by population growth of citizens demographic is usually a Ponzi scheme as the economic benefit is devoured by current generation and fiscally unsustainable social systems is thrown on the posterity.
呃，如果国家愿意打开移民闸门的话，在当前的全球条件下，人口不足不是问题。移民可以成比例扩大税基，而对社会救助体系的负担相对较小，因为外国人不享有与公民相同的权利，这实际上使得移民人口增加所带来的税收贡献成为与公民人口不同的免费资金。在现状下，大多数由公民人口增长带来的经济增长通常是庞氏骗局，因为经济利益被当代人吞噬，因为经济利益被当代人吞噬，而财政上不可持续的社会制度却被抛给了后代。
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Immigrations don't fix the low fertility problem. As researches shown, after 3 generations, they will adjusted to the same low fertility as the country they live in. Can watch the video called "why Korea is dying out" by Kurzgesagt. Immigration is just a bandaid trying to stop a big stream of water leaking out, not really solve the problem.
移民并不能解决生育率低的问题。研究表明，三代人之后，他们将适应与他们所居住的国家相同的低生育率。可以观看Kurzgesagt的名为“为什么韩国正在消亡”的视频。移民只是试图阻止大量水流渗出的创可贴，并不能真正解决问题。
It’s not underpopulated is the problem, it’s the unbalanced age structure, you need a balanced number of young and old people, like China for example, they are having a crisis of too many old people and too few young people. Which means a huge number of pension while too little workers to generate money to provide the pension.
问题不是人口不足，而是年龄结构不平衡，你需要一个平衡的老少人口数量，比如中国，他们正面临着老人太多而年轻人太少的危机。这意味着需要大量的养老金，但却没有足够的劳动力来创造资金来提供养老金。
It might happen if they invest more in education, automation and provide more open immigration policies to balance out the brain drain, drive innovation and investments.
They'll also need to eradicate corruption at all levels and ensure at the very least, they can complete infrastructure projects on time without any kerfuffle involving land clearance.
如果他们在教育、自动化方面投入更多，并提供更开放的移民政策，以平衡人才流失、推动创新和投资，就有可能实现这一目标。
他们还需要根除各个层面的腐败现象，并至少确保能够按时完成基础设施项目，而不会出现涉及土地清理的任何麻烦。
I see that brain drain is a serious issue in this country that isn't addressed. Generally speaking, the best vietnamese in every sector leave the country for better opportunities, and I can't blame them. But remittance of foreign salaries only contributes to inflation.
我认为人才流失是这个国家没有解决的一个严重问题。一般来说，各个领域最优秀的越南人都会离开这个国家寻找更好的机会，我不能责怪他们。但是，国外工资的汇款只会助长通货膨胀。
It's like India....Vietnamese likes to go US or Canada
就像印度......越南人喜欢去美国或加拿大
Canada isn't the best place right now. There is HUGE competition all across industries and people are staying jobless. A good job is far-fetched.
加拿大现在不是最好的目的地。各行各业的竞争都非常激烈，人们都在失业。好工作遥不可及。
Yeah the biggest barrier for me is the corruption. I feel like it tarnishes Vietnam’s image to the outside world and stymies true innovation and growth. It makes the people more worried about bribing government officials than growing their business or innovating new ideas. Otherwise I would move to Vietnam and invest there in a heartbeat.
对我来说，最大的障碍就是腐败。我觉得这有损越南在外界心目中的形象，阻碍了真正的创新和发展。它让人们更担心要怎么去贿赂政府官员，而不是发展业务或创新想法。否则，我会立刻搬到越南投资。
Think of it this way, at a 7% grow rate it will take 10 years for the economy to double.
Right now Vietnam GDP per capita is 1/3rd that of Thailand, 1/8th that of Taiwan.
So Vietnam would need to grow a lot before reaching the economic size of other East Asian countries.
这么想吧，以 7% 的增长率计算，经济翻一番需要 10 年的时间。
现在越南的人均 GDP 是泰国的 1/3，台湾（地区）的 1/8。
因此，越南需要大幅增长才能达到其他东亚国家的经济规模。
Yeah only way to catch up is to pull a China with a decade or more of high double digit growth then like 2-3 decades of completely uninterrupted high single digit growth. Don’t see Vietnam doing that since most major industries like tech, manufacturing, auto, electronics, chemicals etc are already dominated by well entrenched players and they don’t have metals and oils to pull a Saudi, Brazil or Australia so they would need to invent whole new industries or capture existing.
是的，追赶的唯一方法就是像中国那样保持十年或更长的两位数高增长，然后再保持到三十年完全不间断的个位数高增长。越南做不到这一点，因为大多数主要产业，如科技、制造、汽车、电子、化工等，都已被根深蒂固的企业所垄断，而且他们没有金属和石油，无法像沙特、巴西或澳大利亚那样发展，因此他们需要发明全新的产业或抓住现有的产业。
Agreed.
I mean Vietnam could, but based on the current business enviroment, I don't see it happening.
It could reach the kind of wealth of Thailand (3x GDP per capita Vietnam is now). Which isn't bad at all, it's a middle income country.
同意。
我觉得越南可以，但根据目前的商业环境，我不认为越南能做到这一点。
越南可以达到泰国那样的财富水平（人均 GDP 是越南现在的 3 倍）。这一点也不坏，因为它是一个中等收入国家。
actually there are alway new areas becoming invented. just see AI for reference. this was not a big area 3 year ago and now it is booming.
just be patient and we will capture future industry especially because young generation here grow up on internet so are more connected about oversea markets too.
其实，新的领域总是在不断涌现。作为参考，看看AI。三年前，这还不是一个大领域，而现在它正在蓬勃发展。
只要有耐心，我们就能抓住未来的产业，特别是因为这里的年轻一代都是在互联网上长大的，所以他们也更了解海外市场。
just to make a counterpoint, every new innovating field, displace more jobs than creating new one. Look at farming, human labour decreases. A.I will be the nail in the coffin for many jobs to come, General A.I will be the new age low-skill job killer, and we know not everyone can just be a skilled programmer.
反过来说，每一个新的创新领域都会取代更多的工作岗位，而不是创造新的工作岗位。看看农业，人类劳动力在减少。人工智能将成为新时代低技术工作的杀手，我们知道，不是每个人都能成为熟练的程序员。
Vietnam has a lot of cash that’s not calculated in the gdp. Its gdp should catch up with Thailand now, let alone 1/3. it’s export triples Thailands.
越南拥有大量未计入国民生产总值的现金。它的 GDP 现在应该赶上泰国了，更不用说是泰国的 1/3。它的出口是泰国的三倍。
The problem is that when GDP grows further, the growth rate tends to slow down. There is no guarantee that Vietnam can maintain 7% in the next 10 years.
When the GDP per capital of Korea, China and Japan were the same as Vietnam nowadays, their GDP growth rate were around 10-15%, not 7%. Their growth rate of Korea and Japan slowed down, but they still grew fast enough to become developed country.
I am afraid that Vietnam economy will slow down further in the next 20 years and stuck in the middle income trap.
问题是，当 GDP 进一步增长时，增长率往往会放缓。越南无法保证在未来 10 年内保持 7%的增长率。
当韩国、中国和日本的人均 GDP 与现在的越南相同时，它们的 GDP 增长率约为 10-15%，而不是 7%。虽然韩国和日本的增长速度有所放缓，但它们的增长速度仍然足够快，足以成为发达国家。
我担心越南经济在未来 20 年会进一步放缓，陷入中等收入陷阱。
It's very possible that Vietnam could catch up within the century, the world economy 50 years from now will so vastly different it's hard to make predictions.
A *huge* factor in this is wide spread access to refrigeration and air conditioning. Most of east Asia's manufacturing zones are bearable without AC for most of the year. The compounding effect of this alone over the last 100 years has a huge impact, I'm not saying it's the only thing, but there are many small factors like that, which have held Vietnams growth back.
Additionally Vietnam is in a tough place geo-politically. If they start getting too close to the west, they will be in virtually the exact same position Ukraine is in now. North Korea lets South Korea sign treaties with the west, without China worrying about land invasions. The best path forward for Vietnam is to maintain neutrality, but with that comes reduced trade agreements.
Vietnam needs to solve, or at least hide, it's widespread corruption issues, and massively reform it's education system if it wants to be competitive in the world stage. The younger generation, who is growing up online, will completely change this country over the next 20-30 years, we will see what they do with it.
越南很有可能在本世纪内迎头赶上，但 50 年后的世界经济将大不相同，很难预测。
其中一个“很大”的因素是制冷和空调的普及。东亚的大部分制造区一年中的大部分时间没有空调也是可以忍受的。仅这一点在过去100年的复合效应就产生了巨大的影响，我并不是说这是唯一的因素，但有许多类似的小因素阻碍了越南的增长。
此外，越南在地缘政治上处境艰难。如果他们开始与西方走得太近，他们的处境就会与乌克兰现在的处境一模一样。朝鲜允许韩国与西方签署条约，而中国无需担心陆地入侵。对越南来说，最好的前进道路是保持中立，但随之而来的是贸易协定的减少。
越南要想在世界舞台上具有竞争力，就必须解决或至少掩盖普遍存在的腐败问题，并对教育系统进行大刀阔斧的改革。在网络上成长起来的年轻一代将在未来 20-30 年内彻底改变这个国家，我们将拭目以待。
Vietnam needs to have strong government, highly educated labour force, young labour force. Equal women participation, open economy, low corruption, strong FDI, lower pollution, lower corruption, more manufacturing capacity, also take care of the people who are risking livelihood in Mekong delta. In 20 yes water level will go down but sea level will increase . So, there are lot of domestic issues. If they continue to do all these perfectly then economy will do better. Don't forget to have a strong army to protect the growing economy n labour force. So, it's not just numbers. That every year u will get 7% growth. What china did in last 30 years is an hurculean task. If Vietnam could do that. Then they might reach near modern day Japan. Else no.
越南需要有强有力的政府、受过高等教育的劳动力、年轻的劳动力。妇女平等参与劳动、开放经济、强劲的外国直接投资、更低的污染、更低的腐败、更高的制造能力，同时还要照顾那些在湄公河三角洲冒着生命危险维持生计的人们。 20 年后，水位会下降，但海平面会上升。所以，国内的问题还是很多的。如果他们继续完美地完成所有这些工作，那么经济将会表现得更好。不要忘记要有一支强大的军队来保护不断增长的经济和劳动力。所以，这不仅仅是数字游戏。每年你至少要有 7% 的增长。中国在过去 30 年所做的是一项艰巨的任务。如果越南也能做到这一点。那么他们可能会接近现代的日本。否则就不行。
The only way for Vietnam continue growing is replacing the corrupted government. They cant finish a metro line, or build a proper a highway.
越南继续发展的唯一途径是更换腐败的政府。他们无法完成一条地铁线路，也无法建造一条像样的高速公路。
Vietnam needs to have world renowned companies.
All these large economies have companies that rules the world
Usa obviously has tech giants, semicon, car. Pharma. Germany has vw group, sap etc. Korea has Samsung. Japan has Toyota, Suzuki. Vietnam needs to have some kind of unicorn.
越南需要世界知名的公司。
所有这些大型经济体都有统治世界的公司。
美国显然拥有很多科技、半导体、汽车、制药巨头。德国有大众集团、SAP 等。韩国有三星。日本有丰田、铃木。越南需要一些独角兽企业。
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Vingroup is like the Samsung....or Vinamilk
Vingroup 就像三星...或 Vinamilk
If anything Vingroup is the thing that drags this whole country down
硬要说的话，Vingroup 就是拖累整个国家的因素
My answer to this question varies on my mood (optimist or pessimist). One thing I can say having worked here for 7 years in industry is that every decade that passes, maintaining the same growth rate is going to get harder and harder, meaning smarter and smarter governance will be needed to keep pace. Right now by en large, Vietnam is a low tech manufacturing and assembly hub, rice basket and IT off shoring. To achieve the goals it needs to achieve becoming a true knowledge based economy. This means problem solving and innovation, rather than operating factories. It's going to be hard. I see lots of younger folks with potential, but the ones in charge : will they adapt the way they run businesses, policies? Or will they be set in their way "as it has been done before". There is a real palpable tension there I've seen first hand
我对这个问题的回答因我的心情而异（乐观或悲观）。我在这里从事了 7 年的制造业工作，我可以明确的一点是，每过十年，保持同样的增长速度就会变得越来越难，这意味着需要越来越聪明的管理才能跟上步伐。目前，越南在很大程度上是一个低技术制造业和装配中心、米篮子和信息技术离岸外包中心。为了实现目标，越南需要成为一个真正的知识型经济体。这意味着解决问题和创新，而不是经营工厂。这将会很困难。我看到了很多有潜力的年轻人，但问题在于掌权者：他们会调整管理方式和政策吗？还是会“墨守成规”？我在这里亲眼目睹了一种紧张的气氛。
Nope. My impression is that it's ALREADY declining. Those who got some money in the last 1-2decades didn't invest their money in productive ventures: instead, they did land/real estate/ precious metals speculation or (wink wink) 'sent their kids overseas'. That's why although VN's gdp is growing nothing's actually changing on the ground.
不能。我的印象是，它已经在下降了。那些在过去一二十年中赚到钱的人并没有把钱投资到生产性企业中：相反，他们进行土地/房地产/贵金属投机，或者（你懂的）“把孩子送到国外”。这就是为什么尽管越南的国内生产总值在增长，但实际情况却没有任何变化的原因。
My opinion is Vietnam already peaked, the population boom gave a huge boost to the economy but much of it wasted on corruption. The whole economy basically just rely on export of agricultural products and labor. The earned foreign currency is quickly redistributed to the 1% through corruption, inflation, real estate, stock market and coin bubble. Then the 1% waste all of that capital on imported luxury goods. For all the economic growth, my living standard is pretty much the same or worse than 10 years ago, inflation ate up all the gains.
我认为越南已经达到了顶峰，人口激增为经济带来了巨大的推动力，但其中大部分都浪费在了腐败上。整个经济基本上只是依靠农产品和劳动力出口。赚来的外汇通过腐败、通货膨胀、房地产、股市和钱币泡沫迅速重新分配给 1%的人。然后，这 1%的人把所有的资金都浪费在进口奢侈品上。虽然经济有所增长，但我的生活水平与 10 年前差不多，甚至更差，因为通货膨胀吞噬了所有收益。
No. Vietnam is not on their level and will never be. Suppose all the countries stop growing, leaving only Vietnam to go. 100 years later, it still barely catches up. Maybe it can catch up with Philippines or Thailand.
不，越南跟他们不是一个水平的，也永远不会达到他们的水平。假设所有国家都停止增长，只剩下越南。100年后，它才能勉强赶上。也许它可以赶上菲律宾或泰国。
With current policies, restrictions and bureaucracy never… even if it’s reformed at a grand scale which is near impossible to implement due to the current infrastructure, it’ll be years before this place becomes a powerhouse… however if they did what the PRC did.. yes absolutely hint: Singaporeans changed their financial system
以目前的政策、限制和官僚主义......即使进行大规模的改革（由于目前的基础设施，这几乎是不可能实现的），这个地方也要过很多年才能成为一个强国......然而，如果他们能像中国那样做......是的，绝对可以。提示：新加坡人改变了他们的金融体系
The skill is here but I think some government policies will need to change to be more business friendly to bring small and medium sized companies here. The bureaucracy causes many to give up and leave. Also there need to be massive improvement in the infrastructure for people and supply chain issues. Just me opinion...
这里有技术，但我认为政府需要改变一些政策，使其对企业更加友好，从而将中小型公司吸引到这里来。官僚主义导致许多公司放弃并离开。此外，还需要大力改善基础设施，解决人员和供应链问题。这只是我的看法......
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Thing is... cities are growing, infrastructure is increasing,... But what about places besides the big cities?
This is why it will take a while for Vietnam to increase the gdp per capita. The cities are developing well, but everything else remains the same.
That's the real economic challenge for this country, developing everything in the countryside, small towns,... It's a whole different world out there, one that tourists don't get to see.
问题是......城市在发展，基础设施在增加...... 但除了大城市之外，其他地方又如何呢？
这就是越南需要一段时间才能提高人均 GDP 的原因。城市发展得很好，但其他地方却依然如故。
这才是这个国家真正的经济挑战，发展农村、小城镇......那里是一个完全不同的世界，一个游客看不到的世界。
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Doubtful.
I mean, looking at the trade war between the US and PRC. There's a non-zero chance that some countries will do whatever they can to keep us from fully developed.
That, and even in case of peaceful, do you really think that those eastern powers will stay still and not grow?
持怀疑态度。
我的意思是，看看中美之间的贸易战吧。有些国家会不择手段地阻止我们全面发展，这种可能性不是零。
即使在和平的情况下，你真的认为那些东亚列强会停滞不前，不会发展吗？
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Just for reference... I have lived 6 years in PH and 1 1/2 years in Indonesia... The last week since I got to Da Nang I've basically been ranting a lot to my Indonesian friends why the heck the southern countries in SEA seem like shitholes, but when you go to Thailand and Vietnam things look so much nicer when you randomly stroll around. At least Da Nang is so much more livable than your average city anywhere in Indonesia or Philippines. I saw the same thing in Thailand, it's nice there.
And no, I don't think Philippines or Indonesia are shitholes. But ... you just can't deny the obvious increase in quality of life as soon as you get to Vietnam/Thailand compared to Philippines/Indonesia. I get the feeling Vietnam invests much their money into much better infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, countries like PH spend millions to place sand on a small beach strip in Manila... only for the sand to wash away.
I don't know Vietnam, politics, average living conditions etc as well as I know PH / ID, but I can tell you, Vietnam is not as bad off as the rest of the region. I was so surprised that VN has such a bad reputation once I landed here.
仅供参考...我在菲律宾生活了 6 年，在印度尼西亚生活了 1 年半...来到岘港的这一周，我基本上都在跟我的印尼朋友唠叨，为什么东南亚南部的国家看起来就像个粪坑，但是当你去泰国和越南的时候，随便逛逛都会发现那里的环境要好得多。至少岘港比印尼或菲律宾的普通城市要宜居得多。我在泰国也看到了同样的情况，那里很不错。
不，我不认为菲律宾或印尼真的是粪坑。但是......你无法否认，与菲律宾/印度尼西亚相比，一到越南/泰国，生活质量就会明显提高。我感觉越南将大量资金投入到更好的基础设施项目中。与此同时，菲律宾等国家却花费数百万美元在马尼拉的一个小海滩上铺设沙子......结果沙子被冲走了。
我不像了解菲律宾/印尼那样了解越南、政治、平均生活条件等，但我可以告诉你，越南并不像该地区其他国家那样糟糕。一到越南，我就很惊讶越南的名声怎么会这么差。
Because u chose to visit Da Nang lol. It's the best city in VN. No way it is a good representation of VN. Live in HCMC for a few months and u will see: traffic jam, flooding, robbing, bureacratic officials who treat civilians as rubbish, traffic police who demand bribes, the list goes on...
因为你选择了去岘港。岘港是越南最好的城市。它不可能代表越南。在胡志明市住上几个月，你就会看到：交通堵塞、洪水泛滥、抢劫、视平民为垃圾的官僚、索贿的交警......不胜枚举......