Nearly twenty-five years ago this newspaper called Germany the sick man of the euro. The combination of reunification, a sclerotic job market and slowing export demand all plagued the economy, forcing unemployment into double digits. Then a series of reforms in the early 2000s ushered in a golden age. Germany became the envy of its peers. Not only did the trains run on time but, with its world-beating engineering, the country also stood out as an exporting powerhouse. However, while Germany has prospered, the world has kept on turning. As a result, Germany has once again started to fall behind.

大约25年前，本刊称德国为欧洲病夫。两德统一、就业市场僵化、出口需求放缓，这些因素共同困扰着德国经济，迫使失业率达到两位数。21世纪初的一系列改革开启了黄金时代，德国成为其他国家羡慕的对象。不仅火车准点运行，而且凭借其世界一流的工程技术，德国也脱颖而出成为出口大国。但在德国繁荣的同时，世界却在不断变化，结果德国再次开始落后。

Europe’s biggest economy has gone from a growth leader to a laggard. Between 2006 and 2017 it outperformed its large counterparts and kept pace with America. Yet today it has just experienced its third quarter of contraction or stagnation and may end up being the only big economy to shrink in 2023. The problems lie not only in the here and now. According to the imf, Germany will grow more slowly than America, Britain, France and Spain over the next five years, too.

欧洲最大的经济体已经从增长领跑者变成了落后者。在2006年至2017年期间，德国的表现优于其他大型经济体，与美国并驾齐驱。然而如今，德国刚刚经历了第三季度的经济萎缩或停滞，最终可能成为 2023 年唯一萎缩的大型经济体。问题不仅仅在于当下，据国际货币基金组织透露，未来五年德国的增长速度也将低于美国、英国、法国、西班牙。

To be sure, things are not as alarming as they were in 1999. Unemployment today is around 3%; the country is richer and more open. But Germans increasingly complain that their country is not working as well as it should. Four out of five tell pollsters that Germany is not a fair place to live. Trains now run so serially behind the clock that Switzerland has barred late ones from its network. After being stranded abroad for the second time this summer as her ageing official plane malfunctioned, Annalena Baerbock, the foreign minister, has aborted a trip to Australia.

可以肯定的是，情况并不像 1999 年时那么令人担忧。目前的失业率约为 3%；这个国家更加富裕，更加开放。但德国人越来越抱怨国家没有发挥应有的水平。五分之四的德国人在民意调查中认为，德国不是一个宜居的地方。现在火车不断晚点，以至于瑞士禁止晚点的德国火车进入铁路网。今年夏天，德国外长安娜莱娜·贝尔博克因老化的公务机出现故障而第二次滞留在国外，于是取消了澳大利亚之行。

For years Germany’s outperformance in old industries papered over its lack of investment in new ones. Complacency and an obsession with fiscal prudence led to too little public investment, and not just in Deutsche Bahn and the Bundeswehr. Overall, the country’s investment in information technology as a share of gdp is less than half that in America and France. Bureaucratic conservatism also gets in the way. Obtaining a licence to operate a business takes 120 days—twice as long as the oecd average. Added to this are worsening geopolitics, the difficulty of eliminating carbon emissions and the travails of an ageing population.

多年来，德国在传统产业上的优异表现掩盖了其对新兴产业投资的缺乏。自满情绪和对财政审慎的痴迷导致公共投资太少，不仅仅是德国铁路和德国联邦国防军。总体而言，德国的信息技术投资占GDP的比重还不到美国和法国的一半。官僚保守主义也成为障碍，企业获得经营许可证需要120天，是经合组织平均时间的两倍。除此之外，还有不断恶化的地缘政治、难以清除的碳排放、人口老龄化的困境。

The geopolitics mean that manufacturing may no longer be the cash cow it used to be. Of all the large Western economies, Germany is the most exposed to China. Last year trade between the two amounted to $314bn. That relationship was once governed by the profit motive; now things are more complicated. In China German carmakers are losing the battle for market share against home-grown competitors. And in more sensitive areas, as the West “de-risks” its ties with China, some may be severed altogether. Meanwhile, a scramble for advanced manufacturing and robust supply chains is unleashing a torrent of subsidies to foster home-grown industry that will either threaten German firms or demand subsidies inside the European unx.

地缘政治意味着制造业可能不再是以前的摇钱树了。在所有西方大型经济体中，德国受中国的影响最大。去年，两国之间的贸易额达3140亿美元。这种关系曾经是受利润动机支配的，现在事情变得复杂了。在中国，德国汽车制造商的市场份额正在输给本土竞争对手。在比较敏感的领域，随着西方对华关系“去风险”，某些关系可能被完全切断。与此同时，各国围绕着高端制造业和稳定供应链而展开角逐，释放出大量补贴来培育本土产业，这将会威胁到德国企业，或者引发欧盟内部的补贴需求。

Another difficulty comes from the energy transition. Germany’s industrial sector uses nearly twice as much energy as the next-biggest in Europe, and its consumers have a much bigger carbon footprint than those in France or Italy. Cheap Russian gas is no longer an option and the country has, in a spectacular own goal, turned away from nuclear power. A lack of investment in grids and a sluggardly permit system are hobbling the transition to cheap renewable energy, threatening to make manufacturers less competitive.

另一个困难来自能源转型。德国工业部门消耗的能源几乎是欧洲第二大工业部门的两倍，其消费者的碳足迹远超过法国和意大利。廉价的俄罗斯天然气没指望了，但德国又放弃了核电，真是搬起石头砸自己的脚。电网投资不足和迟缓的许可证制。正在阻碍德国向廉价可再生能源的转型，并有可能削弱德国制造商的竞争力。

Increasingly, too, Germany lacks the talent it needs. A baby boom after the second world war means that 2m workers, on net, will retire over the next five years. Although the country has attracted almost 1.1m Ukrainian refugees, many are children and non-working women who may soon return home. Already, two-fifths of employers say they are struggling to find skilled workers. That is not just grumbling: the state of Berlin cannot fill even half of its teaching vacancies with qualified staff.

德国需要的人才也越来越匮乏。第二次世界大战后的婴儿潮意味着净数200 万名工人将在未来五年内退休。尽管德国吸引了近 110 万乌克兰难民，但许多是妇女和儿童，她们可能很快就会返回家园。五分之二的雇主表示很难雇佣到技术工人。这不仅仅是抱怨：柏林州甚至无法用合格的员工填补一半的教师空缺岗位。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


For Germany to thrive in a more fragmented, greener and ageing world, its economic model will need to adapt. Yet whereas high unemployment forced Gerhard Schröder’s coalition into action in the 1990s, the alarm bells are easier to ignore this time. Few in today’s government, made up of the Social Democrats, the liberal Free Democrats and the Greens, admit to the scale of the task. Even if they did, the coalition is so fractious that the parties would struggle to agree on a remedy. Moreover, Alternative für Deutschland, a far-right populist party, is polling at 20% nationally and may win some state elections next year. Few in government will propose radical change for fear of playing into its hands.

德国要想在一个更分散、更环保、更老龄化的世界中蓬勃发展，有必要对其经济模式做出调整。尽管高失业率曾经迫使格哈德·施罗德的联盟在 20 世纪 90 年代采取行动，但这一次的警钟更容易被忽视。在当今由社会民主党、自由民主党、绿党组成的政府中，几乎没人承认这项任务的艰巨。即使他们承认，执政联盟也非常难以驾驭，以至于各方很难就调整方案达成一致。另外，极右翼民粹主义政党“德国选择党”在全国的民意支持率为 20%，明年可能会赢得一些州的选举。政府中很少有人会提出激进的改革，因为怕正中他们的下怀。

The temptation may therefore be to stick with the old ways of doing things. But that would not bring back Germany’s heyday. Nor would it quell the onrush of challenges to the status quo. China will continue to develop and compete, and de-risking, decarbonisation and demography cannot simply be wished away.

因此，坚持老一套做法可能具有吸引力。但这无法让德国重现鼎盛时期，也无法解决当前面临的挑战。中国将继续发展和竞争，去风险、碳减排、人口结构问题不可能一厢情愿地消失。

Instead of running scared, politicians must look ahead, by fostering new firms, infrastructure and talent. Embracing technology would be a gift to new firms and industries. A digitised bureaucracy would do wonders for smaller firms that lack the capacity to fill out reams of paperwork. Further permit reform would help ensure that infrastructure gets built speedily and to budget. Money also matters. Too often infrastructure has suffered as the government has made a fetish of its balanced-budget rules. Although Germany cannot spend as freely as it might have in the 2010s, when interest rates were low, forgoing investment as a way of reining in excess spending is a false economy.

政治家们不应畏首畏尾，而应着眼于未来，培养新企业、基础设施、人才。迎接科技对于新公司和新兴行业来说是个机遇。对于那些没有能力填写大量文书工作的小企业来说，数字化的官僚机构将创造奇迹。许可证制度的进一步改革将有助于确保基础设施的快速建设并符合预算。资金也很重要，由于政府过分重视平衡预算规则，导致基础设施建设经常陷入困境。尽管德国不能像低利率的2010 年代那样随意支出，但通过放弃投资来控制过度支出会得不偿失。

Agenda 2030

2030 年议程

Just as important will be attracting new talent. Germany has liberalised its immigration rules, but the visa process is still glacial and Germany is better at welcoming refugees than professionals. Attracting more skilled immigrants could even nurture home-grown talent, if it helped deal with the chronic shortage of teachers. In a country of coalition governments and cautious bureaucrats, none of this will be easy. Yet two decades ago, Germany pulled off a remarkable transformation to extraordinary effect. It is time for another visit to the health farm.

吸引新人才也同样重要。德国已经放宽了移民规定，但签证程序仍然极其缓慢，而且德国比较擅长吸引难民，而不是专业人士。如果有助于解决教师长期短缺的问题，那么吸引更多的技术移民还能培养本土人才。在一个由联合政府和谨慎官僚组成的国家，这一切都不容易。然而二十年前，德国实现过一次华丽的转型，并取得了非凡的成果，病夫是时候再次光顾健康会馆了。