Two big headlines hit the news wires within an hour of each other this week. One was the indictment of former US Republican president Donald Trump for trying to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election he lost to his Democrat successor Joe Biden.
The other was the shock downgrade by Fitch Ratings of the sovereign debt rating of the United States from the long-pristine AAA to AA+.
One story has to do with politics, the other with economics, but both are closely related. They pertain to what I have called in this space “the democratic decay and economic decline” of all the major Western countries, beginning with the US. On the debt rating front, Fitch, one of the big three global rating agencies, provides a cogent explanation of the downgrade, which points to the dysfunctional state of the US government.
“The rating downgrade of the United States reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance relative to AA and AAA rated peers over the past two decades that has manifested in repeated debt limit stand-offs and last-minute resolutions.

本周，两个重大头条新闻在一小时内相继出现。其中之一是对美国前共和党总统唐纳德·特朗普的起诉，因为他试图推翻他输给民煮党继任者乔·拜登的2020年总统选举结果。
另一个是 惠誉国际评级 将美国主权债务评级从长期的AAA下调至AA+。
一个故事与政治有关，另一个故事与经济有关，但两者密切相关。它们与我在这个领域所说的所有主要西方国家（从美国开始）的“民煮衰落和经济衰落”有关。在债务评级方面，全球三大评级机构之一的惠誉对降级给出了令人信服的解释，这表明美国政府功能失调。
“美国评级下调反映了未来三年预期的财政恶化、总体政府债务负担较高且不断增长，以及过去二十年来，相对于评级为AA和AAA的同类国家，美国的治理水平受到侵蚀，这体现在一再出现的债务上限僵局和最后一刻的决议中。”

“There has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025. The repeated debt-limit political stand-offs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management.”
Fitch says Washington has no long or medium-term planning, only a short-term Band-Aid. “In addition, the government lacks a medium-term fiscal frxwork, unlike most peers, and has a complex budgeting process,” it wrote. “These factors, along with several economic shocks as well as tax cuts and new spending initiatives, have contributed to successive debt increases over the last decade.”
Predictably, top officials such as US Treasury chief Janet Yellen are furious, but the facts speak for themselves. In any case, Fitch is not the first. Standard and Poor’s, the other big agency, slashed the US rating to AA+ way back in 2011, also over a previous debt ceiling showdown, something that has become ritual blackmail by the Republicans.
With the latest rating downgrade from Fitch, the US now pretty much joins the levels of its English-speaking “Five Eyes” close allies of Australia, Canada, New Zealand; they are, however, economically ahead of Britain.

“尽管 6 月两党同意暂停债务上限至 2025 年 1 月，但过去 20 年来，治理标准不断恶化，包括财政和债务问题。债务上限的政治僵局一再出现，最后——微小的决议削弱了人们对财政管理的信心。”
惠誉表示，华盛顿没有长期或中期计划，只有短期权宜之计。“此外，与大多数同行不同，政府缺乏中期财政框架，并且预算流程复杂，”报告写道。“这些因素，加上几次经济冲击以及减税和新的支出举措，导致过去十年债务连续增加。”
可以预见的是，美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦等高级官员会感到愤怒，但事实不言而喻。无论如何，惠誉并不是第一个。早在2011年，另一家大型机构标准普尔就将美国评级下调至AA+，也是在之前的债务上限摊牌中，这已成为共和党的例行敲诈。
随着惠誉最新的评级下调，美国现在几乎加入了其说英语的“五眼”亲密盟友澳大利亚、加拿大、新西兰的水平；然而，他们在经济上领先于英国。