预计在通货膨胀率降至7.9%后，英国利率的上升幅度不会那么大了
UK interest rates forecast to rise less sharply after inflation falls to 7.9%
译文简介
“不管怎样，经济衰退即将来临。”——《卫报》报道。
正文翻译
UK interest rates forecast to rise less sharply after inflation falls to 7.9%
-Annual rate back on downward path, which eases pressure on Bank of England
预计在通货膨胀率降至7.9%后，英国利率的上升幅度不会那么大了
——年利率重回下行轨道，减轻了英格兰银行的压力
-Annual rate back on downward path, which eases pressure on Bank of England
预计在通货膨胀率降至7.9%后，英国利率的上升幅度不会那么大了
——年利率重回下行轨道，减轻了英格兰银行的压力
(UK inflation is the lowest since March 2022 but is still well above the Bank of England’s 2% target.)
（英国的通货膨胀率是自2022年3月以来的最低水平，但仍远高于英格兰银行2%的目标。）
新闻：
UK inflation fell further than expected in June to 7.9% amid a sharp drop in petrol prices, easing forecasts for how aggressively the Bank of England will raise interest rates over the coming year.
由于汽油价格大幅下跌，英国6月份的通货膨胀率比预期进一步下降至7.9%，这缓和了人们对英国央行明年加息力度的预测。
由于汽油价格大幅下跌，英国6月份的通货膨胀率比预期进一步下降至7.9%，这缓和了人们对英国央行明年加息力度的预测。
In the first positive surprise for inflation since January, the Office for National Statistics said the annual inflation rate as measured by the consumer prices index resumed a downward path after unexpectedly sticking at 8.7% in May. The drop exceeded City forecasts for a decline to 8.2%.
英国国家统计局说，以消费者价格指数衡量的年通胀率在5月份出人意料地停留在8.7%之后，恢复了下行路径，这是今年1月份以来通胀率首次出现惊喜。这一降幅超过了伦敦金融城预测的8.2%。
英国国家统计局说，以消费者价格指数衡量的年通胀率在5月份出人意料地停留在8.7%之后，恢复了下行路径，这是今年1月份以来通胀率首次出现惊喜。这一降幅超过了伦敦金融城预测的8.2%。
Financial markets responded by betting that the Bank of England would no longer drive interest rates above 6% early next year, raising hopes for some modest relief for mortgage holders amid the sharpest rise in borrowing costs for decades.
金融市场的反应是押注英国央行明年初不会再将利率提高到6%以上，这让抵押贷款持有者在借贷成本几十年来最急剧上升的情况下有望得到些许缓解。
金融市场的反应是押注英国央行明年初不会再将利率提高到6%以上，这让抵押贷款持有者在借贷成本几十年来最急剧上升的情况下有望得到些许缓解。
The pound fell by more than a cent against the dollar to trade below $1.29. Shares on the London stock market rallied as investors predicted that the central bank would introduce a more modest quarter-point rise in borrowing costs at its next policymaking meeting in August instead of a tougher half-point increase from the current level of 5%.
英镑兑美元汇率下跌逾1美分，跌破1英镑兑1.29美元。由于投资者预测央行将在8月份的下一次政策制定会议上引入更为温和的上调借贷成本25个基点，而不是从目前的5%水平上调50个基点，伦敦股市的股票上涨。
英镑兑美元汇率下跌逾1美分，跌破1英镑兑1.29美元。由于投资者预测央行将在8月份的下一次政策制定会议上引入更为温和的上调借贷成本25个基点，而不是从目前的5%水平上调50个基点，伦敦股市的股票上涨。
However, despite dropping to the lowest rate since March 2022, UK inflation remains the highest among the G7 group of advanced economies.
然而，尽管英国的通胀率降至2022年3月以来的最低水平，但在发达经济体组成的七国集团中，英国的通胀率仍是最高的。
然而，尽管英国的通胀率降至2022年3月以来的最低水平，但在发达经济体组成的七国集团中，英国的通胀率仍是最高的。
Highlighting the risk that Rishi Sunak could still miss his target to halve inflation in 2023 despite the improvement in June, the International Monetary Fund said the UK’s headline rate was on track to hit 5.25% by the end of 2023.
国际货币基金组织强调，尽管6月份情况有所改善，但苏纳克仍有可能无法实现2023年“将通胀减半”的目标。国际货币基金组织表示，到2023年底，英国的总体通胀率有望达到5.25%。
国际货币基金组织强调，尽管6月份情况有所改善，但苏纳克仍有可能无法实现2023年“将通胀减半”的目标。国际货币基金组织表示，到2023年底，英国的总体通胀率有望达到5.25%。
The Washington-based fund said there was a “high” risk of inflation sticking at elevated levels, forcing the Bank to keep interest rates higher for longer and raising the chances of a recession.
总部位于华盛顿的国际货币基金组织表示，通胀维持在高位的风险“很高”，这将迫使英国央行在更长时间内维持高利率，并加大经济衰退的可能性。
总部位于华盛顿的国际货币基金组织表示，通胀维持在高位的风险“很高”，这将迫使英国央行在更长时间内维持高利率，并加大经济衰退的可能性。
Inflation stood at 10.7% when Sunak promised to halve it, at a time when most economists thought it would happen anyway. Speaking on a visit to the headquarters of Jaguar Land Rover in Gaydon, Warwickshire, the prime minister said he “always knew” his targets would be difficult to meet.
当苏纳克承诺将通货膨胀率减半时，通货膨胀率为10.7%，当时大多数经济学家认为这无论如何都会实现。苏纳克在访问捷豹路虎位于沃里克郡盖登的总部时表示，他“一直知道”自己的目标很难实现。
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当苏纳克承诺将通货膨胀率减半时，通货膨胀率为10.7%，当时大多数经济学家认为这无论如何都会实现。苏纳克在访问捷豹路虎位于沃里克郡盖登的总部时表示，他“一直知道”自己的目标很难实现。
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“I don’t make any apology for that. I think it’s right to be ambitious for the country and set ambitious targets that I want to achieve,” he said.
“我不为此道歉。我认为对国家有雄心壮志，设定我想要实现的宏伟目标是正确的，”他说。
“我不为此道歉。我认为对国家有雄心壮志，设定我想要实现的宏伟目标是正确的，”他说。
According to the latest snapshot from the ONS, the fall in the inflation rate in June was driven by the price of petrol and diesel dropping by more than a fifth compared with the same month a year ago, when prices were close to a record high.
根据英国国家统计局的最新数据，6月份通胀率下降的原因是汽油和柴油价格较去年同期下跌逾五分之一，当时价格接近历史高点。
根据英国国家统计局的最新数据，6月份通胀率下降的原因是汽油和柴油价格较去年同期下跌逾五分之一，当时价格接近历史高点。
The annual rate of increase in food and drink prices slowed in June to 17.3%, compared with 18.3% in May, helping to bring down the headline inflation rate.
与5月份的18.3%相比，6月份食品和饮料价格的年增长率放缓至17.3%，这有助于降低总体通胀率。
与5月份的18.3%相比，6月份食品和饮料价格的年增长率放缓至17.3%，这有助于降低总体通胀率。
Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, and is closely watched by the Bank of England, also fell back to 6.9% after reaching a 30-year high of 7.1% in May.
英国央行密切关注的剔除食品和能源的核心通胀率也在5月份达到7.1%的30年高点后回落至6.9%。
英国央行密切关注的剔除食品和能源的核心通胀率也在5月份达到7.1%的30年高点后回落至6.9%。
Prices for some goods continued to rise sharply – including a 54% jump in the price of sugar after bad weather hit harvests around the world. While increases in the price of milk, cheese and eggs eased, they were still up by more than a quarter compared with a year ago.
一些商品的价格继续大幅上涨，包括在恶劣天气影响全球收成后，食糖价格上涨了54%。尽管牛奶、奶酪和鸡蛋的价格涨幅有所放缓，但与一年前相比，涨幅仍超过四分之一。
一些商品的价格继续大幅上涨，包括在恶劣天气影响全球收成后，食糖价格上涨了54%。尽管牛奶、奶酪和鸡蛋的价格涨幅有所放缓，但与一年前相比，涨幅仍超过四分之一。
Inflation is on course to drop further in the coming months after Ofgem lowered its consumer energy price cap in July, reflecting a fall in wholesale gas and electricity prices. Liquid fuels, which were not subject to a cap, fell by almost 50%.
随着天然气和电力批发价格的下降，英国能源监管局在7月份下调了消费者能源价格上限，通胀在未来几个月有望进一步下降。无上限的液体燃料价格下降了近50%。
随着天然气和电力批发价格的下降，英国能源监管局在7月份下调了消费者能源价格上限，通胀在未来几个月有望进一步下降。无上限的液体燃料价格下降了近50%。
Highlighting the potential for further declines, producer price inflation – which measures factory gate prices – fell close to zero, from a peak of about 25% last year.
工业品出厂价格指数从去年约25%的峰值降至接近于零，突显出进一步下跌的可能性。
工业品出厂价格指数从去年约25%的峰值降至接近于零，突显出进一步下跌的可能性。
“The main story today is that inflation is lower than expected, fuelling a narrative that we are through the worst,” said Kitty Ussher, the chief economist at the Institute of Directors. “The Bank of England will hope that this will cause business leaders and others to lower their expectations of future inflation, which could then become self-fulfilling.”
美国董事学会首席经济学家凯蒂·厄舍表示：“今天的主要情况是，通胀低于预期，这助长了一种说法，即‘我们已经度过了最糟糕的时期’。英国央行希望，这将促使商界领袖和其他人降低对未来通胀的预期，然后这种预期可能会自我实现。”
美国董事学会首席经济学家凯蒂·厄舍表示：“今天的主要情况是，通胀低于预期，这助长了一种说法，即‘我们已经度过了最糟糕的时期’。英国央行希望，这将促使商界领袖和其他人降低对未来通胀的预期，然后这种预期可能会自我实现。”
The Bank has already raised interest rates 13 times in succession to 5%, up from a record low of 0.1% in December 2021, adding to the pressure on businesses and households amid the cost of living crisis.
自2021年12月0.1%的历史低点起，英国央行已经连续13次上调利率至5%，在生活成本危机中，这加大了企业和家庭的压力。
自2021年12月0.1%的历史低点起，英国央行已经连续13次上调利率至5%，在生活成本危机中，这加大了企业和家庭的压力。
The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, said the best way to ease the pressure on households was to get inflation falling further. “We aren’t complacent and know that high prices are still a huge worry for families and businesses,” he said.
财政大臣杰里米·亨特表示，缓解家庭压力的最佳方式是让通胀进一步下降。他说：“我们并不自满，我们知道高油价对家庭和企业来说仍然是一个巨大的担忧。”
财政大臣杰里米·亨特表示，缓解家庭压力的最佳方式是让通胀进一步下降。他说：“我们并不自满，我们知道高油价对家庭和企业来说仍然是一个巨大的担忧。”
Charities warned that the cost of living crisis was still far from over, with prices remaining significantly higher than they were two years ago, and continuing to rise at historically high rates.
慈善机构警告称，生活成本危机远未结束，物价仍远高于两年前，并继续以历史高位速度上涨。
慈善机构警告称，生活成本危机远未结束，物价仍远高于两年前，并继续以历史高位速度上涨。
Alfie Stirling, the chief economist at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, said: “We must recognise we are still in the belly of this crisis. For the 5.7 million low-income families in this country already forced to eat less or skip meals, inflation at close to 8% and food inflation above 17% will come as precious little comfort overall.”
约瑟夫·朗特里基金会首席经济学家阿尔菲·斯特林表示：“我们必须认识到，我们仍处于这场危机的中心。对于这个国家已经被迫少吃或不吃饭的570万低收入家庭来说，接近8%的通货膨胀率和超过17%的食品通货膨胀率将是一个宝贵的小安慰。”
约瑟夫·朗特里基金会首席经济学家阿尔菲·斯特林表示：“我们必须认识到，我们仍处于这场危机的中心。对于这个国家已经被迫少吃或不吃饭的570万低收入家庭来说，接近8%的通货膨胀率和超过17%的食品通货膨胀率将是一个宝贵的小安慰。”
UK inflation remains higher than in many comparable economies.
英国的通胀率仍高于许多可比经济体。
英国的通胀率仍高于许多可比经济体。
Inflation in the eurozone fell to 5.5% in June, with the rate below 2% in Spain. US inflation cooled to 3%, easing pressure on the US Federal Reserve to increase interest rates much further.
欧元区6月份的通胀率降至5.5%，西班牙的通胀率低于2%。美国通胀率降至3%，减轻了美联储进一步提高利率的压力。
欧元区6月份的通胀率降至5.5%，西班牙的通胀率低于2%。美国通胀率降至3%，减轻了美联储进一步提高利率的压力。
“Inflation has been persistently high and remains higher than our international peers. This is becoming a hallmark of Tory economic failure,” said Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor.
“通货膨胀率一直居高不下，仍然高于我们的国际同行。这正成为保守党经济失败的标志，”影子财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯表示。
“通货膨胀率一直居高不下，仍然高于我们的国际同行。这正成为保守党经济失败的标志，”影子财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯表示。
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Obviously still too high, but my guess is history will show that the BoE raised rates too late and then for too long.
It’s human nature. It’s much easier to defend raising rates when inflation was 7.9% and overshooting, than it is to defend holding them and inflation coming in higher in 2 years.
显然还是太高了，但我的猜测是，历史将表明，英国央行加息的时间太迟，而且持续的时间也太长。
这是人的本性。当通货膨胀率达到7.9%和过高时，为加息辩护，比在两年后通货膨胀率会更高的情况下为保持利率辩护要容易得多。
Was talking to a colleague yesterday about interest rates. If you look at them over the past 60 years or so, we've never really had them as low as they are now, typically they've sat around 7%.
Inflation is still largely owing to price scalping imo, taking fuel prices as an example some garages within a mile of each other still have 10p difference between them, even BP garages.
And people are taking the outright piss with labour rates, i.e. I've had five quotes for plastering ranging between 250 and 600 for the same ceiling.
My wife recently scraped the side of her car, needs a door skin and some paint on the wing, garages are telling our insurer they need to put a whole new door, cards, rubbers, a new wheel and tyres, new fuel flap for some reason bloating the approved garages price to just shy of £3500 when I've got an independent garage to quote at £1200.
Then look at gas and electric prices. Were generating near 50% of our electric through renewable power and it's still tied to gas prices, gas prices have tanked this year and the price "cut" is 3p per kwh...
我昨天和一个同事谈论利率。如果你回顾过去60年左右的时间，你会发现它们从未像现在这么低过，通常都在7%左右。
在我看来，通货膨胀在很大程度上仍然是由于价格倒卖，以燃料价格为例，一些相距一英里的加油站之间仍然有10便士的差价，即使是英国石油公司的加油站也是。
而且，人们对劳动力价格不屑一顾，比如，我收到了5份报价，同一天花板的涂灰价格在250至600英镑之间。
我妻子最近刮坏了她的车，需要修复门皮和翼子板上的一些油漆，修理厂告诉我们的保险公司他们需要安装一个全新的门、板、橡胶，一个新的轮子和轮胎，新的油箱挡板，出于某些理由，核定的修理价格接近3500英镑，而我有一个独立的修理厂的报价只要1200英镑。
再看看天然气和电力价格。我们近50%的电力是通过可再生能源产生的，但它仍然与天然气价格挂钩，今年天然气价格大幅下跌，于是电力价格也“下调”了每度3便士……
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Then look at gas and electric prices. Were generating near 50% of our electric through renewable power and it's still tied to gas prices, gas prices have tanked this year and the price "cut" is 3p per kwh...
i think this may be one of the biggest factors for inflation, and rather than doing something about it the government has actually enabled and even encouraged it.
the cost of energy filters through to literally everything else. food is more expensive to make and refrigerate, transport of goods is more expensive, and costs of all production and services increase because nothing is made or done without using energy.
and what do the government do about it? they just gave everyone taxpayer money to pay the bill, which all ends up in the hands of the energy companies as profit, giving the energy companies exactly zero motivation to lower prices. its another massive transfer of public wealth to private shareholders and it barely gets talked about in the media.
and even when it is talked about, the defence is always that they introduced a windfall tax. except tat tax can and is being avoided by "investing" in future energy infrastructure. future energy infrastructure that the companies then own as an asset on the balance books, all paid for by the good ol' UK taxpayer. what a fucking system.
“再看看天然气和电力价格。我们近50%的电力是通过可再生能源产生的，但它仍然与天然气价格挂钩，今年天然气价格大幅下跌，于是电力价格也“下调”了每度3便士……”
我认为这可能是造成通货膨胀的最大因素之一，而政府非但没有采取措施，反而助长甚至鼓励了这种行为。
能源成本几乎渗透到其他所有方面。食品的制造和冷藏成本更高，货物的运输成本更高，所有生产和服务的成本都在增加，因为不使用能源就做不了任何事情。
政府对此做了什么？他们只是给每个人纳税人的钱来支付账单，这些钱最终都以利润的形式落入能源公司的手中，这让能源公司完全没有动力降低价格。这是又一次公共财富向私人股东的大规模转移，而媒体却很少谈论此事。
甚至当谈论到这个问题时，辩护理由总是说他们引入了暴利税。除此之外，税收可以而且正在通过“投资”未来的能源基础设施来逃避——随后这些公司将这些“未来的能源基础设施”作为资产放在资产负债表上，所有这些都由善良的英国纳税人支付。这是什么tmd破体制。
The central bank raising interest rates only controls inflation if the inflation is driven by consumer consumption (spending) and/or wage rises.
If, as we have, UK inflation is being driven not by those two but by external factors (Covid legacy, Ukraine, Brexit, corporate greed, shortages etc etc) then far from controlling inflation the central bank raising interest rates fuels inflation.
只有当通货膨胀是由消费者消费（支出）和/或工资上涨驱动时，中央银行提高利率才能控制住通货膨胀。
如果像我们所经历的那样，英国的通胀不是由这两个因素驱动的，而是由外部因素驱动的（新冠疫情、乌克兰、英国脱欧、企业贪婪、物资短缺等等），那么央行加息非但不能控制通胀，反而还会加剧通胀。
BoE is too influenced by parliament these days. The correct economic move would have been to crank interest rates up early and by a lot to give us a short, sharp recession for a year.
This approach will cause a recession that lasts years but the tories don't mind that because it will undermine everything the next government tries to achieve making it easier for them to win-back seats in 4-6 year's time.
这些天英国央行太受议会影响了。正确的经济举措应该是尽早大幅提高利率，让我们陷入为期一年的短暂、剧烈的衰退。
现在的这种做法将导致持续数年的经济衰退，但保守党并不介意，因为这会破坏下一届政府试图实现的一切目标，使他们更容易在4-6年内赢回席位。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
It's as if the BoE has no idea what they're doing. Asleep ay the wheel and raised rates far too late, waiting until inflation had climbed too high to respond. Now they're raising rates too quickly, not allowing for the lag between a rate rise and inflation changes to take effect. Rate rises don't have instantaneous impacts on inflation, yet they've been pumping out rare rises like a monthly newsletter.
Do they want a recession? Because this is how you cause a recession.
英国央行似乎不知道自己在做什么。玩忽职守，加息太晚，等到通胀攀升到过高水平才做出反应。现在他们加息过快，没有考虑到加息与通胀变化之间的滞后效应。加息不会对通胀产生立竿见影的影响，但他们一直像定期出月报一样推出罕见的加息。
他们是想要经济衰退吗？因为这就是导致经济衰退的原因。
It takes just 9 years for something that costs £100 in the 1st year, to cost £200 in the 9th, at 7.9% inflation.
9 years to double. That's all.
按7.9%的通货膨胀率计算，第一年花费100英镑的东西，在第9年就要花费200英镑，只需要9年。
9年即翻倍。就是这样。
Had a popular staple oven - pizza, in a relatively mid-low grocery chain, hiked up by almost 300% in 8 months...
How's that work?
有一种很受欢迎的主食——披萨，在一个相对中低端的杂货连锁店，在8个月内价格上涨了近300%……
这又是怎么回事呢？
This is no reason to celebrate - those figures are hiding a massive problem that's going to hit in the next 6 months when mortgages come up for renewal. Wages are riding 7%, which means that cost will be passed along as well. This is far from good news.
这不是庆祝的理由——这些数字掩盖了一个巨大的问题，这个问题将在未来6个月抵押贷款到期时出现。工资上涨了7%，这意味着成本也将被转嫁。这绝不是什么好消息。
The central banks had a difficult job, with pandemic, recovery pressure, Russia-Ukraine war, China-US tensions, and threat of Taiwan invasion. Add to that the cabinet whose fiscal policies were sometimes horrible.
面对疫情、经济复苏压力、俄乌战争、中美紧张局势和台海局势升温，央行的工作很困难。再加上一个财政政策有时惨不忍睹的内阁。
Still miles too high. Considering people haven't got the money to spend anyway it shouldn't have gone up anyway. Wages don't effect inflation, wages been lagging behind for years . Prices won't come down and petrol will remain the same price or thereabout. Any increase in benefits or pensions have been swallowed up. Its geared against us. Everytime you see a light at the end of the tunnel, they tax you even more. And it's taxes that are hurting people.
还是太高了。考虑到人们没有钱花，它本来就不应该上涨。工资不会影响通货膨胀，多年来工资一直落后于通货膨胀。价格不会下降，汽油价格也将保持不变。任何福利或养老金的增加都已被吞没。这是针对我们的。每当你看到隧道尽头的亮光，他们就会对你征收更多的税。而且是伤害人民的税。
Depends on the outcome you want. We have only narrowly avoided a recession.
取决于你想要的结果。我们只是勉强避免了经济衰退而已。
Narrowly avoided so far...
只是到目前为止勉强避免了……
This is a drop change in the velocity of inflation, but inflation is still running at 8%. The housing market is yet to fully realise the effects of the base rate changes and there are further inflationary pressures such as the US Treasury lifting the cap on its expenditure over the next 3 years and effectively green lighting the money printer.. that will have an inflationary butterfly effect all over the planet.
Everyone should be prepared that things could become very difficult over the next few years.
这只是通货膨胀增速的下降，但通货膨胀率仍保持在8%。房地产市场还没有完全意识到基本利率变化的影响，而且还有进一步的通胀压力，比如美国财政部在未来3年提高支出上限，实际上就是在给印钞开绿灯。这将在全球范围内产生通货膨胀的蝴蝶效应。
每个人都应该做好准备，未来几年情况可能会变得非常艰难。
Recession is coming regardless
不管怎样，经济衰退即将来临
Not that I know anything but I reckon we’ll just be flat for a few years whilst avoiding an actual recession
并不是说我知道什么，但我认为我们会在未来几年保持平稳，同时避免真正的衰退
.. so much like the previous 13 years ..
……就像过去的13年一样是吧……
The difference is this time that flat with inflation high is a real terms decrease.
其区别在于，这一次，在通胀高企的情况下，保持平稳就是实际上的下降。
No it isn't. Growth includes inflation
不，不是的。增长包括了通货膨胀
it accounts for inflation, or it includes inflation?
Point 1) Inflation is at 5%, but, GDP growth is at 1%, so, still a real increase of 1%. Point 2) Inflation is at 5%, but GDP growth is at 1% so, a 4% real decrease.
Because my understanding is that GDP doesn't account for inflation. That's what 'real GDP'is made for.
We've effectively been in recession for some years now.
是考虑了通货膨胀，还是包括了通货膨胀？
1、通货膨胀率是5%，但是GDP增长是1%，所以，仍然是1%的实际增长。2、通货膨胀率为5%，但GDP增长为1%，所以实际上下降了4%。
因为我的理解是GDP并不能解释通货膨胀。这就是“实际GDP”的意义所在。
我们实际上已经陷入衰退好几年了。
I think you may be right about GDP and real GDP, but when you see numbers about the growth of the economy they are all after inflation has been considered or 'real' growth. So inflation of 5% and growth of 1% means we have actually grown 6% but "lost" 5% due to inflation.
If you think about it it makes sense. Growth has been between 0 and 0.5% per quarter for a while now. If inflation was not taken off surely we would see at least some of the 10%+ numbers we had? The economy hasn't been shrinking by 10% so even if you believe we were in a recession we would still be getting around 8% growth surely.
我认为你对GDP和实际GDP的看法可能是对的，但当你看到有关经济增长的数据时，它们都是在考虑了通胀或“实际”增长之后给出的。所以5%的通胀和1%的增长意味着我们实际上增长了6%，但由于通胀“损失”了5%。
如果你仔细想想，这是有道理的。经济增长率在每季度0 - 0.5%之间已经有一段时间了。如果通货膨胀没有得到控制，我们肯定会看到至少10%以上的数字，但我们看到了吗？经济并没有以10%的速度萎缩，所以即使你认为我们处于衰退之中，我们仍然肯定会有8%左右的增长。
We lost 4% gdp because of brexit, and bankruptcies are rising, councils are starting to become bankrupt because they used cheap government loans for money-making projects and can no longer service those loans, partly because covid affected their income and partly because of interest rate rises.
There seem to be a lot of financial ticking time bombs about to go off that could have been avoided. The use of aerated concrete in buildings is another costly one about to go off.
由于英国脱欧，我们损失了4%的GDP，破产正在增加，地方议会开始破产，因为他们使用廉价的政府贷款来投资赚钱项目，并且无法再偿还这些贷款，部分原因是疫情影响了他们的收入，部分原因是利率上升。
似乎有很多本来可以避免的金融定时炸弹即将爆炸。在建筑物中使用加气混凝土是另一种即将被淘汰的烧钱做法。
We needed a short recession.
A recession can actually create a platform for an economy to bounce-back and start growing again.
We've avoided a recession but will endure years, maybe even a decade of heavily stagnated growth.
我们需要一场短暂的衰退。
经济衰退实际上可以为经济反弹并重新开始增长创造一个平台。
我们已经避免了一场经济衰退，但将经历数年，甚至可能是10年的严重增长停滞。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Except the economy only "bounces back" for a sext few while hundreds of thousands of people lose their jobs, houses and enter food insecurity. Recessions only benefit the ones who can use it to inflate their already enormous wealth. We don't need a recession, we need the rich to pay their fucking dues.
除了经济只会为少数人“反弹”，而成千上万的人失去了工作、房子和粮食安全。经济衰退只会让那些能够利用它来膨胀自己已经非常庞大的财富的人受益。我们不需要经济衰退，我们需要富人缴纳他们该死的费用。
This is why I have long-felt that basic economics should be taught as a compulsory GCSE. It affects everything and hardly anyone actually understand the fundamentals.
Interest rate induced recessions don’t necessarily have an enormous effect on the quality of life of the masses.
They have a massive effect on loan-driven spending but most companies can survive 1 year of higher interest rates. Fixed-rate mortgages shield people from higher rates as long as they’re short-lived etc. Actually the people that feel it the most are those that want to take expensive leases, buy second properties or make leveraged investments (i.e. the rich).
What does have a profound and long-lasting impact on lives is a lengthy period of semi-high interest rates and stagnated growth. If it goes on for years, fixed-rate mortgages are no longer a shield. People do actually start going into negative equity and losing their homes (see 80s for an example). Businesses burn all their cash reserves and go under which puts people out of jobs.
The absolute worst thing a central bank can do is react slow and moderately. Unfortunately, the selfish, incompetent fucks that govern our country influence them far too much.
这就是为什么我一直认为，基础经济学应该作为普通中等教育证书的必修课来教授。它影响到一切，但几乎没有人真正理解其基本原理。
利率引发的衰退未必会对大众的生活质量产生巨大影响。
它们对贷款驱动的支出有巨大的影响，但大多数公司可以在高利率下撑过一年。固定利率抵押贷款保护人们不受更高利率的影响，只要它们是短期的等等。实际上，感受最深的是那些想要昂贵租赁、购买第二套房产或进行杠杆投资的人（即富人）。
真正对生活产生深远而持久影响的是长时间的半高利率和增长停滞。如果这种情况持续数年，固定利率抵押贷款将不再是一个盾牌。人们一定会开始陷入负资产，失去他们的房子（80年代就是例子）。企业会耗尽所有的现金储备，然后破产，这将导致人们失业。
央行能做的最糟糕的事情就是反应缓慢而适度。不幸的是，统治我们国家的那些自私、无能的混蛋对他们的影响太大了。
Maybe we shouldn't purely look at neoliberal solutions to economic problems? Neoliberalism is clearly an abject failure for the working class.
也许我们不应该只看经济问题的新自由主义解决方案？对于工人阶级来说，新自由主义显然是一个可悲的失败。