德国陷入衰退 - 对印度有何影响?这是好消息还是坏消息?
Germany Falls into Recession | How will this impact India? Is it good news or bad news?
译文简介
网友：一些经济学家预测，美国和欧洲部分地区可能在2023年的一段时间内陷入衰退。全球经济衰退(定义为全球年人均收入的收缩)更为罕见，因为中国和新兴市场的增长速度往往高于发达经济体。从本质上讲，如果经济增长落后于人口增长，世界经济将被视为衰退。
正文翻译
Germany Falls into Recession | How will this impact India? Is it good news or bad news?
德国陷入衰退——对印度有何影响?这是好消息还是坏消息?
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Some economists have projected that both the U.S. and parts of Europe could slip into a recession for a portion of 2023. A global recession, defined as a contraction in annual global per capita income, is more rare because China and emerging markets often grow faster than more developed economies. Essentially the world economy is considered to be in recession if economic growth falls behind population growth.
一些经济学家预测，美国和欧洲部分地区可能在2023年的一段时间内陷入衰退。全球经济衰退(定义为全球年人均收入的收缩)更为罕见，因为中国和新兴市场的增长速度往往高于发达经济体。从本质上讲，如果经济增长落后于人口增长，世界经济将被视为衰退。
My main concern now is how can we generate more revenue? I can't afford to see my savings crumble to dust.
我现在最关心的是如何创造更多的收入？我不能看着我的积蓄化为乌有。
Kudos to this government and its policies...U hate or love this government but u can't ignore it's achievement...Many more to come...
向这个政府和它的政策致敬——你可以讨厌或喜欢这个政府，但你不能忽视它的成就以及后面的更多成就。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
All of us need to work hard
我们所有人都需要努力工作
India is growing at very fast rate no chance of recession thanks to govt but still our GDP is smaller than that of Germany
多亏了政府，印度正以非常快的速度增长，没有衰退的可能，但我们的GDP仍然比德国小
i accept that there is development under current government but at the same time many wrong decisions taken by the gov cannot be ignored and the current gov doesn't care for corruption as well as lives of soldiers (when we got to know about the mistakes and ignorance of the authorities while transporting army men leading to pulwama attack) Overall we should not be one sided be it mindlessly worshipping a politician or hating them but rather think about who will benefit from each scheme and is it the necessity of the moment for the nation or just spending money mindless for the sake of benefitting from corruption
我承认在现任政府的领导下，印度有所有发展，但与此同时，政府做出的许多错误决定是不容忽视的，现任政府既不关心腐败，也不关心士兵的生命（当我们了解到当局在运送军人时犯下的错误和无知导致了2019年2月14日，印控克什米尔Pulwama地区发生了恐怖袭击事件）。总的来说，我们不应该盲目地崇拜或憎恨政治家，而是要考虑谁将从每个计划中受益，这对国家来说是必要的，只是为了从腐败中获益而盲目地花钱。
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Europe must choose side - Negatively Engaging in trade wars and sanctions.... or positively engage with rising Economies like India ??
欧洲必须选择立场：是消极地参与贸易战争和制裁，还是积极融入印度等新兴经济体。
They can't choose, they don't have independent foreign policy..They all r pitthu of USA.
他们不能选择，他们没有独立的外交政策，他们都是美国的傀儡。
If recession hit Europe and USA, there is a strong possibility our IT sector will suffer due to low demand of software. Service sector is still largest of India's export, that's why our overall export will also shrink ??
如果欧洲和美国出现经济衰退，我们的信息技术(IT)行业很有可能因软件需求减少而受到影响。服务业仍然是印度最大的出口部门，这就是为什么我们的整体出口也会萎缩的原因?
I work in IT, it could be appraisal might be on hold, but business needs to run, servers will be kept running and those will require manpower, I see less Impact, but new projects might be on hold.
我在IT部门工作，评估可能会暂停，但业务需要运行，服务器将保持运行，这将需要人力，我认为影响较小，但新项目可能会暂停。
LITERALLY IT SECTOR IS SUFFERING A LOT AND ESPECIALLY FOR FRESHERS WHO ARE SEARCHING FOR JOBS I MEAN COMPANIES HAVE STOPPED HIRING SINCE 2022
IT行业真正受到了很大的影响，特别是对于那些正在找工作的应届毕业生来说，我的意思是，自2022年以来，公司已经停止招聘。
They outsource their software, they are already getting more for what they pay. In fact this might even positively effect us since more of the work will get outsourced and more layoff would be on the way since foreign labour is not cheap.
他们外包他们的软件服务，他们已经得到了更多的回报。事实上，这甚至可能对我们产生积极影响，因为更多的工作将被外包，而且由于外国劳动力不便宜，将会有更多的裁员。
I don't think so, or the contrary, I think it could rise in India because hiring engineers in India is still cheaper than hiring from EU and US. That means when forming teams for any new project, more engineers will be hired from India and mostly architects from the US and EU will be hired as they have full knowledge on the architecture of what software they want to build or what services they want to use like AWS,Cloud,Databricks,etc.
我不这么认为，或者会出现相反的情况，我认为印度的成本可能会上升，因为在印度招聘工程师仍然比从欧盟和美国招聘便宜。 这意味着在为任何新项目组建团队时，将从印度招聘更多的工程师，将从美国和欧盟招聘大部分架构师，因为他们对他们想要构建的软件的架构或他们想要使用的服务(如亚马逊网络服务,云、大数据等)有充分的了解。
As someone working in the IT sector, it won't have immediate impact us as most of the MNCs have pre-bookings for next 12-18 months.
Many companies are diversifying their base outside of US and Europe. Markets like Canada, Australia,New Zealand, Africa , South East Asia ,etc.
Don't worry Tech is big and is going to be even bigger.
作为在IT行业工作的人，它不会立即对我们产生影响，因为大多数跨国公司都有未来12-18个月的预订。
许多公司正在美国和欧洲以外实现基地多元化：加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰、非洲、东南亚等市场。
别担心，科技已经很强大了，而且还会变得更强大。
Surely, but it'll be temporary only. If American and European IT giants fall, then other companies will replace them. If there is a gap, it will be filled. If there is a demand, there will be supply. Ofc, it all still depends on how quick on our feats we are. This could be a chance to overthrow their dominance itself. Remember, most of the IT giants dont 'manufacture' stuff, that's why other alternatives will come up easy.
当然，但这只是暂时的。如果美国和欧洲的IT巨头倒下，那么其他公司将会取而代之。如果有空白，它将被填补。有需求，就会有供给。当然，这一切还是取决于我们的速度。这可能是一个推翻他们统治的机会。记住，大多数IT巨头不“制造”东西，这就是为什么其他替代选择会很容易出现的原因。
The economic war against Russia and the obsession with the green agenda are showing great results for Germany??, keep up the good work!
对俄罗斯的经济战和对环保议程的痴迷给德国带来了巨大的成果，继续努力!
In these difficult times when world is going towards recession, Thank God that we have a govt working for the progress of the country ????
在世界走向衰退的困难时期，感谢上帝，我们有一个为国家进步而努力的政府
i was listening this word( world leader) from 2005 and now its 2023. almost 18 years nothing is changed. although to getting goods job and food is harder to get as times progresses.
我从2005年开始听这个词(世界领导人)，现在是2023年。差不多18年了，什么都没有改变。尽管时代在发展，但是商品、工作和食物越来越难获得。
@nikhiltiwari4435 Then you have no talent in understanding politics. India has been emerging as a global leader since PM Modi came in power. Now idk what you understand by this term but it doesn't mean our country will not have any problems all of a sudden. Even USA faces so many issues, people live hard lives there as well. Global leader is just about being able to influence Geopolitics very strongly. India being able to stand tall during Ukrainian war alone tells you how much stronger our position is geopolitically right now.
那你就没有理解政治的天赋。自莫迪总理执政以来，印度一直在成为全球领导者。现在我想知道你对这个词的理解，但这并不意味着我们的国家不会突然出现任何问题。即使是美国也面临非常多的问题，那里的人们也艰难求生。全球领导者就是能够对地缘政治产生非常强烈的影响。印度能够在乌克兰战争中屹立不倒，这说明我们现在的地缘政治地位有多强大。
@nikhiltiwari4435 Also we haven't become a global leader YET. We are just emerging as a potential global leader. By the time we become a gpobal leader, a lot of our issues will be resolved as well imo.
此外，我们还没有成为全球领导者。我们刚刚成为潜在的全球领导者。在我看来，当我们成为全球领导者的时候，我们的许多问题也将得到解决。
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@fenris4760 i think you are from politics party or nepotism product. you don't know what is the struggle. if you born in general middle class family you know how hard life it is.and listen to me Common people don't care about geopolitical or gdp.
我认为你是来自政党或裙带关系的产物。你不知道什么是挣扎求生。如果你出生在普通的中产阶级家庭，你就会知道生活有多艰难。听我说，普通人不关心地缘政治或GDP。
@nikhiltiwari4435 Lmao. Dude you cannot be more wrong. I'm from lower middle class family, and im from general category as well. And did i not say that Global Leader is only about geopolitics? Yes it wont solve a lot of issues for us ppl but i just wanted to say that your attack is misdirected.
Also GDP effects us, since it is basically the sum of all our incomes in a way, if it is really high, we can expect to live much better lives. Still, its not a surety, cuz even USA sucks. At the end, for ppl like us, only hard work and being smart will work.
I think the difference in us two is that even though i am from a poor family, i hope to improve my and my family's life by wokring harder and smarter than the rest. I dont just wanna blame the govt, its not my caretaker. My life is my own.
笑死我了。老兄，你大错特错了。我来自中下阶层家庭，也属于普通阶层。我不是说过“全球领导者”只关乎地缘政治吗?是的，这不会为我们解决很多问题，但我只是想说，你的攻击举动是错误的。
GDP也影响着我们，因为它基本上是我们所有人收入的总和，如果它真的很高，我们就能过上更好的生活。尽管如此，这并不是一个保证，因为即使是美国也很糟糕。最后，对于像我们这样的人来说，只有努力工作和变得聪明才能成功。
我认为我们俩的不同之处在于，尽管我来自一个贫穷的家庭，但我希望通过比其他人更努力、更聪明的工作来改善我和我家人的生活。我完全不想责怪政府，它不是我的守护者。我的生活是我自己的。
@nikhiltiwari4435 Also, if you REALLY wanna know some benefits for the common person from India being a strong Geopolitical power, then I'll give a very simple example. Petrol and Diesel Prices. They didn't shoot up during the Russian Ukrainian war. Most of us common ppl would've suffered due to that. But we didn't. Why? Cuz India was strong on a global front.
There are a lot more benefits, which are very long term and far sighted. But i doubt you'll understand a lot of it, since you only wanna know about how it all will benefit you IMMEDIATELY.
You have Semiconductor setups starting in India, many of the big MNCs setting up bases in India and leaving China, which will bring tons of employment. You have us decreasing our reliance on Imports and creating new markets for export, which means our products will see a growth in demand, which means more employment and money for the common ppl only.
All of these are very far sighted. And you wont even notice them when they are in front of you. But Geopolitics is just one part of what the govt does after all, there are many more things which are becoming better.
But remember, govt cannot spoonfeed us. Its not SUPPOSED to spoon feed us. Why should it spoonfeed us? A govt is only to ensure we ppl can do stuff we wanna do without many issues, it is only there to build and maintain that infrastructure and frxwork. It is still we who need to be capable benefit from it all.
此外，如果你真的想知道印度作为一个强大的地缘政治大国对普通人有什么好处，那么我给你举一个非常简单的例子。汽油和柴油价格在俄乌战争期间没有迅速抬升。世界上大多数普通人都会因此而受苦。但我们没有，为什么？因为印度在全球范围内都很强大。
还有更多的好处，这些好处是非常长远和有远见的。但我怀疑你会否理解很多，因为你只想知道这一切将如何立即让你受益。
印度开始具备半导体公司，许多大型跨国公司在印度设立基地，并离开中国，这将带来大量就业机会。你让我们减少了对进口的依赖，并为出口创造了新的市场，这意味着我们的产品需求将会增长，这意味着普通民众获得更多的就业机会和钱。
所有这些都是很长远的益处。当它们在你面前时，你甚至不会注意到这些。但地缘政治只是政府工作的一部分，还有更多的事情正在变得更好。
但请记住，政府不能用勺子喂我们，也不应该用勺子喂养我们。为什么要用勺子喂养？政府只是为了确保我们人民可以做我们想做的事情，而不会面临很多问题，它只是为了建立和维护基础设施和框架。要从这一切中受益，我们仍然需要自己具备能力才行。
@fenris4760 you are very optimistic about the future but rich people kids obtained all resources from poor people and getting richer. and we work like a slave 12 to 15 hour for 10to15k. just look the population people live every where in the forest to Himalaya. we sooner become the topper of crime and polluting.
你对未来非常乐观，但我认为人们来了又走，但富人的孩子从穷人那里获得了所有资源，并变得更加富有。而我们像奴隶一样工作12到15个小时，每月只得1万到1.5万（卢比）的收入。看看人口数量，从森林到喜马拉雅山，到处都住着人。我们很快就会成为犯罪和污染方面的领头羊。
@nikhiltiwari4435 I'm not that optimistic. Its just that India is an open market, many of richest ppl in the world didnt have squally rich parents. I might fail or succeed but its true that everyone has that kinda opportunity. The rich exploit the poor, which needs to change. But it wont change unless someone poor grows powerful and works for it. For the govt, ppl working 12 hrs and getting 15k a month is very nice compared to those who are unemployed.
Also population you cant blame the govt. Blame the ppl. And its not like you can just decrease the population easily. Overpopulation and underpopulation are both srs issues. Crime rates are decreasing in states like UP which has been a very poor state, why? Because govt is doing its work properly there. Pollution, we guys are at the forefront of the fight against that. 50% of our energy needs are from green and renewable sources. PM Modi govt aims to make india a net zero country by 2050, but as we are going, the govt as already done more than it aimed to achieve by 2023, so we might become net zero before 2050. Just check the global carbon emission amount by countries. You'll see that China and India both combined still are miniscule in front of the 'developed' countries.
我没那么乐观。只是印度是一个开放的市场，世界上许多最富有的人都没有极其富有的父母。我可能会失败，也可能成功，但每个人都有这样的机会。富人剥削穷人，这需要改变。但它不会改变，除非穷人变得强大并为之努力。对政府来说，与那些失业的人相比，人们工作12小时，每月拿1.5万卢比已经很不错了。
还有人口，你不能怪政府，要怪人民。这并不是说你可以轻易地减少人口。人口过剩和人口不足都是严重的问题。像北方邦这样一个非常贫穷的邦的犯罪率正在下降，为什么？因为政府在那里做得很好。至于污染，我们站在对抗污染的最前线。我们50%的能源需求来自环保和可再生能源。莫迪总理的目标是到2050年使印度成为碳方面净零排放国家，但随着我们的发展，政府已经超额完成2023年的目标工作，所以我们可能会在2050年之前实现净零排放。看看各国的全球碳排放量就知道了。你会发现，在发达国家面前，中国和印度（碳排放）加起来仍然微不足道。
@fenris4760 this debate will never end. hope you achieve what you want. but my life is ruined.
这场辩论永远不会结束。希望你能如愿以偿。但是我的生活被毁了。
@nikhiltiwari4435 No one is ruined bro. You dont know what in the future. Keep hoping. I know its hard to keep your hopes up when you meet with failure again and again, and when you dont see a way out, but its our job to hope and try our best.
And thank, i wanna work to solve a lot of the common people's issues, i hope I'll be able to do something, even if its little, to atleast allow other ppl like me to have hope.
没有人被毁了，兄弟。你不知道将来会发生什么，保持希望就好。我知道，当你一次又一次地遭遇失败，看不到出路时，你很难保持希望，但我们就是要尽最大努力抱有希望。
谢谢，我想努力解决很多普通人的问题，我希望我能做点什么，即使是一点点也行，至少让其他像我一样的人有希望。
India is on the way to be an economic superpower
印度正在成为一个经济超级大国
After reading the news about this I was eagerly waiting for this video. And Dhawan sir never disappoints.
看了这则新闻后，我急切地等待着这个视频。而达万( Dhawan)先生从不让人失望。
Because he believed in the wisdom of dharma.. Without peace no one can achieve prosperity
因为他相信佛法的智慧。没有和平，谁也无法实现繁荣
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As per my knowledge (or I would say based on my basic knowledge of geopolitics which I have gained watching PD sir video), US is already facing Debt Crisis, UK's economy is in trouble, Germany is in recession and with further economic issues, Russia is going to be the ultimate winner of this ????-???? war..
Europe will turn its back on USA and will start engaging with Russia(and China).. It's just a matter of time..
据我所知(或者我想说，基于我在看博主视频时获得的地缘政治基础知识)，美国已经面临债务危机，英国经济陷入困境，德国陷入衰退，随着进一步的经济问题，俄罗斯将成为俄乌战争的最大赢家。
欧洲将背弃美国，并开始与俄罗斯(和中国)接触，这只是时间问题。
well for now the war is in a stalemate and no one knows for now that who will win
现在战争陷入僵局，没有人知道谁会赢
Most of our IT service and agriculture export are in asian , african countries and latin America than European so i think (not sure) it will cause negative effect in india in these sector...
我们的大部分IT服务和农业出口都是在亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲，而不是欧洲，所以我认为(不确定)这将对印度的这些行业会否造成负面影响。
Every country integrated with world economy goes through a cycle of Economic Boom - Economic Recession. India cannot stay insulated from this for long, and forever, as we grow and integrate more tightly with global economy and supply chain.
每一个融入世界经济的国家都会经历经济繁荣-经济衰退的周期。随着我们与全球经济和供应链的发展和融合越来越紧密，印度不可能长期、永远地与之隔绝。
We are in recession too. I don't care about statistics, but our markets are seeing less and less customers. We have never seen such recession in India. 2008 was much better.
我们也处于衰退之中。我不在乎统计数据，但我们市场的顾客越来越少了。我们从未见过印度出现这样的衰退，2008年时的情况都要好得多。
True
没错
The fact that trade protection hurts the economy of the country that imposes it is one of the oldest but still most startling insights economics has to offer.
贸易保护会损害实施国的经济，这一事实是经济学提供的最古老、但仍最令人吃惊的洞见之一。jagdish bhagwati
India is a blessed nation bcoz of it's multi cultures
And whenever recession try to hit India
People buy things in bulks on the occasion of festivals
So if demand increase recession would vanish by itself
印度是一个幸运的国家，因为它有多元文化；每当经济衰退试图袭击印度时，人们会在逢年过节期间成批地买东西，因此，如果需求增加，衰退将自行消失
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Germany fall into recession but Germany never fall in it's hypocrisy
德国是陷入衰退，但德国从未陷入虚伪之中
The thing is Germany are Hypocrites only in Geopolitics not like day to day life .
问题是德国人只是地缘政治方面的伪君子，而日常生活中不是伪君子。
"A country's strength is not measured by its wealth or military power, but by the health and happiness of its people." - Bhutanese proverb
“一个国家的实力不是由它的财富或军事力量来衡量的，而是由它的人民的健康和幸福来衡量的。”——不丹谚语
There are gonna be negative impacts on Indian economy as well specially on the software industry if recession occurs in Europe and US.
如果欧洲和美国出现衰退，印度经济也会受到负面影响，尤其是软件业。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
But it's effecting Indian IT sector drastically. Hope situation will improve soon.
但这对印度IT行业产生了巨大影响，希望情况很快会好转。
India has huge dependency on US market as IT exports. This is dark time for Indian IT sector
印度在IT出口方面严重依赖美国市场，这是印度IT行业的黑暗时刻
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I am amazed how Narendra Modi and His Great Team has Managed all the things , India is the lowest when it comes to recession it's Remarkable ?? Jai Hind ????????
我很惊讶纳伦德拉·莫迪和他的伟大团队是如何管理所有事情的，印度在经济衰退方面是最低的，这很了不起，印度必胜。
I am worried about the massive unemployment that this recession will create in India. Our IT sector and business services sector are going to hit really hard by recession and AI. Currently, we are not able to produce enough jobs in India. Also I think this data may not be correct. It somehow seems impossible that we are isolated from West.
我担心这次经济衰退将在印度造成大规模失业。我们的IT部门和商业服务部门将受到经济衰退和人工智能的严重打击。目前，我们无法在印度创造足够的就业机会。我也认为这个数据可能不正确。我们似乎不可能与西方隔绝。
I don't know why but I am feeling so relaxed and relieved after hearing this :)
I guess just weeks ago they were constantly making comments on India and dictating us, now it's better for them to look into their own country :))))))
我不知道为什么，听到这个后，我感到很放松和宽慰
我猜是因为就在几周前，他们还在不停地对印度发表评论，对我们发号施令，现在他们最好看看自己的国家
Maintenance of stable food supply and food prices is critical to cushion any bad effects of recession in other countries
维持稳定的粮食供应和粮食价格对于缓冲来自其他国家经济衰退的不利影响至关重要
"In geopolitics, there's no permanent friend & enemy, only interests matter".
“在地缘政治中，没有永远的朋友和敌人，只有永远的利益”。
Blessed to be living in country like India?
有幸生活在印度这样的国家
India should focus and I think we are focusing on Africa it will be giant market place.
印度应该聚焦，我认为我们正在关注非洲，那里将是一个巨大的市场。
Thank you sir!
For giving us authentic news.??????
谢谢先生你给我们带来真实的新闻。
If the speed of development remain same , and give more amount of jobs then surely india will be best in world ??
如果发展速度保持不变，并提供更多的就业机会，那么印度肯定会成为世界上最好的
India should be alx & focus on Energy security front other sectors can certainly be taken care of !
印度应该提高警惕，关注能源安全，其他领域当然可以得到照顾!
The global recession would hit us negatively for example people in IT and related fields are seeing lay offs in India because the projects or company of foreign origin don't have enough profit to sustain every employee.
It will create joblessness
全球经济衰退会给我们带来负面影响，例如，印度IT和相关领域的人正在裁员，因为外国项目或公司没有足够的利润来维持每个员工的生计。
这将造成失业。
No 100% true.
Yes, it will effect India but in both ways.
U give IT sector as an example. This layoff trend is more common in west than in India. Becoz labour cost is more there compared to India.
It may be positive for India. Becoz IT sector just doesn't closed down overnight. It needs to keep working only change will be they will divert their source to low cost one.
Same happened in early 2000s something when IT just started growing in India. To save money Americans started outsourcing from India .
China story is same, west made factory there becoz labour cost was cheap there.
And India economy can still survive becoz it's majorly depended on internal consumption
I just mean to say that we r not going to in recession becoz our economy is still not heavily dependent on other market like other western countries. And thanks to Indian policy of buying Russian cheap oil we are still good to go.
不是100%正确的。
是的，这将影响印度，但是两方面的。
你以IT行业为例。这种裁员趋势在西方比在印度更普遍。因为那里的劳动力成本比印度高。
这可能对印度有利。因为IT行业不会在一夜之间倒闭。它需要继续运行，唯一的变化是他们会把资源转移到低成本的地方。
同样的事情发生在21世纪初，当时印度的IT刚刚开始发展。为了省钱，美国人开始将业务外包给印度。
中国的故事也是一样，西方在那里建厂，因为那里的劳动力成本便宜。
印度经济仍然可以存续，因为它主要依赖国内消费。
我只是想说，我们不会陷入衰退，因为我们的经济仍然不像其他西方国家那样严重依赖其他市场。多亏了印度购买俄罗斯廉价石油的政策，我们仍然可以继续发展经济。