The world is changing. Geopolitics, economics, technology, climate, public health and demographics are all shifting, triggering huge uncertainties. A new world order is taking shape and China’s rise to become a major economic power is a key driver behind the tectonic shifts.

世界在变化。地缘政治、经济、技术、气候、公共卫生和人口结构都在发生变化，引发了巨大的不确定性。一个新的世界秩序正在形成，中国崛起为一个主要的经济大国是这种结构性转变背后的关键驱动力。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Business decision-makers are baffled by the myriad of questions they need to answer. Is deglobalisation for real or will globalisation, albeit in a different form, continue to prevail and even grow? Is decoupling feasible? If yes, to what extent will it happen and how long will it last? How will new technologies change the way businesses are run? Too many questions, too few answers.

商业决策者被他们需要回答的无数问题所困扰。去全球化会成功，还是全球化(尽管以不同的形式)会继续盛行甚至发展?脱钩可行吗?如果是这样，会发生到什么程度，会持续多久?新技术将如何改变企业的运营方式?问题太多，答案太少。

China is at the centre of these questions and, by association, the possible answers. Businesses that engage across borders need to consider China’s growing influence when formulating their strategies.

中国处于这些问题的中心，并由此联想到可能的答案。跨国企业在制定战略时需要考虑中国日益增长的影响力。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


China’s expanding influence has manifested itself in several ways, including the deal it brokered between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the role it is playing in pushing for peace between Russia and Ukraine, and the leadership it is providing in regional blocs such as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. On May 19, China and five Central Asian countries signed a landmark declaration agreeing to build a community with a shared future.

中国不断扩大的影响力体现在几个方面，包括它在伊朗和沙特阿拉伯之间斡旋达成的协议，它在推动俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的和平中发挥的作用，以及它在金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)和上海合作组织(sco)等地区集团中发挥的领导作用。5月19日，中国与中亚五国签署了具有里程碑意义的构建命运共同体宣言。

China continues to be a major contributor to global economic growth and is a major trading partner to most countries in the world. Technological innovations in China will continue to advance across many areas such as fintech, new energy, renewables, intelligent manufacturing and life sciences, using key technologies such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, quantum computing and new materials. Progress will also be made in high-end chips, and many suspect that US sanctions may not be sustainable.

中国仍然是世界经济增长的主要贡献者，也是世界上大多数国家的主要贸易伙伴。中国的科技创新将继续在金融科技、新能源、可再生能源、智能制造和生命科学等多个领域推进，利用人工智能、区块链、量子计算和新材料等关键技术。高端芯片也将取得进展，许多人怀疑美国的制裁可能无法持续。

Obviously, the possibility of negative scenarios exist. An extreme case would be an all-out military conflict or complete decoupling. While we shouldn’t totally rule these out, they are unlikely in the near term. As such, global businesses need to seriously contemplate their strategies for the emerging world order, which may arrive a lot sooner than expected.

显然，负面情况的可能性是存在的。一种极端情况是全面军事冲突或完全脱钩。虽然我们不应该完全排除这些可能性，但短期内不太可能。因此，全球企业需要认真考虑它们应对新兴世界秩序的战略，这种秩序可能比预期来得早得多。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


In this new world order, China is likely to play a key role. The International Monetary Fund expects China to contribute 22.6 per cent of world economic growth over the next five years. Two key “discontinuities” took place recently. In 2021, the combined gross domestic product of BRICS nations exceeded that of the G7 countries on a purchasing power parity basis while, in the first four months of this year, China’s exports to belt and road countries exceeded its exports to the US, Europe and Japan combined.

在这个新的世界秩序中，中国可能会发挥关键作用。国际货币基金组织(imf)预计，未来5年中国将对全球经济增长做出22.6%的贡献。最近发生了两个关键的“不相关的事件”。
2021年，按购买力平价计算，金砖国家的国内生产总值(gdp)总和超过七国集团(G7);今年1 - 4月，中国对“一带一路”国家的出口超过对美欧日出口的总和。

Although labour-intensive supply chains have been migrating out of China for well over 15 years, new supply chains of more sophisticated products, such as new energy vehicles, renewable energy equipment and electrical instruments, have also emerged. The yuan is playing an increasingly significant role in global financial settlements, driving a recalibration of the US dollar’s dominance.

尽管劳动密集型供应链已经向海外转移了15年以上，但新能源汽车、可再生能源设备和电气仪器等更复杂产品的新供应链也已经出现。人民币在全球金融结算中发挥着越来越重要的作用，推动了美元主导地位的重新调整。

It is critical for carmakers to have an effective presence in China because cutting-edge innovations in electric vehicles, including intelligent and connected car designs, are happening there. Competition from local Chinese companies is stiff but not being in China can lead to a company being marginalised over time. Ford Motor Company’s CEO Jim Farley recently underscored China’s superiority in EVs, battery technology and intelligent connectivity for vehicles; for Ford, staying in China has become an imperative.

对于汽车制造商来说，有效地在中国开展业务至关重要，因为电动汽车的尖端创新，包括智能和联网汽车设计，正在中国发生。来自中国本土企业的竞争很激烈，但随着时间的推移，不在中国的企业可能会被边缘化。福特汽车公司(Ford Motor Company)首席执行官吉姆·法利(Jim Farley)最近强调了中国在电动汽车、电池技术和汽车智能连接方面的优势;对福特来说，留在中国已成为必然选项。

For semiconductor firms, pulling out of the China market can hurt long-term competitiveness significantly; US sanctions are twisting the economic logic of this industry. Both Intel’s CEO Pat Gelsinger and Nvidia Corp’s CEO Jensen Huang have recently indicated that the Chinese market is crucial and hard to replace.

对于半导体公司来说，退出中国市场可能会严重损害其长期竞争力;美国的制裁正在扭曲该行业的经济逻辑。英特尔首席执行长格尔辛格(Pat Gelsinger)和英伟达(Nvidia Corp .)首席执行长黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)最近都表示，中国市场至关重要，难以取代。

When Tesla’s Elon Musk and JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon made their high-profile visits to China recently, they were sending a strong message on behalf of major US businesses and the finance community that engagement with China was a priority.

最近，当特斯拉(Tesla)的埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)和摩根大通(JP Morgan)的杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)高调访问中国时，他们代表美国主要企业和金融界发出了一个强烈的信息，即与中国接触是最好的选择。

The middle class is growing not only in China but also in many other countries in the Global South. In Asean alone, the middle class is expected to double by 2030, growing to 334 million. While one should not discount Western countries, the geographical distribution of demand for consumer products, food and agricultural products, vehicles, smart devices, pharmaceuticals, industrial products, financial services, and travel and tourism is going to change enormously in the coming years.

中产阶级不仅在中国，而且在全世界南半球国家的许多国家也在增长。预计到2030年，仅在东盟，中产阶级人数就将翻一番，达到3.34亿人。虽然我们不应轻视西方国家，但在未来几年，消费品、食品和农产品、汽车、智能设备、药品、工业产品、金融服务、旅游和旅游业的需求地理分布将发生巨大变化。

The growing role of China and other major nations in the Global South implies that the supply side will also become more competitive as companies from these countries offer better value than that which the West is accustomed to providing.

中国和其他主要国家在南半球国家的作用越来越大，这意味着供应方也将变得更具竞争力，因为来自这些国家的公司提供的价值比西方国家习惯提供的价值更高。

Business decision-makers need to sort out what is fluff and what is real. When some people say “de-risking”, they imply that China is risky. That may be so, to a certain extent. But the real risk will come from a misreading of what is happening on the larger scale and on a wider horizon.

商业决策者需要区分哪些是假的，哪些是真的。有些人说“去风险”，其实是在暗示中国存在风险。在某种程度上，也许是这样。但真正的风险将来自对更大范围和更广范围内正在发生的事情的误读。

Despite short-term turbulence, the world will continue to grow, especially in the Global South. Global growth patterns will shift, often in a discontinuous manner. Global business leaders must reimagine the world of the future and plan their strategies against the backdrop of such a vision.

世界尽管有短期动荡不安，但将继续增长，尤其是在世界南方国家。世界增长模式将发生转变，而且往往是跳跃式的。世界商业领袖必须重新构想未来的世界，并在这种愿景的背景下规划自己的战略。