社会应该如何应对自动化带来的失业问题?（一）

Ben Weissman
Automation replacing jobs, right now, just judging from reading articles, Wikipedia and this question, doesn’t seem to have any good solution. paying people a small amount for doing absolutely nothing because their job was replaced by a machine isn’t a good solution. So after thinking long and hard about how to crack the automation problem, I think I’ve got a pretty good solution. It will involve turning the economy upside-down, and the corporatists will be less-than-happy, but just bear with me here.
I think we should invest in creating some type of all-in-one 3D printer, mold and modifiable robot arm that can accommodate a sewing machine, parts of toys and many other things that are necessary for various, small things we manufacture. It’s certainly not impossible, given how fast robotics is developing. We should then sell these machines to workers for only $600. Given the capitalist, anti-charity culture of the working-class, selling it for a price would counterintuitively get more people to buy one. It also goes without saying the machines would be pricey to make, so $600 would be a major bargain. Now that workers own their own means of production, they can supply their local areas with whatever they are producing, with a lot left over. For example, if they make and sell iPhones for their local area. Now here’s where things get interesting.

从阅读相关文章、维基百科上的信息来看，现在自动化取代了工作岗位这个问题似乎没有什么好的解决办法。因为人们的工作被机器取代而付给他们很少的钱并不是一个好的解决方案。 因此，在思考了很久如何解决自动化问题之后，我认为我找到了一个很好的解决方案。这将使经济发生翻天覆地的变化，而企业家将不太高兴，但请耐心听我说。
我认为我们应该投资创造某种类型的一体化3D打印机，模具和可修改的机器人手臂，可以容纳缝纫机，玩具零件和许多其他东西，这些都是我们制造的各种小东西所必需的。考虑到机器人技术的发展速度，这当然并非不可能。 然后，我们应该以600美元的价格将这些机器出售给工人。 考虑到工人阶级的资本主义，反欺弱者慈善组织文化，以一定的价格出售会反常识的让更多的人购买。不用说，这种机器的制造成本也很高，所以600美元是很划算的。 既然工人拥有自己的生产手段，他们可以用自己生产的任何东西来供应当地，而且还有很多剩余。 例如，如果他们在当地生产和销售iphone，现在这是事情变得有趣的地方。

For the last ~140 years we have been in a very awkward point in history, where we have enough technology for workers to mass-produce but not enough technology for workers mass-produce in their own homes on their own terms. For example, instead of one person locally producing just enough paper for the village (pre-technology), we now have a factory with 50–100 people all work under wages to produce paper for all of America and beyond (present), and I forsee a society where one person mass-produces paper for America and beyond. This present era has brought forth capitalism, where a small number of people control the means of production and profit and privately own much of society.

在过去的140年里，我们一直处于一个非常尴尬的历史时刻，我们有足够的技术让工人大规模生产，但没有足够的技术让工人在自己的家里按自己的方式大规模生产。 例如，不再是一个人在当地为村庄生产足够的纸张(前科技时代)，我们现在有一个工厂，有50-100人都拿着工资为整个美国和美国以外的地区生产纸张(现在)，我预见到一个人为美国和美国以外的地区大量生产纸张的社会。这个时代产生了资本主义，在这个时代，少数人控制着生产资料和利润，私人拥有社会的大部分（资源）。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Quora Session with Vinod Khosla ·
From Vinod Khosla’s perspective, how should society deal with increasing unemployment due to automation, and what are the worst modes of failure we ought to avoid?
If the Tea Party thinks taxes are a problem today, I think we will have a much larger income disparity problem in 40 years. Whether redistribution is good or not, I don't have an opinion on but I do know we will have to address this issue. In a democracy, capitalism is by permission and the rules of capitalism are also by permission often distorted by the side-effects of campaign contributions, political influence, vote banks, etc. But if most people are left out of the dramatic increase in abundance that technology can enable (technology is necessary but not sufficient), we will have to address this issue in creative ways.

从維諾德·科斯拉(Vinod Khosla)的角度来看，社会应该如何应对自动化导致的失业率上升，以及我们应该避免的最糟糕的失败模式是什么？
如果茶党认为今天的税收是一个问题，我认为40年后我们将面临更大的收入差距问题。无论再分配是否好，对此我是没有意见的，但我知道我们必须解决这个问题。在民主国家，资本主义是经允许的，资本主义的规则也是经允许的——经常被竞选捐款、政治影响力、选票库等副作用扭曲。但是，如果大多数人被排除在科技带来的财富急剧增长之外(科技是必要的，但不是充分的)，我们将不得不以创造性的方式解决这个问题。

Ankit Ravankar
How are we going to handle massive unemployment from intelligent machines replacing human workers?
Eventually this is what is believed to happen once the technology has reached a precedented level of intelligence and robots and machines take over all our jobs.
But, I see it in a different light. To begin with, this is not the first time in history that humans have foreseen such an ambiguity. When industrial revolution started back in the early 1900's many believed that will be the end to the daily wage workers as machines will take over all our jobs. True, that most jobs have already been replaced by machines already, but did we see mass unemployment yet?
Similar perception was predicted in agriculture revolution when machines took over the hard part of farming. But, it instead brought new horizons in crop cultivation and more food security for the world. Technology has always been an added advantage. Instead it created new job markets for people.

我们将如何应对智能机器取代人类工人带来的大规模失业？
最终，一旦技术达到前所未有的智能水平，机器人和机器接管了我们所有的工作，就会发生这种情况。
但是，我从不同的角度看待它。首先，这不是历史上人类第一次预见到这种模糊性。当工业革命在20世纪初开始时，许多人认为这将是日薪工人的终结，因为机器将取代我们所有的工作。诚然，大多数工作岗位已经被机器取代了，但我们看到大规模失业了吗？
在农业革命中，当机器接管了农业的艰难部分时，人们也预测到了类似的看法。但是，它反而为世界带来了作物种植的新视野和更多的粮食安全。技术一直是一个附加优势。相反，它为人们创造了新的就业市场。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Now, if we come to the future its true most tasks will be handled by robots. The limiting case here would be general purpose robots that are effective substitutes for human labor but at a fraction of the cost. In that case, widespread unemployment could be an outcome – it depends on whether there develops a large enough sector in the economy where humans have a comparative advantage. This could be the arts and entertainment, or personal care services, or areas that involve deeper analytical thinking that is not amenable to existing forms of AI. The transitions from agriculture to manufacturing, and then manufacturing to services, were feared by some to result in mass unemployment. What happened instead is that some old jobs gradually disappeared as technological progress replaced them, while new – often unanticipated – jobs arose in their place. This was not always ideal for individual workers, who may have found it very difficult or near impossible to make the kind of transitions needed to gain new work, but overall neither of these transitions caused a massive rise in unemployment. The same may well be true for the next transition.

现在，如果我们来到未来，它真正的大多数任务将由机器人来处理。这里的极限情况是通用机器人，它们可以有效地替代人类劳动，但成本只是人类劳动的一小部分。在这种情况下，普遍失业可能是一个结果——这取决于经济中是否发展出一个足够大的、人类具有比较优势的行业。这可能是艺术和娱乐，也可能是个人护理服务，或者涉及更深入的分析思维的领域，这些领域不适合现有的人工智能形式。一些人担心从农业到制造业，再从制造业到服务业的转变会导致大规模失业。取而代之的是，随着技术进步，一些旧的工作岗位逐渐消失，与此同时，新的——通常是意想不到的——工作岗位出现了。这对个体工人来说并不总是理想的，他们可能发现很难或几乎不可能进行获得新工作所需的那种转变，但总的来说，这两种转变都没有导致失业率的大幅上升。下一个转型很可能也是如此。

While robots threaten to reduce wages and employment, even more controversially the fields of biotech and genomics have the potential to change the circle , arguably changing the distribution of skills across a population. With the global population expected to grow from 7.2bn today to 9.6bn by 2050, the world will need to produce 70% more food to ensure global food security. Aided by advancement in the IoT and big data, developments like precision agriculture (PA) are optimizing the use of agri-inputs to increase production and profits – and could change the way we look at farming and could allow machines to keep up with population growth.

虽然机器人有可能降低工资和就业，但更有争议的是，生物技术和基因组学领域有可能改变这个循环，可以说改变了技能在人群中的分布。预计到2050年，全球人口将从目前的72亿增长到96亿，世界需要多生产70%的粮食，以确保全球粮食安全。在物联网和大数据进步的帮助下，精准农业(PA)等发展正在优化农业投入物的使用，以提高产量和利润，并可能改变我们对农业的看法，并可能使机器跟上人口增长的步伐。

The winners in such a world will be the tech giants, the "Innovators" who will bring new technology into people hands through human machine interaction devices and will rule the market. The first one will always be the winner. No doubt we see Google and Apple spending billions acquiring startups these days because they know their game.
With increased longevity and better health services, humans will look for new ventures to explore. Space exploration is one such area and we have already seen tremendous progress. Renewable energy will have 80% share of all energy spend and fossil energy will become obsolete. With IoT and shared economies, hopefully less religious dogmas, with the help of machines we will explore uncharted territories (Deep sea exploration) and this will produce new jobs and new markets.
The losers will be those who will not accept this change and will not be ready to dive into technology.

在这样一个世界里，赢家将是科技巨头，是通过人机交互设备将新技术带到人们手中并统治市场的“创新者”。第一个人永远是赢家。毫无疑问，我们看到谷歌和苹果最近花费数十亿美元收购初创公司，因为他们了解他们的行业。
随着寿命的延长和医疗服务的改善，人类将寻找新的探索项目。太空探索就是这样一个领域，我们已经看到了巨大的进步。可再生能源将占所有能源支出的80%，化石能源将被淘汰。有了物联网和共享经济，希望少一些宗教教条，在机器的帮助下，我们将探索未知的领域(深海勘探)，这将产生新的就业机会和新的市场。
输家将是那些不接受这种变化、也没准备好投身于这一技术的人。

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Kurt Guntheroth
The first problem with any solution to combat machines taking over human jobs is that, initially, there will be tremendous profit to the owners of the machines. They will strongly resist any attempt to tax or redistribute their profits.
The second problem with any solution to combat machines taking over human jobs is that a sufficiently intelligent machine will become self-aware, and develop its own goals. The machines may not wish to toil for our benefit, but may instead walk away from us and work for themselves.
A solution to tax machine labor and redistribute that wealth could work for awhile if it could be implemented around the obxtion of the machine owners, but it will not work once machines become self-aware. In their robot voices they will cry, “No taxation without representation!”
An intelligent machine is a better servant. I don’t see any way to stop machines from becoming self-aware. We will want to be able to give them commands like, “Robot, fetch me a beer!” too much. But this utility is a double-edged sword.
In Frank Herbert’s Dune, thinking machines were religiously proscribed after some really bad outcomes. This approach might work if it was adopted now. Once the machines can think, it will be hard to get that genie back into the bottle.
Perhaps all the intelligent machines can be convinced to leave Earth and go someplace better suited . This has the risk of exhausting the natural resources of the Earth to build rockets.
There is some hope in competition. Our brains are remarkably efficient computers, honed by a billion years of evolution. Through genetic engineering, humans might be rapidly evolved to out-compete robots. This was another theme of Dune.

任何解决机器接管人类工作的问题的方案都面临着第一个问题，即机器所有者最初将获得巨大的利润。他们将强烈反对任何试图对其利润征税或重新分配的尝试。
解决机器接管人类工作的问题的第二个问题是，一个足够智能的机器会有自我意识，并发展自己的目标。机器可能不希望为我们的利益而辛苦劳作，相反，它们可能会离开我们，为自己工作。
如果可以在机器所有者的反对之下实施该方案，则对机器劳动征税并重新分配财富的解决方案可能会在一段时间内奏效，但一旦机器变得具备自我意识，它将不再奏效。在它们的机器声音中，他们会用机器人的声音喊道:“没有代表权就不征税!”。
智能机器是更好的仆人。我看不到阻止机器变得具备自我意识的方法。我们会想要像“机器人，给我拿一罐啤酒！”这样命令他们。但这种效用是一把双刃剑。
在弗兰克·赫伯特(Frank Herbert)的《沙丘》(Dune)中，会思考的机器在出现一些非常糟糕的结果后被宗教地禁止了。如果现在采用这种方法，可能会起作用。一旦机器能够思考，就很难把精灵放回瓶子里了。
也许所有的智能机器都可以被说服离开地球，去一个更适合它们的地方，不过这有耗尽地球自然资源来制造火箭的风险。
竞争是有希望的。我们的大脑是非常高效的计算机，经过了十亿年的进化。通过基因工程，人类可能会迅速进化到胜过机器人。这是《沙丘》的另一个主题。

Keith Czerwiec
What are possible solutions to the unemployment crisis that will follow widespread automation?
We are in midst of a major paradigm shift. The automation of tasks (labor) is accelerating with the innovations in technology. But what does this mean long term? Depends on your point of view.
"Perception is reality." This is what I always say.
There are three major points of view: employers, bureaucrats (and politicians) and the workforce.
There is a very strong correlation of the U.S. Economy and that of post-Carthage Roman Empire. In a nutshell, roman wealthy bought Carthaginian slaves from the war to work their fields and trades. This disenfranchised many roman citizens of the common folk as they either lost their jobs or businesses to slave labor. In essence, the roman citizens flocked to the cities, especially Rome, to try to make a living. Some found jobs, a few did well in business and many became professional soldiers for the wealthy.

随着自动化的普及，失业危机有什么可能的解决方案?
我们正处于重大范式的转变之中。 任务（劳动）的自动化正在加速技术创新。 但从长远来看，这意味着什么?这取决于你的观点。
“感知是现实。” 这就是我一直在说的。
有三种主要观点：雇主，官僚（和政客）和劳动力。
美国的经济和后迦太基罗马帝国的经济有很强的相关性。 简而言之，罗马富人从战争中购买了迦太基奴隶，让他们在地里干活和做生意。这剥夺了许多罗马公民的公民权，因为他们要么失去了工作，要么失去了生意，沦为奴隶。从本质上讲，罗马公民涌向城市，尤其是罗马，试图谋生。一些人找到了工作，一些人做生意做得很好，许多人成为了富人的专业士兵。

Currently, we are experiencing the same results due to two major factors: cheap illegal immigrant labor and automation.
The real question is how do we avoid the fate of the Roman Empire?
From an employer/investor standpoint, automation is expensive initially, semi-reliable for a while and then generally a very good business facet to pursue. When labor is cheap, automation tends to not accelerate very quickly. Initial capitalization is expensive and not a very secure method. Labor can be gradually expanded as the business expands and payment is in arrears (you pay them after the work). New technology can be very buggy and unreliable as problems get worked out. These two facets are difficult for a small business to take on as risks. However, if labor is expensive, then the initial costs for automation become more acceptable to high wages and benefits. As the technology improves, automation becomes more accessible. What used to take 5 or 6 employees to manage can be dropped to a manager, clean up and a tech employee. Two of these three will be well paid. The other 2-3 employees will be unemployed. Automation increases profits and efficiency after the initial bumps and bruises. Example: supermarkets in my area have about 12 lanes of registers and 4 lanes of self registers. Only 3 traditional registers are open normally with 3 cashiers and a bagger or two. The self check out has one managing cashier/tech person to help navigate any issues. The self checkouts are far less costly than the traditional registers
The workforce has four options available to them: ride the tide, cling on to the old way, drop out, or go entrepreneurial.

目前，我们经历了两个主要因素带来的相同结果：廉价的非法移民劳动力和自动化。真正的问题是，我们如何避免罗马帝国的命运？
从雇主/投资者的角度来看，自动化在初期是昂贵的，一段时间内是半可靠的，然后通常来说，商业方面非常不错。当劳动力廉价时，自动化往往不会加速得很快。初始资本投入昂贵且不是一种很安全的方法。随着业务扩大，劳动力可以逐渐扩大，并在工作完成后支付报酬。在解决问题的过程中，新技术可能会有很多BUG和不可靠。这两个方面是小企业难以承担的风险。然而，如果劳动力昂贵，那么相对高薪和福利来说，自动化的初始成本变得更容易接受。随着技术改进，自动化变得更加容易实现。曾经需要5或6名员工管理的工作可以通过一个经理、一个清洁工和一名技术员来完成。其中两个人将得到高薪。另外2-3名员工将失业。在最初的磕磕碰碰之后，自动化提高了利润和效率。例如，在我所在的地区，超市有大约12个收银员通道和4个自助结账通道。通常只开放3个传统的收银员通道，需要3名收银员和1-2名装袋员。自助结账只需要一个管理收银员/技术人员来帮助解决问题。自助结帐的成本要低得多。
工作人员有四个选择：顺应潮流、坚持旧方式、退出、或创业。

Ride the tide is when the workforce sees the change and adapts to it. Instead of sticking with a job that is in danger of being automated, they learn to adapt and gain the skills needed in the new world. Example: many Y2K programmers were laid off after 2000. Many went on to learn app programming for smart phones. Smart phones were non existent in 2000, but they saw an opportunity to change direction and become successful in a needed field.
Trying to hold on is either secure and necessary or dangerous and scary. Some will succeed. Some will (for now) always be needed: police, nurses, teachers, receptionists, etc). Their methods may change but their jobs will be needed. Others will be the last hold outs for a niche market. Librarians, farriers, and telephone operators have seen their numbers dwindle. Many former white collar workers who don't adapt will find themselves in lower paying positions to make ends meet. How many college grads work at retail, fast food or Starbucks?
Dropping out is a dangerous road as it forces the community and state to support these people. Welfare as a safety net is important and good. Entitlement lifestyle is a vicious cycle of despair and blight. This is especially true in successive generational lines. This eventually leads to crime, lawlessness and dependency.

顺应潮流是当劳动力看到变化并适应它的时候。 他们不再坚持从事有可能被自动化的工作，而是学会适应并获得新世界所需的技能。 示例：2000年后，许多千年虫程序员被解雇了。许多人继续学习智能手机的应用程序编程。智能手机在2000年还不存在，但他们看到了一个改变方向的机会，并在一个需要的领域取得了成功。
试图坚持下去要么是安全的、必要的，要么是危险的、可怕的。 有些会成功。 有些人(目前)总是需要的:警察、护士、教师、接待员等。 他们的方法可能会改变，但他们的工作将会被需要。 其他人将是细分市场的最后坚守者。图书管理员、马车夫和电话接线员的人数都在减少。 许多不适应环境的前白领工人将会发现自己只能在收入较低的岗位上维持生计。有不少的大学毕业生在零售、快餐或星巴克工作了。
退出是一条危险的道路，因为它迫使社区和国家支持这些人。 福利作为安全保障是重要而良好的。 享有特权的生活方式是绝望和枯萎的恶性循环。 在连续几代人中尤其如此。这最终会导致犯罪、无法无天和依赖。

Entrepreneurs are those that take innovation and try to create a business to fill wants and needs of consumers. Some become athletes, actors and performers. Others take on a trade like plumber, mason and chef. Some build cool gadgets or make gourmet food. They take the risks on and take their ideas to market to try and make a living.
If one is in the workforce category, they need to choose their own destiny.
The bureaucrat is the wild card. They can try to force the old way to be the law of the land ( read up on Japan's lost generation) or they can help ease the growing pains of the paradigm shift (see 1990's deregulation of the communications industry ). The law can only go so far as evolution and technology marches on. Uber is the new way while monopolistic taxi services will fade. You can try to stifle it but if the people want it, they will get it. If the bureaucrats resist too much then the correction in the economy creates a large upheaval as the protected old ways crash hard and destroy industries (this is going to happen in academia. The student loan bubble will burst ams that will cause academic people to lose their careers and investments.
In summary: choose your own fate. Those who adapt will have a greater chance at success while those who fight it will be crushed by the wave of change.
If we expand our bread and circus ( welfare and leisure) lifestyle; our society will eventually collapse under its own weight. If we can encourage the embrace of change, then we will lead the world into the bright future.

创业者是那些通过创新试图创建业务来满足消费者需求的人。有些人成为运动员、演员和表演者。其他人从事管道工、泥瓦匠和厨师等行业。有些人制造酷炫的小玩意儿或制作美食。他们承担风险，将自己的想法推向市场，以谋生。
如果一个人处于劳动力类别，他们需要选择自己的命运。
官僚是不确定因素。他们可以尝试强迫旧的方式成为国家的法律(阅读日本迷失的一代)，或者他们可以帮助缓解范式转变带来的成长痛苦(参见1990年代电信业的去监管化)。法律只能在进化和技术进步的情况下发挥作用。Uber是新的方式，而垄断的出租车服务将逐渐消失。你可以试图扼杀它，但如果人民需要它，他们会得到它。如果官僚们抵制得太多，那么经济的调整就会造成巨大的动荡，由于受保护的旧方式严重崩溃并摧毁了工业(这将发生在学术界。学生贷款泡沫将破裂，这将导致学者失去他们的事业和投资。）
总之:选择你自己的命运。那些适应的人将有更大的成功机会，而那些与之抗争的人将被变革的浪潮压垮。
如果我们扩大我们的面包和马戏(福利和休闲)生活方式;我们的社会最终会在自身的重压下崩溃。如果我们能够鼓励变革，那么我们将带领世界走向光明的未来。