If there is one thing that Americans of all political stripes can agree on, it is that the economy is broken. Donald Trump, who saw trade as a rip-off and his country in decline, came into office promising to make America great again. President Joe Biden is spending $2trn remaking the economy, hoping to build it back better. Americans are worried. Nearly four-fifths tell pollsters that their children will be worse off than they are, the most since the survey began in 1990, when only about two-fifths were as gloomy. The last time so many thought the economy was in such terrible shape, it was in the throes of the global financial crisis.

如果说有一件事情是所有政治派别的美国人都认同的，那就是美国经济已经崩溃。唐纳德·特朗普将贸易视为当冤大头，他认为国家正在衰落，上台时承诺要让美国再次伟大。美国总统乔·拜登斥资2万亿美元来重建经济，希望重建美好未来。美国人感到担忧，民调显示近五分之四的受访者认为，子女将比他们过得更糟糕，这是自1990年开始这项调查以来人数最多的，当年只有五分之二的受访者这么悲观。上一次这么多人认为经济状况如此糟糕，还是在全球金融危机期间。
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Yet the anxiety obscures a stunning success story—one of enduring but underappreciated outperformance. America remains the world’s richest, most productive and most innovative big economy. By an impressive number of measures, it is leaving its peers ever further in the dust.

然而，焦虑掩盖了一个惊人的成功故事——长久被低估的卓越表现。美国仍然是世界上最富裕、生产力最高、最具创新力的经济大国。从众多令人赞叹的指标来看，美国正在使其他国家望尘莫及。

Start with the familiar measure of economic success: gdp. In 1990 America accounted for a quarter of the world’s output, at market exchange rates. Thirty years on, that share is almost unchanged, even as China has gained economic clout. America’s dominance of the rich world is startling. Today it accounts for 58% of the g7’s gdp, compared with 40% in 1990. Adjusted for purchasing power, only those in über-rich petrostates and financial hubs enjoy a higher income per person. Average incomes have grown much faster than in western Europe or Japan. Also adjusted for purchasing power, they exceed $50,000 in Mississippi, America’s poorest state—higher than in France.

先从我们熟悉的衡量经济成功的指标GDP说起。1990年，按市场汇率计算，美国占世界产量的四分之一。30年过去了，尽管中国的经济影响力有所增强，但这一份额几乎没有变化。美国在发达世界的主导地位令人吃惊。目前，美国占七国集团GDP的58%，而1990年这一比例为40%。经过购买力调整后，只有非常富裕的石油国家和金融中心的人均收入更高。美国平均收入的增速比西欧和日本快得多。在美国最贫穷的密西西比州，经过购买力调整后的平均收入超过5万美元——比法国还要高。

The record is as impressive for many of the ingredients of growth. America has nearly a third more workers than in 1990, compared with a tenth in western Europe and Japan. And, perhaps surprisingly, more of them have graduate and postgraduate degrees. True, Americans work more hours on average than Europeans and the Japanese. But they are significantly more productive than both.

许多增长要素的表现同样令人赞叹。与1990年相比，美国的劳动力增加了近三分之一，而西欧和日本仅增加了十分之一。有些人也许想不到，他们中更多的人拥有研究生学位。没错，美国人的平均工作时间多于欧洲人和日本人，但他们的工作效率比两者都高得多。

American firms own more than a fifth of patents registered abroad, more than China and Germany put together. All of the five biggest corporate sources of research and development(r&d) are American; in the past year they have spent $200bn. Consumers everywhere have benefited from their innovations in everything from the laptop and the iPhone to artificial-intelligence chatbots. Investors who put $100 into the s&p 500 in 1990 would have more than $2,000 today, four times what they would have earned had they invested elsewhere in the rich world.

美国公司拥有超过五分之一的国际注册专利，超过了中国和德国的总和。全球五大研发企业都来自美国；在过去的一年里，他们斥资2000亿美元。从笔记本电脑、苹果手机到人工智能聊天机器人，世界各地的消费者都从他们的创新中受益。
1990年，如果投资者向标普500指数中的企业投资100美元，现在会增值到2000多美元，投资收益相当于其他发达国家的四倍。

One retort to this could be that Americans trade higher incomes for less generous safety-nets. America’s spending on social benefits, as a share of gdp, is indeed a great deal stingier than other countries’. But those benefits have become more European and, as the economy has grown, they have grown even faster. Tax credits for workers and children have become more generous. Health insurance for the poorest has expanded, notably under President Barack Obama. In 1979 means-tested benefits amounted to a third of the poorest Americans’ pre-tax income; by 2019 these came to two-thirds. Thanks to this, incomes for America’s poorest fifth have risen in real terms by 74% since 1990, much more than in Britain.

有一种反驳观点可能认为，美国人的高收入并没有换来慷慨的社会保障。从占GDP的比重来看，美国在社会福利上的支出确实比其他国家吝啬得多。但美国社会福利已经趋向于欧洲化，而且随着经济的增长，社会福利的增长加快。工人和儿童享受的税收抵免幅度增大。针对最贫困人口的医疗保险覆盖范围已经扩大，尤其是在巴拉克·奥巴马总统任内。1979年，资产测查补助（means-tested benefits）占美国最贫困人口税前收入的三分之一；到2019年，这一比例上升到三分之二。正因如此，自1990年以来，美国最贫困的五分之一人口的实际收入增长了74%，远高于英国。

For the world as a whole, America’s outperformance says much about how to grow. One lesson is that size matters. America has the benefit of a large consumer market over which to spread the costs of r&d, and a deep capital market from which to raise finance. Only China, and perhaps one day India, can boast of purchasing power at such scale. Other countries have sought to mimic it. But even those in Europe, which have got the closest, have struggled to become a true single market. Differences in bankruptcy laws and contractual terms, together with a variety of regulatory barriers, prevent bankers, accountants and architects from touting services across borders.

对于全世界而言，美国经济的优异表现突显了如何促进增长。其中一条经验是规模很重要。美国的优势是利用庞大的消费市场来分担研发成本，利用雄厚的资本市场来筹集资金。只有中国，可能有朝一日还有印度，可以炫耀如此巨大的购买力。其他国家争相效仿，但即使是情况最接近美国的欧洲国家，也很难成为真正的单一市场。破产法与合同条款上的差异，再加上各种监管障碍，阻碍了银行家、会计师、建筑师跨境推销他们的服务。

The size and the quality of the workforce matters, too. America was blessed with a younger population and a higher fertility rate than other rich countries. That may not be easily remedied elsewhere, but countries can at least take inspiration from America’s high share of immigrants, who in 2021 made up 17% of its workforce, compared with less than 3% in ageing Japan.

劳动力的规模和质量也很重要。相比其他发达国家，美国拥有更年轻的人口和更高的生育率。这可能是其他国家不易解决的，但至少可以从美国高比例的移民中得到启发。2021年，美国移民占劳动力的17%，而在老龄化的日本，这一比例不到3%。

Another lesson is the value of dynamism. Starting a business is easy in America, as is restructuring it through bankruptcy. The flexibility of the labour market helps employment adapt to shifting patterns of demand. Already many of the workers in America who were laid off from Alphabet and other tech firms at the start of the year are applying their sought-after skills elsewhere, or setting up their own businesses. In continental Europe, by contrast, tech firms are still negotiating lay-offs, and may think twice about hiring there in future.

另一条经验是活力的价值。在美国，创办企业和破产重组都很容易。劳动力市场的灵活性有助于就业适应需求模式的变化。在今年年初被Alphabet和其他科技公司解雇的美国工人中，许多人正在其他领域施展吃香的技能，或者创办自己的企业。相比之下在欧洲大陆，科技公司仍在就裁员进行谈判，未来在雇佣员工时可能会三思而行。

Americans should find the economy’s performance reassuring. If history is a guide, living standards will continue to go up for the next generation, even as the country bears the costs of decarbonising the economy. Yet, resilient as the growth record has been, there are shadows. The middle class has seen its post-tax incomes rise by less than those of both the poorest and the richest. A group of people have fallen into hard times. The share of prime-age American men who are not in work has been rising for years and is higher than in Britain, France and Germany. And life expectancy in America lags shamefully behind others in the rich world, mainly on account of too many younger people dying from drug overdoses and gun violence. Tackling such problems should be easier when the economy as a whole is growing. But America’s poisonous politics are no help.

美国人应该会觉得经济表现令人放心。如果以史为鉴，尽管美国要承担经济脱碳的成本，但下一代人的生活水平还将继续提高。但是，尽管经济增长一直很有韧性，但也有阴影。中产阶级的税后收入的涨幅低于最贫困和最富裕的阶层。有一个群体陷入了困境，美国青壮年男性的失业比例逐年攀升，高于英国、法国和德国。美国人的预期寿命耻辱地落后于其他发达国家，主要原因是死于吸毒过量和枪支暴力的年轻人太多了。当经济整体增长时，解决这些问题应该比较容易，但美国有毒的政治于事无补。

In addition, the more that Americans think their economy is a problem in need of fixing, the more likely their politicians are to mess up the next 30 years. Although America’s openness brought prosperity for its firms and its consumers, both Mr Trump and Mr Biden have turned to protectionism and the politics of immigration have become toxic. Subsidies could boost investment in deprived areas in the short term, but risk dulling market incentives to innovate. In the long run they will also entrench wasteful and distorting lobbying. The rise of China and the need to fight climate change both confront America with fresh challenges. All the more reason, then, to remember what has powered its long and successful run.

另外，美国人越是认为经济是一个有待于解决的难题，美国政客就越有可能把未来30年搞砸。尽管美国的开放给企业和消费者带来了繁荣，但特朗普和拜登转向了保护主义，移民政治已经变得有毒。补贴在短期内也许能促进贫困地区的投资，但可能削弱市场对创新的激励。从长远来看，补贴还会使浪费和扭曲的游说变得根深蒂固。中国的崛起和应对气候变化都给美国带来了新的挑战。因此我们更有理由记住，美国的长期繁荣靠的是什么。