美国网友讨论：你认为未来美国的移民人数会增加还是减少？
Do you think there will be increasing emigration from the US in the future?
译文简介
我的父母在 80 年代从中国来到美国读研究生，然后就再也没有离开过。
正文翻译
Do you think there will be increasing emigration from the US in the future?
你认为未来美国的移民人数会增加吗？
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我的父母在 80 年代从中国来到美国读研究生，然后就再也没有离开过。虽然我希望他们当时能去一个更好的国家，但显然美国是 80 年代的最佳选择，而英国和澳大利亚等国家是二流学生的目的地，哈。你认为我们会看到美国的情况变成如此糟糕吗？比如说最聪明和最好的学生会去不同的国家而不是呆在这里。如果是这样，你认为他们会去哪些国家？还是你认为情况会像爱尔兰那样，许多穷人离开本国以寻求更好的生活条件？
St. Louis, MO
I’m sorry, but the US is still the #1 choice for immigrants worldwide. Someone from a failing 3rd would country doesn’t care about small differences between 1st world countries, they want to go somewhere that has the most opportunities
抱歉，美国仍然是全球移民的第一选择。来自失败的第三世界国家的人不关心第一世界国家之间的微小差异，他们只想去机会最多的地方
Like the bright and best students will go to different countries instead of staying here
They won't. Despite the struggles of America, many of the other western countries also face the same challenges. A lot of countries in Western Europe have other factors that would make living there less desirable for the best and brightest. Yes, they might have 'free' healthcare. But they pay sometimes more than 50% of their income in taxes to have those services. Meanwhile the best and brightest, as you put it, would much rather live here where they can get better quality healthcare services for a fraction of the cost, while keeping most of their money.
“比如说最聪明和最好的学生会去不同的国家而不是呆在这里。”
不会。尽管美国举步维艰，但许多其他西方国家也面临着同样的挑战。西欧的许多国家还有其他因素，这些因素会使最优秀和最聪明的人不太愿意在那里生活。是的，他们可能有“免费”的医疗保健。但他们有时会为获得这些服务而缴纳超过收入 50% 的税款。与此同时，正如你所说，最优秀和最聪明的人更愿意住在这里，在这里他们可以用一小部分成本获得质量更好的医疗保健服务，同时保留大部分钱。
Literally the only place that I ever hear people complain this much about how this country is falling apart is Reddit. And thats probably because the average age of the user can be counted on my fingers and toes.
大约一两个月前，这里有一个德国护士问我们的工资是否真的高那么多。在对这两种货币进行换算后，她的收入相当于每小时 15 美元。我这里的麦当劳时薪是 17 美元。这就是为什么这个国家的移民如此之多的原因：如果你要让自己和家人抛弃过去重新开始，你会去一个成功潜力最大的国家，而不是最好的国家。没有多少人梦想成为一名软件工程师的时候会想移居欧洲以支付 50% 的税，同时薪水比这里减少了 25%。
从字面上看，我唯一听到人们如此抱怨这个国家如何分崩离析的地方只有 Reddit。这可能是因为用户的平均年龄可以用我的手指和脚趾就能数出来。
So many people like to pretend the US is one of the worst countries. It's not perfect. No country is perfect. It's better than most and certain values and rights here are respected more than in other countries as well as opportunities and that's what matters for most who moved here.
Many people think the American dream is dead. The American dream is to have the opportunity to reach financial freedom/religious freedom/personal freedom (closest thing to true freedom here) which are not options in other countries. The dream isn't just handed to everyone. It has to be earned through hard work or risk. There isn't any reward without risk.
Most people won't live that dream, but everyone has the opportunity to here. Commence the down voting.
No, I don't think we'll see people leaving en masse.
很多人喜欢假装美国是最差的国家之一。它并不完美。没有一个国家是完美的。它比大多数国家要好，这里的某些价值观和权利比其他国家更受尊重，机会也更多，这对大多数搬到这里的人来说很重要。
许多人认为美国梦已经死了。美国梦是有机会实现财务自由/宗教自由/个人自由（在这里最接近于真正的自由），而这些在其他国家是没有选择的。梦想并不是递给每个人的。它必须通过努力工作或历经风险来获得。没有风险就没有任何回报。
大多数人不会实现这个梦想，但在这里每个人都有机会实现。你们可以点踩了。
不，我不认为我们会看到人们集体离开。
Beautifully written
写得好
Does everyone really have the opportunity here? Maybe. But it's not the same opportunity which is what the American dream was really supposed to be. Even native born Americans who are people of color or come from lower-income households have a significant (statistical) difference in success.
I agree with your premise - the US is still amazing for immigrants but the American dream isn't dead. It was just never true.
这里真的人人都有机会吗？也许吧。但没有同等的机会，而这正是美国梦真正应该有的。即使是土生土长的美国人，如果是有色人种或来自低收入家庭，在成功方面也有明显的（根据统计数据）差异。
我同意你的前提--美国对移民来说仍然很棒，但美国梦并没有死。它只是从未成为事实。
People who think the American dream is dead are low performers who have zero drive and were raised by uninspiring parents with a moderately cushy lifestyle.
认为美国梦已死的人都是些躺平的人，他们的驱动力为零，由平淡无奇的父母抚养长大，生活方式适度轻松。
Or maybe they were black/brown. Or maybe they came from a poor home. Your statement is just wrong. The American dream doesn't exist for MANY people. The American dream is not an equal opportunity employer.
或者他们可能只是因为肤色是黑色/棕色的。或者也许他们来自一个贫穷的家庭。你的陈述是错误的。对很多人来说，美国梦并不存在。美国梦从来不给予每个人平等的机会。
I lived in the inner city as a child, I own a mcmansion now.
miss me with your racism.
我小时候住在内城，现在拥有一栋豪宅。
别用种族主义当借口
Dude! That's amazing. (No sarcasm) I know you must have worked really, really hard for that. I'm a white person who grew up in a small racist town and I had a lot of opportunities but I've made a lot of poor choices.
My point wasn't that no person who is black/brown can succeed. Or that no person who grew up poor can't make it to your level. I'm just pointing out statistics and they say that black/brown folks aren't growing at the same rate as white kids. This isn't because black/brown kids are inferior, but because the US has institutionalized racism that prevents them from achieving.
I'm not great at getting my point across so I apologize if what I said came off offensive. I'm sure I'm still doing a less than stellar job at saying it.
To summarize: I think the US is great but we have a long way to go, especially when it comes to making sure marginalized communities have equal access to opportunities.
哥们儿！你太牛了。真了不起！（没有讽刺）我知道你一定为此付出了非常非常大的努力。我是一个在种族主义小镇长大的白人，我有很多机会，但我也做了很多错误的选择。
我的观点并不是说所有黑人/棕色人种都没办法获得成功。或者说一个出身贫寒的人肯定不能达到你的水平。我只是指出，统计数据显示，黑人/棕色人种的成长速度与白人孩子不一样。这并不是因为黑人/棕色人种的孩子低人一等，而是因为美国有制度化的种族主义，使他们无法实现自我价值。
我不善于表达我的观点，所以如果我说话冒犯了你，我深表歉意。我确实不擅长演讲。
总结一下。我认为美国是伟大的，但我们还有很长的路要走，特别是在确保边缘化群体有平等的机会方面。
I mean you dont see the "culture" that nobody likes to talk about where its generational benefits lifestyle where I grew up with someone who had 4 generations of family who have all lived in a 4 block radius and actively dont want to change their life style because while its not lavish its easy and they know how to game the system pretty hard.
many people in the community get absolutely mind fucked by their peers telling them how they cant succeed because they are black, or they are a woman, or because they are poor and those lies become their truth and that becomes the destiny they manifest.
and now we have people on social media who reinforce that lie and anyone who detracts from that company line has massive amounts of abuse hurled at them, and usually comes in the form of some racist attack, because we have a political party that needs minorities pissed the fuck off and piss poor because thats how they get their votes.
我想说你忽视了一种没有多少人喜欢谈论的世代相传的“文化”，我和一个有 4 代家庭的人一起长大，他的其他家庭成员都住在 4 个街区半径范围内并且主观上不想改变他们的生活方式，因为过得虽然不奢华，但也很轻松，他们非常熟悉这套生活方式。
社区中的许多人被他们的同龄人一直灌输他们如何因为是黑人，或者因为是女人，或者因为他们出身贫寒而肯定无法成功而完全精神崩溃，而这些谎言最终成为了自我实现的预言。
现在我们有人在社交媒体上强化这个谎言，任何质疑这种结论的人都会遭到大量辱骂，而且通常以某种种族主义攻击的形式出现，因为我们有一个需要少数群体保持激愤、需要穷人保持愤怒的政党，因为那是他们获得选票的方式。
You're right. I absolutely do not have that knowledge of the culture. I just see black and brown children being treated differently than white kids since grade 1 and I wanna work for a goal to try to change it. We can't change the culture until we change the systems - that's what I believe anyway.
I see where you're coming from and I really appreciate the respectful reality check you've given me. I'm going to keep trying to learn and do my best.
你说的没错。完全没有想到这方面。我只是看到黑人和棕色的孩子从一年级开始就受到与白人孩子不同的待遇，我想以此作为一个目标而努力，试着去改变它。除非我们改变制度，否则我们无法改变文化--这是我所相信的。
我明白你的想法，我真的很感谢你给我提出的现实观点。我将尽我所能继续努力学习。
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Ohio
With respect, how is it a tenable position that individuals in the US have the opportunity to achieve freedom to a degree that’s impossible in other countries?
We aren’t even in the top twenty in terms of social mobility (the chance of a child to be better off than their parents).
And that’s based on a ranking from the World Economic Forum, lest I be accused of picking some lefty source.
https://www.weforum.org/reports/global-social-mobility-index-2020-why-economies-benefit-from-fixing-inequality/
恕我直言，说美国人有机会获得在其他国家不可能达到的自由程度，是完全站不住脚的。
在社会流动性（孩子比父母过得更好的机会）方面，我们甚至不在前 20 名之列。
这是世界经济论坛的排名，以免我被指责选择左翼信息来源：
angrytompaine
Texas
I don't want to be rude, but you really need to get off the internet and open a history book. Mass emigration is usually caused by violent political turmoil (I mean civil war, not a bunch of crackheads storming the capitol for a few hours), famine, extreme disruption, etc. Things that are unheard of in the modern US.
"I don't want to pay for healthcare" is not going to cause mass emigration.
我不想表现得无礼，但你真的需要离开互联网并打开一本历史书。大规模移民通常是由暴力政治动荡（我的意思是内战，而不是一群疯子冲进国会大厦几个小时）、饥荒、极端破坏等造成的。这些都是在现代美国闻所未闻的事情。
“我不想支付医疗费用”不会导致大规模移民。
Wisconsin
Some of the exact reasons my parents left for the US. No other country was on their radar. It never crossed their mind to head to some place like Canada or Europe. America is where the opportunity and a better chance at brighter future were in their eyes. The US has always had bumps in the road and issues to deal with. People are always coming and going, it's just how things are. For more people to leave than come, it will have to take something absolutely major to happen
你列举的确实是我父母离开祖国来到美国的原因。他们的眼里没有其他国家。他们从未想过要去加拿大或欧洲这样的地方。在他们眼中，美国代表着机会和实现更美好未来的更好机会。美国的道路上一直有坎坷，也有需要应对的问题。人总是来来往往，生活就是这样。要想让更多的人离开这个国家，必须要有绝对重大的事情发生。
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Hawaii->Alabama
Yeah, uprooting your whole life and starting over in an entirely new culture is HARD. People don't move en masse out of their home countries unless there's significant push factors.
是的，将你的整个生活从母国连根拔起并在一种全新的文化中重新开始是很困难的。除非有重要的推动因素，否则人们不会大批离开自己的国家。
There’s probably a small number of people who would emigrate for health care
Reason being: the majority of people who don’t have good healthcare also wouldn’t have the money to emigrate like that
可能有一小部分人会为了医疗保健而移民
原因是：大多数没有良好医疗保健的人也没有钱像那样移民
California
I mean, some are planning to emigrate due to increasingly common acts of violence as well as controversial legislation. The US won’t see civil war, rather sporadic acts of violence in the name of one side or the other
我认为，由于越来越普遍的暴力行为以及有争议的立法，一些人正计划移民出去。美国不会发生内战，而是某种一方或另一方名义的零星暴力行为
United States of America
I’m not trying to be rude but if there is a better option for you, you can still immigrate to a country that would better suit you.
People will go where they want to. Just like your parents did.
What those countries will be in the future who’s to say. There is a high population of Chinese for instance in Australia and UK.
我不是想无礼，但如果有更好的选择，你依然可以移民到一个更适合你的国家。
人们会去他们想去的地方。就像你的父母那样。
这些国家在未来会是什么样子，谁也说不准。例如，在澳大利亚和英国就有很多中国人嘛。
Ohio
I wish they could have came to a better country
If you think you would be happier somewhere else then you can leave. But everywhere has issues. It might be cliche but the "The grass is always greener on the other side" is true.
“我希望他们当时能去一个更好的国家”
如果你认为你在其他地方会更快乐，那么你可以离开。但是哪里都有问题。这可能是陈词滥调，但“外国的月亮比较圆”是真实的。
the way things are going so poorly in the US
Things go "so poorly" all the time, everywhere if you are motivated to see everything that way. The US still has a great economy and practically endless opportunity to find some kind of success EVEN for most poor people, believe it or not. No other country comes close.
So, sure, I could imagine at some point in the far far distant future things might change such that people want to leave the US rather than come to it in droves as they still do now. But its unlikely to happen in my lifetime.
“美国的情况如此糟糕”
事情总是"如此糟糕"，在任何地方都是如此，如果你有动力去全方面地检查一切的话。美国仍然有一个强大的经济和几乎无穷无尽的机会来找到某种成功，甚至对大多数穷人来说也是如此，信不信由你。这点没有其他国家能与之相比。
所以，当然，我可以想象，在遥远的未来的某个时刻，事情可能会发生变化，人们想要离开美国，而不是像现在这样成群结队地来到这里。但这不太可能在我的有生之年发生。
Other countries do come close (western Europe, Australia, New Zealand), but they're all as restrictive to immigrate to as the US.
And anyone who argues that someplace besides the US does it indisputably better is picking their metrics very, very carefully.
其他国家（西欧、澳大利亚、新西兰）确实在缩小和美国的距离，但它们也都像美国一样限制移民。
任何认为美国以外的地方可以无可争议地做得更好的人，都在非常、非常特意地挑选他们的衡量标准。
Long Island, NY
I wasn't aware things were going poorly in the US.
我怎么不知道美国不行了。
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This is some kind of Euro-jerkoff fantasy.
这是某种欧洲混蛋的幻想。
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Japan/Indiana
You wish they’d come to a better country? Wow, what an ingrate.
你希望他们当初去到一个更好的国家？哇，多么忘恩负义。
Florida
OH YEAH WE'RE DOOMED!!!
哦，是的，我们完蛋了！！！
Things are not going poorly in the US. Where did you come up with your anti American view? Would you rather be living in China under the CCP?
美国的情况并不糟糕。你的反美观点从何而来？你愿意生活在中国政府下的中国吗？
I don't know, why don't you move to one of those "better" countries and let us all know.
你为什么不搬到那些“更好”的国家之一，让我们都知道搬去了哪个国家。
CCCP bot
机器人
Nope. I think we'll still have people clamoring to get in, people overstaying their visas while marrying citizens, and people sneaking over the border illegally.
不。我认为我们仍然会有人吵着要入境，有人在与公民结婚时逾期逗留，还有人非法偷偷越过边境。
New England
Or do you think it will be a situation like Ireland, where a lot of poor left the country to see better conditions?
I know we have some economic issues and a wealth disparity between the rich and poor, but we are still the richest country in the world.
“还是你认为情况会像爱尔兰那样，许多穷人离开该国以寻求更好的条件？”
我知道我们有一些经济问题和贫富差距，但我们仍然是世界上最富有的国家。
Michigan
This question doesn’t seem well reasoned.
这个问题问得似乎没什么道理。
Delaware
I don't see the country going poorly for the best and brightest. America is still arguably the best country to immigrate to at the top end of the social hierarchy. Money makes the social negatives go away.
At the low/mid end they simply can't afford to emigrate or are blocked by other countries high barrier to entry immigration policies.
The only place where i could see a major rate change as a result of quality would be the mid tier business class.
As to specifically students no I dont see that changing any time soon. US dumps insane amounts of money into R&D from both public and private sources. A student is simply going to have better access to resources when compared to students outside the US in the same "tier".
我不认为这个国家对最好和最聪明的人来说会变得很差。美国仍然可以说是社会头部阶层的最佳移民国家。金钱可以使社会的负面因素消失。
在低端/中端，他们根本无力移民，或被其他国家高门槛的移民政策所阻挡。
我唯一能看到因质量而产生重大变化的地方是中层商务阶层。
至于具体的学生，我不认为这很快就会改变。美国在公共和私人方面都为研发投入了大量资金。美国以外相同"层级"的学生与美国的学生相比，美国的学生拥有更好的机会获得资源。
Tennessee
When smart people get paid significantly more in foreign countries they’ll go there. That hasn’t (and likely won’t) be happening any time soon.
The biggest increase in emigration will likely come from middle class retirees looking to stretch their money and health care costs in central or Latin america.
当聪明人在外国能明显得到更多的报酬时，他们会去那里。这还没有（也很可能不会）在短期内发生。
向外移民的最大增长可能来自中产阶级的退休人员，他们希望在中美洲或拉丁美洲最大化他们的资金和医疗保健费用。
Virginia
I would encourage you to emigrate to wherever you think you have the best chance of making a go of it.
我鼓励您移民到您认为最有机会成功的地方。
No. Get off the internet. Considering the options, the United States is still the best place to get ahead. We have an unfathomably large economy with plentiful opportunity, the highest salaries on the planet, relative low cost of living and taxes…sure, we have problems but so does the rest of the world. There is a reason why everyone wants to immigrate to the U.S….it’s a place to build yourself up from nothing. And you can. But it’s not a handout, and you have to take the risk and work fucking hard. High risk, high reward. And there’s no other place on the planet like it.
少上点网吧。考虑到各种选择，美国仍然是取得成功的最佳地点。我们拥有一个深不可测的庞大经济体，拥有丰富的机会、地球上最高的薪水、相对较低的生活成本和税收……当然，我们有问题，但世界其他地方也有问题。每个人都想移民到美国是有原因的……这是一个能让你白手起家的地方。只要你有能力。但这不是施舍，你必须承担风险并努力工作。高风险，高回报。地球上没有其他地方能像它一样。
Which things are going so poorly we're going to see a mass exodus like it's the potato famine?
哪些事情进展得如此糟糕以至于我们将看到像爱尔兰马铃薯饥荒一样的人口大规模外流？
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Minnesota, Duluth
We have the evil democraps and republicturds killing the country!!!
我们有邪恶的民主主义者和共和主义者在杀害这个国家！！！
IL-> KA (India) -> TX -> PA
Still is the best choice, parents also tried Canada, US is better
It’s just people who grew up here who are kinda brainwashed into thinking it’s bad here for some weird reason.
In any case yeah if you go to one of the “better” countries you will see a lot of similar problems there too
这里仍然是最好的选择，我的父母试过去加拿大，还是觉得美国更好。
只是在这里长大的人由于一些奇怪的原因被洗脑，认为这里很糟糕。
在任何情况下，如果你去一个你认为的"更好"的国家，你也会看到很多类似的问题。
IL-> KA (India) -> TX -> PA
Now about OPs question, actually there might be a small uptick in people leaving since developing countries from which many immigrants came from have improved and people go back to take care of family and things like that, but the net effect will not be significant and there will continue to be a net positive flow into the country.
回到原帖的问题，可能确实会有一小部分人离开，因为许多从发展中国家来的移民他们本国已经改善了，人们回去照顾家庭和类似的事情，但净影响不会很大，会继续有净正数流入美国。
I love this country but I’m curious, what do you think makes it better than Australia and Canada? If I had to choose, I think I’d go with the US just because we have the most people. But in todays age where the world is increasingly interconnected, what do you think makes us so much better than Canada or Australia? Like I said I love this country but I think Canada and Australia are also better than us at some aspects too. I’m really curious to hear your answer.
我爱这个国家，但我很好奇，你认为它比澳大利亚和加拿大更好的地方是什么？如果我必须选择，我想我会选择美国，因为我们的人口更多。但在当今世界日益相互联系的时代，你认为是什么让我们比加拿大或澳大利亚好得多？就像我说的，我爱这个国家，但我认为加拿大和澳大利亚在某些方面也比我们好。我真的很想听听你的回答。
IL-> KA (India) -> TX -> PA
Far better integration of immigrants and a much better job market. Yes, immigrants are doing better here than Canada when you look at overall social mobility (not that Canada or Aus is bad though, they are great too)
更好地融合移民和更好的就业市场。是的，从整体社会流动性来看，移民在这里比在加拿大做得更好（虽然不是说加拿大或澳大利亚不好，但它们也很棒）
I don't see anything of the sort happening any time soon.
I cant think of a reason to emigrate other than to have less of a tax burden.
我认为短期内不会发生任何此类事件。
除了减轻税负之外，我想不出移民的理由。
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Minnesota
It’s wild that you think things are going so poorly here that mass swaths of people are considering emigration.
Honestly, if you wanted to emigrate from the wealthiest and one of the most secure countries in the world, I would consider you to be an idiot.
你认为这里的情况如此糟糕以至于大量的人正在考虑移民离开，这真是太疯狂了。
老实说，如果你想从世界上最富有和最安全的国家之一移民出去，我会认为你是个白痴。
You certainly should be encouraged to leave for a "better" country since you don't seem to appreciate this one. There are plenty of people who would love to take your place.
你完全可以去一个“更好”的国家，因为你似乎并不欣赏这个国家。有很多人愿意取代你的位置。
Texas
No, sure, people will emigrate to the other countries. That's their prerogative. Yes, the U.S has problems and could be better, but don't think that other countries are utopias. Even the UK and Australia for all the positive press they receive aren't utopias; and have issues. So if you want to leave the U.S, leave. But even if you're parents would've chosen another country to come to, they still would have encountered issues, setbacks and disappointments.
不认同。人们当然会移民到其他国家。那是他们的特权。是的，美国有问题并且可以更好，但不要认为其他国家就是乌托邦。即使是英国和澳大利亚，从他们所有的正面新闻来看也都不是乌托邦；并且有自己的问题。所以如果你想离开美国，就离开吧。但即使你的父母当初选择了另一个国家，他们还是会遇到问题、挫折和失望。
Ohio
No. People only leave their home countries in large numbers if something horrible happens like a civil war or a large scale natural disaster. Leaving a country and getting legal residency elsewhere is very difficult and expensive and I imagine countries will be less understanding if you aren't a refugee. Leaving your home country means leaving behind your family, your home, your culture, really just everything that's familiar to you. Most people don't want to do that.
不会。只有在内战或大规模自然灾害等可怕事件发生时，人们才会大量离开自己的祖国。离开一个国家并在其他地方获得合法居留权是非常困难和昂贵的，我想如果你不是难民，各国都不会很理解你。因为离开你的祖国意味着离开你的家人、你的家、你的文化，实际上就是你熟悉的一切。大多数人不想那样做。