Given how woefully stock and bond portfolios have performed over the past year or so, you may not have noticed that financial markets are floating high on optimism. Yet there is no other way to describe today’s investors, who since the autumn have increasingly bet that inflation, the world economy’s biggest problem, will fall away without much fuss. The result, many think, will be cuts in interest rates towards the end of 2023, which will help the world’s major economies—and most importantly America—avoid a recession. Investors are pricing stocks for a Goldilocks economy in which companies’ profits grow healthily while the cost of capital falls.

考虑到过去一年来股票和债券投资组合的糟糕表现，你可能没注意到金融市场高涨的乐观情绪。但没有其他方式能描述当前的投资者，他们从去年秋天开始越来越相信，通货膨胀这个世界经济的最大难题将毫无悬念地消失。许多人认为，结果是2023年底前降息，有利于世界主要经济体——最重要的是美国——避免陷入经济衰退。投资者给股票定价是基于对“金发女孩经济”的预期，即企业利润稳健增长，资金成本下降。

In anticipation of this welcome turn of events the s&p 500 index of American stocks has risen by nearly 8% since the start of the year. Companies are valued at about 18 times their forward earnings—low by post-pandemic standards, but at the high end of the range that prevailed between 2002 and 2019. And in 2024 those earnings are expected to surge by almost 10%.

出于对形势好转的预期，自年初以来，美国股票的标准普尔500指数上涨了近8%。企业的预估市盈率约为18倍，尽管以后疫情时代的标准来看偏低，但处于2002-2019年主流范围的较高水平，预计2024年股票收益上涨10%。

It is not just American markets that have jumped. European stocks have risen even more, thanks partly to a warm winter that has curbed energy prices. Money has poured into emerging economies, which are enjoying the twin blessings of China abandoning its zero-covid policy and a cheaper dollar, the result of expectations of looser monetary policy in America.

不只是美国股市上涨，欧洲股市的涨幅更大，部分原因是暖冬抑制了能源价格。资金大量涌入新兴经济体，他们正在享受中国废除清零政策和美元贬值的双重利好，后者是预期美国放宽货币政策的结果。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


This is a rosy picture. Unfortunately, as we explain this week, it is probably misguided. The world’s battle with inflation is far from over. And that means markets could be in for a nasty correction.

这是一派繁荣景象。可惜正如我们在本周阐述的，这可能是误入歧途。世界与通货膨胀的斗争远未结束，这意味着市场可能出现严重回调。

For a sign of what has got investors’ hopes up, look at America’s latest consumer-price figures, released on February 14th. They showed less inflation over the three months to January than at any time since the start of 2021. Many of the factors which first caused inflation to take off have dissipated. Global supply chains are no longer overwhelmed by surging demand for goods, nor disrupted by the pandemic. As demand for garden furniture and games consoles has cooled, goods prices are falling and there is a glut of microchips. The oil price is lower today than it was before Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago. The picture of falling inflation is repeated around the world: the headline rate is falling in 25 of the 36 mainly rich countries in the oecd.

要想知道是什么燃起了投资者的希望，看一下美国在2月14日公布的最新消费者价格数据，它们显示在截至1月份的三个月里，通货膨胀低于2021年初的任何时候。最初引发通货膨胀的许多因素已经消失，全球供应链既没有因为商品需求激增而不堪重负，也没有因为疫情而中断。庭院家具和游戏手柄的需求已经下降，商品价格正在下降，芯片供过于求。当前的石油价格比去年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前还低。世界各地接连出现通胀率的下降：在经济合作与发展组织的36个主要发达国家中，25个国家的整体通胀率都在下降。

Yet fluctuations in headline inflation often mask the underlying trend. Look into the details, and it is easy to see that the inflation problem is not fixed. America’s “core” prices, which exclude volatile food and energy, grew at an annualised pace of 4.6% over the past three months, and have started gently accelerating. The main source of inflation is now the services sector, which is more exposed to labour costs. In America, Britain, Canada and New Zealand wage growth is still much higher than is consistent with the 2% inflation targets of their respective central banks; pay growth is lower in the euro area, but rising in important economies such as Spain.

然而，整体通货膨胀的波动通常掩盖潜在的趋势。从细节不难看出，通货膨胀问题并未得到解决。过去三个月来，美国的“核心”物价（剔除动荡的粮食和能源价格）以4.6%的速度增长，并开始缓慢加速。现在通货膨胀的主要源头是服务业，受劳动力成本的影响较大。在美国、英国、加拿大、新西兰，工资增长率仍然远高于各自央行的2%通胀目标；欧元区的工资增幅下降，但西班牙等重要经济体出现上涨。

That should not be a surprise, given the strength of labour markets. Six of the g7 group of big rich countries enjoy an unemployment rate at or close to the lowest seen this century. America’s is the lowest it has been since 1969. It is hard to see how underlying inflation can dissipate while labour markets stay so tight. They are keeping many economies on course for inflation that does not fall below 3-5% or so. That would be less scary than the experience of the past two years. But it would be a big problem for central bankers, who are judged against their targets. It would also blow a hole in investors’ optimistic vision.

考虑到劳动力市场的强劲，这并不令人意外。在“七大工业国组织”中，六个发达大国的失业率达到或接近本世纪的最低水平，美国失业率达到1969年以来的最低水平。在劳动力市场如此紧俏之际，很难看出潜在通货膨胀有消失的迹象。这使许多经济体的通胀率保持在不低于3-5%的水平，虽然不像过去两年那么可怕，但对于各国央行来说是个大问题，因为市场根据通胀目标来评判它们，还会沉重打击投资者的乐观预期。

Whatever happens next, market turbulence seems likely. In recent weeks bond investors have begun moving towards a prediction that central banks do not cut interest rates, but instead keep them high. It is conceivable—just—that rates stay high without seriously denting the economy, while inflation continues to fall. If that happens, markets would be buoyed by robust economic growth. Yet persistently higher rates would inflict losses on bond investors, and continuing elevated risk-free returns would make it harder to justify stocks trading at a large multiple of their earnings.

无论接下来发生什么，市场动荡都可能发生。最近几个星期以来，债券投资者开始倾向于预测央行不会降息，而是让利率保持在高位。这是有可能的——仅此而已——让利率保持在高位而不严重损害经济，同时通胀率继续下降。在这种情况下，强劲的经济增长将会提振市场。但是，利率持续保持在高位会使债券投资者遭受损失，无风险收益的持续走高更难以证明股票高市盈率的合理性。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


It is far more likely, however, that high rates will hurt the economy. In the modern era central banks have been bad at pulling off “soft landings”, in which they complete a cycle of interest-rate rises without an ensuing recession. History is full of examples of investors wrongly anticipating strong growth towards the end of a bout of monetary tightening, only for a downturn to strike. That has been true even in conditions that are less inflationary than today’s. Were America the only economy to enter recession, much of the rest of the world would still be dragged down, especially if a flight to safety strengthened the dollar.

但是，高利率损害经济的可能性更大。现代央行不擅长实现“软着陆”，即完成一个利率上升周期的同时避免陷入经济衰退。这样的历史案例比比皆是，投资者误判在货币紧缩即将结束之际会出现强劲的经济增长，结果却是经济衰退。即使在通胀率比现在低的情况下，结果也是如此。如果只有美国陷入经济衰退，那么世界上大多数国家仍然会受到拖累，尤其当安全投资转移使美元走强时更是如此。

There is also the possibility that central banks, faced with a stubborn inflation problem, do not have the stomach to tolerate a recession. Instead, they might allow inflation to run a little above their targets. In the short run that would bring an economic sugar rush. It might also bring benefits in the longer run: eventually interest rates would settle higher on account of higher inflation, keeping them safely away from zero and giving central banks more monetary ammunition during the next recession. For this reason, many economists think the ideal inflation target is above 2%.

另一种可能是，面临通胀顽疾的各国央行没有勇气忍受经济衰退。相反，他们可能允许通胀率略高于目标。从短期来看，这能给经济带来提振作用，从长远来看，可能也能带来好处：最终高通胀率导致利率维持在较高水平，使利率安全地远离零水平，使央行在下一次经济衰退期间拥有更多的货币弹药。基于这个原因，许多经济学家认为，理想的通胀率目标是2%以上。

Yet managing such a regime shift without wreaking havoc would be an enormous task for central banks. They have spent the past year emphasising their commitment to their current targets, often set by lawmakers. Ditching one regime and establishing another would be a once-in-a-generation policymaking challenge. Decisiveness would be key; in the 1970s a lack of clarity about the goals of monetary policy led to wild swings in the economy, hurting the public and investors alike.

但对于各国央行来说，完成这样的制度转变而不造成严重破坏是一项艰巨的任务。在过去一年里，他们强调对当前通胀目标的承诺，这些目标通常由立法者来制定。对制度进行破旧立新是千载难逢的决策挑战，关键在于当机立断；上世纪70年代，由于缺少明确的货币政策目标，结果导致经济出现剧烈波动，使民众和投资者都遭受了损害。

Back to Earth

回归现实

So far central bankers in the rich world are showing no signs of reversing course. But even if inflation falls or they give up fighting it, policymakers are unlikely to execute a flawless pivot. Whether it is because rates stay high, recession strikes or policy enters a messy period of transition, investors have set themselves up for disappointment.

到目前为止，发达国家的央行尚未表现出政策转向的迹象。但即使通胀率下降，或者央行放弃抑制通胀的斗争，决策者们都不太可能实现完美的政策转向。无论是由于利率处在高位、经济衰退来袭、还是政策进入混乱的过渡期，势必都会让投资者感到失望。