网友讨论：印度什么时候可以成为发达国家？
When will India be a developed country?
译文简介
网友：如果印度继续像现在这样发展下去的话，那么印度将永远无法成为发达国家
让我们先看看其他国家是如何成为发达国家的
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网友讨论：印度什么时候可以成为发达国家？
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
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Follow A political analystupxed 1y
If India keeps growing in the same manner it does today, it will NEVER become a developed country.
Let us first see how other countries have become “developed”.
Europe
The emergence of the the Bubonic Plague and the subsequent Crisis of the Late Middle Ages created a dire shortage of the farmers and put an end to feudalism and lordship in the European continent, and hence set the foundation for private ownership and capitalism. At this time, the continent underwent a period of radical social transformation, also called as the Renaissance.
如果印度继续像现在这样发展下去的话，那么印度将永远无法成为发达国家
让我们先看看其他国家是如何成为发达国家的
欧洲
黑死病的出现以及中世纪后期的一系列危机导致农民数量出现了严重的短缺，这终结了欧洲大陆上的封建领主制，为私有制和资本主义奠定了基础。这个时候欧洲大陆经历了激进的社会转型，这个时期也被称为文艺复兴。
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之后欧洲大陆率先开启了工业革命。再加上地理大发现和在全球各地建立殖民地，欧洲开始变得更加富裕，其为数不多的人口的生活水平也得到了巨大的提高。在两次世界大战后，欧洲社会实现了现代化，其工业也很快得到了恢复，欧洲慢慢成为了现在这个样子。
The US wasn’t a significant power until the arrival of Industrial revolution. For Europe, US was became a location for cheap manufacturing starting from the 1850’s. US manufactured to cater to European consumption. The American industry gained further importance after the second World War, because the industry in Europe was shattered. The increase in high value industrial products resulted in higher wages and living standards, and US developed.
美国
在工业革命到来之前，美国还不是一个重要的大国。对于欧洲来说，从19世纪50年代以来美国一直都是廉价制造业的所在地。美国的制造业必须迎合欧洲的消费者。在第二次世界大战之后，由于欧洲工业被摧毁殆尽，美国工业的重要性获得了进一步的提高。高附加值工业品的增加导致美国人的工资和生活水平不断提高，美国由此也成为了发达国家。
Australia became an independent nation in 1901, before which it was a British dependency. With a resource-rich land and a miniscule population, combined with good governance; Australia quickly developed into a first-world nation.
Japan
Socially, Japan started developing during the Meiji era (1868- 1912), which brought modernizing reforms in Japanese society. The Meiji era also resulted in Japan shifting from an agrarian to an industrial economy. After the second World War, Japan focused on technological exports to rebuild their industry. Japan became one of the largest technological exporters, which helped develop the entire country in a few decades.
澳大利亚
澳大利亚在1901年获得独立，在此之前它一直是英国的附属国。澳大利亚资源丰富，人口稀少，再加上政府对国家的良好治理，澳大利亚很快就成为了第一世界国家。
日本
日本社会在明治时代开始发展，明治时代为日本社会带来了现代化的改革，它让日本从一个农业国变成了一个工业国。第二次世界大战后，日本以技术出口为中心，重建了自己的工业体系。日本成为了最大的技术出口国之一，这帮助日本在短短几十年内就发展了起来。
Korea was a Japanese colony until 1945. After the second World War, Korea was split into two halves. South Korea was an agrarian economy until the 1960’s. South Korea initially relied on Japanese investments, after which they focused on technological exports. The rapid industrialization led to prosperity and social progress, and South Korea became developed in a mere 40 years.
韩国
在1945年之前朝鲜一直是日本的殖民地。在第二次世界大战后，朝鲜半岛分裂成为了两个国家。在上世纪60年代之前，韩国还是一个农业国。韩国刚开始依靠日本投资，之后他们专注于技术出口。快速的工业化带来了国家繁荣和社会进步，韩国在短短四十年的时间里就成为了发达国家。
The Gulf states have massive oil reserves, a much required resource in the world. They sold the oil and invested it in the development of their country. As a result, in 30–40 years, countries like UAE and Qatar have undergone a massive transformation.
海湾国家
海湾国家拥有大量的石油储备，石油是全世界都急需的资源。他们出售石油，并用卖油获得的资金投资于国家的发展。因此在三四十年的时间里，像阿联酋的卡塔尔这样的国家就实现了巨大的转型。
Starting from the 1980’s, US and Europe had a very high consumption of goods, but manufacturing there was very expensive. China opened up its economy and became a cheap manufacturing hub, catering to the consumers in US and Europe. Government investment on infrastructure, combined with the ease of setting up a factory in China quickly made it the “World’s factory”. Later, China empowered their local companies, making them competent enough to cater to the international market. Nowadays, the Chinese government is focusing more on R&D, enabling China to also become a technological giant.
中国
从上世纪80年代开始，美国和欧洲对商品消费有着很高的需求，但美国和欧洲的生产成本非常高。中国开放了经济，迎合美国和欧洲的消费者成为了廉价制造业的中心。中国政府大力投资基础设施，再加上在中国建厂非常的便利，这使得中国很快就成为了世界工厂。之后，中国加强本土企业的实力，让他们有足够的实力来迎合国际市场的需求。如今中国政府更加注重研发，这使得中国也成为了技术大国
By looking at these examples, the picture is very clear. To become a developed country,
The country must excel in producing something of high value, i.e. something that the world wants.
中国要想成为发达国家依然还有很长的路要走，但中国发展的非常快。
通过观察这些案例，我们就能清楚的知道，要想成为发达国家，
这个国家必须擅长生产高附加值的东西，也就是世界需要的东西
India doesn’t excel in producing anything that the world has in high demand- be it agriculture, manufacturing produce, minerals or technology. India doesn't have anything to leverage.
In this case, India is headed for a middle-income trap, similar to the likes of Philippines, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Iran, etc.
印度经济的增长主要来自于外国投资，服务业和消费支出。如果只做世界的后勤办公室和客服中心，那么这个国家是永远无法成为发达国家的。
印度不擅长生产世界大量需要的任何产品，不管是在农业领域，制造业领域，矿产领域还是技术领域，印度都没有任何筹码。
在这种情况下，印度正在走向中等收入陷阱，就像菲律宾，斯里兰卡，印尼，伊朗等国一样。
The conclusion
Developing the manufacturing sector and R&D is the only way to evade this trap. The harsh reality is, we have been ignoring this year after year. Even today, our manufacturing is miserable and our R&D is virtually non-existent.
The problem is far larger and more urgent than Indians think. By 2030, we are expected to become a $10 trillion economy, with a per capita income of nearly $ 6700.
If India doesn’t course-correct, it will lose all it’s competitive advantage and get stuck in the trap forever. After that lies a period of perpetual stagnation.
I hope I am wrong.
像土耳其，马来西亚，巴西和墨西哥等国已经陷入了中等收入陷阱。陷入这个陷阱的国家没有一个可以走出来的。
结论：
发展制造业和注重研发是避免陷入中等收入陷阱的唯一办法。但残酷的现实是，我们多年来一直忽视了这一点。即使是今天，我们的制造业也没有的糟糕，我们的研发几乎就不存在。
这个问题比我们印度人想象的要严重的多，紧迫的多。到2030年，我们预计将成为10万亿美元经济体，人均收入能达到近6700美元。
如果印度不纠正方向，印度将会失去所有的竞争优势，永远困在陷阱之中走不出来。之后印度将会陷入永久的停滞之中。
我希望自己是错的。
· 2y
We don't even have sufficient toilets and homes. Our politicians are illiterate fools who don't know how to develop a nation.
我们甚至没有足够的厕所和住房。我们的政客是不识字的傻瓜，他们不知道如何发展国家。
· 2y
Turkey is perhaps the best example of a country that straddles the line between developed and developing. The CIA classifies it as a developed nation. However, other groups such as Dow Jones, FTSE, and MSCI still consider it developing
Turkey has very high HDI. 0.8 is the criteria for being called as developed, Turkey has reached 0.76. only thing restraining it from becoming developed is sanctions from US and its allies especially Germany, France and Italy. Therefore they have invested in their R&D a lot in recent years to reduce dependency on other countries.
Iran has very high HDI 0.798. Almost at the verge of being developed. But again US and its allies sanctions. Currently Iran has lost potential to become manufacturing hub because of their low currency and it is continuously going downward.
India has HDi 0.586 currently. Iran had similar during 1990.
土耳其或许是介乎发达国家和发展中国家的最好的一个例子。美国中央情报局曾经将土耳其列为发达国家，但道琼斯，富时和摩根士丹利等组织依然认为土耳其是一个发展中国家。
土耳其的人类发展指数非常高，达到0.8这个标准就可以被称为发达国家了，土耳其的人类发展指数达到了0.76，唯一阻止土耳其成为发达国家的原因是来自美国和其盟友的制裁，尤其是德国，法国和意大利。因此，为了减少对其他国家的依赖，土耳其近年来在研发方面进行了大量的投资。
伊朗的人类发展指数也非常高，达到0.798。几乎达到了发达国家的门槛。但伊朗也遭到了美国和其盟友的制裁。目前伊朗已经失去了成为制造业中心的潜力，因为伊朗货币汇率很低，而且还在持续贬值。
印度目前的人类发展指数是0.586，相当于伊朗上世纪90年代的水平。
· 1y
India will forever be a third world. The smartest option is to leave the place.
印度将永远都是第三世界国家，最明智的选择就是离开印度
· 1y
Well maybe not forever, since geopolitics is very unpredictable. However what you said is true, since it probably won’t be in our lifetimes, so perhaps its best to leave.
或许印度不会一直都是第三世界国家，因为地缘政治是非常难以预测的。但你说的没错，因为在我们有生之年，印度或许永远无法成为发达国家，所以最好的选择可能就是离开印度。
· 1y
It might be easier for smaller countries like Uruguay (3.5 million citizens) and Costa Rica(5 million) to escape the middle income trap, by investing and developing high tech/high value services. For India, Brazil, México it is harder, they must develop their internal market by growing their middle class.
对于乌拉圭（350万人口）和哥斯达黎加（500万）这样的小国来说，通过投资和发展高科技/高附加值的服务业就可以更加容易地摆脱中等收入陷阱。但对于印度，巴西，墨西哥来说，要摆脱中等收入陷阱会更难一些，他们必须通过培育中产阶级来发展国内的市场。
· 1y
Unfortunately, you are not wrong here my friend
遗憾的是，你说的没有错，我的朋友
Follow Former Digital Marketer Oct 13
Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a national day address on Monday that India is aiming to become a developed country within the next 25 years.
If India can achieve a sustained growth rate of 7-7.5% for the next 25 years, it will reach upper-middle-income status by 2047. According to the professor, the country can reach a GDP of $20 trillion by 2047 if the growth rate remains at this level.
莫迪总理在周一的国庆日演讲中表示印度的目标是在未来25年内成为发达国家。如果印度能够在未来的25年时间里保持7%到7.5%的持续性增长，那么印度就能在2047年成为中高收入国家。根据这位教授的说法，如果印度可以保持这样的增长率，那么印度到2047年的经济规模将要达到20万亿美元。
· Oct 14
I don't think our corrupt politicians and nepotism would let that happen.
我认为因为腐败政客和裙带关系的存在，这个目标根本就不可能实现
· Oct 16
Only Ambani Adani and Modi’s pet Dogs will be developed and their Purchasing power will increase. Nothing will change.
只有安巴尼·阿达尼和莫迪的宠物狗会获得发展，只有他们的购买力会不断增加。除此以外，什么都不会改变。
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· Oct 15
Whoever stays PM on 2047 from whichever party,will tell again that India will be a developed country in 25 years.
2047年无论是谁坐在总理的宝座上，无论他来自于哪个政党，他都会再次和我们说印度将在未来25年内成为发达国家。
· Oct 15
India can't be a developed country because of corruption….yes, corruption is very much present in BJP rule as it was before in Congress rule…
由于腐败，印度无法成为发达国家，是的，在人民党的统治下，腐败非常普遍，和过去国大党统治没有什么两样。
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· Oct 15
What will be the purchasing power of $20 trillion in 2047? Perhaps the same as today, $7.2 trillion.
2047年的20万亿美元的购买力是多少呢？可能只相当于现在的7.2万亿美元。
· Oct 15
India may never become a developed country ever. And not just India even China may never become a developed country ever.
China is a middle income country after having 7%+ growth for 30 yrs.
印度可能永远无法成为发达国家，不仅是印度，甚至就连中国可能永远也无法成为发达国家
中国gdp增速连续30年一直保持在7%以上，但现在还只是一个中等收入国家。
· Oct 19
India can never become a developed country. Not with this system and this much of population.
在目前的制度和人口规模下，印度是永远不可能成为发达国家的
· Dec 5
It depends upon what is our definition of developed country
这取决于我们对发达国家的定义
· Dec 16
PM had announced in 2014 that india will be 5 trillion economy by 2022. But what was the result?
总理曾在2014年的时候宣布说印度将在2022年成为5万亿美元的经济体。但结果如何呢