英国放弃了为冬季停电做准备的能源配给计划
UK drops plan to prepare for winter blackouts with energy rationing campaign
译文简介
“让一个扫把星当能源大臣真是太棒了。”——《卫报》报道。
正文翻译
UK drops plan to prepare for winter blackouts with energy rationing campaign
-business department and industry were considering drive to cut household use, despite PM ruling it out
英国放弃了为冬季停电做准备的能源配给计划
——商业部门和工业部门正在考虑减少家庭使用，尽管首相排除了这一可能
-business department and industry were considering drive to cut household use, despite PM ruling it out
英国放弃了为冬季停电做准备的能源配给计划
——商业部门和工业部门正在考虑减少家庭使用，尽管首相排除了这一可能
(Government analysis shows Britain could experience power cuts for four days in January if there were gas shortages and the weather was severe.)
（政府分析显示，如果天然气短缺且天气恶劣，英国1月份可能会断电4天。）
新闻：
Ministers have stepped back from mooted plans to launch a public information campaign to encourage households to reduce their energy use this winter.
大臣们放弃了一项有争议的计划，即发起一项公共信息运动，鼓励家庭在今年冬天减少能源使用。
大臣们放弃了一项有争议的计划，即发起一项公共信息运动，鼓励家庭在今年冬天减少能源使用。
A campaign asking households to turn their thermostats down and use their dishwashers and washing machines at times when energy demand is lower has been discussed between the business department, energy companies and the network operator National Grid.
商务部门、能源公司和网络运营商国家电网已经讨论了一项活动，要求家庭关掉恒温器，并在能源需求较低的时候再使用洗碗机和洗衣机。
商务部门、能源公司和网络运营商国家电网已经讨论了一项活动，要求家庭关掉恒温器，并在能源需求较低的时候再使用洗碗机和洗衣机。
However, the business department on Wednesday said there are now “no plans for the government to tell the public to reduce usage for the sake of our energy supplies”.
然而，英国商务部周三表示，目前“没有计划让政府为了能源供应而告知公众减少使用”。
然而，英国商务部周三表示，目前“没有计划让政府为了能源供应而告知公众减少使用”。
National Grid will on Thursday explain how Britain’s power system will cope with a harsh winter, amid growing concern that factories could be forced to shut down as Vladimir Putin chokes Europe’s gas supplies.
英国国家电网将于周四解释英国电力系统将如何应对严冬。目前人们越来越担心，随着弗拉基米尔·普京限制欧洲天然气供应，工厂可能被迫关闭。
英国国家电网将于周四解释英国电力系统将如何应对严冬。目前人们越来越担心，随着弗拉基米尔·普京限制欧洲天然气供应，工厂可能被迫关闭。
Ministers have so far played down the threat to energy supplies this winter, insisting in August that the UK’s “highly secure and diverse gas and electricity system” had prepared the UK for “all and every eventuality”.
大臣们迄今淡化了今年冬天能源供应面临的威胁，他们在8月份曾坚称，英国“高度安全和多样化的天然气和电力系统”已经为英国应对“所有和所有可能发生的情况”做好了准备。
大臣们迄今淡化了今年冬天能源供应面临的威胁，他们在8月份曾坚称，英国“高度安全和多样化的天然气和电力系统”已经为英国应对“所有和所有可能发生的情况”做好了准备。
Liz Truss also ruled out rationing when she was campaigning to become Tory party leader – and her credo is not to tell people what to do.
利兹·特拉斯在竞选保守党领袖时也排除了实施配给制的可能性，她的信条是不用告诉人们该做什么。
利兹·特拉斯在竞选保守党领袖时也排除了实施配给制的可能性，她的信条是不用告诉人们该做什么。
However, Russia has since intensified its squeeze on Europe’s gas supplies, including suspected sabotage of pipelines to Europe.
然而，自那以后，俄罗斯加强了对欧洲天然气供应的挤压，包括涉嫌破坏通往欧洲的燃气管道。
然而，自那以后，俄罗斯加强了对欧洲天然气供应的挤压，包括涉嫌破坏通往欧洲的燃气管道。
It is understood that officials discussed using a text, phone call and email alx service run by National Grid to contact households about cutting power use.
据了解，官员们讨论了使用国家电网运营的短信、电话和电子邮件提醒服务，联系家庭减少用电。
据了解，官员们讨论了使用国家电网运营的短信、电话和电子邮件提醒服务，联系家庭减少用电。
The system is normally used to notify consumers when it detects a power cut and gives timing estimates and confirmation when the power will be restored. Under the mooted plans, consumers could be sent advice on their energy use through the service.
该系统通常用于在检测到断电时通知用户，并给出时间估计和确认何时恢复供电。根据正在讨论的计划，消费者可以通过该服务收到关于他们能源使用的建议。
该系统通常用于在检测到断电时通知用户，并给出时间估计和确认何时恢复供电。根据正在讨论的计划，消费者可以通过该服务收到关于他们能源使用的建议。
Sources close to the discussions said government officials and industry executives were determined to avoid blackouts disrupting the supply of energy to Britons’ homes. A public information campaign could help ease pressure on energy supplies during the winter.
知情人士称，政府官员和行业高管决心避免停电扰乱英国家庭的能源供应。一场公共信息运动可能有助于缓解冬季能源供应的压力。
知情人士称，政府官员和行业高管决心避免停电扰乱英国家庭的能源供应。一场公共信息运动可能有助于缓解冬季能源供应的压力。
Energy rationing could also help to cut the huge bill for capping household and business energy prices, which the consultancy Cornwall Insight reckons will cost taxpayers £89bn.
能源配给也有助于削减限制家庭和企业能源价格的巨额账单，咨询公司Cornwall Insight估计，这将花费纳税人890亿英镑。
能源配给也有助于削减限制家庭和企业能源价格的巨额账单，咨询公司Cornwall Insight估计，这将花费纳税人890亿英镑。
Ofgem, the energy regulator, has said there was a “significant risk” of gas shortages this winter because of the war in Ukraine, which has resulted in a dash for gas stocks in Europe before winter.
英国能源监管机构天然气与电力市场办公室已表示，由于乌克兰战争，今年冬季存在天然气短缺的“重大风险”，这导致欧洲在冬季到来之前纷纷抢购天然气库存。
英国能源监管机构天然气与电力市场办公室已表示，由于乌克兰战争，今年冬季存在天然气短缺的“重大风险”，这导致欧洲在冬季到来之前纷纷抢购天然气库存。
National Grid is examining measures to prevent power shortages this winter. Earlier this year, Octopus Energy ran a trial that gave consumers a day’s notice to cut their usage during a peak period in return for payments. National Grid hopes to extend that service, but suppliers have suggested the payments may be too low.
国家电网正在研究防止今年冬天电力短缺的措施。今年早些时候，八达通能源进行了一项试验，向消费者提前一天通知，在用电高峰期减少用电，以换取减少付费。国家电网希望扩大这项服务，但供应商表示，减少的费用可能太低了。
国家电网正在研究防止今年冬天电力短缺的措施。今年早些时候，八达通能源进行了一项试验，向消费者提前一天通知，在用电高峰期减少用电，以换取减少付费。国家电网希望扩大这项服务，但供应商表示，减少的费用可能太低了。
National Grid’s outlook for winter energy supplies will be the first comprehensive assessment of the risk of blackouts this winter. The eagerly awaited document should show how resilient Britain’s energy supplies are over the coming months. An early view, published in August, showed that the UK should be able to meet its energy demand in the coming months. However, since then Norway has indicated it may prioritise supplying its domestic market over exporting power.
英国国家电网对冬季能源供应的展望，将是对今年冬季停电风险的首次全面评估。这份备受期待的文件应该能显示出英国能源供应在未来几个月的弹性。今年8月发表的一份早期报告显示，英国应该能够在未来几个月满足其能源需求。然而，从那以后，挪威表示，它可能会优先供应国内市场，而不是出口电力。
英国国家电网对冬季能源供应的展望，将是对今年冬季停电风险的首次全面评估。这份备受期待的文件应该能显示出英国能源供应在未来几个月的弹性。今年8月发表的一份早期报告显示，英国应该能够在未来几个月满足其能源需求。然而，从那以后，挪威表示，它可能会优先供应国内市场，而不是出口电力。
Government analysis has predicted that Britain could experience power cuts for four days in January if there were gas shortages and the weather was particularly severe.
政府分析预测，如果天然气短缺且天气特别恶劣，英国1月份可能会断电4天。
政府分析预测，如果天然气短缺且天气特别恶劣，英国1月份可能会断电4天。
Although European countries have made good progress in filling up gas storage facilities and reducing consumption, there are concerns about supplies and high prices through next year. Last week, the Nord Stream Russian gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea were damaged, with Russian sabotage suspected.
虽然欧洲国家在天然气储存设施的填充和减少消费方面取得了良好的进展，但到明年为止，供应和高价格仍令人担忧。上周，波罗的海下的北溪俄罗斯天然气管道被破坏了（怀疑是俄罗斯的蓄意破坏）。
虽然欧洲国家在天然气储存设施的填充和减少消费方面取得了良好的进展，但到明年为止，供应和高价格仍令人担忧。上周，波罗的海下的北溪俄罗斯天然气管道被破坏了（怀疑是俄罗斯的蓄意破坏）。
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts this week said Europe could suffer a colder winter with less rain and wind than average. It predicted a period of high pressure over western Europe in November and December, which could reduce the amount of renewable power generated.
欧洲中期天气预报中心本周表示，欧洲可能会经历一个更寒冷的冬天，降水量和风力都低于平均水平。该组织预测，在11月和12月，西欧将出现一段高压时期，这可能会减少可再生能源的发电量。
欧洲中期天气预报中心本周表示，欧洲可能会经历一个更寒冷的冬天，降水量和风力都低于平均水平。该组织预测，在11月和12月，西欧将出现一段高压时期，这可能会减少可再生能源的发电量。
European governments have attempted to cut consumption through various methods. Germany is trying to cut gas usage by around a fifth and has asked all companies and local authorities to reduce the minimum room temperature in their workspaces to 19C during the winter, and ministers in France are wearing warm clothes to send a message to consumers.
欧洲各国政府试图通过各种方法减少能源消费。德国正努力将天然气使用量减少约五分之一，并要求所有公司和地方政府在冬季将工作场所的最低室温降低到19摄氏度。法国的部长们也穿上了保暖的衣服，以向消费者传达一个信息。
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欧洲各国政府试图通过各种方法减少能源消费。德国正努力将天然气使用量减少约五分之一，并要求所有公司和地方政府在冬季将工作场所的最低室温降低到19摄氏度。法国的部长们也穿上了保暖的衣服，以向消费者传达一个信息。
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A UK industry source said: “There is still a debate over who is best to offer guidance to households – government, suppliers or network operators.”
一位英国业内人士表示：“对于谁是向家庭提供指导的最佳人选，仍存在争议——政府、供应商还是网络运营商。”
一位英国业内人士表示：“对于谁是向家庭提供指导的最佳人选，仍存在争议——政府、供应商还是网络运营商。”
However, any messaging campaign would have been at odds with the prime minister’s libertarian principles, and her insistence at the Conservative party conference: “I’m not going to tell you how to live your life.” Asked during the leadership campaign whether she would rule out energy rationing, Truss said: “I do rule that out. Yes.”
然而，任何信息宣传活动都将与这位首相的自由意志主义原则相悖，也与她在保守党大会上的坚持相悖：“我不会告诉你如何生活。”在竞选期间，当被问及是否会排除能源配给时，特拉斯说：“我确实排除了这种可能性。是的。”
然而，任何信息宣传活动都将与这位首相的自由意志主义原则相悖，也与她在保守党大会上的坚持相悖：“我不会告诉你如何生活。”在竞选期间，当被问及是否会排除能源配给时，特拉斯说：“我确实排除了这种可能性。是的。”
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the business secretary, when asked on Tuesday about a campaign to save energy, said: “I think the price signal is pretty strong … The price signal for businesses is similarly scaled. So I’m not sure we need to tell people to do things that are obvious. I’m not in favour of condescending government assuming people are stupid. Voters know what they need to do and don’t need me to tell them to do that.”
商务大臣雅各布·里斯-莫格周二被问及一项节能运动时表示：“我认为价格信号相当强烈……企业的价格信号也有类似的规模。所以我不确定我们是否需要告诉人们去做那些显而易见的事情。我不赞成傲慢的政府假定人们是愚蠢的。选民们知道他们需要做什么，不需要我来告诉他们。”
商务大臣雅各布·里斯-莫格周二被问及一项节能运动时表示：“我认为价格信号相当强烈……企业的价格信号也有类似的规模。所以我不确定我们是否需要告诉人们去做那些显而易见的事情。我不赞成傲慢的政府假定人们是愚蠢的。选民们知道他们需要做什么，不需要我来告诉他们。”
But the government’s reluctance to tell households to use less energy provoked criticism from Gavin Barwell, a former No 10 chief of staff. “So, if it is a cold winter and there simply isn’t enough energy to go round – which is a real risk – we are just going to have random blackouts rather than the government rationing non-domestic use so that vulnerable people don’t find themselves without heating?” he asked.
但政府不愿让家庭减少使用能源的做法招致了前唐宁街10号幕僚长加文·巴维尔的批评。“所以，如果是一个寒冷的冬天，没有足够的能源供应——这是一个真正的风险——我们就会随机停电，而不是对非家庭用电进行定量配给，这样弱势群体就不会发现自己没有暖气了？”他问道。
但政府不愿让家庭减少使用能源的做法招致了前唐宁街10号幕僚长加文·巴维尔的批评。“所以，如果是一个寒冷的冬天，没有足够的能源供应——这是一个真正的风险——我们就会随机停电，而不是对非家庭用电进行定量配给，这样弱势群体就不会发现自己没有暖气了？”他问道。
The UK is far less reliant than some European countries on Russian gas but the scramble for supplies caused by the war in Ukraine has threatened to have a knock-on effect on supplies to Britain.
与一些欧洲国家相比，英国对俄罗斯天然气的依赖程度要低得多，但乌克兰战争引发的对天然气供应的争夺，可能会对英国的天然气供应产生连锁反应。
与一些欧洲国家相比，英国对俄罗斯天然气的依赖程度要低得多，但乌克兰战争引发的对天然气供应的争夺，可能会对英国的天然气供应产生连锁反应。
Rees-Mogg is reportedly negotiating deals with two gas exporting countries, Qatar and Norway, over long-term supply contracts that would commit the UK to buying gas in large quantities at an agreed price for more than a decade. That is likely to prompt concerns that the UK’s net zero decarbonisation goals could be at risk.
据报道，里斯-莫格正在与卡塔尔和挪威这两个天然气出口国就长期供应合同进行谈判，英国将在十多年的时间里以商定的价格大量购买天然气。这可能会引发人们的担忧，即英国的净零脱碳目标可能面临风险。
据报道，里斯-莫格正在与卡塔尔和挪威这两个天然气出口国就长期供应合同进行谈判，英国将在十多年的时间里以商定的价格大量购买天然气。这可能会引发人们的担忧，即英国的净零脱碳目标可能面临风险。
At a Centre for Policy Studies fringe event at the Tory party conference on Tuesday, Rees-Mogg failed to say he was confident the lights would be kept on this winter.
在周二保守党会议的政策研究中心边缘活动上，里斯-莫格没有表示他有信心今年冬天电灯会一直亮着。
在周二保守党会议的政策研究中心边缘活动上，里斯-莫格没有表示他有信心今年冬天电灯会一直亮着。
“There will be a report out fairly shortly from the National Grid going through all the risks for the winter, and what may help us and what may not help us, what the options are and what things can be done,” he said. “I think I shouldn’t pre-empt it.”
他说：“英国国家电网很快就会发布一份报告，介绍冬季的所有风险，哪些可能对我们有帮助，哪些可能没有帮助，有哪些选择，可以做些什么。我觉得我不应该越俎代庖。”
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他说：“英国国家电网很快就会发布一份报告，介绍冬季的所有风险，哪些可能对我们有帮助，哪些可能没有帮助，有哪些选择，可以做些什么。我觉得我不应该越俎代庖。”
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A business department spokesperson said: “There are no plans for the government to tell the public to reduce usage for the sake of our energy supplies. The UK has a secure and diverse energy system, and we are confident that the steps we are taking will protect security of electricity and gas supplies.”
一位商务部发言人说：“政府没有计划告诉公众为了我们的能源供应而减少使用。英国的能源体系安全多样，我们相信我们正在采取的措施将保护电力和天然气供应的安全。”
一位商务部发言人说：“政府没有计划告诉公众为了我们的能源供应而减少使用。英国的能源体系安全多样，我们相信我们正在采取的措施将保护电力和天然气供应的安全。”
National Grid declined to comment.
而国家电网拒绝对此置评。
而国家电网拒绝对此置评。
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Privatization of energy doesn’t work. Look at the places with blackouts: Texas and California have privatized energy and forced blackouts. Time to nationalize
能源私有化是行不通的。看看停电的地方：德克萨斯州和加利福尼亚州实行了能源私有化，于是出现了强制停电。是时候国有化了
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I mean here its a combination of both causing the problem. Privatisation would normally just increase the price until supply met demand.
But government is subsiding costs for people to use it, but there is no way to increase supply to match.
State owned would have the same problem. There isn't enough gas.
我的意思是，这是两者的结合造成的问题。私有化通常只会提高价格，直到供给满足需求。
但政府正在补贴人们使用它的成本，但没有办法增加供应来匹配。
国有企业也会面临同样的问题。因为气不够了。
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If the Uk only has 3 years of gas reserves left, then maybe it needs to rethink whether gas is the fuel to combine with solar, wind and tides. Maybe nuclear? I don’t know but that does need to be figured out and invested in. Nationalization is a long term issue that will eventually have to happen.
如果英国的天然气储量只剩下3年，那么也许它需要重新考虑天然气是否应该与太阳能、风能和潮汐结合。也许核能？我不知道，但这确实需要搞清楚，需要投入。国有化是一个长期的议题，躲不掉的。
Its more like 5-6 years because we're a net importer / can't get it out the ground fast enough to use only our own.
We've been massively ramping up on wind and solar. Energy use per capita has also been falling. I believe the long term expectation is renewables with some nuclear and storage.
更可能需要5-6年，因为我们是一个净进口国，不能很快地就把天然气从地底下抽出来实现自给自足。
我们一直在大力发展风能和太阳能。人均能源消耗也一直在下降。我相信，长期的预期是可再生能源 + 一些核能和存储。
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State owned would have the same problem. There isn't enough gas.
Only if the supply isn't ring-fenced.
The third reason Truss' hard-on for fracking is -- after the environmental issues and the fact the government ran on a manifesto that explicitly said no fracking -- is that the supply goes on the open market and it doesn't help the UK.
The UK is absurdly well situated for renewables and has a supply of oil in the North Sea which can be drawn on until things are up and running. A nationalised energy company should primarily serve the people of the nation; though with enough investment in renewables we would be able to go further and supply our European neighbours (with the benefit of supplying clean energy and defraying some of our costs).
“国有企业也会面临同样的问题。因为气不够了”
除非供给没有被封锁。
特拉斯（在环境问题和政府的宣言明确表示不使用水力压裂法之后）坚持使用水力压裂法的第三个原因是公开市场上依然有（来自水力压裂法的）供应，这对英国没有帮助。
在可再生能源方面，英国的地理位置非常优越，北海有充足的石油供应，在一切恢复正常运行之前，英国都可以利用这些石油。一家国有化的能源公司应该主要为国家人民服务；尽管在可再生能源方面有足够的投资，我们将能够走得更远，为我们的欧洲邻国提供能源（获得提供清洁能源的好处，并为我们抵消部分成本）。
The government still has a massive amount of input on energy sourcing. Between subsidies, investment, licensing and planning permission it drives which sources supply us. Nationalisation would make zero difference because its all been driven by government decisions anyway.
We don't burn oil for electricity because it leads to far higher emissions. We went for gas because it was a quick to implement major improvement on coal while we could build out renewables. There has been a huge amount of push for that cross bench through both Tory and Labour governments.
Two years ago nobody thought a full out large scale war in Europe was remotely likely to happen and in 5 years we'll be massively less dependent on gas anyway (hydrogen introduction to gas networks next year, big push towards air source heat pumps, massive amounts of wind and to a lesser extent solar coming online).
政府在能源采购方面仍有大量投入。在补贴、投资、许可证和规划许可之间，它决定了哪些来源向我们供应。国有化不会有任何区别，因为这一切都是由政府决策驱动的。
我们不燃烧石油发电，因为它会导致更高的排放量。我们选择了天然气，因为它可以迅速实现对煤炭的重大改进，同时我们可以建设可再生能源。在保守党和工党政府中，有大量的跨党派推动。
两年前，没有人认为欧洲有可能发生一场全面的大规模战争，5年后我们将大大减少对天然气的依赖（氢气将于明年引入天然气网络，大力推进空气源热泵，大量的风能和较小程度上的太阳能将上线）。
Texas is a pretty special case though. They didn't want to be lixed to anyone else's grids because they didn't want to help anyone else and they failed pathetically to prepare for hot or cold weather...
不过德州是一个非常特殊的案例。他们自己不想连接到任何人的电网，因为他们不想帮助任何人，他们在为炎热或寒冷的天气做准备方面很糟糕……
I don’t get this. Only a few months ago they were saying that they only import 4% of gas from Russia and there was nothing to worry about. The remainder predominantly coming from the US and Qatar (50%). So the question is why they would run out. The only reason I can think of is that the government was too slow to act to make sure deals were in place this winter with the US, Norway and Qatar, and as a result other more proactive countries and trading blocks such as the EU (ironically), have signed deals ahead of them for a guaranteed supply. In which case the energy minister needs to be fired.
我不明白。就在几个月前，他们还说他们只从俄罗斯进口4%的天然气，没什么好担心的。其余主要来自美国和卡塔尔（50%）。问题是为什么它们会耗尽。我能想到的唯一原因是，政府在确保今年冬天与美国、挪威和卡塔尔达成协议方面行动太慢，结果导致其他更积极主动的国家和欧盟（好讽刺）等贸易集团抢先于它们签署了协议，以保证供应。如果是这种情况，能源大臣应该被解雇。
Because despite us not relying on Russia, we do rely on 3rd countries, and particularly pipelines to the continent.
We currently have about 5 days of gas storage capacity. We used to have another 10 days or so but that was shut down in 2017. The rationale behind closing that was the cost to refurbish it and keep it operating safely was too great, along with us now relying primarily on imported liquified natural gas as a back up.
So our gas mix today is about 48% supplied from UK gas reserves in the North Sea, though it is important to note the UK doesn’t ‘own’ that gas, the private energy companies like Shell and BP do, which is why we’re having to buy it at extortionate prices on the international market.
因为尽管我们不依赖俄罗斯，但我们确实依赖第三国，特别是通往欧洲大陆的管道。
我们目前有大约5天的储气能力。我们曾经还有10天左右的时间，但在2017年被关闭了。关闭的理由是，翻新储气库和保持它的安全运行的成本太大，加上我们现在主要依赖进口液化天然气作为后盾。
因此，我们今天的天然气组合大约48%来自英国在北海的天然气储备，尽管需要注意的是，英国并不“拥有”这些天然气，而是壳牌和BP等私营能源公司拥有，这就是为什么我们不得不在国际市场上以高昂的价格购买天然气。
Then there is about another 10% supplied by pipelines from continental Europe with Denmark, the Netherlands, France and Belgium all usually sending supplies our way under the channel. This winter it is that supply is at risk for obvious reasons, there is likely to be little spare capacity in Europe so we should expect that element to be disrupted. It’s also worth noting that through the summer we have been processing LNG at our terminals in the UK and using that same pipeline to export gas back to Europe to help them fill their gas reserves to make up for the Nord Stream supply issues.
Qatar and the USA are the next largest suppliers, this is all LNG shipped over on tankers, as is the remainder of supply from Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago etc. again all of this supply is secure.
So the shortfall is effectively the cross channel continental supply, Europe is likely to be in gas deficit this winter and so expected flows are likely not to materialise. With other countries competing for supply it really isn’t that simple to suddenly find alternatives, so unless we dramatically reduce our consumption there is going to be a shortfall.
另外30%由挪威提供。这些天然气是非常安全的，通过北海下的管道从他们的天然气储备中输送过来。
还有大约10%是通过欧洲大陆的管道供应的，丹麦、荷兰、法国和比利时通常都是通过这条海峡向我们输送天然气。今年冬天，由于明显的原因，供应面临风险，欧洲可能几乎没有闲置天然气，因此我们应该预期这一因素将受到干扰。值得注意的是，整个夏天，我们一直在英国的终端处理液化天然气，并使用同一管道将天然气出口到欧洲，以帮助他们填补天然气储备，以弥补北溪供应问题。
卡塔尔和美国是第二大供应国，所有的液化天然气都是用油轮运过来的，其余的来自阿尔及利亚、埃及、尼日利亚、特立尼达和多巴哥等国的供应也是如此，所有这些供应都是安全的。
因此，短缺实际上是跨海峡来自欧洲大陆的供应，欧洲今年冬天可能会出现天然气短缺，因此预期的供应可能不会实现。在其他国家争夺供应的情况下，突然找到替代方案真的不是那么简单，所以除非我们大幅减少我们的消费，否则就会出现短缺。
The simple truth is we don’t know what is going to happen, but the fact there has been no proactive attempt to reduce consumption, particularly as our island nation mentality means we’ve tended to see the Ukraine war as a them problem (referring to continental Europe), means that while Germans have been spending their weekends at the hardware stores insulating their homes and buying thick curtains and jumpers, we have been getting told there isn’t a problem beyond the cost of gas and carrying on regardless.
What a great time to have a haunted broomstick as energy minister.
这在现实中意味着什么呢？家庭的天然气供应不会被切断。能源的大消费者——陶瓷和玻璃的生产，农产品和其他工业客户将是优先考虑被断气的。不幸的是，由于我们也一直在大力追求电网的脱碳，我们的大部分燃煤电厂已经被天然气取代了。这些都有被关闭的风险，这将导致超负载停电。在这方面，能源密集型客户将在消费者、小企业或关键服务被断能之前被限能。
简单的事实是，我们不知道会发生什么，但事实上，我们一直没有积极尝试减少消费，特别是我们的岛国心态意味着我们倾向于把乌克兰战争视为一个“他们的问题”（指欧洲大陆），意味着当德国人在五金店花周末为他们的房子加装保温，购买厚窗帘和套头衫时，我们却一直被告知，除了用气成本外，没有其他问题，所以我们不管不顾地继续下去。
让一个扫把星当能源大臣真是太棒了。
One aspect of this that doesn’t appear to be mentioned much yet is how blackouts are going to play in Scotland with regard to support for independence.
Scotland exports electricity most of the time. We’re in a fortunate position to have a lot of wind and hydro and pumped storage relative to our size - in fact 97% of the year we generate more electricity just from wind than our domestic electricity requirements are. We’d likely have even more if it wasn’t for the Tories near total effective ban on new inshore wind turbine developments.
In addition to all that Scotland has gas fired power stations and about 50% of the UK’s gas production.
With all that in mind how well do you thing sitting in the cold and dark (and Scotland is a fair bit colder and darker than most of the U.K. in winter too) is going to go down with the average voter here?
People are already fairly pissed off that Scotland gets charged more for electricity than the rest of the U.K. despite generating a surplus.
With another independence vote likely coming up in the next year or two blackouts ain’t going to do the unxist side any favours.
有一个方面似乎还没有被过多提及，那就是停电将如何影响苏格兰对独立的支持。
苏格兰大部分时间都在输出电力。相对于我们的规模，我们很幸运地拥有大量的风能、水力发电和抽水蓄能——事实上，一年中97%的时间我们仅靠风力发电的电量就超过了我们国内的电力需求。如果不是保守党几乎完全有效地禁止新的近海风力涡轮机的进展，我们可能还会有更多电力。
除此之外，苏格兰还有燃气发电站，大约占英国天然气发电量的50%。
考虑到所有这些，你认为坐在寒冷和黑暗（苏格兰的冬天比英国大部分地区都要更冷和黑暗一点）中的普通选民会接受吗？
人们已经对苏格兰的电费比英国其他地区要高而感到相当愤怒了，尽管苏格兰有电力盈余。
明年或两年内可能就会出现另一场独立投票，而停电不会给支持统一的一方带来任何好处。