In eight weeks roughly 1m football fans will descend on Qatar for the World Cup, many of them travelling via neighbouring cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi. They will find a Gulf in the midst of a $3.5trn energy bonanza, courtesy of Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. Western politicians facing a cost-of-living crisis are once again paying homage to the royalty of the fossil-fuel economy. Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, is due to visit this week; in July President Joe Biden fist-bumped Muhammad bin Salman (mbs), the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, a country he had branded a pariah for its human-rights abuses.

八周后，大约一百万足球迷将云集卡塔尔观看世界杯，许多球迷来自迪拜、阿布扎比等周边城市。承蒙弗拉基米尔·普京发动的乌克兰战争，他们将发现海湾地区走上了3.5万亿美元的能源发财之路。西方的政客们正在面临生活成本危机，他们再次向这个化石燃料经济体的王室致敬。德国总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨将于本周出访该地区；七月份，美国总统乔·拜登与沙特阿拉伯事实上的统治者穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼碰拳，他曾经说沙特阿拉伯是践踏人权的贱民国家。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


As we explain this week, the latest oil and gas boom is taking place alongside deeper trends: a re-engineering of global energy flows in response to Western sanctions and climate change, and the remaking of geopolitical alliances in the Middle East as it adapts to a multipolar world in which America is no longer a reliable guarantor of security. The result is a new-look Gulf that is destined to remain pivotal for decades to come. Whether it will be a source of stability, though, is far from clear.

正如我们本周报道的，最近油气产业的繁荣伴随着更深层次的趋势：为了应对西方制裁和气候变化，全球能源供应的格局发生了改变；随着中东地区适应多极化世界，美国不再是可靠的安全卫士，中东地区再次出现地缘政治联盟。因此在未来几十年里，焕然一新的海湾地区必将继续发挥关键性作用，但能否成为稳定之源尚不明朗。

The Gulf states belong to a region that has had a dreadful two decades. Amid wars and uprisings, a million people have died violently in the Middle East and its share of world gdp has dropped from 4% in 2012 to 3%. America has cut its military presence following the debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan, leaving old allies, including the Gulf states, fearful of a security vacuum filled by Iran and its proxies. The three Gulf energy powerhouses of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (uae) are autocracies facing a long-run decline in world demand for fossil fuels, even as they suffer from lower rainfall and higher temperatures because of climate change.

海湾国家所在的地区经历了可怕的二十年。在战争与动乱中，中东地区有100万人死于暴力，占世界GDP的份额从2012年的4%下滑至3%。美国在伊拉克和阿富汗彻底失败后减少了驻军，导致包括海湾国家在内的老牌盟友担心，伊朗及其代理人会填补安全真空。三个海湾能源强国卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋都是独裁国家，它们长期面临世界对化石燃料需求的下降，以及气候变化导致的高温少雨天气。

It is a daunting starting-point, but two new forces are in play. One is changes in energy markets. At current prices, the six Gulf states—the others are Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman—could earn $3.5trn over the next five years. Western sanctions on Russia are redirecting how energy is traded around the world. As Russian output flows to the east, the Gulf stands to become a bigger supplier to the West.

这是一个可怕的开端，但两股新生力量正在发挥作用。首先，能源市场发生变化。按照现有价格，六个海湾国家——其余三个是巴林、科威特、阿曼——将在未来五年内赚取3.5万亿美元。西方对俄罗斯的制裁正在改变世界能源的交易方向，随着俄罗斯向东方供应能源，海湾地区必将成为西方更重要的供应方。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


In response to tight energy markets, Saudi Arabia and the uae are ramping up capital investment in oil with the long-run goal of being the last men standing in the industry, enjoying the lowest costs and least-dirty extraction. Together, they aim to raise output from 13m barrels per day last year to 16m in the medium term. Their market share will rise as governments worldwide clamp down on emissions and global demand for oil falls. As Qatar expands its North Field project in the next few years, it will become to liquefied natural gas (lng) what Taiwan is to advanced semiconductors: its annual target output is equivalent to 33% of all lng traded worldwide in 2021. From its point of view, the timing, amid a global gas squeeze, could not be better.

为了应对紧俏的能源市场，沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋增加了对石油的资本投入，长远目标是成为行业内的一枝独秀，以最低的成本和最小的污染开采石油。中期目标是将石油产量从去年每天1300万桶提升至1600万桶。随着世界各国政府限制排放和全球对石油需求的下降，它们的市场份额将继续增长。随着卡塔尔在未来几年内实施北油气田扩建项目，它在液化天然气领域的地位将不亚于台湾地区在先进半导体领域的地位：年产量目标相当于2021年世界液化天然气总交易量的33%。从卡塔尔的角度来看，当前的全球天然气荒是最好的契机。

Even as energy enriches the Gulf—and adds to the heavy burden of stabilising the world’s climate—the second force at work is a new alignment of power in the Middle East. Over the past decade Iran has established a sphere of influence across a northern belt including Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. A reaction is in full swing as most Gulf states, Egypt, Israel and others grow closer. This is reflected in the Abraham accords, signed by Israel and two Arab states in 2020, which are helping normalise relations in the region.

在海湾地区依靠能源走向富裕的同时——加重了全球气候稳定的负担——第二股力量是中东地区再次出现权力结盟。在过去的十年里，伊朗在北方地区建立了势力范围，包括伊拉克、黎巴嫩、叙利亚。这引起了巨大反响，大多数海湾国家、埃及、以色列及其他国家变得日趋紧密。2020年，以色列与两个阿拉伯国家签订了旨在推动地区关系正常化的《亚伯拉罕协议》，由此可见一斑。

This nascent bloc is partly about developing common defences against Iranian drones and missiles, probably using Israeli technology. But it is also a bet that trade can make these countries richer in a region with puny cross-border lixs. Already, Israelis have made over half a million trips to the uae, while the Gulf states have invested $22bn in Egypt this year. Saudi Arabia and Jordan may one day join the Abraham accords, especially if Israel includes the Palestinians, creating a contiguous trading zone. This bloc will also hope to increase its lixs with the rest of the world. In February the uae signed a trade deal with India. As London and Hong Kong stall as financial centres, Dubai is seeking to become the world’s last entrepot, where you can do business with anyone.

新生的集团在一定程度上是为了研发针对伊朗无人机和导弹的共同防御系统，技术可能来自以色列。但这也是一场赌注，即在一个跨境联系薄弱的地区，贸易能使这些国家变得更加富裕。以色列人前往阿联酋旅行已超过50万次，海湾国家今年已向埃及投资220亿美元。沙特阿拉伯和约旦有一天可能也会加入《亚伯拉罕协议》，如果包括巴勒斯坦人在内的以色列打造边境贸易区则可能性更大。该集团还将有望与世界其他国家增进关系，阿联酋与印度在二月份签订了贸易协议。随着伦敦和香港的金融中心地位不复存在，迪拜渴望成为世界最后的贸易中心，人们在那里可以自由地经商。

An obvious implication is that the Gulf is likely to remain as important in world affairs in the coming decades as it was in the 20th century, despite the hopes of some American strategists that its significance would fade. In oil and gas its share of Europe’s imports could rise from under 10% today to over 20%. The Gulf states’ economic heft within the Middle East is at its highest since 1981, at 60% of regional gdp, and will rise more. In finance the Gulf’s $3trn of reserve and sovereign assets will grow, leading to more investments abroad, such as Qatar’s stake in Porsche’s offering next week. In diplomacy expect it to flex its muscles more beyond its immediate region: the uae is already a force in the Horn of Africa.

显著的影响是未来几十年会像二十世纪那样，海湾地区可能继续在国际事务中发挥重要作用，尽管某些美国战略学者盼望海湾地区的重要性下降。海湾地区占欧洲进口石油和天然气的份额可能从目前不足10%增至20%以上。海湾国家在中东地区的经济影响力已达到1981年以来的最高水平，占地区GDP的60%，并将继续提升。在金融领域，海湾地区的3万亿美元外汇储备和主权资产将继续增加，对外投资也随之增加，例如：卡塔尔在下周的“保时捷”首次公开募股中持有股份。在外交领域，海湾国家有望在本地区以外发挥更大的影响力：阿联酋已经成为“非洲之角”的一股势力。

Yet the one thing the new era may not bring is stability, because the very forces behind these opportunities also create volatility. The quest for a security arrangement that relies less on America could backfire. Iran’s aggression could lead to a regional arms race fuelled by energy rents, just as the oil booms of the 1970s saw military spending explode. If Iran gains a nuclear weapon, countries such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey may want a bomb of their own. The last chapter of the fossil-fuel age could yet draw China and India deeper into the region.

但是，新时代可能无法带来稳定，因为创造机遇的力量也会引发动荡。追求旨在减少对美国依赖的安全协议可能适得其反，正如20世纪70年代的石油繁荣导致军费激增一样，伊朗的攻击性可能导致区域军备竞赛，并由于能源租金而加剧。如果伊朗得到了核武器，沙特和土耳其等国可能也想拥有自己的核弹。化石燃料时代的末期可能使中国和印度更深地卷入该地区。

However, the greatest potential source of instability lies at home. The Gulf states are now trying to follow a mind-bending economic trajectory. They plan to expand fossil-fuel production for 20 or so years and then slash it after 2045. It is possible to see how this would work in theory: the huge rents would need to be quickly reinvested in a high-tech economy based on renewable power, hydrogen and desalination systems, which has enough dynamism to create millions of jobs for a bulge of young people. In practice the task is monumental. Even if it worked, it would put the Paris-agreement climate targets far beyond reach.

然而，国内是动荡最大的潜在根源。目前，海湾国家试图走的经济路线令人费解，他们打算在未来大约20年内增加化石燃料的产量，到2045年以后减产。理论上是能够奏效的：快速将巨额租金再投资于以可再生能源、氢能源、海水淡化装置为基础的高科技经济，这股活力足以为年轻人创造数百万个工作岗位。实际上，这项任务意义深远，即使奏效了也会使《巴黎协定》的气候目标变得遥不可及。

The Gulf’s autocrats believe they have the long-term perspective to manage this shift. But they are prone to oppression, cronyism and vanity projects. A new Gulf is emerging, but some things remain the same. It is still going to be volatile—and impossible for the world to ignore.

海湾地区的独裁者们相信自己拥有远见卓识去应对这种变化，但他们倾向于压迫、任人唯亲、面子工程。海湾地区正在呈现出新气象，但有些事情不会改变。这里仍将动荡——世界不可能视而不见。