Scientists now have unambiguous proof that a phenomenon critical to predicting the impact of climate change exists.
Researchers announced Thursday that they had detected the sea level “fingerprint” of the Greenland ice sheet melt, pinpointing the unique pattern of sea level change lixed to the melting ice.
It’s the first time such a fingerprint has been definitively measured. While scientists agreed such fingerprints theoretically exist, the dynamic nature of the ocean had made it difficult to identify them confidently — until now.

科学家们现在有了明确的证据，证明了存在一种对预测气候变化影响至关重要的现象
研究人员周四宣布，他们已经检测到了格陵兰冰盖融化的海平面 "指纹"，准确地指出了与冰层融化有关的海平面变化的独特模式。
这是首次对这种指纹进行明确测量。虽然科学家们曾认为这种指纹在理论上是存在的，但是海洋的动态性质使得我们很难有把握地识别它们，不过现在可以了。

The findings, which were possible with the help of high-resolution satellite observations, detail the unique pattern of sea level change lixed to the Greenland ice sheet. The fingerprints are factored into models to predict overall sea level rise.
The discovery confirms and adds confidence to the sea level changes forecast by computational models. They are critical for understanding the consequences of climate change and preparing for future hazards. It is now more than clear that the melting of the Greenland ice sheet is accelerating, said Sophie Coulson a postdoctoral fellow at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Coulson is the lead author of the study that led to the findings, which were published in the journal Science.

借助于高分辨率卫星观测，这些发现详细描述了与格陵兰冰原相关的海平面变化的独特模式。这些指纹被纳入预测整体海平面上升的模型之中。
这一发现证实并增加了计算模型对海平面变化预报的可信度。它们对于理解气候变化的后果和为未来的灾害做好准备至关重要。洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室的博士后苏菲·库尔森表示，现在非常清楚的是，格陵兰冰原正在加速融化。库尔森是这项研究的主要作者，该研究导致了这一发现，并发表在《科学》杂志上。

Until recently, fingerprint science was restrained by a lack of satellite observations — records documented only the southern tip of Greenland, making it difficult to examine the oceans around it.
The Greenland ice sheet, which covers almost 80% of the island country, contains enormous quantities of frozen water. The rapid melting of the Greenland ice sheet is responsible for 20% of the current sea level rise globally, and a recent study predicted its disintegration would raise global sea levels by at least 10 inches, even if people stop burning fossil fuels.

直到最近，指纹科学还因缺乏卫星观测而受到限制，只有格陵兰岛南端的记录，这使得研究其周围的海洋变得困难。
格陵兰冰原覆盖了这座岛国近80%的面积，其中含有大量的冰冻水。目前全球海平面上升的20%是由于格陵兰冰原的快速融化造成的，最近的一项研究预测，即使人们停止燃烧化石燃料，它的解体也会使全球海平面上升至少10英寸。

The study was possible thanks to new satellite data shared by the Copernicus Marine Service, data that spanned over 30 years and extended to higher latitudes. Coulson plugged observations of ice-thickness change into a computational model and created a prediction of sea level from 1993 to 2019. She then compared the forecast against the new satellite data — and found a perfect match.

这项研究之所以成为可能，是因为哥白尼海洋局分享了新的卫星数据，这些数据跨越了30多年，并延伸到了更高的纬度。库尔森将冰层厚度变化的观测结果输入一个计算模型，并对1993年至2019年的海平面进行了预测。然后，她将预报与新的卫星数据进行了比较，发现完美匹配。

“It was really an exciting moment for us when we first looked at that side-by-side comparison of those observations to the model predictions,” Coulson said. “The images were staggeringly similar.”

库尔森说：“当我们第一次看到这些观测数据与模型预测数据并排比较时，这真是一个令人兴奋的时刻。这些图像惊人地相似。”

It was especially surprising because it’s unusual in geophysics to prove something is happening with a certainty of more than 99.9%, Coulson said. But it was clear that the pattern of sea level change revealed by the satellites was the fingerprint of the melting ice sheet — and that the estimation of sea level change predicted by both earlier models and Coulson’s new one was accurate.

库尔森说，这尤其让人惊讶，因为在地球物理学中，以超过99.9%的确定性来证明某些事情正在发生是不寻常的。但是很明显，卫星揭示的海平面变化模式是正在融化的冰盖的指纹，而且早期模型和库尔森的新模型预测的海平面变化的估计都是准确的。

“We can really say with great certainty that sea level fingerprints exist,” Coulson said. “The theory was correct.”

库尔森表示“我们可以非常肯定地说，海平面指纹是存在的，这个理论是正确的。”

Knowing fingerprints can be a tool to accurately predict sea level change is critical because the future of Earth’s oceans is so uncertain.

了解指纹可以成为准确预测海平面变化的工具，这一点至关重要，因为地球海洋的未来十分不确定。

“We know global sea levels will rise and that the amount and pace of sea level rise will depend on our greenhouse gas emissions,” Yarrow Axford, an associate professor at Northwestern University who studies the impact of climate change on Greenland’s glaciers and ice sheet, said by email. She was not a part of Coulson’s study.

“我们知道全球海平面将上升，海平面上升的幅度和速度将取决于我们的温室气体排放，”研究气候变化对格陵兰岛冰川和冰盖影响的美国西北大学副教授亚罗·阿克斯福德在电子邮件中表示。她没有参与库尔森研究的对象。

“But how fast the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will respond to warming is a really big unknown, and frankly a very scary unknown,” Axford said.

“但是格陵兰岛和南极洲的冰原对气候变暖的反应速度究竟有多快，仍然是个未知数，坦率地说，这是一个非常可怕的未知数”阿克斯福德说。

Fingerprints are already used to inform ocean level projections and coastal planning. In the U.S., an estimated 30% of the population lives in coastline communities. Every inch of sea level rise is expected to make coastal storms more catastrophic for those populations.

指纹已经被用于海平面预测和海岸规划。在美国，估计有30%的人口生活在沿海社区。预计海平面每上升一英寸，都会使沿海风暴对这些人口造成更大的灾难。

That is partly because sea level changes can lead to more destructive storm surges, one of the deadliest aspects of hurricanes. Hurricane Ian’s storm surge, along with its winds and flooding rain, has caused devastation across Cuba and Florida. Sea level rise, along with other aspects of climate change, is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of hurricanes.

这在一定程度上是因为海平面的变化可能导致更具破坏性的风暴潮，这是飓风最致命的方面之一。飓风伊恩的风暴潮，以及它带来的风和洪水雨，已经在古巴和佛罗里达造成了破坏。海平面上升，以及气候变化的其他方面，预计将增加飓风的强度和频率。

“We’re already being forced to adapt to sea level rise around the world, and we need to do a lot more still to prepare,” Axford said. “Having decent projections of how fast our coastlines will retreat is essential for making tough decisions and the right big investments now in preparation for future sea level rise.”

“我们已经被迫适应世界各地的海平面上升，我们需要做更多的准备,”埃克斯福德说。“对于我们的海岸线将以多快的速度撤退，有一个合理的预测，对于做出艰难决定和现在进行正确的大规模投资，为未来海平面上升做好准备，是至关重要的。”