话题讨论：欧洲的冬天会有多糟糕?
How Bad Will Europe's Winter Be?
译文简介
话题讨论：欧洲的冬天会有多糟糕?
正文翻译
Into Europe: Europe is heading into its most difficult winter in a generation, with Russia having all but cut-off gas supplies to Europe, begs the question: can Europe survive the winter without gas?
《进入欧洲》：随着俄罗斯几乎切断对欧洲的天然气供应，欧洲正进入几十年来最艰难的冬天，这就引发了一个问题：没有天然气，欧洲能熬过这个冬天吗?
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0:00 1- Introduction
0:50 2- The current gas situation
2:11 3- How much pain will Europe face?
4:54 [Sponsored Segment]
5:54 4- Solving Europe's two problems for the winter
8:38 5- What we still don't know for this Winter
0:00 1 -介绍。
0:50 2-目前的天然气状况。
2:11 3-欧洲将面临多少痛苦?
4:54(赞助部分)
5:54 4-解决欧洲冬季的两个问题。
8:38 5-对于这个冬天，还有什么是我们不知道的。
0:50 2- The current gas situation
2:11 3- How much pain will Europe face?
4:54 [Sponsored Segment]
5:54 4- Solving Europe's two problems for the winter
8:38 5- What we still don't know for this Winter
0:00 1 -介绍。
0:50 2-目前的天然气状况。
2:11 3-欧洲将面临多少痛苦?
4:54(赞助部分)
5:54 4-解决欧洲冬季的两个问题。
8:38 5-对于这个冬天，还有什么是我们不知道的。
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One thing to remember here is that natural gas is only about 25% of the EU energy mix, and the most dependent countries (Italy and the Netherlands) are not the ones with the coldest winter. The real problem is that the expensive gas is making German and Dutch manufacturing less competitive
这里需要记住的一件事是，天然气只占欧盟能源组合的25%左右，而对天然气依赖最大的国家(意大利和荷兰)并不是冬天最冷的国家。真正的问题是，昂贵的天然气正在削弱德国和荷兰制造业的竞争力。
The netherlands is not dependent on russian gas. We have a large gas reserve, it is a political choice. Because of earthquakes in the area.
荷兰不依赖俄罗斯的天然气。我们有大量的天然气储备，这是一个政治选择。因为该地区发生了（政治）地震。
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@Pier Boers but it's still affected by the price because less Russian export means bigger demand for alternative sources
@Pier Boers 但它仍然受到价格的影响，因为俄罗斯出口减少意味着对替代能源的需求增加了。
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@daniel halachev undoubtedly. But then you remember that only like half of that came from Russia to begin with. And if the price of gas doubles, that would mean energy prices rise by 25%. So even though it is a lot, the effects on energy as a whole are perhaps less than you'd expect from the situation we're in
@daniel halachev 毫无疑问。但你要知道，一开始只有一半来自俄罗斯。如果天然气价格翻倍，那就意味着能源价格将上涨25%。所以，尽管数量很多，但从整体上来说，我们所处的情况受到能源的影响可能比所预期的要小。
@Oivin F One point Into Europe makes in the video ( 3:02 ), is that there is only one price for electricity, regardless of where it comes from; this means that if gas price doubles, then so will electricity in general, despite gas only being 25% of the energy source.
@Oivin F 《进入欧洲》在视频3:02中提出的一个观点是，无论电力来自哪里，都只有一个价格；这意味着，如果天然气价格翻倍，那么电力价格总体上也会翻倍，尽管天然气只占能源的25%。
现在，这个观点似乎有点简单化，我不确定它的原理是什么(不同的公司可以提供不同的电价，所以如何协调?)，但这可以解释为什么在欧盟的某些案例中，电费上涨了十倍多。
it is actually 40% not 25%, this drop in energy will cause mass shutdowns of factories,espeically heavy industry that uses alot of gas like steel plants. this will all lead to compound effects and the very possible de-industrialization of europe. it won't just be " less competitive ".
实际上是40%而不是25%，能源的下降将导致大量工厂关闭，特别是像钢铁厂这样使用大量天然气的重工业。这一切都将导致复合效应，并极有可能导致欧洲的去工业化，而不仅仅是“竞争力下降”。
@daniel halachev absolutely, if an industry runs for 24 hours, it can only run for 18 hrs and if any industry runs more than 18 hrs, other industries will face shortages of more than 25%. The same goes for domestic consumption, which will even be higher in countries like Germany. So 25% isn't a small number. it will definitely impact the production, revenues, jobs and ultimately purchasing power. But if the lower production results in higher demands overseas then big industries might make good profits and makeup for their low production. So, it may impact not just the economy of EU countries but also around the world.
@daniel halachev 当然，如果一个行业之前运行24小时，现在它只能运行18小时，而且如果任何一个行业运行超过18小时，其他行业面临的短缺将超过25%。国内消费也是如此，德国等国的国内消费甚至会更高。所以25%不是一个小数字。它肯定会影响生产、收入、就业，最终影响购买力。但如果产量下降导致海外需求增加，那么大型工业可能获得良好的利润，弥补其产量的下降。因此，这不仅会影响到欧盟国家的经济，还会影响到世界各地的经济。
@Oivin F if europe was one energy system that worked together integrated, then you would be right. alas its not so the eastern fraction is just a little bit fu**ed
@Oivin F 如果欧洲的能源系统共同运作，那么你是对的。唉，不是这样的，只是东边部分地区糟糕一点。
@M5 Why is this like that? When it comes to the grid - there is no race, capitalism fails because there is only one grid. Gvmt created a simulated environment where providers bid, but somehow a slight change made it into the rules. We buy electricity on the highest bidder's price and not the lowest. Gvmt and lobbying at work.
@M5 为什么会这样? 说到电网——没有竞争，资本主义失败了，因为只有一个电网。政府创建了一个模拟环境，在这个环境中，提供者进行了竞标，但不知怎的，规则发生了一些细微的变化。我们按最高的出价买电，而不是按最低的。政府和游说发威了。
I’d be curious to see the average energy breakdown of a home according to latitude and how much better insulation and home design would offset some of the running costs.
我很想知道，不同纬度家庭的平均能源消耗是多少，以及更好的保温和家庭设计能抵消多少运行成本。
What's the point of that? it's already common sense and already known what the effects are of home insulation and design on running costs. ¯\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\_(ツ)_/¯
there's other variables that effect energy costs of a home not just insulation and design. So you can';t have an overall accurate breakdown. unless you want to have a list of all kinds of homes of difdferent sizes, radiators, boilers and many other variables that all have an effect on running costs.
有什么意义? 这已经是常识，人们已经知道家庭隔热和设计对运行成本的影响。
还有其他影响家庭能源成本的变量，而不仅仅是保温和设计。所以不可能有一个全面准确的分类。除非你想弄一个不同大小的各种各样的房子的列表，散热器，锅炉和许多其他变量都对运行成本有影响。
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Each country is a bit specific, however, this winter is not an issue and agree that next year will be more tricky.. We in the Czech republic had one of the highest % of Russian gas, however today we have full gas reserves + 65% already is from Norway. Electricity is not a problem as we have nuclear power plants and are an energy exporter and a lot of that electricity goes to Germany too to assist its industry. Prices are high but the government is assisting the common folk and finally, people will learn how to love consumption as there is a clear consumption of energy.. We will learn how to become more aware of how much we use for heating and lowering the thermostat by a couple of degrees... We will see what happens but I believe that these problems will lead FINALLY to a change in the energy market, sourcing and awareness. As a unx, we will help each other and get stronger.
每个国家的情况都有点独特，不过，今年冬天不是问题，大家都认为明年会更棘手。我们捷克共和国曾经是俄罗斯天然气占比最高的国家之一，然而今天我们的天然气储量已经达到65%，来自挪威。电力不是问题，因为我们有核电站，而且我们是能源出口国，很多电力也流向德国，以帮助其工业。价格很高，但政府在帮助老百姓，最后，人们将学会如何热爱消费，因为能源的消耗是清晰的。我们将学会更加清楚的认识到，我们在取暖方面用了多少钱，以及把取暖器降低几度能节省多少钱。我们会看到发生什么，但我相信这些问题最终会导致能源市场、采购和意识的改变。作为一个联盟，我们将互相帮助，并变得更强大。
big love from germany my czech brother. europe will stay strong <3
来自德国的爱，我的捷克兄弟。欧洲将保持强大。
a united EU is the solution. all working together. great to see.
一个团结的欧盟才是解决之道。大家都同心协力。很高兴看到这一点。
@BocaDelCielo Playa Agreed... Of course, disagreements will rise but I guess, for the time being, everyone realises we are on the same boat in murky waters and the best thing is to deal with these things together. Not a romantic notion but a necessity and prudent thing to do.
@BocaDelCielo Playa 同意……当然，分歧会出现，但我想，就目前而言，每个人都意识到我们身处于黑暗水域的同一条船上，最好的办法是一起解决这些问题。这不是一个浪漫的想法，而是一件必要和谨慎的事情。
Unless the crisis gets sharp enough, that solidarity will be overcome by self-preservation and the whole thing will become a mess.
除非危机变得足够尖锐，否则这种团结将被自我保护所取代，整个事情将变得一团糟。
我不是说会发生这种情况，但我认为你过于乐观了。特别是，既然“我们确实都在同一条船上”，但我们不能不大声说出是谁把这艘船引向了这种黑暗的水域。尤其是某些国家(东欧)，他们曾对这一进程发出警告，现在受到的打击往往比那些掌舵的国家(西欧)更大。
当一些参与者试图将利润“私有化”并分担风险时，很难推销团结。
@TheBlobik There is no denying that there is a dark side to politics but let´s hope that common interests and the knowledge we can be stronger as a group instead of individuals will prevail... The world is not what it was and it is not becoming a safer one that is for sure.
@TheBlobik 不可否认，政治有阴暗面，但我们应该希望共同的利益，以及“我们作为一个团体而不是个人将更强大”的认识将占据上风……世界已经不是过去的样子了，也肯定不会变得更安全。
Well Czech Republic has since 8 of september acess to LNG terminal that will cover 1/3 of our demand (and that is just one terminal. Our goverment plans to rent at least one more+finally finish the pipeline to Poland=conecting us to the gas from Norway)+we have one of the fullest dtorage (if the gas was cut of now we would last till the end of march with the same demand we do over the winter+it would last longer if we decided to save more than we do now).
自9月8日起，捷克共和国已接入液化天然气终端，将满足我们1/3的需求(而这只是一个终端。我们的政府计划再租用至少一个+最终建成通往波兰的管道=将我们与挪威的天然气连接起来)+我们有最充足的储备(如果现在天然气被切断，按照整个冬天一样多的需求计算，我们可以维持到三月底+如果我们决定更多的节约，储备将持续更长时间)。
Yes, Czech rep., Slovakia and Hungary will be fine. Shameful media makes it way worse than it really is.
是的，捷克，斯洛伐克和匈牙利都没问题。可耻的媒体把情况渲染的比实际更糟。
Bottom line: paradigm is changing but in the end we’ll adapt to this new situation , and probably for the best if it means reducing our dependence on Russian gas
底线：模式正在改变，但最终我们会适应这种新情况，如果这意味着减少我们对俄罗斯天然气的依赖，这可能是最好的结果。
all while robbing the working class blind
同时还掠夺蒙在鼓里的工人阶级的财产。
That is indeed a good thing to get rid of the dependence Europe has with Russian's gas BUT unfortunatly I think we'll pass from a dependence to another, maybe a stronger one what is more. After being dependant on the US for our defence, we'll depend on them for energy (and energy is everything). There is nothing to celebrate I'm afraid.
欧洲摆脱对俄罗斯天然气的依赖确实是一件好事，但不幸的是，我认为我们将从一种依赖过渡到另一种依赖，也许是一种更强的依赖。在国防上依赖美国之后，我们将在能源上依赖他们(而能源就是一切)。恐怕没什么好庆祝的。
@Guilhem Agreed, but since Europe doesn’t have much natural resources it’ll always depend on other countries, nothing new here. Now, if this situation can force European countries to rethink their energy policy that can be for the best, and by this I mean things like consuming less energy (that’s an easy one since we waste so much energy for nothing), rethink about what we want to do with nuclear power, etc.
There are so many things in so many areas that could be improved. Cheap energy is the curse that pushes us to consume always more and more, for the worse.
@Guilhem 同意，但由于欧洲没有太多的自然资源，它总是依赖其他国家，没什么新鲜的。现在，如果这种情况可以迫使欧洲国家重新思考他们的能源政策，可能是最好的，而且我的意思是比如消耗更少的能源(这很容易，因为我们白白浪费了太多能源)，重新思考我们要如何面对核能，等等。
在很多领域有很多事情需要改进。廉价能源是一种诅咒，它驱使我们不断地消耗越来越多的能源，结果却越来越糟。
What paradigm? :D
什么模式？
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@Stanislav Kanin when Europe was buying cheap Russian gas basically
@Stanislav Kanin 欧洲基本上在购买廉价的俄罗斯天然气时那种模式。
this will buy time for europe to make their offshore windmills and increase heating efficiency with ground source heat pumps. maybe france can build a few more nuclear plants for electricity export when wind is slow.
这将为欧洲制造海上风车和提高地源热泵的加热效率赢得时间。也许法国可以在风力不足的时候多建几座核电站，用于电力出口。
@Guilhem Agreed, I’m not that optimistic either. Hopefully this situation will help to implement new energy policies in European countries, for the best let’s hope …
@Guilhem 同意，我也不那么乐观。希望这种情况能帮助欧洲国家实施新的能源政策，这是最好的情况……
@Guilhem if europe becomes dependent on the us for both electricity and defense wouldnt that make it a colony of the usa?
@Guilhem 如果欧洲在电力和国防上都依赖于美国，那不就成了美国的殖民地了吗?
@Spencer Vance No. Were we a colony of Russia? There's your answer.
@Spencer Vance 不。我们过去是俄国的殖民地吗? 这是你的答案。
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Will be an interesting winter coming up... I just moved to Lithuania 2 years ago. Seeing the country building an LNG terminal and storage to keep for its citizen all the way to connecting the gas grid so they could help out Poland and Latvia if needed. Will truly be a winter of cozy clothing indoors. :)
这将会是一个有趣的冬天……我两年前刚搬到立陶宛。看到这个国家建造了一个液化天然气终端和储存设施，为其公民一直连接上天然气网络，这样他们就可以在需要的时候帮助波兰和拉脱维亚。这将是一个真正舒适的冬天，穿上室内衣服就好了。
Poland year consumption - 20 billion m3. storages contains - 3 billion, just saying
波兰年消耗量是200亿立方米。而储备是30亿立方米，只是提一嘴。
A couple of things to add, since I recorded the video there have been additional developments:
需要补充的是，自从我录制视频以来，有了更多的发展:
欧盟已宣布计划削减高峰时段5%的用电量。这是因为天然气在高峰时间被用来补充其余的电力组合。因此，在这个时候减少消耗将节省更多的天然气。
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此外，天然气分享协议遭到了一些国家的拒绝，这将影响到德国，进而影响到欧盟其他国家的经济状况，并加剧对欧盟的连锁效应。
"Additionally, there have been some refusals about the gas sharing deals"
lix/ source?
链接/来源呢？
This video was very detailed in describing what EU governments plan to do & "what could go wrong",
but there was disproportionally little said about what is already going very right, because of EU action:
这段视频非常详细地描述了欧盟政府的计划和“可能出现的错误”，但却很少提及由于欧盟的行动，已经做的非常正确的事情:
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1)储气率80-90%，提前2个月实现。
- energy savings on all fronts (gas, electricity, insluation),
- gas & non-gas energy diversification,
- new LNG gas import terminals & existing ones being hugely expanded,
- plans for new import pipelines & gas grids being connected,
- expectations that this winter will be one of the warmest,
2)正在兴建的新基础设施:
-各方面节约能源(煤气、电、暖气);
-天然气和非天然气能源多样化;
-新的液化天然气进口终端和现有终端正在大规模扩建;
-正在连接新的进口管道和天然气管网的计划;
-今年冬天预计将是最温暖的冬天之一，
总而言之，2022年的冬季似乎没有“分析师预测的”那么糟糕(公众得到的消息往往比计划晚了1-2个月)。
这使得2023年的冬天和未来的冬天比今年的冬天要轻松得多。
视频在某些方面非常详细和优秀，但在其他方面非常具有误导性，特别是关于电力市场如何设计和为什么运行方面。
政府正试图搞乱自由市场，寻找替罪羊来掩盖他们在“地缘战略”上的无能，呸呸呸“我们从俄罗斯获得50%的天然气吧，没事的。”
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我学的是电气工程-发电与传输，现在全职在股票市场工作。
观察：媒体在制造恐慌。当人们恐慌时，媒体就会赚很多钱。
It’s actually pretty shortsighted to refuse to share gas with a country you rely on for your own economy
拒绝与一个你经济赖以为生的国家分享天然气，实际上是相当短视的。
@Timestatic well It depends. One of the countries Who has been against this measure IS Spain, which is in a very unique situation. Because of past neglect, energy connections between the iberian peninsula and the mainland are virtually inexistent. Thus Spain had to invest in expensive LNG terminals. This means, funnily enough, that Spain IS not reliang on Russian gas, but also that It's virtually imposible to get spanish gas to the rest of Europe. Basically Spain has been living with a Russian gas shortage for all of its history in the EU, so It's already prepared for the situation. However, It can't really help. A cut just doesn't make any sense, because the gas IS essentially trapped in the peninsula, via decisions taken decades ago and still mantained today (France has been heavily against midcat gaseoduct even with German pressure to resume the project).
@Timestatic 这要看情况。西班牙是反对这一措施的国家之一，它的情况非常独特。由于过去的忽视，伊比利亚半岛和大陆之间的能源联系实际上是不存在的。因此，西班牙不得不投资昂贵的液化天然气终端。有趣的是，这意味着西班牙并不依赖俄罗斯的天然气，但同时也意味着西班牙几乎不可能将天然气输送到欧洲其他国家。基本上，西班牙在加入欧盟的历史上就一直面临着缺乏俄罗斯天然气的问题，所以它已经为这种情况做好了准备。然而，它不能真正帮上忙。削减天然气供应没有任何意义，因为根据几十年前的决定，天然气基本上被困在了这个半岛上，直到今天仍被保留(法国一直强烈反对midcat天然气开采项目，即使德国施压要求恢复该项目)。
因此，从根本上说，这是甜蜜的报复、政治压力(主要针对法国)，以及稳定欧洲市场的真正无能为力的混合体。
There is nothing Spain can really do, and It won't punish Its citizens and industry for nothing.
西班牙真的无能为力，它也不会无缘无故地惩罚它的公民和工业。
German politicians are saying Portugal and Spain should nonetheless cut gas usage as a symbolic gesture, which is pretty pathetic
德国政界人士表示，作为一种象征性的姿态，葡萄牙和西班牙应该削减天然气使用量，这种说法相当可悲。
@alejandro ojeda I'm glad someone pointed this out. It's no coincidence that Spain has so many pipelines to Algeria and so many LNG/LPG terminals. It's because of the history of energy distribution in the peninsula. Of course, we'll still pay more for the gas that we have to import, because prices are high globally, but I see no reason why Spain should have to shut down parts of its industry because northern Europe is having supply problems, if that's what some are suggesting
@alejandro ojeda 我很高兴有人指出这一点。西班牙有很多通往阿尔及利亚的管道，以及很多液化天然气/液化石油气终端，这并非巧合。这是因为这个半岛的能源分布历史。当然，我们仍将为进口天然气支付更高的价格，因为全球价格都很高，但如果有人要争辩这件事，我认为西班牙没有理由因为北欧的供应问题而关闭自己的部分行业。
I almost froze one winter because propane was obnoxious & I couldn't afford it. Those ceramic heaters work awesome. Can't someone make some type of solar powered heater? Prolly exists idk. Extra blankets & cuddle together.
有一年冬天我差点被冻住，因为丙烷太讨厌了，而且我买不起。那些陶瓷加热器好用极了。就不能做点太阳能加热器吗? 大概有吧。多盖几床毯，抱在一起。
gotta ask elon musk.
得问问埃隆·马斯克。
Move to Russia you will open windows for cooling at harsh winter. Because they use so much 'coal' or something. Seriously.
如果搬到俄罗斯，你会在严冬打开窗户降温。因为他们使用了太多的“煤”或其他东西。真的。
Solar isn't what you'd want to rely on in winter. Wind might work tho.
太阳能在冬天靠不住。不过风能可能有用。
you should also give datas about the amount of gas each nation have for this winter, Italy is at 85% thanks also to TAP, and aim to 90% by october, finland and Latvia also dont have capacity to store gas so thats why you see in the graph they consume way less
你也应该提供关于每个国家在这个冬天的天然气数量的数据，意大利的85%也多亏了TAP，目标是在10月达到90%，芬兰和拉脱维亚也没有储存天然气的能力，这就是为什么在你的图表他们消耗的更少。
Spain's gas consumption has gone up because the electricity distribution and production companies are private, so they don't produce for the needs of the population but for profits, so they want electricity to be sold at a higher price. Because of how the electricity price is set, they actually want to use as much gas as possible to make the price higher, meaning more profits for them. It has worked: Spain's one of the countries with the highest electricity prices in Europe (the one the consumers pay) and the electricity companies have doubled and tripled their prices.
西班牙的天然气消费量上升，是因为电力分配和生产公司是私营的，所以他们的生产不是为了满足人们的需求，而是为了利润，所以他们希望以更高的价格出售电力。由于电价的制定方式，他们实际上想要使用尽可能多的天然气，使价格更高，这意味着他们的利润更多。这种做法已经奏效了：西班牙是欧洲电价最高的国家之一(由消费者支付)，电力公司的电价翻了一番，甚至翻了三倍。
Yes, the privatization of the energy sector - throughout Europe - has led to disaster for citizens. Not that the blame is every put on them. The government explains "it's Putin's fault" and companies continue to enjoy record windfall profits. (Sweden.)
是的，整个欧洲能源部门的私有化给公民带来了灾难。并不是所有的责任都在他们身上。政府解释说“这是普京的错”，公司继续享受创纪录的暴利。(瑞典)。
Why does Spain have price or profit caps on energy? That's the only reason why companies would have to increase consumption to increase profits. But then that's the government's fault for implementing a dumb policy like that.
为什么西班牙对能源设置价格或利润上限? 这就是公司必须增加消费来增加利润的唯一原因。但那是政府的错，因为它执行了这样愚蠢的政策。
Wait, how can spanish electric companies force anyone to consume electricity? Power companies don't make money by high gas prices, they lose money from that. They make money from high electricity prices. Buying gas doesn't drive up the price of electricity directly, but only through increasing the costs to the power companies.
等等，西班牙电力公司怎么能强迫任何人用电? 电力公司不会靠高气价赚钱的，而是会因此赔钱。他们从高电价中赚钱。购买天然气并不会直接推高电价，只会增加电力公司的成本。
@Apsoy Pike you can't live in today's world without electricity, and if high gas prices don't benefit them explain how they get record profits every second month or so
@Apsoy Pike 没有电你就无法生活在今天的世界里，如果高气价对他们没有好处，那请解释一下他们是如何每隔两个月就能获得创纪录的利润的。
@Óscar Kronborg You can live with less electricity. The prices are up because supply is constrained. But Spanish companies shouldn't be able to force demand higher. Something else has to be going on.
@Óscar Kronborg 少用点电你也能活。价格上涨是因为供应受到限制。但西班牙企业应该没有能力迫使需求提高。肯定另有隐情。
Spain is so expensive and the salaries are so bad, no idea how they will deal with it.
西班牙生活成本太高，工资太低，不知道他们将如何应对。
Just surviving the winter isn't enough, if the industrial sector is sacrificied the economy will suffer in the long term
仅仅熬过这个冬天是不够的，如果工业部门被牺牲，经济将受到长期的影响。
That's the point, cult initiation by making people suffer. Also helps to grab power.
这就是重点，通过让人们受苦可以创造邪教。也有助于攫取权力。
A recession is the least of Europe's problems, they have to worry about slipping into a depression! It's heat or eat, sucks to be a european!
衰退是欧洲最微不足道的问题，他们不得不担心陷入萧条! 不是没火烤，就是没饭吃，身为欧洲人真糟糕!
Europe survived 2 world wars, it will survive this also.
欧洲活过了两次世界大战，这一次它也能活下来。