我们所知道的“西方”会像罗马帝国那样崩溃吗?（二）
Will ''the West'' as we know it collapse the way the Roman Empire collapsed?
译文简介
“颓废的罗马人”假说主要起源于爱德华·吉本斯(Edward Gibbons)，他明确地将其与基督教联系起来。根据吉本斯的说法，罗马人“接受了陌生人和外来者的罪恶”(主要是基督教的“罪恶”)，这导致他们缺乏为自己的帝国对抗汹涌而来的野蛮人的意愿。
正文翻译
Will 'the West' as we know it collapse the way the Roman Empire collapsed?
我们所知道的“西方”会像罗马帝国那样崩溃吗?
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Great comment. The “decadent Roman” hypothesis originates mainly with Edward Gibbons, who lixed it explicitly with Christianity. According to Gibbons, the Romans “adopted the vices of strangers and outsiders” (chief these “vices” Christianity), and that led to a lack of willingness to fight for their empire against the overwhelming waves of barbarians. It’s a pretty t heory, but it’s too bad that it’s not what happened. First of all, absolutely no evidence suggests that Romans in the late Western Empire were less willing to fight for their Empire then previously. The “barbarians” did indeed make up a significant portion of the Roman army, but they were not the majority. Also, the Romans had always heavily incorporated non-Roman auxiliaries into their armies. Despite having more “outsiders” serving as legionnaires in the late Empire, there’s no evidence that the army’s performance suffered. Second-and most important-Gibbons and the original post on this topic ignores the Roman Empire in the East (heavily Christian) which lasted nearly 1,000 years beyond the fall of the West. I guess the people in the East were less “debauched and lazy” then those in the West? Lol it doesn’t make sense at all. Clearly, it was socioeconomic factors-rather than attitudes-that led to the decline of the West while the East remained strong.
说得好。
“颓废的罗马人”假说主要起源于爱德华·吉本斯(Edward Gibbons)，他明确地将其与基督教联系起来。根据吉本斯的说法，罗马人“接受了陌生人和外来者的罪恶”(主要是基督教的“罪恶”)，这导致他们缺乏为自己的帝国对抗汹涌而来的野蛮人的意愿。
这是一个光鲜的理论，但糟糕的是事实并非如此。首先，绝对没有证据表明西罗马帝国晚期的罗马人比之前更不愿意为自己的帝国而战。"蛮族"确实在罗马军队中占了相当大的比例，但他们并不是大多数。此外，罗马人总是大量吸收非罗马支援军加入他们的军队。尽管在帝国后期有更多的“外人”作为军团成员，但没有证据表明军队的表现受到了影响。其次，也是最重要的一点，吉本斯和关于这个话题的原始评论忽略了东罗马帝国(主要是基督教)，它在西罗马灭亡后持续了近1000年。
我猜东罗马人没有西罗马那么“放荡和懒惰”，是吗？哈哈，这完全没有道理。很明显，是社会经济因素，而不是态度，导致了西罗马的衰落，而东罗马依然强大。
Respectfully, I disagree. This is largely based on moralising arguments, which I don't find convincing. People have been predicting doom since the beginning of human civilisation. Making huge, sweeping generalisations about hundreds of millions of people across multiple countries and continents… I just think it's not supported by any evidence. Rather than having some unique pathology of degeneration, “the West” (to the extent that such a thing even exists…) is simply the way it is because of technology and economics. It's not because people have “become soft” and forgotten virtue. Society may indeed collapse. But if it does, it will be caused by climate change and unregulated capitalism, not by some supposed decline in public morality.
我尊重楼主的观点，但我不同意。
这在很大程度上是基于道德上的论点，我觉得这些论点没有说服力。自从人类文明开始以来，人们就一直在预言末日。对来自多个国家和大洲的数亿人进行了巨大的、全面的概括……我完全觉得这些概括没有任何证据支持。
“西方”(在某种程度上，这样的概念依然存在)之所以是西方，完全是因为技术和经济。这并不是因为人们“变得软弱”，忘记了美德。社会可能真的会崩溃。但如果真的发生了，那将是由气候变化和不受监管的资本主义造成的，而不是由某种所谓的公共道德下降造成的。
The drivers of how technology and economy are used are those ‘soft’ things you seem to disdain: virtue, ethics, identity, etc… the narrative that holds a culture together. By themselves, technology and economy are but tools, neutral.
With a coherent narrative (if I may be forgiven for using that term to sum up all the ‘soft’ things) a culture can survive through much hardship.
An example I have in mind is how the narrative of Christian Hellenism ket the culture of the Greeks going for 400 years of Ottoman Islamic subjugation such that they were able to fight their way out in the early 19th century with language, religion and culture intact. 400 years.
Or of how after 2000 years of diaspora the narrative of Judaism kept a culture and people going to be able to reestablish a state, resurrect a language on the same real estate. 2000 years.
But for those two examples, there are ten times as many cultures that were swallowed up and lost to invading cultures.
Cultural narrative, if one believes in it, can be stronger than the technology and economy
推动技术和经济的是那些你似乎不屑一顾的“软”东西：美德、伦理、身份等，它们是将一种文化凝聚在一起的叙事。就其本身而言，技术和经济只是工具，是中立的。有了一套连贯的叙述，一种文化可以在许多困难中生存下来。
我能想到的一个例子是，基督教希腊文化的叙述是如何让希腊文化在奥斯曼伊斯兰帝国统治了400年之后，在19世纪早期，他们能够在语言、宗教和文化完好无损的情况下走出困境。这是400年。
或者在两千年的散居之后，犹太教的叙述如何得以保留，人们如何能够重建一个国家，在同一块土地上复活一种语言。这是2000年。
但在这两个例子之外，有十倍多的文化被入侵的文化所吞噬。
如果相信文化叙事，它可以比技术和经济更强大。
Western societies won´t collapse on climate change or unregulated capitalism. Both of these affect most the societies that are not in Western cultural sphere (Africa, Middle-East etc). West would be the least likely place to collapse in such circumstances as Western countries (maybe excluding Australia) has both the best-suited geographical location and the best-doing economies in the World.
If West collapses it collapses because Western values get challenged and rejected universally in a world where West simultaneously loses its political influence and anti-progress authoritarianism would take over. The collapse would not really be in relation to morality but it would have everything to do with values.
西方社会不会因为气候变化或不受监管的资本主义而崩溃。这两种因素影响着大多不属于西方文化领域的社会(非洲、中东等)。在这种情况下，西方国家是最不可能崩溃的地方，因为西方国家(可能不包括澳大利亚)拥有世界上最适合的地理位置和最好的经济体。
如果西方崩溃了，它会崩溃是因为西方价值观在一个西方同时失去其政治影响力和反进步的威权主义将接管的世界中受到挑战和普遍拒绝之下发生的。这种崩溃其实与道德无关，而是与价值观有关。
I lived overseas for most of my adult life, mostly Singapore and China. In the latter in particular it was very normal to read news articles about the coming collapse of the West. I wrote it all off as propaganda, perhaps with a tinge of jealousy. Then I came back to live in North America 4 years ago. I was shocked how much the culture had changed. We have indeed become weak and divided, and lost the principles that made us great. I now believe it’s a 50/50 proposition that the dystopian futures we see in most movies and TV shows these days will be the general reality of our lives within the next 25 years.
我成年后的大部分时间都生活在海外，主要是在新加坡和中国。尤其是在后者，阅读有关西方即将崩溃的新闻报道是非常正常的。我认为这是一种宣传，也许带着一丝嫉妒。但4年前我回到北美生活。我对文化的变化感到震惊。我们确实变得软弱和分裂，失去了使我们变得伟大的原则。
我现在相信，我们现在在大多数电影和电视节目中看到的反乌托邦未来，在未来25年内将成为我们生活的普遍现实，这是一个五五开的命题。
I unfortunately agree, and fear for the immediate future of Western civilization.
However, even in the darkest times there is always hope, because just as how good times then led to weak men today, tough times today will eventually give rise to strong men tomorrow, and it is this next generation of strong men that will eventually correct the mistakes that we are making today, save the West in doing so, and return hope to us all. And as long as there is hope, it’s not over yet.
很不幸，但我同意，我对西方文明未来有一种恐惧感。
然而，即使是在最黑暗的时候，也总有希望，因为就像今天的好时光造就了今天的弱者，今天的艰难时光最终会造就明天的强者，而正是下一代的强者最终会纠正我们今天所犯的错误。这样做可以拯救了西方世界，给我们所有人带来希望。只要还有希望，一切就不会结束。
I wish I could be as optimistic but that standpoint is ignorant. Does it mean we have to wait for society to collapse before it is rebuild. Why lose all the progress when you can preserve it?
我希望我也能如此乐观，但这种观点是无知的。这是否意味着我们必须等到社会崩溃后才能重建?既然可以存活下去，为什么要失去所有的进步呢?
The West is a construction of 2000 years. It’s underpinnings, moorings, are Judeo-Christian values that incorporated various forms of European paganism (the end product of this synthesis is Christianity) and Roman jurisprudence. The syncretic product out of these is the Values of Enlightenment, the essence of humanism distilled out of many trials and tribulations. West can exist as an idea and physical entity only as long as it is tethered to its moorings. Once detached from the moorings it will be ready for take over by movements and ideologies opposed to Western civilizational values (values of Enlightenment), and the immediate candidate that comes to mind is Islam.
西方是一座2000年的建筑。它的基础和支柱是犹太教和基督教的价值观，它融合了各种形式的欧洲异教(这种综合的最终产物是基督教)和罗马法律学。这些思想融合而成的产物是启蒙价值观，是在历尽磨难中提炼出来的人文精神的精华。西方可以作为一种理念和实体存在，只要它被坚持。
一旦脱离了束缚，它就会被反对西方文明价值观(启蒙价值观)的运动和意识形态所接管，直接出现在脑海中的候选人就是伊斯兰教。
here we go again, I knew someone is going to bring Islam into it. If the “west" is destined to collapse it is going to be for it's unbelievable hubris and ignorance of what's going on around the world. “Islam” or “China” are not waiting in the bushes to jump at you people, we have our own problems and shenanigans to deal with. you're giving yourselves too much credit it's unbelievable. you're the ones who have been sticking your noses in other people's businesses for the last 500 years.
又来了，我就知道有人会把伊斯兰教扯进来。如果“西方”注定要崩溃，那是因为它难以置信的傲慢和对世界各地正在发生的事情的无知。
“伊斯兰”也好“中国”也罢，不会躲在灌木丛里伺机攻击你们，我们有自己的问题要处理。你太高估自己了，太不可思议了。是你在过去的500年里一直在干涉别人的事情。
I agree with you overall but Islam was quite successful in getting into a lot of ‘people’s business’ for many centuries ~ the speed of their military expansion via the Arabs, and then the Turks was astounding.
No finger pointing please.
总的来说我同意你的观点，但是伊斯兰教在很多世纪里都非常成功地介入了很多‘民族的事务’，他们通过阿拉伯人和随后的土耳其人进行军事扩张的速度，令人震惊。
请不要互相指责。
everyone did it, but it's not Islam that's blaming Christians or westerners or the Chinese for it's problems all the time! what Islam has to do with the collapse of western civilization to be brought into the subject every single time?
每个人都这么做过，但伊斯兰教没有一直把问题归咎于基督徒、西方人或中国人!伊斯兰教与西方文明的崩溃有什么关系?
I agree with you 100%. The West is collapsing on its own.
No one is blaming Islam for the collapse of the West. Just saying that it might be one of the cultural forces that could sweep into the vacuum left by a collapsing and demographically shrinking West.
Personally I think the West will break up into a type of technological feudalism… :-(
Not a pretty picture.
我完全同意你的看法，西方正在自己崩溃。
没有人将西方的崩溃归咎于伊斯兰教。我只是想说，它可能是一种文化力量，可以横扫崩溃和人口萎缩的西方所留下的真空。
我个人认为西方会分裂成一种技术上的封建主义……
这不是一幅美好的画面。
Islam will not be the cause of the collapse of the West, Islam is not intellectually or materially equipped for it, but Islam is the primary candidate to be the beneficiary if that collapse ever happens.
伊斯兰教不会是西方崩溃的原因，伊斯兰教在知识上或物质上都没有为此做好准备，但如果西方崩溃发生，伊斯兰教是主要的受益者。
Islam doesn’t stand a chance in Europe? We thought the same thing about Nazism. That it would not gain control over the Europe of Enlightenment, individualism, and liberty. But history tells us otherwise, the darkness came (and was conquered, fortunately).
伊斯兰教在欧洲没有机会吗？
我们对纳粹主义也是这么想的，我们原以为它不会控制欧洲的启蒙运动，个人主义和自由。但历史告诉我们，黑暗降临(幸运的是，它被征服了)。
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first of all, are you seriously comparing nazism to Islam? secondly, who said anything about Islam standing or not standing a chance in Europe? you really think there's a master plan to control Europe? do you know we literally don't care about Europe? you're not the center of the universe mate, get over yourself. and if you're afraid of Islam or whatever, just ban it, make it illegal, problem solved. just for the love of God stop bitchining about it.
首先，你是在拿纳粹和伊斯兰教做比较，你认真的?其次，谁说过伊斯兰教在欧洲有机会或没有机会了?你真的认为有一个控制欧洲的蓝图吗?你知道我们真的不关心欧洲吗?
你不是宇宙的中心，伙计，别自以为是了。如果你害怕伊斯兰教或其他什么，就禁止它，使它非法，问题就解决了。看在上帝的份上别再发牢骚了。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Just to mention, it is not about a ‘master plan’. It is about the inherent logic and motivations of authoritarian political ideologies such as Nazism and Islam that strive to reach a critical mass. The situation in which Islam attains the critical mass, the tipping point, may never happen in Europe. There is no possibility of the disaster happening in Europe, unless the West completely gives up upon the Enlightenment and humane values that created the West as we know.
值得一提的是，这不是一个“蓝图”。它是关于专制政治意识形态的内在逻辑和动机，如纳粹主义和伊斯兰教，力求达到临界点。
伊斯兰教达到临界规模、达到临界点的情况，可能永远不会在欧洲发生。除非西方完全放弃创造了我们所知的、西方的启蒙运动和人文价值，否则这场灾难不可能发生在欧洲。
To my mind the western world has no common focus, no ideology, no philosophy or even common enemy to unite against. There is of coarse capitalism and free market forces but that largely breeds inequality and simply boils down to a shallow desire for shiny new things. There is also a vague concept of “freedom” but that in reality is heavily dependent on having the financial resources to enjoy it. There is a growing uneducated feral underclass on the rise in every western country which consumes it's resources and gives nothing in return. There is little sense of community, duty or devotion to a greater cause than oneself. The west has become lazy, obese and entitled, no longer moving forward and willfully ignoring the lessons of the past. We will ultimately defeat ourselves because we deserve to be beaten. Societies evolve in the same way as living organisms do where the strong survive and flourish but eventually there is an inevitable decline and ultimately an extinction event. This decline is evident in the contemporary west as evidenced by it's self loathing and self consuming actions.
We used to stand for something, now we sit for nothing and helplessly watch the walls collapse around us.
在我看来，西方世界没有共同的焦点，没有意识形态，没有哲学，甚至没有共同的敌人需要大家联合起来对抗。这里存在着粗糙的资本主义和自由市场力量，但这在很大程度上滋生了不平等，并简单地归结为对闪亮新事物的浅薄渴望。对于“自由”也有一个模糊的概念，但在现实中，它严重依赖于拥有享受它的财政资源。在每一个西方国家，都有越来越多的未受教育的野蛮下层阶级在不断增加，他们消耗自己的资源，却不付出任何回报。
他们很少有集体意识、责任感或献身于比自己更伟大的事业的意识。西方变得懒惰、肥胖、自以为是，不再前进，任性地忽视过去的教训。我们最终会打败自己，因为我们活该被打败。社会的进化方式与生物有机体的进化方式相同，强者生存并繁荣，但最终会不可避免地衰落，并最终发生灭绝事件。这种衰落在当代西方是显而易见的，自我厌恶和自我消费行为就是明证。
我们曾经有自己的立场，现在我们什么都不做，眼睁睁地看着周围的墙倒塌。
I think the decadence argument is an incredibly unfair characterization of the reasons for Roman decline. I can imagine it could be the reason given by the Christian prudes who came afterwards, which went on the lines of “Rome fell because the people were having too much sex and pleasure! Those horny horny buggers!”
This leaves unanswered the reality that the decline of the Roman Empire continued unabated in the subsequent ten centuries after Christianity became the imperial religion. No comments on that! If prudishness wasn’t the solution to the decline, maybe having too much sex wasn’t the reason for it either.
One has to look at the broad swathe of Eurasian history in this period of time - a few centuries - when, across practically the entire area, there was a significant upturn in political change. One definite factor which occurred at this point was the dispersal of the Central Asians in practically all directions. The Vandals and other “barbarian” peoples had been menacing Southern Europe for some time and it could have possibly been environmental factors (abrupt desertification, sudden loss of farmland) which finally drove them into desperation and a consequent fight for survival in the far richer Roman Empire to their south.
我认为颓废论是对罗马衰落原因的极不公平的描述。
我可以想象，这可能是后来那些一本正经的基督徒给出的理由，他们说:“罗马衰落是因为人们有太多的性和愉悦！那些色批!”
这没有回答一个事实：在基督教成为帝国宗教后的十个世纪里，罗马帝国的衰落丝毫未减。然而这群人对此无可奉告！如果循规蹈矩不能解决衰落的问题，那么性生活过多恐怕也不是原因。
我们必须回顾欧亚大陆在这段时间(几个世纪)的广阔历史，当时几乎整个地区都出现了政治变革的显著上涨。在这一点上发生的一个决定性因素是中亚人几乎向各个方向扩散。汪达尔人和其他“野蛮人”威胁南欧已经有一段时间了，这可能是环境因素(突然的沙漠化，突然失去农田)最终使他们陷入绝望，并随之跑去他们南方富裕得多的罗马帝国为生存而战。
The civilisational decline is another thing altogether, and, depending on where you stand with regards to clerical authority, it may have had something to do with the decline in the intellectual climate. Since the church claimed “to have the answer for everything”, they shunt out much progress and advancement which could have taken place had they been corralled within Syria.
为什么罗马防御不了？也许他们没有更新战术。四帝共治的安排也可能与混乱的指挥体系联系起来，以至于无法部署足够的帝国军队来对付来自丛林的、讨厌的恐怖分子。文明的衰落则完全是另一回事，这取决于你对宗教权威的看法，它可能与知识氛围的衰落有关。由于教会声称“对一切都有答案”，他们排除了许多进步的观点和思维。
“The East” is not so much overtaking you as much as copying your achievements. Their higher population numbers means that they will naturally be “larger” economy-wise. But as for ruling trends, the West continues to be the validation ground where things are assessed and qualified.
它道出了一些关于西方当前状态的、不必要的东西：你的衰落并不是因为你有太多的性生活或因为你太颓废(不管那意味着什么)。总的来说，今天的西方人口实际上比世界上任何其他人口群体都更认真、更勤劳、更有生产力和更自由。尽管存在种种缺陷，西方的自由仍令全世界羡慕。西方的知识氛围远远超出了世界其他地区加起来所能提供的一切。
与其说“东方”超越了你，不如说它复制了你的成就。他们更多的人口数量意味着他们自然会在经济方面“更大”。但就统治趋势而言，西方仍然是评估和判定事物的验证地。
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