我们所知道的“西方”会像罗马帝国那样崩溃吗?（一）
Will ''the West'' as we know it collapse the way the Roman Empire collapsed?
译文简介
西方文化的“残酷真相”是，“西方”不够爱自己，以至于无法继续存在太久。有一种颓废感，一种对舒适和生活中美好事物的热爱，几乎渗透到现代西方社会的每一个方面。
正文翻译
Will 'the West' as we know it collapse the way the Roman Empire collapsed?
我们所知道的“西方”会像罗马帝国那样崩溃吗?
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The ‘brutal truth’ of Western culture is that ‘the West’ does not love itself enough to continue to exist for much longer. There is a sense of decadence, a love of comfort and the finer things in life, that has seeped into almost every aspect of modern Western society.
Rome fell because Rome had become decadent as well. Its people weren’t hardy enough to handle the ‘barbarians at the gates’ their ancestors had successfully fought off for centuries. Their leaders and elites had become thoroughly corrupt, and thoroughly perverted. Wine, bread, games, plenty of distractions… followed by a decline in birth rates, a decline in fertility. And, ultimately, the collapse of it all.
There is a trend of analyzing one’s past and being incredibly critical of one’s own history, people, culture, nations… of toppling statues, of rewriting history, of embracing shame, encouraging deep introspection. Of cancelling historical figures, sometimes centuries after their demise and with little understanding of the era in which they lived. Only the West does this. Other nations, cultures, maintain a sense of admiration for their ‘glorious past’, whereas in much of the Western world, the past has been summarily stripped of all its glory.
西方文化的“残酷真相”是，“西方”不够爱自己，以至于无法继续存在太久。有一种颓废感，一种对舒适和生活中美好事物的热爱，几乎渗透到现代西方社会的每一个方面。
罗马衰落是因为罗马也变得颓废了。它的人民不够坚强，无法对付他们的祖先几个世纪以来成功击退的“门口的野蛮人”。他们的领导人和精英已经彻底腐败，彻底堕落。酒，面包，游戏，大量的消遣，随之而来的是出生率的下降，生育率的下降。最终，一切都崩溃了。
现在有一种趋势，就是分析自己的过去，对自己的历史、人民、文化、国家提出难以置信的批评……推翻雕像，重写历史，接受耻辱，鼓励深刻的反省。遗忘历史人物——有时是在他们死后几个世纪，对他们生活的时代知之甚少。只有西方国家会这么做。其他国家、文化对他们的“光辉的过去”保持着一种崇拜的感觉，而在西方世界的大部分地区，过去的光辉已经被剥夺了
The brutal truth about Western culture, is that it’s all about to collapse. Whatever culture the West has, it does not fight hard enough to defend or preserve. People have their Netflix, their fastfood, their holidays and they’re lulled into complacency and a sort of nihilism, best summed up as “meh”. Stronger cultures with stronger values, closer families and stronger leaders will ultimately eat up what’s left of the West.
剩下的是一种相当空虚、相当物质主义的文化，其中相当一部分知识分子更关心如何解释问题，而不是解决问题。更专注于分配责任而不是寻找解决办法。消费主义变得猖獗，最新的品牌比最新的科学发展更重要，真理被那些从未进过大学教室的人所忽视。但有了谷歌和WiFi连接，就足以形成他们固执地坚持的、难以置信的强硬意见……
关于西方文化的残酷事实是，它即将崩溃。不管西方有什么文化，它都没有足够的努力去捍卫或保存。人们有他们的Netflix，他们的快餐，他们的假期，他们陷入了自满和一种虚无主义，最好的总结是“漠不关心”。更强大的文化、更强大的价值观、更紧密的家庭和更强大的领导人最终将吞噬掉西方剩下的一切。
It's astonishing to me that you have spoken like a Saint. 125 years back one of the greatest Monks of India, Swami Vivekananda had warned Americans while attending THE PARLIAMENT OF RELIGIONS in US, and I quote:
Too much materialistic living without spirituality is dangerous. From 50 years from now I stand here and warn you that you will face terrible consequences if you don't change. I have come here to teach you and I don't have to learn anything from you.
What a clairvoyant warning!
Exactly 50 years second world War broke out and now they're facing tragedy after tragedy endlessly. Drugs, sex, gun culture, no value for life, many youngsters counselled in rehabilitation centres for mental derangement etc.
让我惊讶的是，你说话像个圣人。125年前，印度最伟大的僧侣之一，斯瓦米·维韦卡南达在参加美国宗教议会时曾警告过美国人：过于物质而没有灵性的生活是危险的，我站在这里警告你们，如果你们不改变，你们将面临可怕的后果。我是来教你们的，我不需要从你们身上学到任何东西。
多么有洞察力的警告!
二战爆发整整50年了，现在他们面临着一场又一场无尽的悲剧。毒品、性、枪支文化、生命没有价值，许多青少年在精神错乱康复中心接受咨询等。
The good part is that the barbarians at the gates also loved Rome and tried to preserve whatever parts of Roman life and culture that they liked and could preserve,like Christianity,Roman law,the baths,Roman roads etc. In the same manner,the rising Eastern powers like China,India, Bangladesh, Vietnam,etc love Western values of capitalism, secularism, seperation of Church and State,human rights, democracy etc. Not all countries have all these things but most have adopted atleast some Western values. The youth in these countries still look upto the West. We'll preserve Western values when the West forgets them.
好的方面是，门口的野蛮人也热爱罗马，他们试图保存罗马生活和文化的任何他们喜欢和能够保存的部分，比如基督教、罗马法律、浴室、罗马道路等。
同样，中国、印度、孟加拉国、越南等崛起的东方大国也喜欢西方的资本主义、世俗主义、政教分离、人权、民主等价值观。
不是所有的国家都有这些东西，但大多数国家至少接受了一些西方价值观。这些国家的年轻人仍然仰望西方。我们将保护西方价值观，即使西方忘记了它们。
I like your optimism but I am not sure I share it. A lot of major nations like ‘some’ Western values but above all the one thing they adopted seems to have been capitalism and consumerism, only it is often mixed with increasing levels of authoritarianism, something even the West itself is in no way immune to.
我喜欢你的乐观，但我不确定我是否也有同感。许多主要国家喜欢“一些”西方价值观，但最重要的是，他们采用的一种东西似乎是资本主义和消费主义，它经常与越来越多的威权主义混合在一起，就连西方自己也无法幸免。
India has some authoritarianism because the opposition can't be trusted to run a kid's birthday party so Modi has a free reign. Bangladesh has everything else,it just has a flawed democracy. The 'dictator’ is keeping radical Islamists from coming into power and most Bangladeshis approve of her.
I can't speak for Vietnam as I don't know much about it.
China is a lost cause. Its government is now dictating how much time kids can play video games and going after big companies and celebrities now.
印度有一些威权主义，因为反对派不能被信任来管理孩子的生日派对，所以莫迪可以自由统治。孟加拉国什么都有，但民主制度有缺陷。这位“独裁者”正在阻止激进的伊斯兰主义者掌权，大多数孟加拉国人都支持她。
我不能为越南说话，因为我对它了解不多。
中国……，它现在决定了孩子们能玩多长时间的电子游戏，并开始打压大公司和名人。
“capitalism, secularism, seperation of Church and State,human rights, democracy”
These are not “western values”. They’ve been around at many places throughout the world at various points in time, including China, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, etc.. (in fact many of these places before western Europe as a whole)
“资本主义、世俗主义、政教分离、人权、民主”
这些不是“西方价值观”。它们在不同的时间出现在世界各地，包括中国、印度、孟加拉国、越南等(事实上，这些地方在整个西欧之前就已经存在了)
Western “values” are European cultures, languages, scxts, accents, clothing, rituals, including religions of traditional paganism or Christianity. Aspects like capitalism, secularism, human rights, democracy, etc, have been practiced across other civilizations as well, in whole or in part. Indians will preserve their own cultures, civilizations, languages, etc, all united under Hindu Dharma. Perhaps English is the only Western “culture” that “might” be preserved, but that’s about it. Europeans must wake up and save themselves on their own continent of Europe, which is their rightful homeland.
西方的“价值观”是欧洲的文化、语言、文字、口音、服装、仪式，包括传统的异教或基督教。像资本主义、世俗主义、人权、民主等方面，也在其他文明中全部或部分地实践过。
印度人会保存自己的文化、文明、语言等，所有这些都在印度教下统一起来。也许英语是唯一“可能”被保存下来的西方“文化”，但也仅此而已。欧洲人必须清醒过来，在他们自己的欧洲大陆上拯救自己，这是他们合法的家园。
The barbarians at the gates did change Roman culture though.
门口的蛮族确实改变了罗马文化。
Problem with this was that by the reign of Caracalla in AD 212, everyone living inside the empire became a Roman. Even those that lived by different morals, ethics, and even some groups like the germanic tribes became citizens of Rome, changed the dynamics of what it meant to be Roman. Germanic tribes were never treated with respect, even inside the empire, long story short, they invaded and sacked Rome.
Distrust of the germans may also have something to do with the disaster in the Teutoburg forest back in AD 9, when Germanic peoples ambushed Roman legions and their auxiliaries, basically annihilating them.
How I see this in comparison to Europe today is that, everyone is equal by law, even those that have different morals, ethics and value system opposite of what we have; a democratic liberal free society.
问题是到公元212年卡拉卡拉(Caracalla)统治时期，所有居住在帝国内的人都变成了罗马人。即使是那些生活在不同的道德，伦理，甚至一些群体，如日耳曼部落也成为了罗马公民，这改变了对罗马的定义。日耳曼部落从未受到尊重，即使在帝国内部。最终，他们入侵并洗劫了罗马。
对日耳曼人的不信任可能也与公元9年发生在条顿堡森林的灾难有关，当时日耳曼人伏击了罗马军团及其支援部队，基本上将他们歼灭。与今天的欧洲相比，我认为每个人在法律上都是平等的，即使是那些有着不同的道德、伦理和价值体系的人;民主、自由和解放的社会。
Indeed, all cultures are not equal and multicultural societies inevitably become multi-confrontational societies.
事实上，并非所有的文化都是平等的，多文化社会不可避免地成为多对抗的社会。
“all cultures are not equal”
These were my exact words during a university seminar. I believe I talked about Ancient Greece vs some Siberian tribes. The feeling of discomfort was definitely there. The professor decided to show me I was wrong and started to talk about an old peasant woman who could sing lovely songs and who was a good person.
Great, let me just throw Plato, Aristotle, the Stoics etc out of the window. Instead I will smile and sing a little song. Because all cultures are equal! Or so our schools claim.
“所有文化并不平等”
这是我在大学研讨会上的原话。我记得我讲过古希腊和西伯利亚部落。不舒服的感觉确实存在。教授想证明我错了，于是开始谈论一位能唱可爱歌曲的农妇，说她是一个好人。
很好，让我把柏拉图、亚里士多德、斯多葛学派等都扔出窗外。相反，我会微笑着唱一首小曲。因为所有的文化都是平等的！至少学校是这么说的。
It’s fine if each culture is contained to the specific area in which it evolved. It does become a problem if you throw people of different cultures together and just tell them to get along with each other (maybe with some extremely zealous anti-discrimination laws in favour of the minority as well).
What happens is that these cultures clash in various different ways and compete with each other until one is able to subdue the other (usually with violence) or everyone is compelled to follow the overriding culture. Otherwise, you will get increasingly violent agitation as people demand specific representation on the basis of their race/ethnicity/culture.
如果每种文化都局限于其发展的特定区域，那就好了。如果你把不同文化的人聚在一起，只是告诉他们要和睦相处(也许还有一些极端热心的、支持反歧视法的少数人)，这确实会成为一个问题。
这些文化会以各种不同的方式发生冲突，相互竞争，直到其中一种能够制服另一种(通常是用暴力)，或者每个人都被迫遵循压倒一切的文化。否则，随着人们基于他们的种族/民族/文化要求特定的代表，你将会遭遇越来越多的暴力煽动。
I don't think the decline of the West has much to do with nihilism or a laziness induced by a glut of material and material comforts.
It's got far more to do with stupidity and an utter abandonment of critical thinking and science and obxtive and consensus reality.
Thomas Jefferson…and several of the American founding fathers, in fact…often said and wrote during their lifetimes that, without a sufficiently educated electorate, democracy simply could not work.
And so, my friends… here the fuck we finally are.
It's stupid that'll do and is doing us in.
我不认为西方的衰落与虚无主义或物质享受过剩导致的懒惰有多大关系。而是与愚蠢、完全放弃批判性思维、科学、客观和共识有关。
事实上，托马斯·杰斐逊(Thomas Jefferson)和几位美国开国元勋在他们的一生中经常说，如果选民没有受过足够教育，民主根本无法发挥作用。
所以，我的朋友们，我们最终还是面临着这样的、该死的局面。
这太蠢了，会害死我们的。
Unfortunately the quality of university “research” has drastically declined over the years and Marxist propaganda originating from these campuses is one of the biggest reasons for the self-hating, exceptionalist attitude about the past of the West.
不幸的是，这些年来，大学“研究”的质量急剧下降，这源自这些校园的马克思主义宣传，它是自我憎恨、对西方历史持例外主义态度的最大原因之一。
I’m not sure if it is fair to blame it all on “Marxism”. Plenty of overly liberal ‘woke’ people have nothing to do with Marxism or even socialism and are simply historical revisionists. They’re certainly not all die-hard commies, although there is quite a few of them.
我不确定这一切都归咎于“马克思主义”是否公平。许多过度自由的“觉醒”的人与马克思主义甚至社会主义无关，他们只是历史修正主义者。
他们当然不都是共产主义死忠，尽管他们中有不少人是。
What they share with Marxism is the identification of oppressors and oppressed, only it is worse because it is race based rather than class based, and that is entirely irrespective of who the individual is or how they fit in any power structure.
Marx at least assigned it to class rather than innate characteristics.
This is frankly worse as it akin to tribalism in nature. That doesn’t bode well for a multiracial society.
他们与马克思主义的共同之处是对压迫者和被压迫者的划分，只是它更糟糕，因为它是基于种族而不是基于阶级，这完全与个人是谁或他们如何适应任何权力结构无关。
马克思至少把它划分为阶级而不是内在特征。
坦率地说，这更糟糕，因为它在本质上类似于部落主义。这对一个多种族社会来说可不是什么好兆头。
The perspective you are talking about is conflict theory, not Marxism.
你所说的观点是冲突理论，不是马克思主义。
Karl Marx is the father of Conflict Theory,
Marxism is rooted in it.
卡尔·马克思是冲突理论之父，马克思主义植根于此。
It doesn't mean it's the same thing. Wokeism does not equal Marxism. They diverge over significant points. Marxism is a conflict theory but not the only one.
这并不意味着它们是同一件事。工人主义不等于马克思主义。他们在重要的点上产生分歧。
马克思主义是一种冲突理论，但冲突理论不是它的唯一。
Nothing ever entirely disappears. Rome collapsed but on it's renmants a more vital culture sprang up as an amalgamation of the barbarian and the Roman culture and indeed now we consider the Western culture as having a certain continuity all the way from Greece and Rome - despite the many changes along the way.
没有什么会完全消失。罗马灭亡了，但在它的复兴之时，一种更有活力的文化涌现了出来，这是蛮族和罗马文化的融合。
现在我们认为西方文化从希腊和罗马一直延续至今，尽管过程中发生了很多变化。
I am sorry, but the “moral decadence” hypothesis of Rome’s decline is simply not what happened. By the time of the collapse of the Western Empire, it had become much smaller in terms of population and more impoverished then when it was at its peak almost 350+ years earlier. The city of Rome, once the crown jewel in the Empire, had shrank by hundreds of thousands of residents and become a bit of a backwater; the regional capital had been moved to modern-day Milan. Disease had ravaged the population and most of the land and resources had become concentrated in the hands of influential aristocrats, who in many ways were the precursors to the feudal lords of the Medi Period. The Roman military remained strong almost to the end, but there was simply no functioning state left to support it. The poverty of many Western Roman citizens made them loath to share limited land and resources with the “Barbarians”, a group they were already deeply prejudiced against. This led to rejection of the Germanic peoples. Indeed, this is what happens in history over and over again: breakdown of economic opportunities for the population leads people groups to lash out at each other in an effort to hold on to the limited available resources.
我很抱歉，但罗马衰落的“道德堕落”假说根本不是事实。
到西罗马帝国灭亡的时候，它的人口比350多年前的巅峰时期要少得多，也更加贫困。罗马城，曾经是帝国王冠上的一颗明珠，已经缩减了数十万居民，变成了一个闭塞的地方，该地区的首都已经搬到了今天的米兰。疾病肆虐，人口大部分土地和资源集中在有影响力的贵族手中，他们在很多方面都是中世纪封建领主的前身。罗马军队几乎一直强大到最后，但已经没有一个正常运转的政府来支持它了。
许多西罗马公民的贫穷使他们不愿与“野蛮人”分享有限的土地和资源，而他们对这个群体已经有了很深的偏见。这导致了日耳曼民族的排斥。事实上，这是历史上一再发生的事情：人口经济机会的崩溃导致各群体相互攻击，以努力攫取有限的可用资源。
The global “West” rose because opportunities were afforded to more and more sectors of the population. There was still horrific exploitation, but gradually more and more people (men and women, racial minorities, etc.) were able to participate in the economy and gain material wealth. If we turn back on this process and create a society where only the rich can participate, then history shows the consequences are clear.
这与西方的困境有什么关系？如果我们崩溃了(可以说，目前存在着严重的问题)，那将是由于经济不平等，以及除了富人之外的所有人都被剥夺了机会。随着收入不平等的加剧，就像过去40多年来一样，社会建立起了一种只对上层阶级有效的方式。因此，其他人都失去了希望。军队仍然强大，但社会方方面面却在崩溃。与西罗马帝国后期的情况类似，政策由有影响力的贵族控制，而牺牲了广大民众的最佳利益。
试图解决问题的改革者要么被压制，要么被迫离开政府，必要时还会使用暴力(就像发生在马杰里安等西罗马皇帝身上的事件一样，他本可以扭转局势)。
当权的领导人成为有钱贵族的棋子，而有钱贵族才是真正的“王座背后的权力”。这也是罗马的情况，在末世，傀儡皇帝一旦遇到里里默或他的门徒冈多巴德这样的贵族就会兴衰起伏。
全球“西方”的崛起是因为为越来越多的人口提供了机会。剥削仍然是可怕的，但越来越多的人(男人和女人，少数民族等)能够参与经济和获得物质财富。如果我们逆转这一进程，创造一个只有富人才能参与的社会，那么历史表明，后果是显而易见的。
You see, you’re doing things wrong. When you’re supposed to explain the fate of the Western Roman Empire, you aren’t supposed to look at what actually happened according to primary or secondary sources and attempt to derive conclusions from them. What you are supposed to do is to write a tale of the Romans becoming decadent and somehow gorging themselves on sweets until they’re too fat to fight. Or of spending too much time in debaucherous orgies to do anything else. Or getting drunk beyond all reason. Or suddenly being struck with an unsubstantiated lead poisoning epidemic due to lead piping they already used long before. Or somehow losing all will to fight because they are now too squamish. Never, ever, look at it’s actual socioeconomic evolution. It’s much less interesting than a tale of success being followed by decadence leading to decline. Specially not if you can use it to project your own opinions to them without much backing up.
你看，你做错了。当你要解释西罗马帝国的命运时，你不应该根据第一手或第二手资料，看看实际发生了什么，并试图从中得出结论。
你应该做的是写一个罗马人变得颓废的故事，然后不知怎么地狂吃甜食，直到他们胖得无法战斗。或者花太多的时间在放荡的狂欢上而不做其他事情。或者莫名其妙地喝醉。或者因为他们很久以前就用过的铅管道而突然受到未经证实的铅中毒流行病的袭击。或者不知何故失去了战斗的意志，因为他们现在太娇弱了。
永远不要去看它实际的社会经济演变。这远没有成功之后的颓废导致衰落的故事有趣。
特别是，如果你可以用它来向他们表达你自己的观点而不需要很多支持的话（那就更有趣了）。