Americans are starting to pull back on travel and restaurants
By Abha Bhattarai, The Washington Post
Published: June 18, 2022

美国消费者开始减少旅行和餐馆支出
发表于《华盛顿邮报》
作者：艾卜哈·巴塔拉依
发表时间：2022 年 6 月 18 日

More Americans are beginning to hold off on booking flights, getting haircuts, building backyard pools and replacing old leaky roofs - in some of the new signs that the consumer engine of U.S. economic growth could be losing steam.Q
Over the past several weeks, households had already cut back on big-ticket purchase because of soaring prices, but in a worrisome twist, data suggests consumers are also beginning to tap the brakes on dining out, vacation plans and even routine services like manicures, hair cuts and home-cleaning appointments. Business owners around the country say rising prices, dwindling savings and concerns of a souring economy are taking a toll on household spending decisions.
At Olentangy Maids in Columbus, Ohio, more customers are putting off or canceling home-cleaning appointments. Some regulars are trying to negotiate lower prices, while others have stopped tipping altogether, entrepreneur Keith Troyer said.

越来越多的美国人开始推迟预订航班、理发、建造后院游泳池和更换漏水的旧屋顶等等——这些新迹象表明，美国经济增长的消费引擎可能正在失去动力。
在过去的几周里，由于价格飙升，家庭已经减少了大件商品的购买，但令人担忧的是，数据显示消费者也开始在外出就餐、理发和家庭保洁预约、外出度假计划甚至美容美甲等日常服务上踩刹车。全国各地的企业主表示，物价上涨、储蓄减少以及对经济恶化的担忧正在影响家庭的消费支出决策。
俄亥俄州哥伦布市的奥兰滕吉家居服务公司表示，越来越多的顾客推迟或取消了家庭清洁预约。公司老板凯斯·特耶说，一些常客正试图通过谈判降低服务价格，而有些人则干脆完全拒绝付小费。

“It hasn’t been a massive drop off, but enough that it’s been noticeable,” Troyer said. “Quite a few clients have called saying, ‘Hey, my wife got laid off. We need to cancel,’ or ‘Can I switch from biweekly to monthly?’ Prior to this month, that’s something that hardly happened.”
Consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, has held strong through April even with inflation at historic highs. But there are growing signs that the spending streak could be ending.
Retail sales slowed last month for the first time this year, driven by a 4% drop in car sales. U.S. flight bookings dipped 2.3% in May from a month earlier, according to data from Adobe Analytics. And both high- and low-income Americans have begun pulling back, particularly on services, in the past four to six weeks, according to an analysis of credit card data by Barclays. The slowdown in spending is now concentrated in services, not goods, the bank found in a new analysis of credit card data.

“这还没有大幅度下降，但足以引起人们的注意，”特耶先生说。“不少客户打来电话说，‘嘿，我的妻子失业了。我们需要取消（服务预约），”或者“我可以从两周一次切换到每月一次吗？” 在这个月之前，这是几乎没有发生过的事情。
占美国经济三分之二以上的消费者支出在 4 月份一直保持强劲，即使通胀处于历史高位。但越来越多的迹象表明，这种上升趋势可能即将结束。
受汽车销量下降 4% 的推动，上个月商品零售销售额今年首次出现放缓。根据 Adobe 分析系统提供的数据，5 月份全美国航班的预订量较上月下降了2.3%。根据巴克莱银行对信用卡数据的分析，在过去的四到六周里，无论是高收入还是低收入的美国消费者都开始收缩开支，尤其是在服务方面。该银行在对信用卡数据的新分析中发现，支出放缓目前集中在服务而非商品上。

“All through 2022, the narrative has been that as COVID faded, households would ramp up spending on services,” Barclays analysts wrote in a note this week. “And indeed, that narrative has been true for much of this year. But . . . services spending seems to be slowing considerably.”
Spending on services like travel and restaurants, which was growing more than 30% from 2021 rates this year, has now slowed to half that pace, according to the Barclays analysis.
Customers at Salon Simis in Fairfax, Va., have begun cutting back in new ways. Clients who used to come in every four weeks are now going 12 weeks in between appointments, owner Ahmet Sim said. Others are bargaining for lower prices or opting for partial treatments instead of highlights all over. Overall sales are down 20% from a year ago. Average tips have also fallen, from about 20% to 10%.

巴克莱银行的分析师本周在一份报告中写道：“整个 2022 年，人们一直认为随着 COVID疫情的消退，家庭将增加服务支出。”“事实上，这种说法在今年的大部分时间里都是真实的。但是 . . . 服务性支出现在似乎正在出现大幅度的减缓。”
根据巴克莱银行的分析，旅游和餐饮等服务性支出 2021 年的增长率超过了30%，今年以来到目前已经放缓至该速度的一半。
弗吉尼亚州费尔法克斯的Simis美容沙龙的顾客们已经开始以新的方式削减开支。店主阿赫麦特·西姆说，过去每 4 周来一次的客户现在两次预约之间的间隔达到了 12 周。其他人则在讨价还价或选择局部护理而不是整个套餐。整体销售额比前一年下降了20%。小费的平均额也有所下降，从大约 20% 下降到 10%。

“Just in the last month, I’ve started noticing that clients are bargaining like crazy,” Sim said. “They’ll say, ‘My bill is usually $500 for color and highlights. What can you do to reduce it?’ "
He tries to work with them, he said, by using lower-priced color lines or passing blow drying services to less-experienced stylists. But he’s feeling the pinch of inflation, too: Boxes of disposable gloves have gone from $7 to nearly $25 in two years. Hair dyes that used to cost $25 are now closer to $40. Sim raised prices during the pandemic, once, but he’s worried another markup would alienate more customers.
“People are cutting back left and right,” he said. “They’re saying, ‘I’m sorry. I can’t afford this anymore.’ "

“就在上个月，我开始注意到客户们正在疯狂讨价还价，”西姆说。“她们会说，‘我的头发换色和挑染的账单通常能到 500 美元。你能做点什么来降低它吗？"
他说，他试图与客户们合作，通过使用价格较低的染色剂或是将吹风服务交给刚入门不久的造型师处理。但他也感受到了通货膨胀的压力：一盒一次性手套在两年内从 7 美元涨到了近 25 美元。过去25美元的染发剂现在接近 40 美元。西姆在疫情大流行期间曾提高过一次价格，但他担心再次加价会疏远更多客户。
“人们正在左支右绌，”他说。“她们说，‘对不起。我再也负担不起了。"

These early signs of slowdown across a broad range of products and industries, including travel and restaurants, challenge the notion that Americans have simply shifted their spending from goods to services. The hope until now had been that after two years of stocking up on products like cars, furniture and appliances, Americans would splurge more on vacations, dining out, manicures and other services they’d mostly put off for much of the pandemic.
Meanwhile, one benchmark showed growth in the U.S. services industry slowed in May to its lowest level since February 2021, according to a closely watched index from the Institute for Supply Management.
“The goods side [of spending] is definitely weakening, but if you look closely, services are, too,” said Kevin Gordon, senior investment research manager at Charles Schwab. “Restaurant sales have eased, travel-related spending is weakening. The weight on the consumer is becoming too much - whether because of inflation or other factors - and that’s across income groups.”

包括旅游和餐饮在内的众多产品和行业都出现了疲软的早期迹象，挑战了美国人只会将支出从商品转向服务的观念。迄今为止的希望是，在大肆购买汽车、家具和电器等商品两年后，美国消费者会在度假、外出就餐、美容和其他服务性支出上挥霍更多，而他们在大流行的大部分时间里都推迟了这些服务。
与此同时，根据供应管理协会密切关注的一项基准指数，5 月份美国服务业的增长已经放缓至 2021年2月以来的最低水平。
嘉信理财高级投资研究经理凯文·戈登表示：“商品的（支出）方面肯定在减弱，但如果仔细观察，服务性支出其实也在减弱。”“餐厅销售有所下降，与旅行相关的支出正在减弱。无论是由于通货膨胀还是其他因素，对消费者的影响越来越大，而且这涉及到各个收入群体。”

Overall, flight searches on booking site Kayak are down an average 13% so far this month, compared with the same period in pre-pandemic 2019. Restaurant dining data from the reservation platform Open Table, meanwhile, shows that the number of people eating at restaurants fell 11% in the week ending June 16, compared with the same week in 2019.
While low-income families have been hardest-hit by inflation, higher-income households are also beginning to cut back, especially as they watch investments - from stock portfolios to homes - lose value, Gordon said. Household wealth fell for the first time in two years in the most recent quarter, in large part because of a $3 trillion plunge in the stock values, Federal Reserve data shows.
The markets continued their volatile descent this week, with three major stock indexes deepening losses for the year and the S&P 500 index closing out its worst week since March 2020.

总体而言，本月到目前为止，机票预订网站Kayak上的航班搜索量与 2019 年大流行前同期相比平均下降了 13%。与此同时，餐饮预订平台Open Table的餐厅用餐数据显示，在与 2019 年同一周相比，截至6月16日的一周内，餐厅预约数量下降了 11%。
戈登指出，虽然低收入家庭受到通货膨胀的打击最为严重，但高收入家庭也开始削减开支，尤其是在他们眼睁睁地看着投资——从股票投资组合到房屋——开始贬值时。美联储数据显示，最近一个季度家庭财富两年来首次下降，很大程度上是因为股票市值暴跌了3万亿美元。
本周市场继续震荡下跌，三大股指今年跌幅进一步扩大，标准普尔 500 指数收盘时是自从2020年3月以来最糟糕的一周。

At Posh Luxury Imports, a Los Angeles car dealership that also rents high-end vehicles, owner Omar McGee said both consumer demand and their credit scores are markedly lower than six weeks ago.
“I see more credit problems,” McGee said. “More people have maxed-out cards or have fallen behind on payments. At the end of the day, that means people have to be much more cautious about their spending.”
Credit card debt, which nosedived during the pandemic as Americans used government stimulus to pay down balances, has rebounded to all-time highs. As of June 1, Americans had $868 billion in consumer debt, up nearly 16% from last year, according to Fed data.

在经营高端汽车出租的洛杉矶汽车经销商“ 进口豪华奢侈品”的老板奥马尔·麦吉表示，消费者的需求和他们的信用评分都明显低于六周前。
“我看到更多的信用问题，”麦基说。“越来越多的人刷卡或拖欠付款。归根结底，这意味着人们必须对自己的支出更加谨慎。”
由于美国人利用政府刺激措施偿还余额，信用卡债务在大流行期间急剧下降，现已反弹至历史高位。根据美联储的数据，截至6月1日，美国人的消费性债务达8680亿美元，比去年增长近 16%。
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And while the wealthiest continue to rent Lamborghinis and Bentleys, McGee said there has been a notable decline in the number of tourists opting for high-end rentals.
“I can tell that traveling is down, the tourism is down,” he said. “A lot of higher-middle-class customers used to come into town and splurge, but you can see that dropping pretty dramatically.”
That consumer hesitation follows months of inflation at 40 year highs. Prices have risen 8.6% in the past year, driving up costs for a range of essentials, including gas, which reached a record of $5 per gallon.

虽然最富有的客户仍在继续租用兰博基尼和宾利，但麦基表示，选择租赁高端豪车的游客数量出现了明显下降。
他说：“我可以说旅行人数正在下降，旅游业正在下降。” “过去有很多中上阶层的顾客来城里挥霍，但你可以看到这种情况急剧下降。”
消费者的犹豫是在通货膨胀数月来达到了近40年的高位之后出现的。过去一年价格上涨了 8.6%，推高了包括汽油在内的一系列必需品的成本，达到了每加仑5美元的创纪录水平。

The biggest bright spot in the economy remains the strong jobs market, with the unemployment rate at a pandemic low of 3.6%. Demand for workers neared record highs in April, with about twice as many openings than job seekers. Weekly claims for unemployment insurance have recently begun to creep up, but they are far lower than they had been during most of the pandemic.
With workers still able to find jobs, the Fed made a sharper move this week to hike interest rates by three-fourths of a percentage point in hopes of cooling the economy enough to curb inflation without tipping it into recession. Despite the central bank’s assurances that it can pull off a “soft landing,” businesses and households are increasingly worried about the state of the economy as well as their personal finances. Indeed, U.S. consumer sentiment plummeted this month to its lowest level on record, according to an index by the University of Michigan.
“The consumer is coming under stress,” said Douglas Duncan, chief economist at mortgage giant Fannie Mae, who expects a recession next year. “We see that in decreasing retail sales and in rising credit card usage. We don’t expect things to fall apart immediately, though. It’ll be a slower decline.”

经济中最大的亮点仍然是强劲的就业市场，失业率处于大流行的低点-3.6%。4 月份对人工的需求接近历史新高，职位空缺是求职者的两倍。最近每周申请失业保险的人数开始攀升，但仍远低于大流行期间的水平。
由于工人们仍然能够找到工作，美联储本周采取了更为激进的举措，将利率提高了0.75个百分点，以期使经济冷却到足以抑制通胀而不使其陷入衰退的程度。尽管央行保证可以实现“软着陆”，但企业和家庭越来越担心经济状况及其个人财务状况。事实上，根据密歇根大学的一项指数，美国消费者信心本月跌至有记录以来的最低水平。
“消费者正面临压力，”抵押贷款巨头房利美的首席经济学家道格拉斯·邓肯说，他预计明年会出现衰退。“我们看到零售额下降和信用卡使用量的增加。不过，我们并不指望事情会立即崩溃。这将是一个较为缓慢的下降过程。”
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Indeed, small businesses nationwide are reporting small signs of customers pulling back. Morehead Pools, which specializes in luxury backyard pools in Louisiana, is booked through next summer, according to chief executive Michael Moore. But in a sign that higher-income consumers may be thinking twice before splurging, new queries are down 30% so far this year.
“Once you get past $4 [per gallon of gas], everybody’s feeling it at the pump and they’re not making enough on the front end to overcome that,” Moore said in an analyst call hosted by Jefferies this week. “The cost of energy and inflation and then the cost of money . . . that’s really going to pull back demand in our sector.”
Noffke Roofing in Mequon, Wis., has seen insatiable demand during the pandemic. But lately, economic jitters are leading many customers to patch up their roofs instead of replacing them. Many are also trading down to cheaper materials, like shingles made of asphalt instead of cedar.
“We’re definitely starting to see a pause,” president Ben Noffke said. “Customers are saying, ‘I know it’s time to get a new roof, but can we get a little more time out of this one?’ They’re thinking about their budgets a lot more.”

事实上，全国范围内的小企业都报告了客户需求缩减的蛛丝马迹。据路易斯安那州专门从事豪华后院游泳池业务的莫尔黑德泳池公司的首席执行官迈克尔·摩尔说，该公司的预约订单持续到了明年夏天，但一个迹象表明，高收入消费者在挥霍之前可能会三思而后行，今年到目前为止，新的消费者咨询量下降了 30%。
“一旦 （每加仑汽油）超过 4 美元，每个人都会在加油时感受到它，而他们在前端的收入不足以克服这一点，”摩尔在本周由杰富瑞投资银行主持的分析师电话会议中表示。“能源成本和通货膨胀，然后是资金成本......这肯定将会拉低我们行业的需求。”
威斯康星州梅库恩市的诺夫克屋面维修公司在大流行期间出现了无法满足的订单需求。但最近，经济紧张导致许多客户选择对屋顶进行修补而不是更换整个屋顶。许多人还转而使用更便宜的材料，例如用沥青代替雪松制成的带状屋面瓦。
“我们肯定已经开始看到（消费）暂停了，”该公司的总裁本·诺夫克说。“客户说，‘我知道是时候换一个新屋顶了，但我们还能从现在这个屋顶上多花点时间吗？’ 他们现在更多考虑的是他们的预算。”