网友讨论：即将到来的粮食浩劫？
The Coming Food Catastrophe
译文简介
这个油管视频发布于5月21日日，视频内容较长，译文正文部分仅为摘要。
正文翻译
Wheat futures prices are up 60% so far this year and after a heat wave damaged crops in India, the country announced last week an immediate ban on wheat exports. The Indian government said that a spike in prices is threatening the security of a vital commodity both for india and for other vulnerable countries. India is the world's second-biggest wheat producer after China. Thanks in part to a bumper harvest last year they had been able to fill the gap in markets left by decreased output from Ukraine, even as bad weather reduced the crops of the other big grain exporters.
今年迄今为止，小麦期货价格已经上涨了60%（5月份数据），在一场热浪袭击了印度的农作物产区后，该国上周宣布立即禁止小麦出口。印度政府表示，价格飙升正在威胁印度和其他脆弱国家的粮食安全。印度是仅次于中国的世界第二大小麦生产国。部分归功于去年的丰收，此前印度曾成功填补了今年乌克兰减产留下的市场空白，即使其他粮食出口大国早前已因为恶劣的天气而减产。
2019年以来的主要农产品价格走势（上排依次为：小麦、玉米、大麦；下排：葵花籽油、棕榈油、菜籽油）
In the global food system, supply-demand problems were previously mostly down to weather and other supply-related factors. In the last few years, the golbal pandemic tested, and in many ways proved, the resilience of the global food supply system. But now, with the war in Ukraine, we are seeing severe problems in the global food supply chain and it's difficult to predict the medium- or long-term implications. These new issues are occurring on top of an already tight - but at least functional - food supply chain. Before the war in Ukraine, food prices had already risen 18% over the pandemic.
在全球粮食系统中，供需问题以前主要归因于天气和其他与供应相关的因素。过去几年里，全球大流行测试并在许多方面证明了全球粮食供应系统的弹性。但现在，随着乌克兰战争，我们看到全球食品供应链出现严重问题，很难预测中长期影响。这些新问题发生在已经紧张但至少功能正常的食品供应链之上。在乌克兰战争之前，食品价格已经在大流行期间上涨了18%。
在全球粮食系统中，供需问题以前主要归因于天气和其他与供应相关的因素。过去几年里，全球大流行测试并在许多方面证明了全球粮食供应系统的弹性。但现在，随着乌克兰战争，我们看到全球食品供应链出现严重问题，很难预测中长期影响。这些新问题发生在已经紧张但至少功能正常的食品供应链之上。在乌克兰战争之前，食品价格已经在大流行期间上涨了18%。
…………
Right now, we don't know how long the conflict will last in Ukraine, but between 19 million and 34 million tons of export production could disappear this year. Next year, depending on the situation in Ukraine, the figure could be between ten million and 43 million tons. That translates into the necessary caloric intake for 60 million to 150 million people. Apart from the obvious issues of people going hungry, a reduction in food supply means that prices can be expected to rise, and these higher prices will affect an even broader range of the world's population, well beyond 150 million people. The World Bank has warned that for each percentage point increase in food prices, 10mn additional people are thrown into extreme poverty worldwide.
目前我们无法预测乌克兰冲突将持续多久，但今年可能会有1900万吨到3400万吨的粮食出口就此消失。明年，视乌克兰的情况，这个数字可能在1千万吨到4300万吨之间。这就相当于6千万到1.5亿人一年所需的热量摄入。除了造成饥饿这个显而易见的问题外，粮食供应的减少还意味着食品价格的上涨，而更高的食品价格将影响到世界上更广泛的人口，远远超过1.5亿人。世界银行警告说，食品价格每上涨一个百分点，全球就会有1千万人陷入极端贫困。
Right now, we don't know how long the conflict will last in Ukraine, but between 19 million and 34 million tons of export production could disappear this year. Next year, depending on the situation in Ukraine, the figure could be between ten million and 43 million tons. That translates into the necessary caloric intake for 60 million to 150 million people. Apart from the obvious issues of people going hungry, a reduction in food supply means that prices can be expected to rise, and these higher prices will affect an even broader range of the world's population, well beyond 150 million people. The World Bank has warned that for each percentage point increase in food prices, 10mn additional people are thrown into extreme poverty worldwide.
目前我们无法预测乌克兰冲突将持续多久，但今年可能会有1900万吨到3400万吨的粮食出口就此消失。明年，视乌克兰的情况，这个数字可能在1千万吨到4300万吨之间。这就相当于6千万到1.5亿人一年所需的热量摄入。除了造成饥饿这个显而易见的问题外，粮食供应的减少还意味着食品价格的上涨，而更高的食品价格将影响到世界上更广泛的人口，远远超过1.5亿人。世界银行警告说，食品价格每上涨一个百分点，全球就会有1千万人陷入极端贫困。
Reduced grain exports from Ukraine will hit particularly hard in Africa and the Middle East, where much of the country's wheat goes. Ukraine accounts for 80 percent of Lebanon's wheat imports and is a leading supplier for countries including Somalia, Syria, and Libya. Egypt imports almost two-thirds of the wheat in consumes, making it the world's largest wheat importer. More than 80 percent of the wheat Egypt imports comes from Russia and Ukraine. So, the impact of the war in Ukraine will be felt across many nations. Poor countries, which are already facing widespread hunger, will feel the pain the most.
乌克兰粮食出口减少，将对非洲和中东造成尤为严重的影响，这些地区的国家是乌克兰小麦的主要出口对象。乌克兰提供了黎巴嫩小麦进口量的80%，同时也是索马里、叙利亚和利比亚等国的主要供应国。埃及进口本国消费的小麦的近三分之二，这使其成为世界最大小麦进口国，而埃及80%以上的小麦进口来自俄罗斯和乌克兰。因此，许多国家将感受到乌克兰战争的影响。其中已经面临大面积饥饿的贫穷国家将受到最大冲击。
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You took the issue very seriously and did not downplay the impact, but you still didn't resort to fear mongering and sensationalizing. I appreciate it. It's much better than Jake Tran's video title "So We're All Going to Starve"
博主对待这个问题非常严肃认真，没有试图淡化事态的严重性，而同时又没有诉诸耸人听闻式地贩卖恐惧感。这一点我很欣赏。比起另一个博主Jake Tran的视频标题“我们所有人都要挨饿啦”实在好太多。
The natural outcome of a food shortage is starvation. Maybe not you, but the poorest of the poor will indeed starve. So its not inaccurate. The price of something is the equilibrium point where supply and demand meet. When the price increases demand falls. Those who fall off the demand curve are the ones who can't afford the food price and they also won't have food to eat.
粮食短缺自然会导致饥荒。也许你没事，但穷人里最贫困的那一部分肯定会挨饿。所以那个视频也并非夸大。某种商品的价格就是由供给和需求形成的平衡点。当价格上涨，需求就会下降。那些被从需求曲线上挤下来的人，也就是不再能负担食品价格的人，他们当然会挨饿。
The truth is americans and west will just about get through this crisis but indeed there are catastrophic events waiting for the rest of the world. This famine will bring about alot of regime changes and protests cause the poor will really starve
其实美国以及整个西方就快要度过这场危机了，但确实，后续还会有灾难性（粮食危机）事件在世界其他国家爆发。这场饥荒将导致许多国家的抗议乃至政权更迭，因为很多穷人真的会没有吃的。
@Radamir Abdulle America will be very much affected. The divide between the low and high class will grow as the prices in food and gas grows while wages stagnate. You can already see that divide right now and it will only grow. People will blame the rich and overpopulation when in reality, there just isn't enough food + resources to go around without taking advantage of more poor nations (which we already do to some extent).
@Radamir Abdulle，美国也会受到很大影响。随着食品和汽油价格上涨而工资停滞不前，高低收入阶层之间的分化会进一步扩大。你现在已经能清楚看到这条鸿沟了，而它只会越来越大。人们会把（粮食危机的）罪过推给富裕国家和人口过剩等等，然而事实上，世界就是拿不出更多的粮食+资源去优惠更多穷国了（而我们也已经在一定程度上这样做了）。
wtf_ usa
Thank you for bring attention to this Patrick. This is going to be a HUGE problem this fall/winter. A mass starvation event is on the way. The poorest countries will suffer most.
谢谢博主能关注这个话题。粮食短缺会在今年秋冬引发巨大问题，一场大规模饥荒即将爆发。最贫穷的国家会遭受最大的冲击。
Maybe the poorest countries should stop having kids they can't feed...
也许最贫穷国家应该少生点孩子，既然他们养不活这么多……
@Bonzi Buddy That’s a discussion best kept off the comment section, haha. Just to add oil on the fire ur trying to start, I’ll mention Bill Gates’ contribution to the population boom in the poor counties you’re thinking about
@Bonzi Buddy，这个话题最好不要在评论区里讨论，哈哈。不过如果要给你点的这把火上再浇点油的话，我会聊一聊比尔·盖茨为这些贫穷国家的人口激增所做的贡献。
@louisvl10 it's true though. why have kids that you can't feed. same with poor people in the us who have many kids that they can't feed and live off of the government.
@louisvl10，但这是真话啊。为什么明明养不活还要生。美国穷人也是这个情况，他们生很多孩子，自己根本养不活，全靠政府救济。
Calbear712
I was 24 when COVID first started, now I’m turning 27 soon. It feels like I’m gonna be 40 by the time the world is somewhat stable and normal again
新冠疫情刚爆发时我24岁，现在我都快27岁了。感觉等到世界恢复稳定正常的时候，我可能已经40岁了。
Yeah, I'm a year older than you. My youth is being wasted, and it feels terrible.
One of the only two companies I've ever worked has shut down because of the lockdowns, and the other had huge layoffs when covid began.
I'm now again looking for a job. Broke.
The worst part is, it's only getting worse. The next 3 years at least are needed to recover from the coming food shortage.
是啊，我只比你大一岁。我的青春就这么浪费掉了，感觉真的很糟。
我工作过的仅有的两家公司，一家因为封城而倒闭，另一家在新冠爆发时进行了大规模裁员。
我现在破产了，又在找工作啦。
最糟糕的是，情况只会越来越坏。要从即将到来的粮食危机中恢复过来，至少还需要3年时间。
unfortunately the world will only get more and more unstable as climate change gets worse :(
不幸的是，随着气候变化的影响不断加剧，世界只会变得越来越不稳定：(
The world today is as normal as it will be for the rest of our lives
在我们的余生里，今天的世界就是“正常的世界”了。
@Allen Dulles I refuse to believe that. I have an optimistic disposition by nature. As bleak as it feels right now, things will get better. Our society goes through highs and lows and this is undoubtedly a low. And it might stay low for a long time, maybe even for years, and it may get even lower, who knows. But we’ll rebound at some point. We’ve had some incredibly dark periods in our history, but we eventually came out the other end to wonderful and prosperous times. I have no reason to believe that this will be any different
Still, the struggle to stay optimistic at times can be very real
@Allen Dulles，我拒绝接受这种观点！我是天生的乐观派，不管现在的世界感觉多无望，情况总会好起来的。我们的社会总会经历高低起伏，目前无疑是一个低谷，而且可能会在很长一段时间里停留在低谷，可能持续好多年，甚至可能还没到谷底，谁知道呢。但我们总会在未来某个时候反弹的。历史上我们经历过好些个难以想象的黑暗时期，但最终我们都走了出来，走向了美好繁荣的时代。没有理由让我相信今天会有什么不同（笑脸）
不过呢，要努力保持住这份乐观，有时真的很吃力。
@Calbear712 The current times are probably one of the best compared to most of human history. The world could easily get much, much worse.
@Calbear712，与人类历史的大部分时期相比，如今可能已经是最好的时代之一了。这个世界如果要变得比现在糟糕很多很多，可一点也不难。
Thing is...wars happen, pandemics happen, massive recessions happen, food shortages happen. It's all pretty normal. I wouldn't worry about it too much! Well maybe worry if nuclear war breaks out but apart from that ... remember that the sun also rises.
其实吧……战争时有发生，大流行病时有发生，大规模衰退时有发生，粮食短缺时有发生。一切其实都挺正常的。我不会太担心！如果爆发核战争也许我会担心，但除此之外嘛……记住，太阳还会照常升起。
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bogrunberger
This is going to be a horrible year. I know a woman in Uganda and write to her often. She said that prices for some food items had already risen by 100% before the war in Ukraine began.
今年将是可怕的一年。我认识一位住在乌干达的女士，经常和她通信。她告诉我，早在乌克兰战争爆发前，一些食品的价格就已经上涨了100%。
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That is incredibly sad to hear.
这真让人难过极了。
Overpopulation will be addressed real soon.
人口过剩问题很快就能得到解决啦。
@Michael Boone Right. Easy to say when you are conveniently, comfortably out of reach of the detriment of such an event.
@Michael Boone，是啊。当你身在一个便捷、舒适的环境，远离此类事件的危害时，说这种话可容易啦。
I think this will be the best year because the next years will be very very very hard
我倒认为今年将是最好的一年，因为接下来的几年将会非常非常艰难。
Why can't people in Uganda grow their own food? There is a wonderful warm climate where you can grow anything. If they don't want to work, then that's their problem.
为什么乌干达人不能自己种粮食呢？那里的气候温暖宜人，种什么都行。如果他们不愿劳动，那就是他们自己的问题。
@Andrej Who does the land belong to? I'm sure not the average man or woman. Perhaps you asked an honest question, Perhaps racism was behind your response and conclusion. Perhaps you could educate yourself to find the answer.
@Andrej，但那些土地归谁所有？我敢肯定不是乌干达的普通平民。也许你只是发自内心地提问，也许你已经有了一个带有种族主义色彩的答案和结论。也许你可以多学习，试着自己找到答案。
@Andrej it's actually true. The land is very fertile. Unfortunately it's also very expensive.
@Andrej，其实你说得没错。那里的土地十分肥沃，但不幸的是它（土地价格）同样十分昂贵。
@bogrunberger In developed countries, land is also expensive and not everyone owns it, but, nevertheless, there is no problem of hunger. That's not the reason
@bogrunberger，在发达国家土地也很贵，也不是每个人都有。但发达国家却没有饥荒问题。所以这不是理由。
@Andrej yes, why cant they grow their own food? its simple, its too expensive to grow their own food for most of their farmers, sounds werid but thats the result of food dumping by rich countries namely EU, by food dumping i mean aids. after ww2 in order to not live through rationing again EU has always spending hundreds of billions each year to pay their farmers to overproduce, the excess food are sent to africa in the form of aids since storing them are too expensive, those aids foods are dirt cheap which in term bankrupt most of the african farmers made africa arguculture sector permenantly poor.
@Andrej ，是啊，为什么他们不能自己种粮食呢？答案很简单：对当地大多数农民来说，自己种粮食成本太高了！听起来很奇怪是吧，但这正是富裕国家——也就是欧盟倾销粮食的结果。而我所说的粮食倾销，就是所谓的“粮食援助”。二战后，为了避免再次陷入粮食配给的困境，欧盟国际每年都要花费数千亿美元补贴他们的农民超额生产粮食。多出来的粮食就会以援助的形式被送往非洲，因为储存这些粮食的费用太贵。由于这些援助食品极其便宜，最终导致大多数非洲农民破产，非洲国家的农业部门长期得不到发展。
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@John Titor Source? Sounds reasonable but it only half makes sense.
Why would someone purposely under-value their resource (food) below local market value?
If a local farmer can sell a carrot for $0.50, why would any reasonable capitalist ever sell it for, say, $0.05? They could easily charge $0.40, undercut the local market whilst making a greater profit... Would also allow the local $0.50 farmer to compete.
Everyone wins in that scenario.
@John Titor，有相关资料吗？你说的听上去有些道理，但又有些似是而非。
为什么会有人故意低估自己拥有的资源（粮食）的价值，使其低于当地市场价格？
如果当地农民可以以0.5美元的价格出售一根胡萝卜，那么任何一个理性的资本家，为什么会，比方说，以0.05美元的价格出售？他们大可把价格降到0.4美元一根，拉低当地市场价格的同时，获得更大的利润……这样当地农民售价0.5美元的胡萝卜也仍然有竞争力。
这样不就双赢了吗。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
@SEVENTEEN because subsidy, for example in year 2019 eu spent 38.2 billion directly in subsidy alone to farmers. those food products from EU dont care about profits since they are heavily subsidised by the government to overproduce, they are dumped on african market for whichever the price, they dont care even if its been dumped as aids with no profit at all since they already got their money from subsidy they just want to get rid of the excess so they dont have to pay for the storage. whats even funnier is african usually buys those food from EU with the aids money from EU which has mandate to spent the aids money for products from EU. theres simply no way for african farmers to compete with that
@SEVENTEEN，因为补贴。例如在2019年，欧盟仅仅是给农民的直接补贴就花了382亿欧元。那些来自欧盟的食品根本不在乎利润，因为它们已经得到了政府的大量补贴，生产过剩，被倾销到非洲市场，无论价格多少他们都不在乎，即使是被当作援助白送没有任何利润也没关系，因为他们已经从补贴中得到了资金，现在只是想摆脱多余的粮食从而不必为其支付仓储费用。更有趣的是，非洲人还经常会用欧盟的援助资金从欧盟购买粮食，因为欧盟的援助资金有义务优先购买欧盟的产品。非洲农民根本没法和这种机制竞争。
Dwayne Klassen
A few decades ago Canada's prairies were known as the "Bread Basket Of The World". Yeah, Canada was once the largest wheat producer in the world. All the logistics and infrastructure is still here to do that. In fact, Canada could literally provide the entire world with wheat, fuel, and fertilizer. But there is an agenda in play that ensures that these resources never get to market. In fact, it is so messed up that Canada's government would rather import these items than actually employ its own people to produce what is abundantly at their fingertips to export to the world. We need to stop the "Blame Russia For Everything" narrative. This is a planned ramp-up of events by the globalists.
小几十年前，加拿大的北美大草原也曾被誉为“世界的面包房”。是的，加拿大曾经是世界最大的小麦生产国。所有配套的物流和基础设施至今也仍能胜任。事实上，加拿大完全可以向全世界提供小麦、燃料和肥料。然而有一个因素正在从中作梗，其目的就是为了确保这些资源永远无法进入市场。加拿大政府宁可进口这些物资也不愿意雇佣本国人生产这些轻而易举就能得到的丰富产品并出口到全世界，这件事真是糟透了。我们不能再只知道一味地说“一切都是俄罗斯的错”。
You have no idea what you are talking about. I work in the Grain industry, grain is constantly being shipped out to markets.
你完全不知道自己在说什么。我就在粮食行业工作，加拿大产的粮食从没退出过国际市场。
@nystuen17 I didn’t say it wasn’t going anywhere. It’s at a fraction of what it was both domestically and internationally. There should be no wheat shortage or sky high prices anywhere in North America.
@nystuen17，我没说它一点没有往外卖。但卖出去的只是总量里很少很少的一部分。北美洲任何地方都不应该出现小麦短缺或者粮食价格飙涨。
@Dwayne Klassen There was a huge drought this past summer, production was only 50% of what is usually is. Most of what Canada grows gets shipped to China. The drought here combined with droughts elsewhere in grain producing countries and the conflict in Ukraine all drove the price up. Grain is more than double what is was worth a year ago. Lack of supply and high demand make sense the price has skyrocketed. Its crappy but everything else has doubled in price so I guess why not food.
@Dwayne Klassen，去年夏天发生的大旱灾，让产量锐减了50%。此外，加拿大的大部分（出口）农产品都运往了中国。而今年加拿大以及其它粮食生产国遭遇的干旱，和乌克兰冲突交织在一起推高了粮价。现在的谷物价格已经是一年前的两倍多了。供应不足加上需求旺盛，价格飞涨也是合理的。虽然很糟糕，但其它东西的价格也都在翻倍，所以我想说，粮食为什么就不能涨。
dont worry dwayne, the lord is watching them, and i believe jesus will come back soon, against these new world order satanists, they will not be allowed to go on, he is our hope now my good friend xxxx
层主不要担心，主正在盯着他们，我相信耶稣很快就会回来，反抗这些新世界秩序撒旦教徒，不会纵容他们再这样下去的，现在只有他才是我们的希望所在，我的朋友xxxx
The fact of the matter is, it's orders of magnitude cheaper to import products from poor or developing nations than to produce them in the first world. If anything you can blame capitalism for that because it's inevitable to outsource in a global market. Unless you go full protectionist and shut off the outside world and make everyone grow their own crops and build their own things, it costs way more to keep production stable in the first world.
然而事实是，从穷国或者说发展中国家进口商品，要比在第一世界生产这些产品便宜几个数量级。如果有什么是应该被指责的，那就是资本主义，因为在全球市场开放下生产外包是不可避免的。除非你完全实行保护主义，封闭外部世界，让所有人都自己种自己的粮食，自己造自己的东西，否则在第一世界保持稳定生产的成本实在太高了。
OpenSourceEduSolutions
In the US, I have a feeling we'll see serious, severe food shortages starting end of July at worst, beginning of September at best. We just had a egg producer in Minnesota, in business since 1918, burn to the ground including the loss of all laying hens--yes, another large food processing facility. It is my opinion these looming shortages of food and fuel are why our government is trying to disarm us. They don't care about the children--trust me, I worked in education for decades. The US government sees children as nothing more than a number and a dollar sign. They know when the shortages hit that a societal collapse like we saw in Sri Lanka is soon to follow. I believe our politicians are afraid to deal with the consequences of the policies they created.
在美国，我有这样一种感觉，最坏的情况是7月底开始，最好也不过撑到9月初，我们就会看到严重的粮食短缺。我们明尼苏达州刚刚有一家1918年开业的鸡蛋厂被烧成灰烬了，所有的蛋鸡都没了——没错，又一家大型食品处理厂！在我看来，我们的政府之所以急着想解除我们的武装，正是因为粮食和燃料短缺已经迫在眉睫。他们可不关心孩子什么的——相信我，我在教育行业工作了几十年——在美国政府看来孩子不过是一个个数字或者美元符号罢了。他们很清楚，一旦出现食品危机，我们很快就会看到像在斯里兰卡发生的那种社会面崩溃。我想我们的那些政客们，根本没胆量面对他们制定的那些政策造成的后果。
（译注：这位有点阴谋论，起因是22年以来美国各地多个大型食品处理厂相继发生火灾，且大都是人为纵火。）
Agree
同意
Because this IS BIBLICAL, NOT Political! We cannot stop what is coming, but we can be saved through Jesus! He is the Way, the truth and the life! He is our only savior!
因为这是《圣经》早已预言的，和政治无关！我们不能阻止即将发生的事，但我们可以通过耶稣获救！他就是道路、真理、生命！他是我们唯一的救世主！
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
@thylland it's only occuring because we did nothing to stop it
@thylland，发生粮食危机完全是因为我们没有为阻止它做任何事
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
nah, get a grip, you believe there are thousands of evil people all working together towars some conspiracy? with no one to stand up and stop them or at least blow the whistle? dont fall for the click bait, it will all be fine. we will get through it as we always have
不会啦，振作点儿，你真的相信成千上万的恶人正在合作策划一场大阴谋？没有任何人站出来阻止他们，或者至少出来当个吹哨者？别被网上那些危言耸听给骗了，一切都会好起来的。我们将一如既往地度过这次难关。
@Joshua Lee An insurance actuary stated there is no possible way this is random. People who work on the fire protection for large buildings of this type say there are no way for these buildings to burn like this unless the fire suppression system was turned off completely. Do you think you know more than those people?
@Joshua Lee，一位保险精算师指出，这些火灾不可能是随机的。专门从事此类大型建筑消防工作的人也说了，除非灭火系统被完全关闭，否则这些建筑不可能像这样燃烧。你认为你知道的比这些人都多是吧？
Jonathan Remington
Most of the world’s problems continue not because there isn’t a solution, but because our leaders don’t want them to be solved.
这个世界的大多数问题之所以持续存在，并不是因为没有办法解决，而是因为我们的领导人们不希望这些问题得到解决。
I live in Central Wisconsin and the farmers here are feeling all of those problems. Let's hope on a good rain supply. In the west , Colorado, Wyoming ,Nebraska and Kansas are experiencing a multi year draught. Oh hurricane season is coming.
我住在威斯康星州中部，这里的农民都感受到了你说的这些问题。但愿雨水能充足起来。在西部，科罗拉多州、怀俄明州、内布拉斯加州和堪萨斯州正在经历持续了好几年的干旱。哦还有，飓风季节马上就要到了。
Just remember folks, nothing radicalises populations like a bread queue.
Even if the food market stabilises and world production gets on top of this quickly, I feel like we're going to see huge civil unrest globally in the last half of this year.
大伙儿记住这一点，没有什么比排队买（领）面包的场景更能激化民众情绪的了。
就算粮食市场稳定下来，世界粮食产量迅速增长，我感觉今年下半年世界很多地方仍会爆发剧烈的社会动荡。
Just a couple of days after this video Malaysia announce a ban on chicken exports, to curb rising domestic chicken prices. Chicken prices had risen as a result of feed shortages coming from Ukraine. This is going to have dire consequences for Malaysian neighbours who depend on their export, particularly Singapore.
The knock on effects of interrupted trade in a global system stretch everywhere, especially in respect to raw materials like minerals, fertiliser, chemicals, plastics, and feed.
就在这个视频播出几天后，马来西亚就宣布禁止鸡肉出口，以遏制国内鸡肉价格上涨了。由于从乌克兰进口的饲料出现短缺，马来西亚的鸡肉价格已经涨了好多。这一出口禁令将给依赖马来西亚出口的一众邻国带来可怕的影响，尤其是新加坡。
全球体系下贸易中断的连锁反应正在波及整个世界，特别是在矿物、化肥、化学品、塑料和饲料等原材料领域。