乌克兰战争：一项地缘战略评估

Ukraine War: A Geostrategic Assessment

对正在进行的乌克兰战争的地缘战略评估

A geostrategic assessment of the ongoing Ukraine war.

扩张--入侵--叛乱

Expansion – Invasion – Insurgency

正在进行的俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵可以被看作是美国、北约和俄罗斯之间二十多年来地缘政治紧张关系的最新升级。更具体地说，它可以被看作是俄罗斯对美国-北约军事联盟二十年来东扩的第一次军事回应。

The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine may be seen as the latest escalation of over two decades of geopolitical tensions between the US, NATO and Russia. More specifically, it may be seen as a first Russian military response to two decades of eastern expansion of the US/NATO military alliance.

1991年前苏联乌克兰共和国独立后，美国最初希望在大约20年内和平地掌握作为一个附属国的乌克兰，这与东欧的其他前苏联或华沙条约国类似。在下面这个基于政治学教授大卫·西尔万和斯蒂芬·马耶斯基开发的模型流程图中，这样的发展将是情景J——这是整个图表中最和平的情景。

After the independence of the former Soviet republic of Ukraine in 1991, the US initially hoped to peacefully acquire Ukraine as a client state within about 20 years, similar to other former Soviet or Warsaw Pact states in Eastern Europe. In the flow chart shown below, which is based on a model developed by political science professors David Sylvan and Stephen Majeski, such a development would have been scenario J – the most peaceful scenario of the entire chart.


美国外交政策的逻辑。乌克兰可能会变成情景C、E或R。

The Logic of US Foreign Policy. Ukraine may turn out to be scenario C, E or R. (Sylvan&Majeski)

然而，就乌克兰的情况而言，这种努力变成了比预期的更困难，特别是由于在普京担任总统期间，俄罗斯地缘政治野心的重新抬头。因此，美国不得不发动两次政权更迭或革命——2004年的“橙色革命”和2014年的“欧洲独立运动”——以掌握作为附属国或代理国的乌克兰（上文情景L）。

In the case of Ukraine, however, this endeavor turned out to be more difficult than expected, especially due to the resurgence of Russian geopolitical ambitions during the Putin presidency. Thus, the US had to stage two regime changes or revolutions – the “Orange Revolution” in 2004 and the “EuroMaidan” in 2014 – to acquire Ukraine as a client or proxy state (scenario L above).

2014年，俄罗斯的回应是吞并或重新整合克里米亚（俄罗斯黑海舰队的基地所在地），并支持乌克兰东部俄语区事实上的分离运动。此外，俄罗斯警告称，不要把乌克兰作为成员或伙伴纳入北约，这被认为是对俄罗斯的直接军事和战略威胁——类似于美国对于俄罗斯或中国与墨西哥或古巴结成军事联盟的看法。

Russia responded, in 2014, by annexing or re-integrating Crimea (base of the Russian Black Sea fleet) and by backing the de facto secession of Russian-speaking parts of Eastern Ukraine. In addition, Russia warned against adding Ukraine as a member or partner to NATO, which was perceived as a direct military and strategic threat to Russia – similar to how the United States might perceive a Russian or Chinese military alliance with Mexico or Cuba.

在特朗普担任总统期间（2017-2020年），乌克兰冲突基本上停滞不前（见下文讨论）。然而，随着拜登总统任期的到来，他在许多方面奉行更传统的美国外交政策，乌克兰冲突再次升温。特别是恢复了关于将乌克兰作为伙伴或成员纳入北约的会谈，并重新启动了收复乌克兰东部分离领土的计划，甚至可能是收复克里米亚。最近，乌克兰总统讨论了获得核武器以威慑俄罗斯的可能性。

During the Trump presidency (2017-2020), the Ukraine conflict essentially stalled (see discussion below). Yet with the advent of the Biden presidency, which in many ways pursues a more traditional US foreign policy, the Ukraine conflict heated up again. In particular, talks about adding Ukraine as a partner or member to NATO resumed and plans to recapture the breakaway territories in Eastern Ukraine and possibly even Crimea were reactivated. More recently, the Ukrainian President discussed the possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons to deter Russia.

2021年12月，俄罗斯发表了一系列建议或要求，向美国和北约提出了关于相互安全保障的建议。特别是，俄罗斯要求美国和北约从1997年后加入北约的成员国（即所有东欧国家）中撤出其部队和军事基础设施；不接纳前苏联共和国加入北约（如乌克兰和格鲁吉亚）；从欧洲撤出美国的核武器；并恢复《中程核力量条约》（美国于2019年暂停）。在这些地方可以看到俄罗斯的全部提议。

In December 2021, Russia published a set of proposals or demands, addressed to the US and NATO, concerning mutual security guarantees. In particular, Russia asked the US and NATO to remove their forces and military infrastructure from member states that joined the alliance after 1997 (i.e. all of Eastern Europe); to not admit former Soviet republics into NATO (e.g. Ukraine and Georgia); to remove US nuclear weapons from Europe; and to reinstate the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (suspended by the US in 2019). See the full Russian proposals here and here.

2022年1月，美国和北约都拒绝了这些提议或要求，认为其不现实。“这个联盟不会让时间倒流，回到一个完全不同的时代，我们有一个非常不同的联盟，它的规模更小，影响范围也非常不同”，美国北约特使在2022年1月11日如是说道。六周后，2022年2月24日，俄罗斯发动了对乌克兰的入侵（见下节更详细的讨论）。

In January 2022, both the US and NATO turned down these proposals or demands as unrealistic. “This alliance is not going to be rolling back time and returning to a completely different era, where we had a very different alliance with smaller and a very different footprint.”, the US NATO envoy said on January 11, 2022. Six weeks later, on February 24, 2022, Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine (see more detailed discussion in next section).

如果俄罗斯的军事行动实现了其目标，这将导致乌克兰失去作为美国附属国或代理国的地位（上述流程图中的情景C）。然而，几个北约成员国已经开始向乌克兰提供反坦克和防空武器，或考虑在乌克兰部分地区设立“禁飞区”（即情景E：军事支持）。此外，还有计划支持针对俄罗斯占领的或俄罗斯控制的乌克兰地区的武装叛乱（情景R）。

If the Russian military operation achieves its goals, this would lead to the loss of Ukraine as a US client or proxy state (scenario C in the flow chart above). However, several NATO members have already started to provide anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons to Ukraine or consider a “no-fly zone” over parts of Ukraine (i.e. scenario E: military support). In addition, there are plans to support an armed insurgency against a Russian-occupied or Russian-controlled Ukraine (scenario R).

作为对其入侵乌克兰的回应，北约国家以前所未有的经济和外交制裁打击俄罗斯，一些西方政治家呼吁在莫斯科进行政权更迭或暗杀俄罗斯总统（情景L）。

In response to its invasion of Ukraine, NATO countries hit Russia with unprecedented economic and diplomatic sanctions, and some Western politicians have called for a regime change in Moscow or the assassination of the Russian President (scenario L).

侵略--先发制人--挑衅

Aggression – Preemption – Provocation

为了全面评估俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵，我们可以将地缘政治层面和军事层面区分开来讨论。

In order to assess the Russian invasion of Ukraine in a comprehensive way, one may distinguish between the geopolitical level and the military level.

在地缘政治层面，到目前为止，俄罗斯的干预可能不得不被看作是对北约20年来在东欧扩张的一种防御性和近乎绝望的举动（一些俄罗斯分析家也许会把它看作是“击退”北约扩张的大胆防御性举动）。

At the geopolitical level, the Russian intervention may have to be seen, so far, as a defensive and almost desperate move in response to 20 years of NATO expansion in Eastern Europe (some Russian analysts might perhaps see it as bold defensive move to “roll back” NATO expansion).

事实上，许多著名的美国地缘战略家——包括乔治·凯南、亨利·基辛格、约翰·米尔斯海默和斯蒂芬·科恩——长期以来一直建议反对北约向东欧，特别是向乌克兰扩张，以避免与俄罗斯发生直接对抗。然而，其他美国地缘战略家，如兹比格涅夫·布热津斯基，则支持将乌克兰纳入北约，以限制俄罗斯在欧洲的影响。

Indeed, many leading US geostrategists – including George Kennan, Henry Kissinger, John Mearsheimer and Stephen Cohen – have long been advising against the expansion of NATO to Eastern Europe and especially to Ukraine in order to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia. Other US geostrategists, however, such as Zbigniew Brzezinski, supported the inclusion of Ukraine into NATO to limit Russian influence in Europe.

在军事层面上，俄罗斯对乌克兰的干预一般被认为是一种进攻性行动（即非法入侵），类似于美国1983年入侵格林纳达、1989年入侵巴拿马和2003年入侵伊拉克（情景A和S）。美国/北约1999年对塞尔维亚、2001年对阿富汗、2011年对利比亚和2014年对叙利亚的战争主要包括空袭，并使用当地（或外国）民兵作为地面部队（情景Q和R）。

At the military level, the Russian intervention in Ukraine is generally seen as an offensive move (i.e. an illegal invasion), similar to the US invasions of Grenada in 1983, of Panama in 1989, and of Iraq in 2003 (scenarios A and S). The US/NATO wars against Serbia in 1999, against Afghanistan in 2001, against Libya in 2011 and against Syria from 2014 consisted primarily of airstrikes and used local (or foreign) militias as ground forces (scenarios Q and R).

不过，俄罗斯政府似乎有一些不同的主张。据俄罗斯称，自2014年以来，基辅对乌克兰东部的俄语分离共和国发动了长达8年的军事行动，这被俄罗斯描述为“种族灭绝”，造成多达14000人死亡。2022年2月21日，俄罗斯正式承认这些分离主义共和国，并要求基辅停止其军事行动。俄罗斯认为，由于西方在1991年斯洛文尼亚，特别是2008年科索沃制造的先例，正式承认这些共和国的独立地位得到了国际法的支持。最后，2月24日，俄罗斯通过对乌克兰发动“特别军事行动”（即入侵），回应了自己的代理人共和国的“求援”。

The Russian government appears to argue somewhat differently, though. According to Russia, Kiev had been waging, since 2014, an eight-year military campaign against the Russian-language breakaway republics in Eastern Ukraine, described by Russia as a “genocide” that had cost up to 14,000 lives. On February 21, 2022, Russia formally recognized the separatist republics and asked Kiev to halt its military campaign. Russia argued that the formal recognition of the republics was backed by international law due to the Western precedents of Slovenia in 1991 and especially Kosovo in 2008. Finally, on February 24, Russia responded to an “appeal for help” from its own proxy republics by launching a “special military operation” (i.e. an invasion) against Ukraine.

一些分析家最初预计，俄罗斯只会在乌克兰东部发起有限的“维和”行动（以保护这些“共和国”免受乌克兰的攻击）。然而，俄罗斯总统后来认为，这样的行动无法解决俄罗斯对北约军事支持和向乌克兰扩张的战略关切。

Some analysts initially expected that Russia would only launch a limited “peacekeeping” operation in Eastern Ukraine (to protect the “republics” against a Ukrainian offensive). However, the Russian President later argued that such an operation would not have solved Russia’s strategic concerns regarding NATO’s military support for and expansion into Ukraine.

其他分析人士——主要是俄罗斯方面的分析人士——认为，俄罗斯得知乌克兰即将对分离主义领土发动进攻，因此决定对基辅发动先发制人的打击。虽然欧安组织确实报告说，在俄罗斯干预之前的几天里，军事活动和违反停火的情况有所增加，但现有的证据并不足以支持这一假说。此外，有可信的证据表明，俄罗斯情报部门在入侵前上演了几场所谓的“乌克兰挑衅行动”。

Other analysts, mostly on the Russian side, argued that Russia had learned of an imminent Ukrainian offensive against the separatist territories and, therefore, decided to launch a preemptive strike against Kiev. While it is true that the OSCE had reported an increase in military activity and ceasefire violations in the days leading up to the Russian intervention, the currently available evidence is not sufficient to support this hypothesis. Furthermore, there is credible evidence that Russian intelligence staged several supposed “Ukrainian provocations” prior to the invasion.

最后，还有一种假设是，美国可能故意将乌克兰设为一个陷阱，迫使俄罗斯卷入战争，然后利用战争对俄罗斯实施破坏性的经济和外交制裁，并对俄罗斯发起可能是持久的武装叛乱。
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Finally, there is the hypothesis that the US may have purposefully used Ukraine as a trap to force Russia into a war that could then be used to impose devastating economic and diplomatic sanctions and launch a potentially protracted armed insurgency against Russia.

这种情况确实有几个历史先例可循，尽管“官方历史”和“电视纪录片”经常试图无视或掩盖这种隐蔽的挑衅行为。

There are indeed several historical precedents for such a scenario, even though “official history” and “TV documentaries” often try to disregard or conceal such covert provocations:

2008年，美国支持的格鲁吉亚政府试图夺回俄罗斯支持的分离主义领土阿伯卡茨共和国和南奥塞梯共和国的控制权，这引发了俄-格战争（南奥塞梯战争），但美国和格鲁吉亚可能没有料到俄罗斯的反应。

In 2008, the US-backed Georgian government tried to retake control of the Russian-backed separatist territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which triggered the Russo-Georgian War, but the US and Georgia may not have expected the Russian response.

1999年，美国利用阿尔巴尼亚的科索沃解放军民兵力量挑起了塞尔维亚在科索沃的行动，并根据各种虚假的主张，对塞尔维亚发动了科索沃战争。

In 1999, the US used the Albanian KLA militia to provoke a Serbian operation in Kosovo and launch the Kosovo War against Serbia, based on various false claims.

1990年，美国欺骗伊拉克，让它以为可以入侵科威特以解决石油争端，然后发动了第二次海湾战争，其部分依据是虚假的“科威特恒温箱婴儿”的故事。

In 1990, the US tricked Iraq into assuming it could invade Kuwait to settle an oil dispute, only to then launch the Second Gulf War, based in part on the bogus “Kuwaiti incubator babies” story.

1979年，美国秘密武装和部署阿拉伯圣战者（包括本·拉登），以攻击苏联在阿富汗的代理人政权（旋风行动），并引发了为期十年的苏联干预，这被当作苏联的无端入侵向西方公众大肆宣传。

In 1979, the US covertly armed and deployed Arab Mujahideen (including Bin Laden) to attack the Soviet client regime in Afghanistan (Operation Cyclone) and trigger a ten-year Soviet intervention that was sold to the Western public as an unprovoked Soviet invasion.

1964年，美国在越南北部湾挑起了第一次海军事件，并编造了第二次事件，以证明其加入越南战争的正当性。

In 1964, the United States provoked a first naval incident and made up a second incident in the Vietnamese Gulf of Tonkin to justify its entry into the Vietnam war.

1950年，美国可能利用韩国的代理人政府对朝鲜进行边境挑衅，并发动朝鲜战争，最终因中国参战而失败。然而，朝鲜战争的真正起源仍然相当不确定。

In 1950, the US may have used the South Korean client government to stage border provocations against North Korea and launch the Korea War, which ultimately failed when the Chinese entered the war. The true origins of the Korea War remain rather uncertain, however.

1939年，美国和英国似乎利用波兰挑起了德国的进攻并发动了第二次世界大战，后来在华沙找到的外交文件表明了这一点。1941年，美国似乎挑起了日本对珍珠港的攻击——由于他们已经破译了日本的密码，所以提前知道了这一点——以积极加入战争。

In 1939, the US and Britain appear to have used Poland to provoke a German attack and launch World War II, as diplomatic documents recovered in Warsaw later showed. In 1941, the US appears to have provoked the Japanese attack against Pearl Harbor – of which they knew in advance as they had already broken Japanese codes – to actively enter the war.

1914年，俄罗斯情报部门可能利用塞尔维亚民族主义者暗杀了奥匈帝国的王位继承人弗朗茨·斐迪南大公，与英国和法国一起发动了第一次世界大战，对抗德意志帝国和奥斯曼（土耳其）帝国。1915年，英国和美国挑起卢西塔尼亚号沉没事件，开始准备让美国参战。

In 1914, Russian intelligence may have used Serbian nationalists to assassinate Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary, to launch World War I together with Britain and France against Imperial Germany and the Ottoman (Turkish) Empire. In 1915, Britain and the US provoked the Lusitania naval incident to start preparing the US entry into the war.

虽然美国之前肯定在考虑俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的可能性——毕竟他们在几个星期前就发出了警告——但仍然不能确定这是否是他们的真实意图，或者他们是否希望在俄罗斯未作出反应的情况下重新夺回顿巴斯地区。无论如何，俄罗斯决定入侵似乎不仅仅是由于东乌克兰的局势，而是由于更大的地缘战略考虑，正如俄罗斯总统自己所描述的那样。
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While it is certainly true that the US was considering the possibility of a Russian invasion in Ukraine – after all, they were warning of it for several weeks – it remains uncertain if this was in fact their intention, or if they hoped to retake the Donbas region without a Russian response. At any rate, it appears that the Russian decision to invade was not just due to the situation in Eastern Ukraine, but due to larger geostrategic considerations, as described by the Russian President himself.

特朗普-寡头-民族主义者
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Trump – Oligarchs – Nationalists

上文已经提到，在特朗普担任总统期间（2017-2020年），乌克兰冲突基本上停滞不前。有几个原因可以解释这种地缘政治的停滞。

It has been mentioned above that during the Trump presidency (2017-2020), the Ukraine conflict essentially stalled. Several reasons might explain this geopolitical hiatus:

总的来说，特朗普不赞成干预主义的外交政策，尽管他的政府试图在委内瑞拉和玻利维亚进行政权更迭；暗杀伊朗将军卡西姆·苏莱曼尼；并对叙利亚发动（相当象征性的）导弹打击，以回应北约支持的伊斯兰武装力量发动的化学武器袭击。
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In general, Trump was not in favor of an interventionist foreign policy, even though his administration attempted regime changes in Venezuela and Bolivia; assassinated Iranian general Qasem Soleimani; and launched (rather symbolic) missile strikes against Syria in response to chemical weapons attacks staged by NATO-backed Islamist militias.

更具体而言，特朗普不是北约联盟以及该联盟涉及的美国国际军事和财政义务的重要支持者。
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More specifically, Trump was not a big supporter of the NATO alliance and the international US military and financial obligations the alliance involves.

特朗普和他的几个同伴与乌克兰和俄罗斯的大部分犹太商人和寡头有密切联系，他们帮助这些商人和寡头将资金投入美国的房地产项目。这些寡头是乌克兰冲突的最大金融输家之一，无论是乌克兰方面（由于入侵）还是俄罗斯方面（由于制裁）。在乌克兰方面，他们中的大多数人在俄罗斯入侵的前几天就逃离了该国。
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Trump and several of his companions have had close lixs to mostly Jewish businessmen and oligarchs in Ukraine and Russia, whose money they helped invest into US real estate projects. These oligarchs are among the biggest financial losers of the Ukraine conflict, both on the Ukrainian side (due to the invasion) and on the Russian side (due to the sanctions). On the Ukrainian side, most of them fled the country in the days prior to the Russian invasion.

关于最后一点，值得注意的是，犹太裔乌克兰寡头伊戈尔·科洛莫伊斯基不仅是现任乌克兰总统泽连斯基（他也是犹太人）的财政赞助商，也是所谓的“新纳粹”亚速营和其他几个反俄民族主义军事单位的赞助商。这些军事力量可能持有或不持有反犹观点，但无论如何，他们似乎在一个更大的政治和地缘政治游戏中充当棋子。

On this last point, it is interesting to note that Jewish-Ukrainian oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky is the financial sponsor not only of current Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (who is also Jewish), but also of the so-called “neo-nazi” Azov battalion and several other anti-Russian nationalist battalions. These battalions may or may not hold anti-Jewish views, but at any rate they appear to serve as pawns in a much larger political and geopolitical game.

因此，当俄罗斯政府今天声称要对乌克兰“去纳粹化”时，这可能主要指的不是纳粹意识形态的反犹太方面，而是纳粹德国是最后一个试图入侵和征服（苏联）俄罗斯的大国。

Thus, when the Russian government today claims to “de-nazify” Ukraine, this may refer not primarily to the anti-Jewish aspects of NS ideology, but to the fact that NS Germany was the last power that attempted to invade and conquer (Soviet) Russia.

事实上，在二战期间，许多东欧国家——从芬兰到波罗的海国家、匈牙利和乌克兰——宁愿与德国并肩作战，对抗当时与英国和美国结盟的苏联。特别是乌克兰，由于可怕的“大饥荒”导致数百万乌克兰人丧生，它在早期对苏联的看法极为负面。芬兰在1939/40年受到了苏联的攻击，波罗的海国家在1940年被苏联占领。

In fact, during World War II, many Eastern European countries – from Finland to the Baltic states, Hungary and Ukraine – preferred fighting alongside Germany against the Soviet unx, which at the time was allied with Britain and the United States. Ukraine, in particular, had an extremely negative early Soviet experience due to the horrific “Holodomor” famines that killed millions of Ukrainians. Finland got attacked by the USSR in 1939/40 and the Baltic states got occupied by the USSR in 1940.

讽刺的是，虽然乌克兰民族主义者希望与德国一起对抗苏联，但当时的德国并不支持乌克兰民族主义者（他们寻求获得乌克兰独立），因为德国对战后乌克兰有自己的计划。因此，乌克兰民族主义领导人斯捷潘·班德拉最终被关进了德国集中营，直到1944年才被释放，帮助对抗最终打败了德国的苏联大规模反攻。

Ironically, while Ukrainian nationalists hoped to fight alongside Germany against the Soviet unx, Germany at the time wasn’t supportive of Ukrainian nationalists (who sought to gain Ukrainian independence), as Germany had its own plans for post-war Ukraine. Thus, Ukrainian nationalist leader Stepan Bandera ended up in a German concentration camp and was released only in 1944 to help fight the massive Soviet counter-attack that ultimately defeated Germany.

今天，所有前华沙条约国和许多前苏联共和国都倾向于与西方北约国家结盟，而不是与俄罗斯结盟或保持中立地位（白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦和乌克兰东部地区除外）。再者，目前的俄罗斯政府本身在20多年前就试图与北约国家合作，甚至试图成为北约成员，但由于地缘战略的原因，被美国和英国回绝了，因为俄罗斯显然不打算成为西方的一个代理人国。

Today, all former Warsaw Pact states and many former Soviet unx republics favor an alliance with Western NATO countries over an alliance with Russia or a neutral status (exceptions include Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Eastern Ukraine). Then again, the current Russian government has itself tried to cooperate with NATO countries or even become a NATO member for over 20 years, but was rebuffed for geostrategic reasons mainly by the United States and the United Kingdom, since Russia obviously does not intend to become a Western client state.

图片：2019年，乌克兰总统泽连斯基和乌克兰寡头科洛莫伊斯基。科洛莫伊斯基也被认为是Burisma天然气控股公司的真正所有者，该公司在2014年至2016年间向其“董事会成员”亨特·拜登（时任美国副总统乔·拜登的儿子）支付了数百万美元。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Image: Ukrainian President Zelensky and Ukrainian oligarch Kolomoisky in 2019. Kolomoisky is also believed to be the true owner of the Burisma gas holding, which between 2014 and 2016 paid millions to its ‘board member’ Hunter Biden, son of then US Vice President Joe Biden.


乌克兰总统泽连斯基（中）和乌克兰寡头科洛莫斯基（中右）

Ukrainian President Zelensky (center) and Ukrainian oligarch Kolomoisky (center-right) (Reuters)

媒体和宣传
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Media and Propaganda

2月24日，俄罗斯的入侵立即在全球新闻中取代了持续两年的“致命的新冠病毒大流行”。

The Russian invasion on February 24 immediately and almost completely displaced the two-year “deadly coronavirus pandemic” from global news.

符合美国外交关系协会/北约要求的西方媒体，包括自由派和保守派，立即转入战争宣传模式。总的来说，西方的战争宣传试图掩盖或淡化北约扩张和顿巴斯安全问题，并且试图将俄罗斯的干预描绘成“无端入侵”，同时关注平民伤亡、乌克兰的抵抗和（臆想的）俄罗斯遭遇到的挫折。要了解一些常见的宣传故事的概况，请参见此处的案例。

CFR/NATO compliant Western media, both liberal and conservative, immediately switched into war propaganda mode. Overall, Western war propaganda tries to conceal or downplay the issues of NATO expansion and Donbas security and instead tries to depict the Russian intervention as an “unprovoked invasion” while focusing on civilian casualties, Ukrainian resistance and (supposed) Russian setbacks. To get an overview of some common propaganda stories, see e.g. here and here.

俄罗斯和亲俄媒体则试图将入侵描绘成合法的、几乎是人道主义的干预，有点类似于西方媒体对2011年美国/北约对利比亚和1999年对塞尔维亚的非法战争的描绘。

Russian and pro-Russian media, in turn, try to portray the invasion as a legitimate and almost humanitarian intervention, somewhat similar to the Western media portrayal of the illegal US/NATO wars against Libya in 2011 and against Serbia in 1999.

许多独立媒体讨论了北约扩张、俄罗斯安全利益和乌克兰的附属国或地理人地位等复杂问题，并揭穿了各种战争宣传故事。然而，许多和平主义者和“反帝国主义”的记者，即使同情俄罗斯，也发现自己在俄罗斯的军事干预方面陷入了困难的双重困境。一些曾经的“新冠怀疑论者”，尤其是保守派，很快就与美国/北约的战争宣传保持了一致。

Many independent media outlets have discussed the complex issues of NATO expansion, Russian security interests and the Ukrainian client or proxy status, and have debunked various war propaganda stories. However, many pacifist and ‘anti-imperialist’ journalists, even if sympathetic to Russia, have found themselves in a difficult double bind concerning Russia’s military intervention. Some former “covid skeptics”, especially on the conservative side, quickly aligned themselves with US/NATO war propaganda.

与此同时，约50%的美国选民似乎支持“美国即将加入一场欧洲就乌克兰问题可能爆发的战争”；德国政府设法利用大规模的“反战抗议”，宣布史无前例地增加1000亿欧元的军费开支；瑞士放弃了其200年的中立地位，支持对俄罗斯的制裁。西方的战争宣传还导致了对俄罗斯艺术家、运动员及其在西方国家的平民的攻击和歧视，这些人之前已经被两年多的大肆宣传所残害。

Meanwhile, about 50% of US voters appear to support “the US joining a potential war in Europe over Ukraine”; the German government managed to leverage large “anti-war protests” to announce an unprecedented 100 billion Euro increase in military spending; and Switzerland abandoned its 200-year neutrality to back sanctions against Russia. Western war propaganda has also led to attacks and discrimination against Russian artists, athletes and civilians in Western countries whose citizens have already been brutalized by two years of pandemic propaganda.

最后，乌克兰战争还导致西方国家和俄罗斯的审查制度达到了前所未有的水平，这可以通过使用替代平台、非标准DNS配置和VPN连接来绕过。要快速了解双方使用的主要战争宣传和媒体操纵技术，请了解SPR宣传要点。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Finally, the Ukraine war has also led to an unprecedented level of censorship in both Western countries and in Russia, which can be bypassed by using alternative platforms, non-standard DNS configurations and VPN connections (see here). To get a quick overview of major war propaganda and media manipulation techniques, used by both sides, see the SPR Propaganda Key.

图片：《时代》周刊关于波斯尼亚战争（1995年）和乌克兰战争（2022年）的报道。讽刺的是，一张将普京与希特勒相提并论的假《时代》周刊封面在互联网上疯传。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Image: TIME Magazine on the Bosnia war (1995) and the Ukraine war (2022). Ironically, a fake TIME Magazine cover, comparing Putin to Hitler, has gone viral on the internet.


升级的可能性

Potential for Escalation

虽然乌克兰战争本身已经是地缘政治紧张局势的一次重大升级，但这场战争可能导致进一步的经济或军事升级。

While the Ukraine war itself is already a major escalation of geopolitical tensions, the war could lead to further economic or military escalation.

例如，北约国家可能决定直接或间接干预乌克兰战争；俄罗斯已经警告说，它将以“前所未有的”（即可能是核武器的）方式回应这种企图，即可能会打击德国或波兰等无核国家。

For instance, NATO countries could decide to intervene, directly or indirectly, in the Ukraine war; Russia has already warned that it would respond in an “unprecedented” (i.e. possibly nuclear) way to such attempts, which could hit non-nuclear countries such as Germany or Poland.

乌克兰战争本身可能变成一场旷日持久的叛乱或内战，对邻国或整个欧洲都有潜在影响。

The Ukraine war itself could turn into a protracted insurgency or a civil war with potential implications for neighboring countries or all of Europe.

俄罗斯可能决定将其“非军事化”运动从乌克兰扩大到其他前苏联共和国（如格鲁吉亚或波罗的海国家）或前华沙条约组织成员（如波兰或罗马尼亚，这两个国家都有美国/北约的重要军事基础设施）。

Russia could decide to expand its “demilitarization” campaign from Ukraine to other former Soviet republics (e.g. to Georgia or the Baltic states) or to former Warsaw Pact members (e.g. to Poland or Romania, both of which host important US/NATO military infrastructure).

另一方面，对俄罗斯前所未有的经济和外交制裁可能导致俄罗斯的社会动荡、政权更迭或更多的民族主义。它还可能导致俄罗斯-中国或俄罗斯-伊朗更紧密的联盟。

On the other hand, the unprecedented economic and diplomatic sanctions against Russia could lead to social turmoil, regime change or more nationalism in Russia. It could also lead to a closer Russian-Chinese or Russian-Iranian alliance.

制裁和反制裁还可能导致全球经济的重大不稳定，特别是在金融市场、能源供应、农业和各种金属市场领域。

The sanctions and counter-sanctions could also lead to major global economic instability, especially in the fields of financial markets, energy supply, agriculture and various metals.

俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵也可能成为中国大陆收复台湾或（中国支持的）朝鲜入侵韩国的一个范本。

The Russian invasion of Ukraine might also serve as a template for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or for a (Chinese-backed) North Korean invasion of South Korea.

最后，乌克兰战争有可能被利用来创造一个新的全球“恐怖威胁”，类似于20世纪80年代中央情报局管理的阿富汗战争后建立的“基地组织”，或者加强打击“国内恐怖主义”和国内异见的战争。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Finally, it is possible that the Ukraine war could be leveraged to create a new global “terrorist threat”, similar to the creation of “Al Qaeda” after the CIA-run Afghanistan war in the 1980s, or to enhance the war against “domestic terrorism” and domestic dissent.

在更确定的情况下，乌克兰战争可能导致俄罗斯和北约国家之间新的相互理解和新的地缘政治平衡或合作。