中国人工智能崛起，美国已经落后一步（一）
China Has Won AI Battle With US, Pentagon''s Ex-software Chief Says
译文简介
中国肯定会崛起取代美国，但什么时候才可以？
正文翻译
China has won the artificial intelligence battle with the United States and is heading towards global dominance because of its technological advances, the Pentagon's former software chief told the Financial Times. From a report:
五角大楼前软件部门负责人向英国《金融时报》表示，中国已经赢得了与美国的人工智能的竞争之战，并且中国正在凭借人工智能技术的进步一步步走向新的全球主导地位。以下为具体报道:
China, the world's second largest economy, is likely to dominate many of the key emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, synthetic biology and genetics within a decade or so, according to Western intelligence assessments. Nicolas Chaillan, the Pentagon's first chief software officer who resigned in protest against the slow pace of technological transformation in the U.S. military, said the failure to respond was putting the United States at risk.
根据西方情报机构的评估显示，作为世界第二大经济体，中国很可能在未来十年内主导众多关键的新兴技术，尤其是人工智能、合成生物学和遗传学。尼古拉斯·查兰是五角大楼的首位软件技术负责人，他辞职是为了抗议美国军方技术转型的缓慢步伐。他说军方技术部门未能做出及时的回应，将美国置于极其危险的境地。
根据西方情报机构的评估显示，作为世界第二大经济体，中国很可能在未来十年内主导众多关键的新兴技术，尤其是人工智能、合成生物学和遗传学。尼古拉斯·查兰是五角大楼的首位软件技术负责人，他辞职是为了抗议美国军方技术转型的缓慢步伐。他说军方技术部门未能做出及时的回应，将美国置于极其危险的境地。
"We have no competing fighting chance against China in 15 to 20 years. Right now, it's already a done deal; it is already over in my opinion," he told the newspaper. "Whether it takes a war or not is kind of anecdotal." China was set to dominate the future of the world, controlling everything from media narratives to geopolitics, he said.
“在15到20年之内，我们没有抓住与中国竞争的机会。现在，局势已经成为了定局，在我看来，一切都已经结束了。”“至于是否需要一场战争来解决……目前还只是一个传闻，暂无正式结果。”他连续警告道，中国注定要主宰世界的未来，控制文化到地缘政治的一切。
“在15到20年之内，我们没有抓住与中国竞争的机会。现在，局势已经成为了定局，在我看来，一切都已经结束了。”“至于是否需要一场战争来解决……目前还只是一个传闻，暂无正式结果。”他连续警告道，中国注定要主宰世界的未来，控制文化到地缘政治的一切。
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Ah Shit
Now I have to learn Chinese, no wait its Reuters, never mind.
啊，干！
现在我要学中文了，不，等等，这个消息是路透社发出来的，那不用关心了。
Re:Ah Shit
Actually, most speak English as a 2nd language - when they say bend over you will understand.
然而事实是，中国的大多数人把英语作为第二语言——当他们说“弯腰”的时候，你就会明白现实。
Indeed. Baidu's has big research centers in Seattle and Sunnyvale, California. Many of the people working there are American citizens, so perhaps it is a bit silly to label the innovations from these labs as "Chinese".
Just in case, "bend over" in Mandarin is "Wan yao!'
确实，百度在西雅图和加州森尼维尔都有大型研究中心。在那里工作的许多人都是美国公民，因此，给这些实验室的创新成果也贴上“中国”的标签可能有点愚蠢。
仅仅只是指正一下，“bend over”在普通话里是“弯腰!”
My personal experience in several major and minor Chinese cities says this is not true.
我在中国好几个大城市和小城市的个人经历告诉我，你说的事实并非如此（指前面那个人说的中国人大部分说英语）。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Agreed. If they can all write English, they mostly can't speak it.
我同意，因为他们只是大部分能写英语，可他们大多数都不会说英语。
Unlike most westerners who can barely speak Englishy.
不过大多数的西方人似乎也几乎不会说英语。（欧洲其他国家）
Re：Now I have to learn Chinese
No, you have to learn to steal IP. No, wait; Reuters still thinks "AI" stands for "Artificial Intelligence" (obviously it stands for "Marketing Desperation"); never mind.
不，你得学会如何用当黑客。不，等等，路透社竟然仍然认为“AI”就能完全代表“人工智能”(它更代表“营销绝望”)，大家不要在乎路透社。
No, they have an AI that will translate for you :-)
他们将拥有一个翻译人工智能
不对，说错了，他们会用人工智能来帮你翻译
帝国的正常兴衰而已
has anyone noticed how geographically empires follow the path of the sun (more or less?) starting from babylonia/sumeria, egyptians, greeks, rome, UK, the US and soon China. Also the speed seems to be ever increasing (less time for the duration of each "empire").
有没有人注意到地理上的帝国崛起，很像太阳运转周期的循环(或多或少有关联)，从巴比伦/苏美尔，埃及，希腊，罗马，英国，美国，如今将是中国。而且兴亡速度似乎一直在增加(每个“帝国”的持续时间越来越短)。
by timeOday
"Nothing last forever" is kind of a vapid statement though without naming who and when something will gain or lose prominence. Sure, eventually Amazon will go out of business. And I will die. Eventually. But when?
“没有什么是永恒”是一种乏味的陈述，因为它没有指明什么人、什么时候会变得杰出或失败。当然，我肯定亚马逊最终会破产。我也最终会死。但是……什么时候？言外之意：中国肯定会崛起成为取代美国的帝国，但什么时候才可以？
Cool. How long before we have the British Empire, V2.0?
酷，美国离大英帝国2.0版还有多久？
by Anonymous Coward
"London isn't really an English city," according to John Cleese. And he's absolutely right. Unless they push out the tremendous influx of EU work visa holders, they won't have enough native culture left to be a British Empire, even if they discovered cavorite and became the premiere space power.
“伦敦并不是真正的英国城市，”约翰·克里斯曾经说过。我觉的他说的很正确。
如今，除非他们赶走大量涌入的欧盟工作签证持有者，否则他们将没有足够的本土文化来成为大英帝国，即使他们发现了cavorite并成为第一太空强国也依然不行。
For decades, the not-so-joke has almost always been, there is London, and there is England. And it has nothing to do with the whiteness of the citizenry.
几十年来几乎一直有一个不那么搞笑的说法：因为伦敦存在，英格兰才存在。这和伦敦的公民是否是白种人完全没有任何关系。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
"As always.... England prevails."
“一如既往…英国人胜利。”
The difference between England and London was instrumental in preventing Matilda being crowned queen in ~1140.
英格兰和伦敦之间的区别，是阻止玛蒂尔达在1140年加冕为英国女王的关键原因。
The Mongols would like a word with your theory. After them, probably the Persians, Khmer, Aztec, Inca, and probably several more.
蒙古人肯定想跟你谈谈你的理论。在他们之后，可能是波斯人，高棉人，阿兹特克人，印加人，可能还有更多我可以举例的存在。
by ShanghaiBill
The Mongols would like a word with your theory.
... also, the British reached the top after the decline of the Spanish Empire, which was a shift north and slightly east rather than to the west. Then the crown shifted further east to France under Louis XIV and Napoleon. Then back to Britain after Waterloo.
So plenty of complicated shifting and reversals rather than a steady progression from east to west.
不错，蒙古人想跟你谈谈你的理论。
……此外，英国在西班牙帝国衰落后才开始正式崛起，当时西班牙帝国是向北和稍微向东扩张，而不是向西。随后，在路易十四和拿破仑的统治下，王位进一步向东转移到了法国。然后在滑铁卢战役后回到英国。
所以历史帝国的崛起，有很多复杂的转变和逆转，而不是从东向西的稳定发展。
by anoncoward69
So that means the middle east and Russia are next again after China? By then the middle east will be building nukes like they build IEDs and they'll have nuked the middle east into an inhabitable waste land within a decade.
所以这个理论，将意味着中东和俄罗斯将再次成为中国之后的下一个帝国？到那时，中东将会像他们建造简易爆炸装置那样建造核武器，他们将在十年内把中东变成一个荒地。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Or maybe Biden didnâ(TM)t want to provide Chinese mining companies free security.
中国人已经拥有拜登了
或者拜登只是不想为中国矿业公司提供免费安全保障。
by Antique Geekmeister
> Good bye Taiwan, without a U.S. interested in protecting your anonymity y
可以和台湾省说拜拜了，美国没有兴趣在给你暗中撑腰了
by Aighearach
The US doesn't do a bunch of mining in Afghanistan. What would happen if we tried? Oh, right, terrorists would kill all the workers.
美国在阿富汗并没有进行大量采矿。如果我们尝试大量采矿会发生什么？哦，恐怖分子会杀了所有的工人。
Wait, they are only saying this *NOW*?
It's been the case for the past decade, at least... probably even earlier than that.
等等，他们只是在说“现在”才竞争不过？
我觉的至少在过去十年里一直是这样的……甚至可能更早。
by DarkOx
Its not news this is the guy dufus that said he could fix all the problems in six months. Now I am not saying current state of things and the degree of progress should be described as anything but abysmal; but anyone who knows as much about and had as much experience in "enterprise IT" as he claims knows you don't fix all of the pentagons IT security problems in six months, at least not without creating bigger operational risk than you had to start with.
这根本不能当新闻，这个笨蛋说他能在六个月内解决所有问题。
我并不是说目前的状况不应该被描述为糟糕透顶，但任何一个像他所声称的那样对“企业IT”了解和有丰富经验的人都知道，你不可能在6个月内解决五角大楼所有的IT安全问题，至少如果想要在不产生比以前更大风险的基础下，是不可能这么快解决所有问题的。
也许他确实有一些好主意，但我也坦白地说，整件事看起来就像一个酸葡萄在抱怨：“如果每个人都听我的，如果把我想做的事情放在第一位，我就会变得很棒!”Chaillan并不是一个优秀的五角大楼官员，而且他也可能并不适合构建软件安全程序，因为这个岗位更多的是过程怎么做，而不是我们的技术存在问题。他没有早点被赶出去的事实，恰恰说明了五角大楼如今的安全制度有多糟糕。
The reason has less to do with AI in particular and more to do with just straight-up-technology. China has completely trounced the US in this regard, and barring some kind of completely unforeseen domestic breakthrough, being a leader in AI is really just but one of the implications.
五角大楼的问题与人工智能其实并没有太大关系，更多的是与直接应用技术有关。而在相关技术方面，中国已经完全击败了美国，除非我们国内突然出现某种完全不可预见的重大突破，否则中国成为人工智能领域的领导者，真的只是其中一个必定的影响。
If they do have or soon obtain a convincing lead on self-driving cars that would be very significant. That's the most significant AI application of the first half of the 21st century I think... very difficult but with the potential to save over a million lives every year.
如果他们真的在自动驾驶汽车方面，取得或即将取得令人信服的领先优势，那将是非常重要的事情。我认为这是21世纪上半叶最重要的人工智能应用……因为非常困难，它每年有可能可以拯救100多万人的生命。
It sounds like a call for more Pentagon funding for AI.
Its reminiscent of the 1960s/70s coming Russian dominance in Air Superiority via the MiG-25 Foxbat stories. Stories that loosened Congressional purse strings for the F-15 and F-14 projects.
至于这个新闻只是五角大楼的资金骗局
这听起来更像是在呼吁五角大楼为人工智能提供更多资金。
这让人想起了上世纪60 /70年代，俄罗斯通过米格-25战斗机在空中优势方面取得优势的故事，让美国国会放宽了对F-15和F-14项目的资金限制。
Correct. DARPA was formed as a direct result of the Sputnik scare. Where is the new DARPA now? Maybe just we haven't witnessed China's Sputnik moment yet.
我也赞同楼上的看法。因为历史上美国国防部高级研究计划局的成立是人造卫星恐慌的直接结果，新的DARPA现在在哪里？也许只是我们还没有见证中国的“人造卫星（起飞）”时刻。
by AmiMoJo
AI is just algorithms and datasets.
That's why China is ahead, they have moved beyond just training adversarial networks on big datasets.
Google was warned about this by their head of AI, who they fired seemingly in retaliation. Algos and datasets does produce some useful and impressive results, but it's never going to produce a general purpose AI. For example we have seen novels written by that kind of AI and they make little sense, even if the sequences of words by themselves meet grammar rules and sound like fragments of other works stitched together.
人工智能只是算法和数据集。
这些才是中国领先的原因，他们已经不仅仅是在大数据集上训练网络对抗了。
谷歌是被他们的AI负责人警告的，似乎是为了报复，他们解雇了负责人。算法和数据集确实会产生一些有用和令人印象深刻的结果，但它永远不会产生一个通用的人工智能。例如，我们已经看到了由这种人工智能编写的小说，但这些小说几乎没有任何意义，即使单词本身的序列符合语法规则，听起来也依然像是在拼凑其他作品的碎片内容。
砍断他们的膝盖
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Institute a program that emphasizes imports from non-China, and watch China's economy tank in 5-10 yrs.
Also, "borrow" their tech, just like they've been "borrowing" ours for decades now.
现在专门建立一个针对“非中国进口”的计划，然后我们就能坐等中国经济在5-10年后的衰退。
还有，“借用”他们的技术，就像他们几十年来一直在“借用”我们的一样。
by Anonymous
"Institute a program". Yeah, kind of like "publish woke superheroes like Snowflake and Safespace to usher in a new generation of comics". In the real world, you lose money and go out of business *real fast* pulling that social justice warrior political nonsense. Or better, start a busness plan founded on "inclusion" rather than producing an actual product or service people want.
“专门针对计划”？无语，你说的这个有点像“发布如Snowflake and Safespace这样的新超级英雄，重新引领新一代的漫画”。（嘴炮牛逼却无用）
但在现实世界中，你会因为那些社会正义斗士的政治废话而赔钱并“很快”破产。或者更好计划的是，现在我们就开始建立一个在“包容”基础上的商业计划，然后共同生产人们真正想要的产品或服务。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
So what's *your* plan??
So what's your master plan, Anonymous "Genius"?? Because I can't help but notice the severe lack of any useful information or suggestions in your shitpost.
Oh right, I forgot - you're just a russian agent posting using a sockpuppet account, right?
那么你的计划是什么？？
你的大计划是什么，匿名的"天才"？因为我注意到你的垃圾帖子里根本没有任何有用的信息或建议。
对了，我忘了，你只是个俄罗斯特工用马甲账号发帖，对吧？
It's reasonable to advise someone not to stick their face in a fire without offering up an alternative.
在无法提供其他好选择的情况下，建议某人不要玩火烧脸才是最合适的做法。
Pentagon wants more money.
五角大楼想要更多的钱。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
And I was going to say "great, sounds like we can go ahead cut the military budget to pay for health care."
我只想说："很好，听起来我们好像可以继续削减军事预算来支付医疗保健了"
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Nicolas Chaillan was not Pentagon's software chief
He was not "software chief" for the Pentagon. "Mr. Nicolas Chaillan, a highly qualified expert, is appointed as the first Air Force Chief Software Officer, under Dr. William Roper, the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics, Arlington, Virginia... The Chief Software Officer works with the Program Executive Officers and is responsible for analyzing current software and cloud migration plans to avoid vendor lock-ins while allowing for rapid prototyping and a streamlined process for deployment. To keep up with the pace of technology, Mr. Chaillan uates and authorizes new commercially available off-the-shelf software and cloud-related technologies to help with their adoption across various Air Force programs based on their mission needs." https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Bi... [af.mil] He is good at promoting himself and does not need a boost from headlines that seem to elevate him and his role(s).
Nicolas Chaillan不是五角大楼的“软件部长”。
Nicolas Chaillan先生是一名专业合格的专家，他被任命为第一任空军首席软件官，William Roper博士负责空军采购，技术和后勤助理部长，在弗吉尼亚州……简历，不翻了，意思就是说这个人品德高尚，不需要危言耸听来吸引目光
Like every empire, once a certain size is reached, and once a certain level of average wealth is reached, external opponents become the lesser of dangers to those in power. Look how busy the Chinese KP is already suppressing any upcoming domestic "tech giants", or how they struggle to keep their youth in line with living to work instead of working to live.
如同每个帝国一样，一旦帝国达到一定的规模，一旦帝国社会达到一定的平均财富水平，外部对手对当权者的威胁就会变小。看看中国人现在有多忙，他们已经在压制任何即将到来的国内“科技巨头”，或者他们在努力让中国的年轻人为了工作而生活，而不是为了生活而工作。
在我看来，中国让他们的人工智能机器人战士“进入”西方国家，对我们自由的威胁似乎比西方政府复制中国的做事方法，来满足各国政府对权力的渴望要小得多。
and will need more funding.
I'm sure the two are unconnected.
军方说我们要输掉一场竞争时，就意味着他们需要更多的资金。
我确信这两者没有关联。
Somebody above posted the same thing but I don't see how this story supports or even fits that particular narrative. Chaillan is out. He quit. It says it's too late and all over.
上面有人也发表了同样的看法，但我看不出这个看法有什么用。Chaillan离职了，他辞职了，也就是说我们一切都太晚了。
The PLA might have AI, but they have no real data to feed that AI.
Just look at what's happening on the India/Chinese border: they're attacking each other with sticks and rocks. That's going to be a great input for their ML system when it comes to fighting a real conflict, for sure.
中国可能有人工智能，但他们肯定没有真实的数据来支撑人工智能。
看看中印边境发生了什么:他们用棍棒和石头互相攻击。这对他们的ML系统来说是一个很好的数据，以后处理涉及真正的冲突时的数据，我很确定（嘲讽）。
LOL, that's a Luckyo level of understanding.
China doesn't have freedom and privacy like the west does. They can collect any datasets they like. And they do.
China and India did the sticks and stones on purpose so those kinds of things wouldn't escalate.
哈哈，这是搞笑级别的理解。
中国不像西方那样放纵自由和过度隐私，他们可以收集任何他们喜欢的数据集，做他们喜欢做的事。
中国和印度故意使用棍棒和石头，是因为这样做不会导致冲突升级。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Surprise!
It is only recently that being clever in America has become somewhat socially acceptable but certainly teachers, scientists and engineers are very undervalued. IT seems to be a little more valued than engineering, but only because Joe Public has no actual idea what it entails, just that lots of kids seem to be able to drive Lamborghinis! So what I'm trying to get at... when US society places so little value on education, is it surprising that a country with over a billion population and a government made up of STEM graduates might pull ahead?
震惊！
直到最近，大力培养教师、科学家和工程师的做法更聪明，在美国才在一定程度上被社会所接受，过去一直被无视。程序员似乎比工程师更有价值，但只是因为Joe Public没有实际的概念，只是很多孩子更喜欢开兰博基尼！
所以我真正想说的是…在美国社会如此不重视教育的情况下，一个拥有超过10亿人口、政府由STEM毕业生组成的国家可能在未来处于领先地位，这难道很令人惊讶吗？
Please share whatever you're smoking.
请告诉我你抽的是什么。（烟？大麻？飘了？）
What if the STEM graduates worked like Jack Welch, PhD Chem. Engr.?
如果STEM毕业生像杰克·韦尔奇那样工作呢？
I've never heard of an IT guy getting more respect than an engineer, but OK.
我从来没听说过哪个IT人会比工程师更受尊重，不过无所谓了。
Funny that mainland Chinese who feel sorry for their kids send them to American undergrad schools. because it's just sooo much easier. In China students have basically no life, they study 18-20 hours per day.
有趣的很，那些为自己的孩子感到遗憾的中国人（这里直译），喜欢把他们的孩子送到美国来读本科。因为来美国上本科远比中国简单。而在中国，学生基本上没有其他生活，他们每天需要学习18-20个小时。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处